weitz41

Although the Twins are really hurting for viable future catching yet it seems like Ricardo Olivar is totally off the Twins radar. In '22, Olivar was named the MVP of the FCL, FCL post season All-Star catcher and FCL player of the month in July. Although he's listed at catcher, where he played the most of his games, he still played a lot of games at CF and some at 2B and cOFs. He's also good defensively w/ above average arm.
Season Team Level Age G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA   wRC+         2021 MIN FCL 19 34 59 1 5 5 3 13.6% 28.8% .143 .290 .204 .339 .347 .336   92         2022 MIN FCL 20 40 154 5 16 23 5 11.7% 21.4% .256 .430 .349 .442 .605 .480   181 He got drafted in '19 but didn't start pro ball until '21 because of covid. Like a lot of these prospects during this time their development stopped & they became stagnant. The problem is he turned 21 last Aug, & that's a little old for rookie ball. My hope is like Endy Rodriguez exploding this year going from A to AAA, Olivar will do this coming year starting at A ball. Endy was Rule 5 draft eligible this year & Ricardo will be next year.
Ricardo didn't even make TD's honorable mention but he's been on my radar & I'll be tracking him this coming year. 

It's prospect season again. Pitchers and catchers will soon report, so our effort at Twinsdaily to cover the minor leagues will fire up once again, and that includes our prospect rankings.
The system looks surprisingly strong. Despite a flurry of trades over the last 18 months or so, the Twins still have a top nucleus of elite talent, and the franchise enjoys solid upper-level pitching depth. They're a little low on gamechangers at the elite positions—centerfield and shortstop—but so is basically every system, and Minnesota could easily cover that deficiency with a healthy season from Emmanuel Rodriguez and continued development from their two DSL stars. Remember: tier matters more than ranking.
Royce Lewis 6’2” / 200 (Prev: 1) Age: 23
Position: SS
Highest level reached: MLB
Nothing has changed my view of Royce Lewis since I last updated my list. He’s a potentially franchise-altering talent with a frustrating lack of baseball in his recent resume. Lewis’ short playing time in 2022 was a revelation, as he checked significant boxes—his ability to play shortstop and his hitting prowess—before the brutal knee injury cut off his time playing baseball. A much quieter batting stance appears to have unlocked his hitting potential. I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do when he is healthy again.
Brooks Lee 6’2” / 205 (Prev: 2) Age: 21
Position: SS/3B
Highest level reached: AA
If you think Brooks Lee deserves to be in the one spot, I can’t argue with you; Lee is an incredibly safe bet to hit well, no matter where his defensive home is. Despite being drafted just seven months ago, Lee reached AA, playing in a handful of games for Wichita before calling it a season; he smoked A+ ball with a 140 wRC+. His immense hitting pedigree, combined with his lineage as a coach’s son indeed points towards an ideal makeup package that should serve him well as he transitions to big leaguer. He’ll probably impact the 2023 Twins and will undoubtedly affect the team in 2024.                                                        
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Emmanuel Rodriguez 5’10” / 210 (Prev: 4) Age: 19
Position: OF
Highest level reached: A
Potentially the most dynamic prospect in Minnesota’s system, Emmanuel Rodriguez’s nuclear 2022 fell violently when he tore his ACL in June. Still, Rodriguez walked an absurd 28.6% of the time while slugging .551 in a league that favors pitchers. Granted, it was just a 199 plate appearance sample. Still, I’m excited to see Rodriguez return to action healthy, and he could quickly become the Twins’ best prospect sometime next season.
Noah Miller 6’1” / 190 (Prev: 3)    Age: 20
Position: SS
Highest level reached: A
I am too high on Noah Miller; I will remain too high on Noah Miller until his hitting falls entirely off a cliff. Prospects who are locks to play shortstop do not grow on trees—at least none that I know—and Miller’s bat is just good enough to keep him a valuable contributor at the position. If it clicks offensively—and his strike zone awareness is already elite—we’re looking at a potential successor to Carlos Correa in a few years; he’ll need to gain more power, though.
