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Cody Pirkl

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Blog Entries posted by Cody Pirkl

  1. Cody Pirkl
    Late last night we heard rumblings of a deal held up due to a questionable physical between the players exchanged with the Dodgers, Red Sox and Twins. This morning we found this to be true, as Ken Rosenthal confirmed. The deal is currently in limbo, as we wait to find out the next step between the teams exchanging Mookie Betts, David Price, Kenta Maeda and Brusdar Graterol.
     
    Rosenthal reports today that the physical in question is that of Brusdar Graterol's. What is truly ridiculous is the wording given behind the hold up. Essentially Rosenthal reports that the Red Sox have decided that they see Graterol as a reliever long term. Totally fine. What's the next step the Red Sox take however? Of course, they're asking for more.
     
    Graterol was already reported to be Boston's number one prospect if the deal went through. The 21 year old flamethrower hovered around the 3-5 mark in the Twins system. They also received Alex Verdugo, a 23 year old who put up 2.2 wins in only 106 games last season. It may not seem like a lot for Mookie Betts and David Price, but Boston stands to lose Bett's for nothing but a draft pick. As for Price, his injury history is arguably worse than Graterol's, with the difference being that he's 34 and owed almost $100m over the next 3 years, all to be paid by the Dodgers if the deal goes through.
     
    The Red Sox have watched teams around them improve all offseason. Meanwhile, it seems that their goal has been to offload Betts. They even brought the Twins in on it to be a third team to make things work. They likely identified a piece they wanted in return, ultimately being Graterol. His injury history was public knowledge up to this point. The Twins even announced that they were using him in the bullpen going forward. Seems pretty ridiculous to me that they get down to dotting the i's and crossing the t's and all of a sudden have an issue with all of this.
     
    This leads me to my point for writing this other than to rant about the Sox trying to gouge our Twins farm system. I love Kenta Maeda and was very excited to have him pitching in a Twins jersey. That being said, he's projected to slot in as our number 3. Very valuable, but there's a cap on that value. I also love Graterol and was sad to see him go. I believed it was a fair trade, though I recognized that there was a chance the Twins already regret the trade down the line.
     
    The Twins were already projected to win the Central fairly handily before acquiring Maeda. Maeda however, didn't even move the needle that much.
     

     
    The Twins were trying to be active in the trade market, but this isn't a bona fide ace that's fallen into their lap. The front office shouldn't be pressured to feel like this is a deal that needs to be done at all costs. Worst case scenario, Graterol is throwing 100 mph gas out of the bullpen to open the season and we continue to pursue trades elsewhere.
     
    For the Red Sox to ask for more than Verdugo and what would be their number 1 pitching prospect, a 21 year old flamethrower who's already showcased his ability to get outs at the Major League level, is ridiculous. They're likely sitting in 3rd place in the east in 2020 with little salary space to work with (which they suddenly care about). They're in no position to decide a top prospect's future mid trade and demand more.
     
    If the Red Sox want to play hard ball and pretend they hold all the cards, I say let them. Let them try to compete with the Yankees and Rays who make active attempts to get better while the Sox sit dormant for the next 3 offseasons while being weighed down by the remaining $96m owed to the 34 year old David Price. Let them enjoy one last season of Mookie Betts before cashing him in for a draft pick. Don't offer another piece, whether it's cash or a prospect. If Graterol is wearing a Twins jersey to start 2020, that's far from a failure.
  2. Cody Pirkl
    A lot has been made of Jorge Polanco's rough defense this season, and rightfully so. His fielding percentage was the worst of his career aside from 2018, where he only played about half of the innings. His 22 errors were second worst among shortstops only to Tim Anderson. I think 2020 holds an opportunity for improvement however, as Polanco recovers from injury and continues to develop defensively.
     
    In some ways, Jorge Polanco's defense has already progressed. Defensive metrics are far from a perfectly understood science, but Polanco graded out positively in defensive runs saved for the first time since his debut season which only included 12 innings played at the shortstop position. I believe this may be a result of simple defensive positioning as we see shifts become more prevalent in baseball. The data becoming available also allows the Twins to line Polanco up efficiently to complement Sano's range inefficiencies at 3B. While I believe these statistics could continue to evolve and allow for even more improvement to Polanco's defense in 2020, I'm confident that there's more to his possible improvement up the middle.
     
