Matt Braun

With baseball awakening from its slumber, join us on a trip through the AL Central, observing what each team has done—and still needs to do—in order to claim the division crown. Image courtesy of © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports How did last season go? Terrible. After a surprisingly competent showing in 2021, the Motor City Kitties fell back into their typical post-2016 swampy waters, finding themselves stuck in a 66-win quagmire. It was a puzzling everything-that-could-go-wrong-did type of season. Their big free agent splashes in Eduardo Rodríguez and Javier Báez capitulated; Rodríguez battled personal issues while Báez continued his lifelong struggle with sliders off the plate. A good team could overcome those things, but when mixed with overbearing injuries to young stars and poor play by their top prospects, Detroit’s 11-win slide isn’t much of an Agatha Christie mystery. Cruelly, almost any bright spot on the team comes with attached asterisks and lawyers' notes. Tarik Skubal was excellent to start the season, appearing on his way to finally grow into Young Ace territory before Flexor Tendon surgery curtly cut his year short; he will likely start 2023 recovering from surgery. Joe Jiménez figured out that you need to strike people out, not walk them, and limit homers… just to be traded to Atlanta following the season. So it goes. Eric Haase’s continued breakout might be the most notable positive for the team; he’s 30 with a poor glove. What did they do this off-season? The Tigers did what all underperforming teams do: tread water on the roster while cleaning up the muck internally. Was Al Aliva the problem? Who knows, but he’s gone, now replaced by former Giants brain man Scott Harris. Was the training staff poor? Maybe, but a clean sweep of the system will now ensure that, if injuries strike again, Detroit will at least have new people they can blame. That cleansing may be wise; the Tigers once claimed a hoard of talented pitching prospects—Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Alex Faedo, among others—but one after the other has either underperformed, fell victim of an injury, or faced some combo of the two. Only the aforementioned Skubal has established himself in the majors. That’s not a pattern Detroit can afford to repeat. Outside of the Jiménez deal, the Tigers’ most impactful move was sending Gregory Soto and his lethal stuff/minimal control combo to Philadelphia for a haul of fascinating players. Will Nick Maton, Matt Vierling, or Donny Sands be good? Who knows, but parting with a reliever to find the answer to that question is a worthwhile bet. They also brought back the prodigal son, Matthew Boyd, and paid $8.5 million to Michael Lorenzen to pitch a bunch of forgettable innings. What should we expect in 2023? Perhaps it’s the madness of modern life sitting in, but the Tigers might be a compelling bounce-back team. It’s unlikely that the bats will be as historically dreadful as they were at parts in 2022, and their wall-moving project—a tasteful venture, unlike Baltimore's—should improve offense, at least a little bit. If Austin Meadows stays healthy and Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene figure out major-league pitching, the lineup could be at least passable. The rotation is shakier. Mize is still on the mend after receiving Tommy John surgery, although his contributions were questionable to begin with, and Skubal just began throwing from flat ground. That leaves a strange hodge-podge of uninspiring veterans in Boyd and Lorenzon, rebound candidates in Rodríguez and Spencer Turnbull, and Manning’s impossibly low strikeout rate. It’s bizarre; this team is bizarre. They need a solid showing from their Faedos and Joey Wentzs to escape the AL Central doldrums. There’s little good news on the prospect front. Keith Law wrote that “[f]rom the 2016 through 2021 drafts, their top three picks by WAR to date are Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize … and John Schreiber, signed for $6,000 in the 15th round. Their international free-agent classes have been totally unproductive. And we haven’t seen many players get better once in the system over the last decade, whether they come in as reasonably polished players or not.” Other than that, things are fine. Jackson Jobe and Jace Jung—brothers in alliteration—pepper the back-end of top 100 prospects lists (so does the other Wilmer Flores, this one a pitcher), but the depth is malnourished, and Detroit lacks the history of identifying and fixing young talent. Colt Keith and Parker Meadows are interesting, though. Their future appears more unpredictable than Kansas City’s, but their upside could be legit. A.J. Hinch is a more-than-competent manager, and some elusive injury luck could spit out a team unlikely to compete for a playoff spot, but one who could flirt with .500 enough to make the effort seem worthwhile. Hopefully, Miguel Cabrera’s final season isn’t wasted on mediocrity. View full article