Marco Raya 6’1” / 170 (Prev: 8) Age: 20
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: A
“[Marco] Raya’s slider is Charon, come to ferry batters back to the dugout,” wrote Jeffery Paternostro for Baseball Prospectus in November—a perfect sentence. Raya carries the same risk all pitchers do—injury potential, a future in the bullpen—compounded by his smaller frame. But if he can stay healthy, Raya could vault into the top of the Twins rotation, dominating hitters with a compelling four-pitch mix and a bulldog mentality. Raya struck out 28.9% of batters over 65 innings with Fort Myers in 2022. 
Jose Salas 6’2” / 191 (Prev: n/a) Age: 19
Position: SS
Highest level reached: A+
A new name! A critical, underrated addition to the Pablo López trade, Jose Salas adds another intriguing infield wrinkle to a system bursting with “people who can play shortstop,” not necessarily “shortstops.” A super young 19 in A+, Salas hit like an overwhelmed prospect, but some AFL seasoning plus an off-season of recovery could cleanse him anew. Salas hit .267/.355/.421 in A ball before his promotion in 2022. 
Edouard Julien 6’2” / 195 (Prev: 7) Age: 23
Position: 2B
Highest level reached: AA
If this were a list of favorite prospects, Edouard Julien would be top three, potentially sitting at the top spot. What’s not to love? The lefty smoked AA Wichita with a .300/.441/.490 line and then hit—and I’m not kidding here—.400/.563/.686 in the Arizona Fall League before ending his terror on pitchers for the season. He lacks a defensive home, but a team would move Heaven and Earth to find a spot for that bat somewhere. Minnesota added him to the 40-man roster this past season; we will probably see Julien in the majors soon.                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
Connor Prielipp 6’2” / 210 (Prev: 5) Age: 22
Position: LHP
Highest level reached: n/a
Who is John Galt Connor Prielipp? The baseball world has seen startlingly little from Prielipp, as injuries limited his time with Alabama to seven starts. Still, he owns a mid-90s fastball and a power slider when healthy; 2023 will illuminate his prospect status.
Simeon Woods Richardson 6’3” / 210 (Prev: 6) Age: 22
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: MLB
Maybe one of the more crucial cogs in Minnesota’s 2023 pitching machine, Simeon Woods Richardson appears well-set to impact the major league roster soon. Armed with unique fastball traits, Woods Richardson held his own in a harsh Texas League environment in 2022, then torched AAA at the end of the year for fun. He earned enough respect to make his first Twins start—a five-inning outing notable in that he’ll never have to debut again; the nerves are behind him. Still somehow just 22, Woods Richardson struck out 27% of batters in the minors last season.
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Louie Varland 6’1” / 205 (Prev: 10) Age: 25
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: MLB
Louie Varland should rank higher on this list, but something in his profile doesn’t fully click for me. His fastball is excellent—a real jumper he can use in any count because of his low angle. But none of his other pitches stood out as difference makers, turning Varland into a one-pitch pitcher. His slider and changeup command was non-existent, and batters brutalized his cutter. That’s a negative paragraph for the supposed 10th-best prospect on the team, but that’s what I’ve seen from Varland, and until it changes, I remain bearish on his starting capabilities. 
Austin Martin 6’0” / 185 (Prev: 13) Age: 23
Position: SS/OF
Highest level reached: AA
Austin Martin’s wild 2022 bounced him more than any other player around this list. After slugging a dreadful .315 in a hitter’s league, Martin crushed in the Arizona Fall League, showcasing his older, successful mechanics in a dramatic redemption arc. He’s not a shortstop—that much is obvious now, but if his bat is back, then the Twins could have a quality 3-win utility player capable of playing a variety of positions. 2023 will be a crucial test. 