    You may have forgotten, but Polanco's status coming into 2019 was in question. So much so in fact, that The Twins flew Ronald Torreyes to the Twin Cities for opening day in case Polanco wasn't ready to play. He came out of spring training with what was described as "shoulder fatigue".
     

     
    The reason I looked back on this was because Polanco's defensive struggles had a lot to do with his arm in 2019. Of Polanco's 22 errors, 13 of them were misfires on throws. Despite his career long struggles at shortstop, this was the first time throwing errors have made up such a significant percentage of Polanco's mistakes. As we know, Polanco was ready to play on opening day and went on to grind out 142 games at shortstop. While Polanco was on the field more consistently than most of our lineup, there's no way that he didn't struggle through an undisclosed injury or two throughout the year. I'd guess he played through the remnants of his shoulder fatigue to start the year, and it's certainly possible that he had it pop up again later on. This could have easily accounted for some of the many throws in the dirt we saw in 2019. Perhaps a spring without shoulder troubles is results in less throwing errors in 2020.
     
    Polanco's ankle surgery at the end of 2020 also shouldn't be swept under the rug.
     

     
    An ankle impingement for a shortstop could be debilitating when pivoting and shifting directions. We don't really know how long this ankle had hampered Polanco's play. Several defensive metrics were the worst Polanco has had in recent years when you would think that a 26 year old would still be athletic and improving at his position. Ultimate zone rating (UZR) is a Fangraphs metric that essentially cuts the playing field into "zones" and assigns that zone to a corresponding position player to cover. Polanco saw his UZR drop to -9.1, suggesting Polanco was atrocious at covering the the full range of an average shortstop. While still below average, his -3.9 in 2018 and -4.7 in 2017 (his last full season at shortstop) were much better than this season when I would have expected him to have improved. He improved this metric each year from 2016-2018. Could a bum ankle have quietly effected Polanco's range in 2019?
     
    Baseball is an unpredictable game. Defensive metrics are far from perfect and can commonly vary from year to year. Injuries can appear seemingly out of nowhere and can linger until properly addressed. Polanco appears to be on track for spring training in 2020 and will hopefully open the year healthy as opposed to 2019. With his physical issues addressed and the stats department ever improving, might we see a surprisingly strong showing from our shortstop in 2020?
  3. Cody Pirkl

    Waiting May Hurt

    By Cody Pirkl,

    Tonight we received the news that Eric Thames had signed with the Washington Nationals for the VERY reasonable price of $4m. Thames put together a slash line of .247/346/.505 last season, as well as 1.9 fWAR. He was likely a secondary option for the Minnesota Twins this offseason, who in my opinion very much still in need of a corner infielder after seeing C.J. Cron sign with the Tigers for $6.1m. First base was always a position the Twins were likely to wait on filling, as there were plenty of options on the market. Thames could have admirably platooned with his .877 OPS against righties. As somebody who had already moved on from Donaldson, I wondered why the Twins would allow Thames to go for such a cheap price. Shortly thereafter, I got my answer.
     
    According to Darren Wolfson, the Twins do not appear to be engaged in the corner infield market.
     

     
    In my opinion, there are two reasons this may be the case.
     
    The first is the most likely in my opinion. Josh Donaldson remains on the free agent market. It may be fair to say that the Washington Nationals are out of the bidding war after signing Starlin Castro, Asdrubal Cabrera, and finally Eric Thames. The bigger issue however is the Atlanta Braves involvement. Donaldson has grown up in the area and has been up front about his desire to return in 2020. The last update on the situation had all teams offering 4 years for undisclosed amounts to lock Donaldson up. As we've seen this offseason however, the price may become a moot point to some extent. In fact, it has now been reported that Donaldson may not have any interest in signing with the Twins at all.
     

     
    As I had worried throughout this entire saga, Donaldson may have just been using the Twins to bulk his offer up from the Braves. This report also explains that the Twins are exploring other options, which is perplexing given the above report from Wolfson. It appears the Twins aren't willing to let go of hope of signing Donaldson after making no progress on the "impact" talent acquisition mentioned at the start of the offseason.
     