It was October 6th, 1965, and Metropolitan Stadium had never been more raucous. After a dominating 102-win season, the Twins earned the right to face the class of the NL, the Dodgers, in the World Series. With a 4-1 lead built up against Don Drysdale, Sandy Valdespino smacked a double to right field. Life never felt better. Image courtesy of Malcolm Emmons-USA TODAY Sports The baseball world lost another brother in their fraternity last Sunday. Sandy Valdespino, one of Sam Mele’s bench weapons on the 1965 World Series team, passed away in Moultrie, Georgia, at the age of 84. Signed by the legendary scout, Joe Cambria, Valdespino made his American baseball debut in 1957, crushing a homer in the Texas League that earned him notice in The Sporting News (Cohen). Valdespino—who was originally named “Hilario,” only taking on the name “Sandy” because minor-league manager Johnny Welaj thought he looked like Dodgers player Sandy Amoros—bounced across the minors, playing around the U.S. as he fought for promotions. Jim Kaat recalled rooming with Valdespino in Missoula, Montana in 1958: “We rented a room in a house … I think it was 16 bucks a week,'' Kaat said. "I was 6-foot-5 and white as snow, and Sandy was 5-foot-6 and a black guy in Montana 65 years ago. We made quite the pair strolling down the streets of Missoula.” (Reusse, Miller) As a Cuban player during the Castro revolution, Valdespino navigated choppy political waters, leaving his home country to focus solely on baseball following 1961. “I was very lucky,” he said. “In the beginning, I was kind of worried. What if I don’t make it? What am I supposed to do? But I work hard. I work hard and I keep myself in good discipline. I make a lot of friends. It was good for me.” (Seegmueller). 1965 proved to be his opportunity. After leading the International League in batting with the Atlanta Crackers the prior season, the Twins found room in their lineup for the potential star. Playing time was inconsistent—a start here, a pinch-hit there—as Minnesota stacked outfield proved tough to crack. Valdespino found his niche. An especially fruitful June embodied his 274 plate appearances and consistent play as a late-inning substitute; he played in 108 games that year. Earning three starts in the World Series, including a spot in the two-hole for the opening match, Valdespino cracked a trio of hits, but couldn’t help overcome the great Dodgers pitching machine in a seven-game loss. Despite earning the opening-day left field spot over Bob Allison, Valdespino could not build off his rookie season; 1965 proved to be the most successful season in his career. A second dry season in 1967 begat a journeyman series of seasons. While he rubbed elbows with stars like Hank Aaron, Phil Niekro, Joe Torre, Joe Morgan, and Amos Otis, the magic never returned, and Valdespino retired from MLB following 1971. His playing career ended in 1974 after a venture in the Mexican League. Despite a memorable World Series performance, Valdespino’s most cherished MLB memory was an outstanding catch he made in 1967. “We were winning, 5-3, and Dean Chance was pitching, but he started to have a little bit of trouble in the eighth,” Valdespino said. “So they took him out and put me in the left field, so I could (hit in the pitcher’s spot in the lineup). They pulled Bob Allison out of left and put Ron Kline in to pitch. I got back there slowly and Dick Radatz came to bat. The wind was blowing in like a hurricane, and Kline threw him a fast ball. He hit it, and the ball came off his bat and took off like an airplane. I said, ‘Oooh, what’s this? So I took off running to see how far that ball was going to go over the fence.” (Seegmueller) But the ball didn’t end up flying too far. “When I jumped, my spikes caught the fence and kept me on balance,” he said. “I saw the ball and threw my glove up and it went in. Whop! That was one of my greatest catches ever; they are still talking about it. They have it on a replay they show.” (Seegmueller) For Cleveland’s manager, it was the greatest catch he ever saw, and with Joe DiMaggio in the stands for the game, it was a beautiful showcase of what Sandy Valdespino could do on a baseball field. Sources: Cohen, Alan, Sandy Valdespino, SABR. Miller, Chris and Reusse, Patrick, Former Twins outfielder Sandy Valdespino dies at age 84, StarTribune. Seegmueller, Tom, Albany's Sandy Valdespino recalls escaping Cuba to baseball's Major Leagues, Albany Herald. View full article

Agreed.

It can be true that both the Twins *and* Royals don’t have a great recent track record with homegrown starters. At least Minnesota produced José Berríos.