Matt Wallner 6’5” / 220 (Prev: 9) Age: 25
Position: OF
Highest level reached: MLB
It’s hard to hold 18 major league games against a guy, but Matt Wallner’s Adventures in the Outfield stunk enough to deeply sour me on any notions of him replacing Max Kepler soon. The Twins appear to agree. With approximately 30,000 outfielders ahead of him, it would take a series of great tragedies before Wallner earns significant MLB playing time soon. Still, he shaved points off his strikeout rate in 2022—the biggest knock against him—and he could ride his outstanding power stroke to an elongated playing career. 
Yasser Mercedes 6’2” / 175 (Prev: 11) Age: 18
Position: OF
Highest level reached: DSL
Yasser Mercedes did things as a 17-year-old that teenagers aren’t supposed to do. Yes, it was in the noisy environment that is the DSL, but 30 steals with a .555 slugging percentage is impressive, no matter the level. Mercedes will likely play in rookie ball in 2023, and I imagine his prospect package will become much more apparent in 2024 when he’ll still be just 19. 
David Festa 6’6” / 185 (Prev: 20) Age: 22
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: A+
One of the most “pop-uppiest” prospect in the Twins system in 2022, David Festa commands a tremendous fastball/slider combo that torched hitters in the low minors. Although his numbers dropped following a promotion to A+ ball, Festa punctuated his season with a 10-strikeout performance over six shutout innings in a playoff game against the Cubs. We will see how Festa pitches in a tougher environment in 2023.
Misael Urbina 6’0” / 190 (Prev: 12) Age: 20
Position: OF
Highest level reached: A
Misael Urbina is an excellent example of why prospect evaluations are a snapshot in time, not the law in written form: he couldn’t hit for any power in 2021 but re-played A ball again in 2022 and showcased a much-improved power stroke. Soon to be 21, Urbina should unleash even more strength this year, potentially shooting him further up the list. 
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Brent Headrick 6’6” / 235 (Prev: 14) Age: 25
Position: LHP
Highest level reached: AA
A surprise 40-man addition, Brent Headrick’s numbers are perhaps more impressive than his raw tools. His breaker is a bit of a looping pitch, which MLB hitters–especially righties—could lay off of, but his fastball lands perfectly at the top of the zone, and his command is good enough that the breaker shape may not matter. He will probably impact the Twins in 2023—though it’s unclear in what capacity—and he could become a regular, reliable lefty swingman. 
Jordan Balazovic 6’5” / 215 (Prev: 15) Age: 24
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: AAA
How do you rank Jordan Balazovic? Long considered the promised arm, delivered by our wonderful friends Up North, Balazovic faced a nightmare 2022 season, one so hideous that I don’t even want to post any stats from it. The Twins claimed he was healthy, but such a shocking drop-off in performance is almost unbelievable; hopefully 2023 will be a kinder year for Balazovic.
Ronny Henriquez 5’10” / 155 (Prev: 17) Age: 22
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: MLB
One of the more exciting arms in Minnesota’s system, Ronny Henriquez spent a few months getting bullied by AAA hitters before turning around and delivering an adequate July through end-of-season performance. Armed with a fastball, slider, and changeup, Henriquez will pepper well-commanded off-speed pitches around the zone, hopefully enticing the hitter to bite before the end of the at-bat. His issue? A fastball that ends up either 1. In the heart of the strike zone 2. In the gap (if he’s lucky) 3. In the hands of a fan sitting in right-center field. Whether Henriquez can improve his heater will determine his success at the major league level. 
Noah Cardenas 6’1” / 195 (Prev: 18) Age: 23
Position: C
Highest level reached: A
I am still trying to understand why Noah Cardenas is not more well-regarded as a prospect. Catchers who hit for a 146 wRC+ aren’t common, and while he was older than your average A-ball hitter, I feel confident that Cardenas should continue to hit as he elevates through the system. Although catcher development is often strange, so he may run into weird pitfalls and unusual traps that keep him from improving linearly. 