    The second scenario for the Twins passing over the corner infield free agent market is a more troubling one for me. There have been rumblings of the Twins using Marwin Gonzalez as a full time first baseman this winter, and they could be content with their internal options rather than spending in free agency. I had actually just written a blog on Marwin Gonzalez having a better year offensively in 2020 citing a full spring training and hopefully less injuries. I was not advocating however that he be given a full time role as a corner infielder. With league average wRC+ coming in at 100, Marwin was 7% worse in 2019 with 93. The bar to clear for "league average" on offense is higher for corner infield as a position that typically houses premier hitters. Even if Marwin rebounds to a bit above league average on offense in 2020, they will still likely have an offensively below average first baseman. On top of that, he would no longer be utilized so widely on the field, which has been his main source of value in his career. They will essentially be taking value away from the roster to fill a spot that they could have easily done more effectively in free agency.
     
    Regardless of reason, the thoughts above remain true. If the Twins don't sign another corner infielder and get stuck with internal options for a premier position like 1B, this will be yet another failure this offseason. Unlike with Bumgarner and Wheeler, this will have been an avoidable one. The offense will no doubt regress to some extent. The rotation is already an injury away from being a mess again. Every roster spot that we put a bandaid on instead of seriously addressing is another opportunity for the teams in the AL Central. If the Donaldson decision is holding up other deals, it's time to come to a conclusion one way or another. If the Twins front office believes they have their man already for corner infield, I seriously doubt it, but we'll have to wait and see. One thing is for certain though. Sitting here in January coming off 101 wins with over $10m less in payroll and this roster is not what I had pictured in October.
  4. Cody Pirkl
    2019 was a fun year for so many reasons. Our Minnesota Twins fielded a historically great offense, bashing teams into submission for the entirety of the regular season. We watched huge homeruns soar out of Target Field, we watched clutch performances from our workhorses like Jose Berrios, as well as game ending dominant performances from Taylor Rogers. 2019 will be a year of fantastic Twins memories for me. Looking back on it however, no memory is quite as vivid to me as Devin Smeltzer's debut for some reason.
     
    Smeltzer was acquired at the trade deadline in 2018 along with Luke Raley for Brian Dozier. Twins fans were sad, Dodgers fans were happy, just another year for Minnesota sports fans. As 2019 rolled on however, we started to see that we hadn't just given Dozier away for peanuts. Smeltzer rifled through AA after 30 innings. Apparently a .60 ERA was enough to get a promotion. In AAA, Smeltzer fared well, pitching to a 3.63 ERA and respectable 23.2 K%. When the Twins were in need of a spot start on May 28th, Smeltzer got the call.
     
    Smeltzer was tasked with facing a vaunted Brewers lineup. The big storyline as you have all likely heard by now was that Devin Smeltzer, a childhood cancer survivor, had fought his way into the major leagues. It was about as fantastic of a storyline you'll find in the MLB, and that paired with my excitement to see the individual behind the gaudy numbers he had put up in the minors, I was glued to that couch cushion for this one. He went on to allow 3 hits over 6 innings, striking out 7 Brewers that night.
     
    Smeltzer would finish the year cycling in and out of the rotation, as Pineda's suspension and Kyle Gibson's illness left plenty of innings to fill. He would finish the season with a 3.86 ERA and 4.58 FIP. He had a tougher time striking out hitters at the major league level, sending only 18.8% of the batters he faced down on strikes. This along with his difficulty with the longball (1.47/9) were the reason for the discrepancy in his ERA and FIP.
     
    Smeltzer was used in a few roles as the season went on. He accumulated 30.2 innings pitched as a starter, finishing with a 4.11 ERA and holding opposing hitters to a .239/.294.410 slash line. As a reliever in 18.1 innings, Smeltzer had a seemingly better 3.44 ERA, although this appeared to be questionable given his triple slash allowed of .306/.342/.556. Let's also not forget the 3.1 innings of 2 hits 4 Ks, and no runs against the Yankees out of the bullpen in the playoffs.
     
    Looking ahead to 2020, Devin Smeltzer's role is up in the air. He comes off a relatively strong rookie season. While some peripherals say he overperformed, he also has some favorable Statcast number with his fastball spin rate falling into the 87th percentile, as well as a curveball in the 81st percentile. Would these measurements be best maximized in the traditional starter role we saw Smeltzer debut in? As it stands, there are two rotation spots open for the combination of Dobnak, Thorpe, and Smeltzer until Rich Hill returns from injury and Michael Pineda comes off his suspension. Even if Smeltzer gets the short end of the stick for a rotation spot, he can begin the season in AAA to stay stretched out until we need him (A strong possibility after what we've seen in 2019). Would Smeltzer's skill set play up in a bullpen role? The Twins still lack a lefty other than Taylor Rogers in the bullpen. Where would you like to see Devin Smeltzer in 2020 for our Minnesota Twins?
     