With baseball awakening from its slumber, join us on a trip through the AL Central, observing what each team has done—and still needs to do—in order to claim the division crown. Image courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports How did last season go? Poorly. Again. The Royals extended their post-World Series rebuild another season, failing to crack .500 for the sixth straight season. They couldn’t pitch, but they made up for it by not hitting. Despite a recent influx of minor-league talent —including a gift from the prospect gods in Bobby Witt Jr.— the Royals allowed 810 runs, scored just 640 of them and dragged down a dismal AL Central with a 65-97 record. They will pick eighth in the 2023 MLB Draft. There were bright spots, a few shiny diamonds littered in their rough. Brady Singer made The Jump, improving his control enough to net him a more-than-respectable 3.23 ERA with peripherals to match. He will continue to spot sinkers on the outside corner for years to come. The aforementioned Witt Jr. treaded water at the major-league level, showcasing elite bat speed and a potentially dynamic hitting package, but couldn’t find his aggressive sweet spot, and his OBP sat below .300 on the year. For the sake of decency, his defense at shortstop should remain ignored. But then, Vinnie Pasquantino, the first baseman netted fewer than 300 plate appearances, but showcased a frightening Freddie Freeman-esque combo of contact and power with a walk rate higher than his strikeout rate; he’s their next Alex Gordon. What did they do this offseason? Not much. They unceremoniously dumped Adalberto Mondesí onto the Red Sox after years of waiting for his injury bug to find a new host (it never did), signed a few arms to eat innings—Ryan Yarbrough and Jordan Lyles—because, well, someone has to, brought on Aroldis Chapman because their version of baseball reference stopped updating at 2019, and re-signed Zack Greinke after his 2022 nostalgia trip resulted in a shockingly usable pitching campaign. They also dealt away Michael A. Taylor for bullpen arms. If that sounds like shuffling an old, mildew-covered deck of cards, you’re right. While they acquired capable major-league players—and a few once dominant ones—their on-field moves were made in order to fill roster spots, not to add impact pieces. The difference-maker for the Royals comes via their brain trust. Longtime decision-maker Dayton Moore earned the boot before the season ended, and J.J. Picollo took over to help steer Kansas City into modernity. Manager Mike Matheny transformed into Matt Quatraro, the recent bench coach for the Tampa Bay Rays. Trekking from Cleveland, Brian Sweeney replaced Cal Eldred as pitching coach. The moves, while small, point towards an acknowledgment of baseball’s changing times. With their laughably archaic minor-league pitching laws likely gone, the Royals appear set to embrace the data-driven movement. Perhaps no player represents Kansas City's issue with developing pitchers than Asa Lacy. The former 2020 4th overall pick dominated as a sophomore with Texas A&M, earning 130 strikeouts with a miniscule 2.13 ERA. His pro time has been a disaster. The few healthy innings Lacy owns are tainted with horrifying walk rates and uncompetitive starts; his prospect status is nowhere near his draft pedigree. What should we expect in 2023? The Al Central-hater that resides deep within this author’s core says more of the same, but that could be a touch mean. A playoff appearance would likely only occur if the rest of the division implodes, revealing each team to be groups of children wearing trench coats, but the Royals probably aren’t looking at wins to judge success. With Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, Jackson Kowar, and Jon Heasley, Kansas City has assembled a group of talented arms, pitchers who would otherwise likely thrive in more ideal pitching environments but have floundered in the Royals’ weird philosophical model. That should change. Picollo and Sweeney will make it change. It’s unclear specifically what the new Royals will preach, but it seems impossible for them to take a step backward. The position players tell a different story. Pasquantino is going to rake (seriously, buy as much stock in him as possible), but Kansas City has accrued an odd combination of talented hitters with poor defensive specs. Witt Jr. will probably hit well, but his defensive chops at shortstop in 2022 were atrocious; M.J. Melendez boasts a promising OBP/power skillset, but he’s a butcher at catcher and appears set to follow the Billy Butler defensive route. After them, it’s a weird assortment of older not-really-prospects and whatever Drew Waters has left in his hype tank. Although, even Waters will be out for six weeks with an oblique issue. What you see is mostly what you get; outfielder Gavin Cross likely won’t impact the 2022 team, leaving the light-hitting Maikel Garcia and the lighter-hitting Nick Loftin as the prospects most likely to alter Kansas City’s fortunes. Both players are infielders. Outfielder Tyler Gentry could mash enough to break the team at some point (he slugged .550 at Double-A last season). Their pitching is more dry, as Angel Zerpa and Alec Marsh represent the talented arms closest to the majors, but Kansas City will likely bank on their technically-not-prospect pool of pitchers anyways. The Royals probably won’t challenge much in the AL Central, but they’ve finally righted the organization, bringing in quality candidates from successful franchises who should help sift through the development quagmire that has soiled the team for years. It won’t work immediately; the 2023 Royals will exist in the nebula, only becoming apparent once the dust settles on their infrastructure altering. But for real, Vinnie Pasquantino is going to be awesome. View full article

Corbin Burnes is down over $700,000 and is not happy. A feisty arbitration case between the ace and his employer, the Milwaukee Brewers, has morphed into a debacle, a spectacle rarely publicly available as the details regarding the hearing tell a strange, piddling tale. Image courtesy of Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports Hurt feelings over arbitration are not a new phenomena; they are the byproduct of a system that pits the player’s capitalizing desires against a team’s inherent payroll conservatism, revealing the gross reality when neither player nor team owns sole control over one’s salary. It's a messy beast. While team and player can kiss and make up—indeed, bridges don’t always burn—it seems inevitable that grudges, minor and major, can brew resentment. There’s a reason why both parties dread the process. Burnes’ arbitration case stands out as one of the messiest in recent memory. Milwaukee remained steadfast in their offer, forcing a day in court over a less than $750,000 difference in pay. While the Brewers technically offered a deal to avoid the meeting—a two-year pact that Burnes described as “pretty poor”— their arguments in the case revealed their intent. “I mean, there’s no denying that the relationship was definitely hurt from what (transpired) over the last couple of weeks,” said the 2021 Cy Young winner following the decision. “There’s really no way to get around that.” “You work hard for seven years in the organization and five years with the big-league team, and you get in there and basically they value you much different than what you thought you’d contributed to the organization.” Professionalism will keep Burnes from mutiny or internal sabotage, but his words tinge with hurt feelings and sourness. After all, Milwaukee apparently placed him in the forefront of reasons why they missed the playoffs. With two years of team control remaining, and a healthy PECOTA projection placing Milwaukee as the class of a weird NL Central, the Brewers have no reason to deal their starter. Burnes may be pissy, but athletes have been crabby for years; an upset star only matters when you start losing. But time can fritter and waste in an offhand way. Two years melt away, losses can pile up, and a team can suddenly find themselves staring at an extensive re-evaluation process as their assets’ years dwindle. It would not be a shock to see Christian Yelich and His Merry Men flail early, perhaps placing Milwaukee—a team always conscious about their stars—in a tough spot. Conversations may need to occur; tough decisions made. Could they afford to hold tight, banking that they reverse course in 2024 with enough vigor to make Burnes’ place on the team worthwhile? The Twins must have their radar up. Aces—always such a rarity these days—almost never become available, especially for a team that lacks the monetary fortitude to pay for one in free agency. Trades are the great savior. When the market evolves, potentially offering a chance for the team to snag their guy, they must react. But the timing must be right. The opportunity, perfect. Spring training is not the appropriate venue for such a deal to go down, but if the team holds their own through July, the trade deadline could be the time to strike. Other teams are thinking as well, wondering whether they can pull the same maneuver to swipe Burnes for themselves. Every team in baseball can use him; the only thing holding them back is themselves. They’ll battle with wondering if they have the gumption to bypass their desire to avoid risk and embrace owning the services of a unique starter. With an unambiguous stud in Burnes, that question becomes a lot easier. For Minnesota, their offer may not touch other teams; their prospect pool is ok, but acquiring Burnes’ services requires the best, not a heap pile of castaways. A combo likely requires Brooks Lee, Marco Raya, and more. It’ll hurt—especially after a plethora of prior trades drained their farm system—but it may be the most crucial step towards the glorious playoff run Derek Falvey and co have worked towards since taking over in 2016. It’s unlikely to happen, but so was signing Carlos Correa, and sometimes you need a little luck, or a grumpy ace, to put your team over the top. View full article

It should be noted that this was a 35-year-old Don Sutton, one who was still great, but not as consistently dominant as his younger self.