Jose Rodriguez 6’2” / 196 (Prev: Unranked) Age: 17
Position: OF
Highest level reached: DSL
Like Yasser Mercedes, Jose Rodriguez is a 17-year-old whose only time in professional baseball is in the DSL—a sign that all hype should involve grains of salt and the such. Still, as a player even younger than most DSL hitters, Rodriguez pounded 13 homers and slugged over .600. He’s about as far away from the majors as possible. Still, you should keep his name in mind over the next few years as a potential big-league powerhouse. 
Cody Laweryson 6’4” / 205 (Prev: 23) Age: 24
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: AA
A personal favorite, Cody Laweryson prefers to trick hitters with his pitching motion: a lanky, swan-like delivery that combines the sudden violence of Carter Capps with the grace of Joe Ryan. Lawyerson crushed AA, striking out over 30% of hitters while holding an ERA just over 1.00. The Twins left him unprotected in the rule 5 draft, and no other team claimed him, giving Laweryson another year to prove that his play isn’t a fluke.
Cole Sands 6’3” / 215 (Prev: 16) Age: 25
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: MLB
Cole Sands owns one of the nastiest pitches in Minnesota’s system: a whirling breaking ball, here to alter planes and send batters home wondering if they even saw the pitch. The issue? The offering moves so much that Sands has difficulty commanding the pitch. He mixes in an effective splitter—which actually outperformed his breaker by xwOBA during his time in the majors—but his fastball drags down his profile. Sands might be a kitchen sink reliever if he doesn’t improve his heater. 
Blayne Enlow 6’3” / 170 (Prev: 14) Age: 23
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: AA
Blayne Enlow pitched in an entire season for the first time since 2019, and his results were mixed. He struck out 24.8% of hitters—which is good—but walked 11.6% of them—which is not good. The Twins DFA’d him earlier in the offseason, but after no team claimed him, Enlow will have another year in the system to prove he was worth his high draft pick. 
Tanner Schobel 5’10” / 170 (Prev: 27) Age: 21
Position: 2B
Highest level reached: A
The Twins sent Tanner Schobel on the fast track, pushing their 2022 2nd-round pick to A Ball, where he held his own. Although lacking in power, Schobel could carve out a career as a contact/OBP/defense threat capable of putting together a 3 WAR season if everything works out; many teams could use a player like that. 
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Alejandro Hidalgo 6’1” / 160 (Prev: n/a) Age: 19
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: A
A newcomer, Alexander Hidalgo joined the Twins in the Gio Urshela trade. The Angels handled him with kid gloves, as he didn’t touch 40 innings despite making 10 starts. The owner of a plus changeup, Hidalgo’s pitch mix is otherwise unimpressive, but he could grow into an off-speed specialist if he finds more consistency with his curveball; his fastball lacks crucial characteristics. 
Matt Canterino 6’2” / 222 (Prev: Unranked) Age: 25
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: AA
I highly doubt that Matt Canterino will even become an effective starter for the Twins. His minor league innings total is barren, and the righty looks to be standing in a long line of Rice products driven into the ground by an indifferent coaching staff. Still—and this is the only thing keeping him on the list—his electric stuff could allow him to live as a 1-2 inning reliever.
Alex Isola 6’1” / 215 (Prev: 24) Age: 24
Position: C/1B
Highest level reached: AA
A 29th-round pick, Alex Isola has hit well at every step in his minor league journey. He owns a well-rounded hitting package, trading off a touch of power for excellent plate control (13.0% walk rate vs. 18.2% K rate at AA), and could find himself playing some first base for the Twins if a few injuries take out key players. 