    I would also like to take this opportunity to share the link to Devin Smeltzer's ongoing fundraising for pediatric cancer. As a childhood cancer survivor himself, Devin has set up a page of awesome merchandise where the proceeds go to Katie's Krusaders, a foundation that funds expenses for pediatric cancer patients. This program made headlines a few months ago, but I wanted to make sure people are aware of the great work Devin does off the field, which can be lost in the shuffle when you're tuning into what he does on the field.
     
    https://www.500level.com/collections/devin-smeltzer-catch-cancer-looking
  5. Cody Pirkl
    Marwin Gonzalez was an absolute God send in 2019 for the Minnesota Twins. The front office locked up the utility man on February 25th to a 2 year $21 million contract. His ability to play all over the diamond was priceless as it turned out, as we saw him start the year at 3B to fill in for an injured Sano. We saw him go on to fill in all over the field as we saw injuries from C.J. Cron, Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, as well as plenty others. Marwin's value goes beyond the statistics. The Twins would have been lost without him in 2019, who despite the depth and versatility within the organization, found themselves relying on guys like Ronald Torreyes down the stretch as the injuries piled up. Despite the value Marwin Gonzalez provided in 2019, I think there's reason to believe that his 2020 could prove to be even more valuable.
     
    As previously mentioned, Gonzalez was signed on February 25th, two days after the Twins began their spring training games.
     

     
    The slow progression of the free agent market caused him to wait around on a longer term contract that would never come. The Twins being ever opportunistic, took advantage of the market and signed Gonzalez to a team friendly deal. Gonzalez had waited long enough. He reported right away, but still had to ramp up before being game ready. When he finally did finish playing catchup, he managed a line of .115/.179/.397 by the end of the spring. He had struck out in 13 of his 26 at bats. We hear all the time about the importance of the spring training routine for pitching, but why wouldn't the same be true for hitting? Gonzalez had a triple slash of .167/.244/.256 through the first month of the season, good for a 33 wRC+. He struck out about 24% of the time. His offseason was clearly out of the ordinary for him to that point in his career, and his spring training was a rushed and shortened experience that I would argue carried into the season. 2020 is an opportunity for Marwin to settle in and have a normal spring training again, hopefully leading to a more consistent start to the season.
     
    At just 30 years old, Marwin shouldn't be on the decline quite yet. His 93 wRC+ however was his worst since 2016, and well below the benchmark he had set for himself on average over the last 5 years. When looking at why this may have been, I saw that Marwin had an IL stint from 6/19-6/29 for a hamstring injury. This itself is an injury that's known to linger for what can be weeks. I was searching however for the IL stint for the oblique injury I remembered Marwin having, but it doesn't exist. He was scratched on September 24th as a precautionary measure for an oblique injury having played in 6 of the last 8 games. However, he didn't play a single game from August 28th-September 15th for the same oblique injury. He was likely playing through this oblique strain (those are not fun) for weeks.
     
    Marwin's 2019 was far from a lost season. He was worth 1.4 wins according to fangraphs measures and filled in admirably at just about every position. He's likely to be the same super utility man in 2020 as well, as the Twins are returning a solid lineup only currently missing a full time corner infielder. While he will be another year older, Marwin Gonzalez stands to benefit from the normal spring training routine this year unlike in 2019. Not only might this get him more prepared to perform come the regular season, it may even mean he will be in better shape to avoid the soft tissue injuries that plagued him in 2020. Despite the rough start mentioned above, from April 29th forward Marwin seemed to get back into the swing of things to the tune of a .283/.337/.446 triple slash. Penciling that into the bottom 1/3 of our lineup is simply ridiculous, and I believe that in 2020 we will see Marwin Gonzalez thrive in a similar way for much of the season.
  6. Cody Pirkl

    Jimmy for the Back End

    By Cody Pirkl,

    As December winds down, the Minnesota Twins have two established starters in their rotation penciled in for opening day. As Michael Pineda serves his remaining 39 games of suspension, the Twins will look to fill those innings with more than the 2019 group of rookies consisting of Dobnak, Smeltzer and Thorpe. I am still a believer in the front offices ability to swing a trade that brings in the prized arm that we've been hoping for all winter. However, I am 100% certain that we will see them take some dart throws on a pitcher or two to fill in or cover the back end of the rotation. In 2019 we saw them sign Martin Perez who despite his struggles to finish the season, set the world on fire to begin the year. A similar reclamation project I would love to see the Twins make for 2020 is Jimmy Nelson from the Brewers.
     