And the comps are: Pablo López - Bret Saberhagen (Fun!) Joe Ryan - Kyle Hendricks Sonny Gray - Roger Clemens (This was 1995 Clemens, one of his worst seasons) Tyler Mahle - Homer Bailey (Hahahahahahahaha) Kenta Maeda - Don Sutton Jhoan Duran - Jeurys Familia Jovani Moran - Paul Fry Caleb Thielbar - Randy Choate Emilio Pagán - Brad Brach Bailey Ober - Anthony DeSclafani Jorge López - Hector Noesí Griffin Jax - Shane Greene Jorge Alcalá - Robert Gsellman Chris Paddack - Scott Baker (The machine has jokes) Trevor Megill - Stefan Crichton

What else does the machine have to say about the 2023 Twins, specifically how the pitchers will perform? Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports On Tuesday, Baseball Prospectus—one of baseball's leading analysis site—released their PECOTA projections for every player in MLB. PECOTA predicts nearly everything; minor stats like holds, quality starts, and losses emanate from its crystal ball along with more crucial numbers like FIP and groundball rate. For this article, we will focus on ERA, FIP and WARP. You all know what ERA is. FIP is similar to ERA—you read it exactly the same—but it only considers walks, strikeouts, and homers. WARP is Baseball Prospectus’ version of WAR. Note: These are the 50% projections, meaning each player has a coin flip’s chance of beating or falling behind their projection. I find these numbers more fascinating than the hitter ones. First, nearly every pitcher in MLB is set to beat their FIP according to PECOTA, something I don’t understand and have not found an answer for. I’d love to soliloquy about Minnesota’s excellent defense, but doing so may be incorrect. Anyways, perhaps the most surprising result is the first: Pablo López is the Twins’ best starter by a few ticks. The machine pegs him as netting the 33rd-most pitching WARP in baseball, hanging out with other quality arms like Dustin May and Chris Bassitt. Joe Ryan isn’t far behind him. PECOTA hammer home another point; the starting rotation is a quality assortment of high-floor starters—all five arms are projected to be in the top 80 of MLB by WARP—that lacks a true ace. There isn’t a black hole, however. Now we move into the bullpen. Jovani Moran earns a healthy projection, one that sees him as one of the best relief arms in the game and essentially tied with Caleb Thielbar as the second-best option for Rocco Baldelli. Emilio Pagán, everyone’s favorite punching bag, receives a hearty premonition from the machine, perhaps a sign that his underlying measurables are indeed favorable. The only notable surprise to me is Jorge López, although it makes sense that PECOTA is leery of his performance given his struggles with the Twins. To end our journey with PECOTA, a few other notable projections: Louie Varland receives a 4.01 FIP—usable, but not outstanding. The machine sees some value in both Patrick Murphy and José De León—two pitchers Minnesota signed to minor league deals—as they net 0.2 WARP projections. Note: Baseball Prospectus tinkers with PECOTA until the start of the season; these numbers were taken on February 15th and may not match future projections. Also, if you question PECOTA's value, Rob Mains wrote about how successful the machine is and where it fails. View full article

Kirilloff actually received a much healthier 107 DRC+ projection when they corrected some issues with minor league walk and homer numbers.

What did our mighty machine overlord spit out about the 2023 seasons of several Minnesota Twins hitters? Image courtesy of Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports On Tuesday, Baseball Prospectus—one of baseball's leading analysis site—released their PECOTA projections for every player in MLB. PECOTA predicts nearly everything; minor stats like caught stealing, hit by pitch, and triples emanate from its crystal ball along with more crucial numbers like slugging and BABIP. For this article, we will focus on DRC+ and WARP. Below are Minnesota’s likely opening day position players (plus Royce Lewis) along with their position, DRC+, WARP, and player comp. You can read more about DRC+ here, but to oversimplify, it’s a play off Fangraphs’ wRC+ that also considers inputs like pitcher quality and play outcome relative to the stadium; a hit off Jacob deGrom is worth more than a hit off a position player, after all. 100 is league average, with each point in either direction standing as a percent in relation to the average. If that doesn’t make sense: Byron Buxton’s 119 projection means he will be 19% better than the average hitter. WARP is Baseball Prospectus’ version of WAR; 2.0 is considered an average player. Note: These are the 50% projections, meaning each player has a coin flip’s chance of beating or falling behind their projection. Alright! We have some zesty numbers above. I’m struck by Jorge Polanco standing as an equal with Carlos Correa (they were ranked 44 and 45, respectively) as they share an identical DRC+ projection. Cody Christie wrote that Polanco is Minnesota’s most underrated player, and he may be correct. Correa’s projection appears surprisingly tepid, given that he’s bested a 117 DRC+ in his last two seasons. The next surprise is Joey Gallo. Despite Gallo owning one of the most extreme profiles in baseball, PECOTA sees his 2022 as something of a fluke, and the machine hands him a generous 107 DRC+ projection. I think the Twins would be glad to receive that kind of production from Gallo. His comp is spot-on. Now, on to some disappointments. Nick Gordon’s 86 DRC+ appears low, but PECOTA is typically suspicious of high strikeout/high BABIP players. It’s a tricky balancing act—any drop in power kills his entire profile—but it’s not impossible for him to succeed; Gordon will need to prove himself again in 2023. Then, Trevor Larnach. I scrolled through about 1500 players before finding Larnach munching on algae at the bottom of the list, impressing no one with an 85 DRC+. He suffers from a similar ailment as Gordon: producing with a compromised strikeout-fueled skillset, but he also lacks the playing time to prove his system works. To end this article, we’ll go over a few fun projections. PECOTA loves what Yunior Severino cooked up in the minors last season, handing him a 97 DRC+ despite just a handful of games in the high minors. Jose Salas—part of Minnesota’s return for Luis Arraez—earns a 0.7 WARP projection despite a putrid offensive line; the machine must love his defense. PECOTA sees something in Jair Camargo’s profile; he earned a 0.4 WARP projection despite traveling in the same boat as Yunior Severino. And finally… 36-year-old ByungHo Park has a 99 DRC+ projection. Legends never die. Any other numbers catch your eye? Are there any projections not covered in this article you would like to know about? Leave a comment and start the discussion. Note: Baseball Prospectus tinkers with PECOTA until the start of the season; these numbers were taken on February 14th and may not match future projections. Also, if you question PECOTA's value, Rob Mains wrote about how successful the machine is and where it fails. View full article