Cesar Lares 6’0” / 155 (Prev: 28) Age: 19
Position: LHP
Highest level reached: DSL
Another DSL prospect, Cesar Lares crushed his competition in 2022, holding an impressive 2.23 FIP over 46 innings. Again, he’s literally a teenager; we don’t know much about how he’ll perform against older, tougher competition, but he appears to be on the right track. Keep his name in mind. 
Aaron Sabato 6’2” / 230 (Prev: 29) Age: 23
Position: 1B
Highest level reached: AA
For two years now, Aaron Sabato has done just enough to keep his name in these prospect conversations, but time is running out for the former 1st-round pick. After hitting well at A+ ball, AA smacked into Sabato like a truck; whether he can recover in 2023 will potentially define his time as a Twins prospect.
Yunior Severino 6’1” / 189 (Prev: 25) Age: 23
Position: 2B/3B
Highest level reached: AA
A post-hype prospect received after the Braves got caught with their hands in the cookie jar, Yunior Severino broke out with big numbers at A+ ball before falling back to earth at AA. We will see if he can rebound at a higher level.
Honorable mentions:
Brayan Medina, RHP:
Brayan Medina came over in the Chris Paddack trade and struggled to throw strikes in his time at Rookie Ball. He can touch the mid-90s and works well off a curveball.
Danny De Andrade, 3B/SS:
Danny De Andrade is an all-around player, lacking in one elite category but doing everything mostly well. He has yet to break out of rookie ball and could burst with his first (probable) playing time in full-season ball. 
Kala’i Rosario, OF:
Kala’i Rosario strikes out far too much, but he has good power for a 20-year-old and could improve with extra seasoning.
Michael Helman, 2B/OF:
Michael Helman hasn’t exploded with an overwhelming season yet, but he’s snuck his way into AAA, and his overall package could serve him well if the Twins need to call him up.
Alerick Soularie, 2B/OF:
Alerick Soularie still hasn’t tapped into his power potential, which makes his high strikeout rate hard to stomach. Still, he could figure it out any day now and shoot back up this list.
 

Jhoan Duran is not only the best reliever the Twins have had since Joe Nathan; he is the most talented pitcher they have had since Johan Santana/2006 Francisco Liriano. There have certainly been talented players throughout that timespan, even an all-star or two, but no one has had the absolute shutdown stuff this guy possesses. If he is remotely near the zone, opposing hitters have little to zero chance of doing anything. So why not try him in the rotation?
Twins fans have been begging for an ace since Santana's departure following the 2007 season. The closest we have come was probably Ervin Santana or Jose Berrios. Instead, we have been treated to the likes of Scott Baker, Carl Pavano, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and Jake Odorizzi. They were not bad pitchers, but they were not aces. Don't get me started on the likes of Samuel Deduno, Ricky Nolasco, Scott Diamond, or Hector Santiago. Feel free to add some more of your favorite lukewarm bowls of mashed potatoes to this list. I'm sure I left off some true gems.
So again, why not try Duran in the rotation? The whispers have already begun. He has starting experience (though with a bit of injury history). He's 6'5", 230lbs, and his body can take the innings. He has four pitches (4SFB, splinker, curveball, slider/cutter), a trait uncommon for relievers but usually necessary for starters. All the signs point to him being rotation capable, especially if he were to add a change-up. It wouldn't even have to be that good, and he would have an insane makeup as a starter. The temptation is palpable, and I have had these thoughts in the back of my head since the first time I watched this guy unleash the nastiest repertoire I have ever seen. It's not just the velocity and the movement, but the command. It is unique from others that possess stuff approaching the filth he brings.
All this being said, the answer is to resist the temptation. As tantalizing a notion as it would be, knowing every fifth day you get to watch this magnificent beast bring triple digits and then make hitters look foolish as they flail over the top of a mid-upper 80s hammer, we must resist.
Look at his numbers, folks. It's upsetting how good he was, especially in the second half when he really found his mojo. He was a man who was never rattled, never deterred. He knew he was better than anyone stepping into that box, and yes, I mean ANYONE, and it showed.