    Jimmy Nelson had a career year in 2017, striking out 10.21/9 and only walking 2.46. While it admittedly wasn't anything like the year of the juiced ball in 2019, his .82 HR/9 was absurd. He finished with a 3.49 ERA and 3.05 FIP and an fWAR of 4.8 in 175.1 innings. It was his third consecutive year of 175+ innings pitched. So why haven't we heard Jimmy Nelson's name in 2018 and 2019?
     
    Jimmy Nelson was running the bases on September 8th 2017 when he had to dive back into first base, tearing his rotator cuff and labrum in his shoulder. Just like that the Brewers lost their ace for the remainder of the season. It's a devastating injury for a pitcher, and wound up costing Nelson his 2018 and most of 2019 season as well. His return to the mound didn't inspire much confidence in the Brewers for the price he was due to earn, as they non tendered him, leaving him as a free agent.
     
    Nelson's 2019 was ugly to say the least. He walked 6.95/9, allowed a crippling 1.64 HR/9, leading to a 6.95 ERA. It was a lost season for Nelson. I can't lie and say I have confidence in Nelson's 2020 bounceback looking at those numbers, but I do think he would be worth the low risk gamble. A high walk rate isn't completely unexpected following an almost two year layoff. While his average FB velocity was down almost 2 MPH from his last full season, his 10.64 K/9 suggests the talent is still in there somewhere, as visually represented by a rehab start from earlier in 2019.
     

     
    Jimmy Nelson is still only 30 years old and should still have plenty in the tank if that shoulder is healthy, which it appeared to be in 2019 despite poor results. He would likely be healthy for the start of spring training and may benefit from his first regular preseason routine since 2017. The Twins coaching staff would likely afford him plenty of rest as we've seen in the past, and may be able to offer some adjustments as he continues to build back into a reliable pitcher. To expect another 2017 Jimmy Nelson is a mistake, but the Twins need innings, especially to begin the season. Whether you like where the rotation is at or not, it's time to consider these options at the back end. In terms of pitchers in Nelson's tier of lottery picks that would cost little and have little expectation, Nelson is the most exciting option. It would tell me our front office has identified potential in a pitcher who was previously very successful but whose numbers have suffered due to injury. Announcement of a Jimmy Nelson signing wouldn't do much to silence the fears of fans, but I would love to let him compete for a spot at the back end of our rotation in 2020. What do you think?
  7. Cody Pirkl
    The beginning of the offseason was a time of hope and optimism. The Twins were coming off of 101 wins with their most prominent need being starting pitching in one of the most pitching rich offseasons in recent memory. Nobody expected a contract luring Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg to Minnesota, but there was hope that we could acquire a starting pitcher that would at least push Odorizzi in the rotation down one spot, some form of an ace to pair with Berrios. As I write this on December 27th, this kind of pitcher has not yet been acquired, nor has any starting pitching that was not in the organization in 2019. While the fan base's frustrations boil over, I wanted shine some light on a player that was a true star of the 2019 Minnesota Twins.
     
    I'm not much of a "best shape of his life" truther, but rumblings of the potential for Odorizzi's impressive 2019 began in the offseason when reports surfaced that he had changed his workout routine to improve his ailing back. This report was expanded upon later throughout the season by Dan Hayes of the Athletic.
     

     
    Odorizzi showed a lot of dedication, and while this report may sound ridiculous, the results have spoken for themselves. Odorizzi finished the season with a 10.08 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.91 HR/9, 3.51 ERA and 3.36 FIP. Those numbers may have been even better had he not suffered from a blister mid season that really inflated his numbers in a short period of time, capped off by the famous 5 IP 9 ER against the Yankees on 7/24. After returning from his blister, he righted the ship to the tune of 2.89 ERA to finish the season.
     