Yes, it has been a slow news month. But the competition committee gave us some rules to discuss. Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports In a season introducing a slate of impactful new laws - the pitch clock, limits on the shift, and tweaks to encourage base running - MLB couldn’t help but dive into more minor waters, breaking through with bends-induced plans. The first: the extra-inning free runner on second base will continue in 2023 and beyond. Initially introduced in the truncated 2020 season, the runner - referred to as the Manfred Man, the zombie runner, the ghost runner, or whatever other snide label you prefer - the rule intended to halt the massive extra-inning slog fests. Gone are the days of 18-inning fever dreams. The next-day pitcher shuffling is now a relic. Postseason games will remain unaffected by the law. With editorial restraint, the rule has proven effective. Mike Axisa of CBS Sports notes that “[w]ith the extra-innings tiebreaker rule, only seven games have gone as long as 13 innings the last three seasons. There were 37 13-inning games in 2019 alone, the last year with "normal" extra-inning rules.” The other announced change pertains to position players pitching. Once considered a fun white flag to wave in a blowout, MLB teams, as they so often do, bastardized its original meaning, instead using fielders to save their relievers from extra strain. Jesse Rogers of ESPN writes that “[i]n 2017, there were 32 instances of position players pitching in a game. Last season, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, that number jumped to 132.” The new rule only allows position players to pitch in these scenarios: Extra-innings In the 9th inning, if the leading team is winning by 10 or more runs In any inning, if the losing team is behind by eight or more runs According to Eric Stephens, the new rule would have eliminated around 39 instances of a position player pitching in 2022. And now, the editorializing: The extra-inning rule is an insult to baseball. As MLB continues down its path of restricting as much baseball to be played as possible, they concluded that, in fact, baseball is its own enemy and must be stopped. Games cannot breathe as intended. Close matches are frowned upon. The rules must closely watch over play, punishing the game for moving in its own way for the sake of appeasing teams treating roster spots like gold. MLB knows this; they use the original rules in the postseason because winning via the extra-inning runner is an unnatural phenomena. The position player rule, however, is much needed. It was fun when Michael Cuddyer took the mound to toss a few meatballs in a blowout, but 132 moments of a position player on the mound is far too high. They’re calls for mercy; increasing the instances is sad. Although, removing the 39 times a position player pitched in 2022 still gives you 93 outings. Perhaps the problem is more that the good teams are crushing the bad teams at historical rates. What do you think of these new or updated rules? How do you feel about the decision to keep the Manfred Man in extra innings during the regular season? How do you feel about position players pitching? Leave a COMMENT below. View full article