Confidence and mental state are crucial to all aspects of baseball, but especially to pitching. To a certain degree, to be a true stud on the mound, you have to have the mindset that you are the biggest and baddest motherf----- in the land. No one can beat you. That mindset comes from confidence, which comes from success.
Putting Duran in the rotation risks that success. Duran just turned 25 this month; messing with a young player who has already achieved that mindset is dangerous. You risk getting the yips after a few bad starts and then not being able to return to form in the pen. The yips are real and can happen. Anyone who has pitched knows this to be a harsh reality. It is just not worth it. Yes, we may never know if we have a true ace amongst us here and now, but we have the baddest mofo we could ever ask for, and that needs to be enough.

On December 10th, it was announced that a few Twins had changed their jersey numbers. Trevor Larnach from 13 to 9, Emilio Pagán from 12 to 15, Kyle Farmer from 17 to 12, Bailey Ober from 16 to 17, and Griffin Jax 65 to 22.
This is nothing out of the ordinary; a few players each offseason on any team will request a number change for one reason or another. However, this time, something peculiar happened shortly thereafter.
Joey Gallo was signed less than a week later, and he claimed the 13 number, his number in Texas and New York, which had conveniently been vacated by Larnach. Is this a coincidence? My money is on no; it's incredibly meaningful.
I did exactly what you have come to expect from old Gregg--I've scoured the list of remaining MLB free agents to see what this might mean for the rest of the offseason, and it leaves more questions than answers. Here are my findings:
#9 (Taken by Trevor Larnach)
The only remaining free agent who wears 9 is Dee Strange-Gordon, Nick Gordon's half-brother. Might there be a rift between Larnach and Gordon now that he's preventing his big brother playing for Minnesota? Probably. It's a good thing that Correa is back to try to help keep the locker room intact. Between this and fighting over left field playing time, things could get ugly.
#12 (Vacated by Emilio Pagán; Taken by Kyle Farmer)
Farmer really stepped on Pagán's toes here. It looks like Emilio may have been trying to open the door for Rougned Odor to don a Twins jersey, which makes sense given his history of sucker-punching opponents who homers off his pitchers. Having Odor at second base would definitely help keep Pagán's homerun numbers in check. Watch for a rift between these two teammates as well.
#15 (Taken by Emilio Pagán)
It's been a rough 24 hours in Twins territory with the last two #15 free agents signing elsewhere in Raimel Tapia and Brian Anderson. When will the team finally pull the trigger on the guys they really want?
#16 (Vacated by Bailey Ober)
This was the spot that showed the most promise, though with Trey Mancini coming off the board this week, the remaining pool is thin in Cesar Hernandez and Travis Jankowski. I would bet that the Twins were more in on Mancini than suggested, given that they clearly forced Ober to change numbers to attract him.
#17 (Taken by Bailey Ober)
Ober apparently looked Chris Archer in the eyes and said "This town ain't big enough for two five-and-dives" and took his number, preventing his return. Go get 'em, Bailey!
#22 (Taken by Griffin Jax)
Learned men like me know that there was no shot of the Twins getting Andrew McCutchen with this stunt pulled. Think of the team, Griffin!
This also rains on Jeremy Nygaard's hopes to bring back Miguel Sanó. Surely the big man wouldn't come back if he couldn't get his number back from a relief pitcher. To make matters worse, this also eliminates Robinson Canó from contention. Sure, he switched his number for Roger Clemens in New York, but Jax is no Rocket; he's Air Force, not Space Force.
This also removes Luis Torrens as an option. Sad day for those of you with Luis Torrens on your offseason bingo card.
#65 (Vacated by Griffin Jax)
There isn't even a potential free agent with Griffin's old number. So selfish.

MLB Trade Rumors is reporting that Blayne Enlow passed through waivers and has been outrighted to AA. I thought he might be part of a trade package or get picked up by a lesser team. Guess the FO knew better than I or many of us here did. I don't like everything they do but you have to give them props when they take a calculated risk and it works out. 