    I think Odorizzi's performance in game 3 in 2019 goes unnoticed since we lost. In an elimination game, Odorizzi threw 5 innings of 2 run ball, striking out 5 and walking none against a patient Yankee lineup that dismantled just about every other pitcher they'd seen to that point. The Twins were on the ropes, and Odorizzi was nails. He exited with the game well within reach despite a Twins lineup that had squandered several opportunities to that point. Odorizzi showed that he was up to the task of facing any lineup in the major leagues not just in the regular season where he dominated, but in a postseason setting with the season on the line.
     
    In a perfect world, the Twins do still acquire a number 1 starter, although it looks increasingly likely that this will have to come via trade with top options leaving the free agency market. I still advocate for the front office to not only look for this addition, but to also add to the back end to not be as dependent on last year's rookies in the regular season. However, we as fans often discount the value of the numbers our teams players put up because of how we watch them all year and see the bad just as much as the good. Let's say the Twins signed an unnamed pitcher to a 1 year deal who put up Odorizzi's numbers in 2019. How excited would you be to slot this player between Berrios and Pineda in 2020? In my opinion, those numbers aren't a bonafide ace, but you feel great sending that pitcher out every fifth day, including the playoffs.
     
    The doom and gloom among fans that has crept in has only grown while watching the teams around us add players, and I think it's gotten to a good point in the offseason to appreciate the players we already have suiting up for our AL Central champions in 2020. Teams like the White Sox are no doubt improving their team, but the bench mark set by the Twins impressive roster of returning players will be hard to reach.
  8. Cody Pirkl
    I've decided to continue exploring the trade market on the outside of the top tier today, just as I recently had with Marco Gonzales. This one in particular may take a leap of faith. I want to make a case for pulling off a trade for Chris Archer.
     
    Chris Archer's fall from relative acedom has been quick and severe. You would never guess that he was a quality starter as recently as last season by many measures. He has become the poster boy of the laughingstock trade the Pirates made in 2018 that included a return of Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and significant prospect capital for the Rays. To say Archer stumbled in 2019, his first full season as a Pirate would be an understatement. He had a career worst ERA supported by his peripherals, likely as a result of a career worst BB/9 (4.14) and HR/9 (1.88) His groundball rate dropped by 8% from 2018 to 2019, a terrible strategy in the season of the juice ball. Archer did not even approach 150 innings for the first time since 2013. Even his durability as a starting pitcher was nowhere to be seen despite him only being 31 years old.
     
    What could cause all of these changes for a pitcher who was rather effective for years before coming to Pittsburgh? Well the pitch mix tells an interesting story. Archer threw his slider less than he has any year since 2014 in favor of the fastball which was down a tick from 2018 to 94.2. This is a pitch that has been absolutely punished recently, producing a positive pitch vaue last in 2014. Archer has always been known for his devastating slider, and even in a 2019 season where he was tagged, it was by far his best pitch despite being thrown about 6% less.
     
    The fix I have is fairly unimaginative for Archer. After watching our coaching staff oversee so many steps forward in pitching last season, I would love to see them get a crack at Archer. Ray Searage was once known as a pitching guru and helped revive the careers of pitchers like Francisco Liriano, A.J. Burnett, as well as others. However, Searage more recently was let go from his job. We've seen Charlie Morton leave Pittsburgh and become a Cy Young candidate, Tyler Glasnow appears to have been held back in the black and gold as well. I'm not even going to get into Gerrit Cole. Archer may just not be the kind of pitcher that Ray Searage can improve. I may even argue that there's a possibility that he made him worse. 2019 was an all out aberration for Archer, who is due $20 million over the next two seasons where he will be 31 and 32 years old. This is an opportunity to buy about as low as can be. The Pirates wouldn't ask much for Archer in the way of prospects, as they look to shed payroll at the start of a lengthy rebuild.
     
    Chris Archer's collapse parallels with his move to Pittsburgh, where he was overseen by a pitching coach who has commonly been accused of being passed over by analytics and the new age of pitching. His pitch mix changed ever so slightly in a season where we saw several career worsts. Amidst all of this, he still struck out 10.75 batters per 9, showing off his skills that appear to still be there. While he may also not be the big name Twins fans are looking for, he still has considerable upside. At the very least he has proven to be durable in just about every season until he sat out the end of 2019 with shoulder inflammation. If you believe in this coaching staff as much as I do, Chris Archer should be somebody to get excited about. I think the Pirates can survive one more terrible trade.
  9. Cody Pirkl
    Today I'm not going to try to sell you guys a top of the rotation arm that we could trade for. We've seen our fair share of coverage on David Price, Yu Darvish, etc. Instead I wanted to talk about an under the radar move for a valuable pitcher. Despite the criticism among fans for this team's failure to land the big fish, it's the exact kind of move that this front office loves to make. We need arms in this rotation. Not just for Pineda's month plus absence to begin the season, but down the stretch. Enter Marco Gonzales.
     