He may be right; I may be crazy. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports Derek Falvey rustled some feathers the other day when, in an article written by Phil Miller of the Star Tribune, the exec said, "[i]f we were to do anything at this point, it would likely be to add depth in the middle [innings]. We'll keep an open mind, but [relief pitching is] not a priority." It’s a shockingly straightforward answer not saturated with Falvey’s typical lawyer-ish flourishes. Falvey and Miller covered the gambit in reliever talk in that article; I recommend people read the entire piece before outraging (that will never happen). Initially, it’s tough to accept Falvey’s evaluation. I watched the same 2022 Twins team he did, and that squad specialized in blowing games in the late innings. They often failed to hold leads in games that really should have won. Cleveland proved to be a special problem, as Minnesota handed out late wins like Costco free samples as Tyler Thornburg and his ilk tried their darndest to not be a part of the problem. It didn't work, and they finished with the seventh-most meltdowns, a quick-and-dirty Fangraphs stat that uses win probability to determine poor reliever performance. But you don’t need to hear it from a number: that bullpen stunk. Perhaps we’re looking at the issue too broadly, though. Yes, the relief corps was terrible in the first half of the season—Fangraphs pegged them as the 2nd worst in MLB—but they didn’t remain static. Michael Fulmer and Jorge López joined the squad. Caleb Thielber emerged as a tremendous, reliable arm. People with eyes determined that Emilio Pagán should probably not pitch late in games. Evolution took its course. Quietly, so silent that no one cared to notice, the Twins bullpen improved drastically in the second half. Sure, they couldn’t fall further than before, but their bullpen now ranked 4th in MLB in FIP, only sitting behind the blue-blood organizations who consistently dominate the pitching charts. Part of that may be the inherent randomness in reliever performance, but tangible changes appeared to afflict the Twins for the better. Take it from Falvey: "I feel like we saw a lot of progress as last season went on, and within a group that still can make even more progress as they gain experience." Bullpens aren’t made of numbers. People pitch those innings, at least for now. Minnesota’s group includes four arms dancing around one year of MLB service time with another, Jorge Alcalá, who is about as green as the others. Is it unreasonable to believe that Jovani Moran succeeds in an expanded role, Griffin Jax finds another gear, or Trevor Megill fully realizes his strikeout potential? Jhoan Duran will continue melting faces in the near future. The teams main worry will be the complimenting pieces always at risk for the bullpen randomness bug; there's nothing that signing Corey Knebel would do to alleviate that. The issue with the Twins bullpen is perhaps one of perception: because they seemingly blew an incalculable number of games in 2022, they appear incompetent, doomed to blow games again. But that may not be fair. As this author noted in July, relievers are an odd group, one whose jobs rely on the starting pitcher's effectiveness; it could be an all-hand-on-deck night, or Rocco Baldelli may only need the services of two arms the do the job. Given Minnesota’s dreadfully short starting pitching, the bullpen felt an extreme strain. Much of those games were technically the fault of the relief corps, but part of the battle is placing those arms in a position to succeed; Minnesota lost that fight consistently in 2022. And they likely won’t have to carry that weight in 2023. With plenty of wood knocking, the 2023 Twins rotation appears a more trustworthy bunch than their previous counterparts. Swapping Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer for Kenta Maeda and Pablo López gives them a deep rotation. No arm sticks out as truly dominant, but their reliability should feed into the bullpen, removing pressure and allowing its hierarchy to remain intact. The days of Jharel Cotton saving games are over. It is risky. Fewer outcomes in baseball are less aesthetically pleasing than a late blown lead; the win should have been in hand, after all. If López doesn’t regain his Orioles form, Alcalá fails to show the improvement he flashed in 2021, or if any of the breakout 2022 arms regress, it could be a tough summer to bear. View full article