This is all of course predicated on Correa staying in New York. Also a couple of these moves are related to each other.
#1 Trading redundant players. Not breaking any news here. Kepler and even Arraez have both been mentioned as trade candidates. Especially after the Joey Gallo signing. Yes the Twins could very easily keep Kepler and go with an OF of Kepler, Buxton, Gallo. AND if they feel Kepler will have a strong season with the shift rules changes, then the best move is to keep him and potentially trade him for higher value at the deadline. If he has a strong 1st half then that $10M team option for next year greatly increases his trade value. I am not sure what the trade value is for either Kepler or Arraez, so I am not going to sit here and say.. Lets trade Kepler for Sandy Alcantara to improve our pitching This trade group is also not limited to Kepler, Wallner, Larnach, Kirilloff could all also be slotted into this scenario.  We cannot play them all, and there may even be better overall fits out there instead of them (although I like Wallner and Larnach). And this brings me to move #2...
#2 Sign Domnic Smith. I still cannot believe he is unsigned. Dom is not a game changer, but he can play GG caliber defense at 1B. and has a very solid bat, with even "great bat" potential. He never got consistent ABs at his natural 1B position with the Mets. He could be signed at a very team friendly deal at this point. If there is decent trade value in Kirilloff, Kepler, any other LH or potential 1B on this squad then trading them and signing Dom is a great move, because not only would we secure Dom cheaply, but also get some return for players he will replace.
 
#3 Call Texas regarding Ezequiel Duran. This again is dependent on what else we do, especially if we trade Arraez. Yes we have Farmer as a potential SS/utility IF kind of guy, but Ezequiel Duran can play MORE positions, is younger/cheaper, and I think an overall superior bat. he is a natural 2B, but can play 3B & SS, and has gotten some time in the OF. with Seager, Simien, Jung on the IF he is blocked. Maybe this is a good swap with Kepler as Texas is still looking for an OF. and while I like Polanco at 2B he is $7.5M this year and $10.5 next. SO this also helps free up cash IF the Twins ever decide to step up and pay in the deep end of the FA pool.
 
AND... While I said these moves assume Correa stays with Mets. These moves make even MORE sense if something weird happens where Mets back out and the Twins can get Correa for something along the lines of the 10 years $285M they offered, although I would do something more like 8 for $250. (Higher AAV but less long-term risk). As these moves would clear $16M this year and $12-20M depending on options next year and replace with equal offensive output in Dom Smith & Duran).  Dom's position wouldn't be the same, but bat for bat Smith would be an upgrade over Kepler, and allow one of Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner to play the 3rd OF spot.
 

The Minnesota Twins recently signed Willi Castro to a minor league contract. He will not be the opening day shortstop, he likely won’t make the team, and in a perfect world, he probably never sees the Big Leagues in 2023. Having experienced a very not perfect 2022, Castro provides depth in several positions and has some intriguing skills worth noting. While digging, I found some interesting things about Castro that I would like to share and found him a more familiar player than I initially thought. 
Feature Image via Tom Hagerty
So far in his career, Willi Castro has not been a very productive Major League Baseball player. Through just over 300 games and 1,000 plate appearances, he is slashing .245/.292/.381 (.673 OPS) with a 4.7% BB%, 24.1% K%, 86 wRC+, and -22 total DRS (defensive runs saved) at six different positions through 2,338 innings and 1.6 fWAR. Not to be redundant, but he has been relatively unimpressive so far, hence why he was DFA’d from the Detroit Tigers and could only land a minor league contract. 