    Marco Gonzales was acquired from the Cardinals by Seattle in 2017 and didn't have himself a banner year. The soft tossing lefty pitched to the tune of a 6.08 ERA in 40 innings combined between the two teams. However, he rebounded in 2018, throwing 166 innings with an ERA at 4.00 on the nose and peripherals that showed encouraging signs. In truly uncommon fashion in 2019, Marco Gonzales delivers the ball to the plate at just under 90 MPH, sitting at 89.3. Despite this, his sinker was his second best pitch at 3.8 pVAL. He complements this with a cutter, curveball, and his best pitch, the changeup. His 6.52 K/9 won't excite you, but his 1.02 HR/9 and near 41% groundball rate make for an excellent equalizer.
     
    In 2018 and 2019, Gonzales was worth 3.4 and 3.7 wins respectively by Fangraphs measurements. His 2019 fWAR would have slotted him in as our 3rd most valuable pitcher behind Odorizzi and Berrios, and our 7th most valuable player on the roster. He may not push everyone in this rotation down one tier like we'd dreamed of at the beginning of the offseason, but he would likely be our 3rd or 4th best pitcher and has proven over the last two years that he can chew up innings with the best in the league. On top of all of his numbers, Gonzales also is paid $1m in 2020 and is controlled for the next 3 years.
     
    Gonzales via trade may be better value than signing a Dallas Keuchel via free agency given what we've seen from the market, who actually had a worse year in 2019 despite a similar pitching style. The money could be allocated elsewhere whether it be bullpen or position help. Despite Gonzales being on top of the Mariners rotation, he should not cost a king's ransom via trade given his limited upside. We know the Mariners are in a rebuild, and they have Jerry Dipoto at the helm who would likely trade the family dog for AA arm he finds interesting. I think this addition would be unexciting for most, but extremely underrated. The Twins would have years of what appears to be an innings eater with a high floor and low ceiling, and would certainly become better as a team. Plus I would be 100% here for the angry Tommy Milone comps.
  10. Cody Pirkl
    While the Twins should absolutely be looking at deals with the Marlins, I question how viable it is. They have remarked how "incredibly high" the Twins price on Eddie Rosario is when they said the same thing about Nomar Mazara who was dealt for a high A outfielder. That just tells me that they aren't even looking for a reasonable deal, but one that is just downright lopsided for them.
     
    I doubt they're too inclined to trade any of their younger guys like Alcantra, Lopez or Yamamoto who have all had at least some success in the majors and are controlled for years. I think they're trying to follow the traditional rebuild route and trade Caleb Smith. He's 28 instead of 23/24 like the rest of the names, and is basically found money for them. He's one of the first guys to show any success in this rotation and as the longest tenured and oldest of the group, is the likeliest to be traded.
     
    Is Caleb Smith worth Eddie Rosario? We likely saw the worst case for Eddie last season where he put up a 1.2 fWAR. While he was rightfully loathed at times by Twins fans, he finished the year with decent numbers offensively even if they resulted from hitting in the middle of the order and were somewhat hollow.
     
    Caleb Smith from what I've seen is viewed pretty highly by fans, as he put up what may be his career season. A K/9 over 9 and a 4.50 ERA is a great season. His indicators say he should have been over 5 however, and it really took some regression even to get to that 4.50 considering how great he was in the first half. He also has an injury history and in game durability questions, as he rarely threw beyond 5 innings.
     
    If I'm the Twins, I'm wary of trading for a pitcher coming off a career year who was worth 1 win for our outfielder who had a career worst year worth 1.2 wins. It seems like a recipe for disaster if Eddie rebounds and Smith turns into a pumpkin. I would give up prospects outside of our top 5 or so for one of their younger guys to pair with Eddie if the front office sees potential, but otherwise I'm not looking to just dump Eddie off. What do you guys think?
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