Just as greats live on forever, the underappreciated athlete falls out of conversations. Often lost in time, only remembered through the etchings of historical leaderboards, these players still breathe eternally, only re-entering our shared knowledge when one re-discovers their accomplishments. This is one of those stories. Image courtesy of Thiéres Rabelo (Graphic) One of the greatest Minnesota-born pitchers, Dave Goltz could not have chosen a more inconspicuous start to his life. Born in Pelican Rapids on June 23rd, 1949, Goltz entered the world as the child of a produce marketer (his father) and a produce-business bookkeeper (his mother) (Temanson). He moved to Rothsay as a young boy. A multi-sport athlete in high school, Goltz’s 6’4” frame stood out among the regulars. His dominant performance in football, basketball, track, and baseball—the only four sports offered by Rothsay High School—spread his name across the state as a high school legend, perhaps a new athlete capable of great things (Temanson). Goltz eventually narrowed his focus to baseball, fueled by the interest sparked in him by his former teacher, Ken Reitan, who started a little league team when Goltz was young (Sorum). A fresh-faced 5th-round pick in the newly-minted June MLB draft (the first was in 1965; Goltz was drafted in 1967), Goltz headed to the GCL to start his professional career. His first two seasons were great successes. He led the GCL in ERA in 1967, then led the Northern League in strikeouts in 1968 (B/R bullpen). Set to lead a league in another pitching stat in 1969, conflict in Vietnam intruded on Goltz’s budding pitching career. Despite new President Richard Nixon beginning the slow, messy process of withdrawal, Uncle Sam called Goltz to service. He worked as a helicopter mechanic in the Army Reserve and missed the 1969 baseball season (Temanson). One of 54 former ballplayers who served in the Vietnam War, Goltz never left the states during his active duty (Baseball Almanac) (twinstrivia). Returning to baseball, Goltz spent two more seasons in the minors—one in Tacoma, Washington as roommates with Tom Kelly—before finally joining the Twins in 1972 (twinstrivia). In the middle of the season, Jim Kaat broke a bone in his wrist sliding into second base, and Minnesota “needed to fill the roster with pitchers,” necessitating a promotion for Goltz (Sorum). Two years removed from an ALCS appearance, this was not a legendary period for Twins baseball. A few remnants of the 1960s glory days remained—names like Kaat, Rod Carew, Cesar Tovar, Tony Oliva, and Harmon Killebrew—but this was a roster in turmoil. Bert Blyleven, 21 and one year away from a legendary pitching season, led a group of players whose ceiling was an 85-win season in 1976. Always one to pitch deep into ballgames, Goltz collected 83 complete games in his MLB career (image courtesy of twinstrivia.com) But this was still 1972 and there was baseball to be played. Goltz debuted against the Yankees on July 18th, pitching 3 2/3 scoreless frames in relief of starter Ray Corbin in a 6-0 loss. Thurman Munson—who should be in the Hall of Fame—homered and doubled. Goltz’s first win came in his first start—a six-inning, two-earned-run performance in the opening game of a doubleheader against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Twins used Goltz mainly as a starter the rest of the season, allowing him to soak up innings as the team struggled to stay afloat. As fun as 1972 was, 1973 proved disappointing, a lesson for Goltz to learn as he grew as a player. The 5.25 ERA, 106 1/3 inning slog cursed him to the minors to start 1974, but Minnesota quickly recalled the starter, and he tossed 174 1/3 frames with a finer 3.25 ERA in 1974. Thus began Goltz’s odd streak of consistency. The good: he gobbled nearly 700 innings between 1974 and 1976 with ERAs of 3.25, 3.67, and 3.36, respectively. The bad: Goltz could not escape his record—a stat as crucial to a starter as any—which somehow tagged him as a .500 pitcher each year. He went 10-10, 14-14, and 14-14, respectively, over the same period. Minnesota’s offense remained well over the league average each season; Goltz simply felt the run-support curse that occasionally dogs even the best pitchers in baseball. Goltz’s 1977 was legendary. In an unparalleled 39 start, 303-inning performance, Goltz accrued 19 complete games, won 20 games, and finished sixth in the AL Cy Young voting. He only finished third in MLB in innings pitched—this was the 70s, after all—but he led the AL in both starts and wins, something that a Twin didn’t do again until Johan Santana in 2006. No Twin has touched 300 innings since. Parsing through the best Twins pitching seasons by fWAR, you’ll find a few Hall of Famers—Bert Blyleven and Jim Kaat—a few Cy Young Winners—Johan Santana, Jim Perry, Frank Viola, and Dean Chance—Camilo Pascual’s excellent 1962 and Phil Hughes’ historic 2014, and sitting as the 16th best individual pitching season in Twins history is Goltz’s 1977 effort. In other words, he was pretty good that year. He was so good that he nearly tossed a no-hitter on August 23rd against Boston, only allowing a bloop hit to Jim Rice that barely sailed over a leaping Roy Smalley. Goltz’s 1978 season was even better by ERA. His 2.49 mark served as his career low, but a few ailments, including a burned hand suffered while grilling and a rib fracture earned during a scuffle against the Angels on April 22nd, cut his innings; he totaled “just” 220 1/3 of them that year (Temanson) (Gleeman, 175). The Twins gave Goltz the opening day nod in 1979, marking the third season in which he pitched the first game. Baseball forces worked against him that year; after five straight seasons with an ERA under 4.00, Goltz’s earned runs shot up, and he ended the year with a 4.16 ERA, the worst since his sophomore slump in 1973. His league-leading 282 hits allowed appear to be the culprit. But times were changing. The landmark 1972 Supreme Court decision Flood v. Kuhn effectively killed the reserve clause, allowing players to sign with whatever team they chose. Catfish Hunter's five-year, $3.35 contract before the 1975 season set the standard. Free agency started to develop even more following the 1976 Collective Bargaining Agreement. With years under his belt, Goltz earned the chance to capitalize on his worth. After his disappointing 1979 season, Goltz filed for free agency. The Twins in this era were stingy, to be kind. Owner Calvin Griffith ran potential stars Lyman Bostick and Larry Hisle out of town with his tight pockets and traded 1977 AL MVP Rod Carew for similar reasons. Although, Griffith’s infamous racist comments in Waseca in 1978 also fueled that move. Goltz claims Howard Fox, Minnesota’s Vice President, was the man he had financial issues with, but he nonetheless chose to dabble in the open waters (Temanson). Perhaps not the proudest accomplishment, Goltz owns the record for most runs allowed in a saved game after allowing eight runs against the Cleveland Guardians on June 6, 1973. Four teams, led by the trio of Southern California franchises and Milwaukee, vied for Goltz. The starter preferred the Brewers with their energetic hitters and gritty style of play, but kept his heart open to the Dodgers, Angels, and Padres (twinstrivia). When the Dodgers offered an eye-popping six-year $3 million contract, Goltz's agent sealed the deal, and the Minnesota boy officially headed west to join a growing powerhouse. The 1980s Dodgers, under manager Tommy Lasorda, were a legendary bunch. Fresh off NL pennant victories in 1977 and 1978, the team enjoyed a host of elite players: hitters like Ron Cey, Pedro Guerrero, Steve Garvey, and Dusty Baker supplied the pop while veteran Don Sutton handed the torch off to youngsters Bob Welch, Fernando Valenzuela, and Orel Hershiser. L.A. won two titles in the 1980s while finishing above .500 in six seasons. Goltz’s time as a Dodger was not happy. He started his career in L.A. with back-to-back shutouts but fell out of the rotation in 1981, and the team cut him just a few months into the 1982 season. Still, after tossing 3 1/3 innings in the 1981 World Series, Goltz aided in a championship victory, earning a ring in the process. Goltz remained in California, joining the Angels in 1982. Back under the watch of manager Gene Mauch, Goltz joined an eventual playoff team led by Carew, Reggie Jackson, the eternally-underrated Bobby Grich, Fred Lynn, and Don Baylor. Luis Tiant and Tommy John served as the (very) veteran depth arms. Goltz earned one more chance at postseason success, a relief appearance in Game 4 of the ALCS against the Milwaukee Brewers. However, Harvey’s Wall-Bangers didn’t spare Goltz as, after jumping on Tommy John, Milwaukee pegged Goltz for three runs on their way to a World Series appearance. Goltz tossed a few innings for the Angels in 1983, but his playing career ended quickly and quietly. Never a strikeout artist—he “relied more on ground balls” than strikeouts—Goltz could be easy to miss and simple to paint broadly (Gleeman, 175). Sometimes mentioned as one of the original free agent “busts,” Goltz was not merely a decent pitcher on an elite Dodger team, but instead, a starter who endured massive workloads in his prime, only finally wobbling once he reached the wrong side of 30. Of all the pitchers Gene Mauch oversaw—an impressive list that includes Nolan Ryan, Frank Tanana, and Jim Bunning, among others—he claims Goltz to be the best he ever managed (Temanson). A master of the sinker—one that would “rise” and another that would “sink” into a right-hander—Goltz earned his outs with movement (Sorum). When paired with a knuckle curve that he could throw three different ways, Goltz could gobble innings with the best of them (twinstrivia). His 1,248 innings thrown between 1975 and 1979 are the 11th-highest of all pitchers. Stars like Nolan Ryan, Luis Tiant, Don Sutton, and Jerry Koosman (another Minnesota-born Vietnam veteran) rank below Goltz’s total in that streak. Minnesota’s leaderboards bear Goltz’s greatness. He accrued the fifth-most fWAR of all Twins starters, the sixth-most innings, and has the 11th-lowest ERA of all qualified starters. His numbers compare favorably to Frank Viola—a Twin legend cherished and remembered by fans into the present. Goltz left baseball to join Midwest Insurance in Fergus Falls, Minnesota, where, as of 2010, he still entered the office consistently (Sorum). Occasionally making his way to various Twins events, Goltz prefers to avoid the city and its traffic, instead choosing to live in sparse parts of the state. Aaron Gleeman placed Goltz 30 in his Big 50 book, an appreciation of the men and moments that define the Minnesota Twins. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Twinsdaily's formatting doesn't allow for footnotes, my preferred style of citation, so I used the Author/Date system in the text with my bibliography here. Sources are listed alphabetically, not necessarily by use. Temanson, Lee, "https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/Dave-Goltz/," SABR, 2009. Sorum, Scott, "Dave Goltz: Former Minnesota Twins pitcher calls this area ‘Home’," https://www.wahpetondailynews.com/, 2010. https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Dave_Goltz https://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/player.php?p=goltzda01 twinstrivia.com, "Dave Goltz interview," 2011. Gleeman, Aaron, "The Big 50: The Men and Moments That Made the Minnesota Twins," Triumph Books, 2018 https://www.fangraphs.com/ View full article

In signing a minor-league deal with the Marlins last week, Devin Smeltzer left the only franchise he donned a major-league uniform for, the Minnesota Twins. Image courtesy of Thomas Shea, USA TODAY Sports Devin Smeltzer operated in the most thankless of MLB roles: a Triple-A swingman. Always relied upon when the inevitable pitcher injury bug struck but never promised a spot with the big club. He was meant to be discarded, called up to soak innings, before heading back to St. Paul with a major-league paycheck in his pocket as a reward for his troubles. MLB playing time is better than slumming it in the minors, but the mental drain involved in bouncing between teams takes a toll. It almost never happened. A tumor discovered as a child threatened Smeltzer’s life—not just his playing career. Stricken with a terrible sickness, Smeltzer found solace in baseball, making trips to Citizens Bank Park to watch an elite Phillies team on the rise. Among stars like Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, and Jimmy Rollins, Smeltzer picked out Chase Utley—Philadelphia’s all-around offensive threat, capable of reaching base while slugging at a rate typically unheard of for second baseman—as his favorite player. They met, and an unlikely relationship blossomed. Now healthy and pitching well, a 20-year-old Smeltzer found himself drafted by the Dodgers—the team that now employed Utley. They met again in Spring Training in 2018. A mid-season trade brought Smeltzer to the Twins that year. With a better chance to crack a weaker Twins rotation than the stacked Dodgers, Smeltzer debuted in 2019 with an unforgettable start. The stats could speak for themselves: Smeltzer challenged a playoff-bound Brewers team, one led by reigning MVP Christian Yelich, and dominated. Six innings, seven strikeouts, and no earned runs constituted one of the finest debuts a pitcher can have, but the numbers barely matter; the spectacle of watching Smeltzer—someone who once struggled with cancer at an age intended for carelessness—pitch at the major league level was enough to move every person in the ballpark. Jack Morris could barely speak. Smeltzer tossed 49 innings for the 2019 Twins but spent the next two seasons on the outskirts, consistently passed over as Minnesota looked elsewhere for pitching help. A bevy of injuries created an opportunity for Smeltzer in 2022. With plentiful openings in the rotation, Smeltzer collected 12 starts, accruing 70 1/3 frames for a team in desperate need of them. He was a godsend. But the life of a pitcher on the fringes isn’t a kind one. Fresh out of minor-league options, the Twins saw no need to keep Smeltzer around, jettisoning him to open waters for another team to swipe up. The Marlins did just that. It could be easy to paint Smeltzer’s career in broad strokes. His fastball wasn’t perfect—he could use a few more ticks—and his breaking ball wasn’t ideal—he had trouble getting lefties out—but doing so would be a disservice. Smeltzer was dutiful, consistent. When Minnesota needed innings, he was there, able to gobble frames while the team shifted around paperwork, searching for long-term solutions to their problems. Objectified for his availability, not his performance, Smeltzer served his role well. Not all players are legends; not all Twins are classic. Between the Joe Mauers and Kirby Pucketts—and even the Matt Guerriers—stands an army Devin Smeltzers, players whose contributions may be easy to miss, but are necessary nonetheless. Miami’s plans for him are unclear; the team enjoys a ransom of pitching riches—with one fewer arm, as of late—making chances for Smeltzer to crack their rotation difficult. But he’s faced obstacles before. Biding time is a small ask for someone with Smeltzer's fortitude. View full article