So why would the Twins invest? For starters, minor league contracts carry almost zero risk, meaning if the Twins cut him halfway through the season, there are no negative consequences. Castro is a switch hitter who has been significantly better against left-handed pitching (career .711 OPS vs. LHP - .658 OPS vs. RHP). The Twins have been searching for more effective bats against left-handed pitchers, and he has Major League experience at six positions: 2B, SS, 3B, and all three outfield spots. In addition, Castro also has some eye-catching athleticism metrics. Per Statcast, his max exit velocity for his career is 115.4 MPH, which was the 95th percentile in 2021. Statcast registered his sprint speed in 2022 as the 78th percentile, and his arm strength scored in the 87th percentile, with his hardest throw hitting 97.0 MPH. 
Can you think of any Twins players that sound familiar to Willi Castro? 
The player that came to my mind is Danny Santana. Both players entered the Big Leagues with a bang, but their teams eventually moved on after both players failed to repeat their hot start. Santana bounced around in the Minor Leagues and resurfaced as a utility man with another breakout season in 2019 but was largely unproductive outside 2014 and 2019. Castro was exceptional in 2020 but has been relatively unproductive since and is following Santana’s footsteps by trying to survive in the Majors as a utility man. He logged about 800 more plate appearances than Castro, but their career numbers are similar in certain areas. 
Here are some statistics that are very close for Castro and Santana:
(Castro)  (Santana) 
OBP: .292  .296
BB%: 4.7%  4.8%
K%: 24.1%  25.6%
wRC+: 86  85
xwOBA (League avg .316): .296  .290
Z-Swing % (League avg 66.9%): 75.0%  74.5% 
O-Swing% % (League avg 28.4%): 39.8%  36.9%
Swing % (League avg 47.1%): 56.7%  55.3%
Whiff % (League avg 24.7%): 29.2%  29.7%
DRS at SS: -13 (696 Innings)  -15 (918 Innings)
Sprint Speed: 78th percentile (2022)  74th percentile (2021) 
Arm Strength: 87th percentile (2022)  96th percentile (2021)
What stands out about these numbers? The similarities between the two players are plate discipline and bat-to-ball ability. These players are free-swinging, low-walk, medium strikeout hitters with good raw power that hasn’t entirely translated into game power, likely due to plate discipline or approach reasons. They also compare similarly as athletes and defensively at shortstop. 
So how do they differ as players? Castro and Santana utilize their athleticism quite differently. Santana, throughout his career, has two different 20 stolen base seasons and has a 75/101 (74.3% success rate); Castro has only stolen 18 bases and is 18/28 (64.2% success rate) in his career. Santana also hit for a little more power than Castro has so far; Santana’s career SLG is .413, Castro at .381 with ISO (SLG minus BA, league avg .183) saying the same; Santana at .159 and Castro at .136. Castro has had his athletic abilities translate more to the defensive side of the ball. While neither player stuck at SS, Willi Castro has turned himself into a viable defensive option in the outfield, something Santana never quite got to. DRS (0), UZR (0.1), and OAA (-1) all agree that through 724 innings, Castro is about a league-average outfielder. They are less conclusive on Santana but overall are low, totaling 1945 innings, with DRS having him at -7, UZR at -1.1, and OAA at 1. 
This move by the Twins carries a negative undertone due to how the offseason has been going so far but try not to let their failure in one area (or player) affect your judgment of Castro. He has some very tantalizing physical tools as well as spurts of success in the Major Leagues, not to mention Detroit is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in all of baseball. A deal with this kind of upside on a minor league contract is good for the Twins. While praising this signing seems contradictory because ideally, he never leaves St. Paul, we will likely see Castro at some point due to his versatility and the inevitability of injuries. Whether or not you are a fan of this move, I hope this nugget was interesting to you in some manner and I look forward to reading your thoughts on Willi Castro.
 
Links and Definitions for some lesser known statistics: 
xwOBA: https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/expected-woba
wRC+:https://www.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats/weighted-runs-created-plus
Z-Swing%, O-Swing%: https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/plate-discipline/
Whiff %: total swings and misses/total swings 
DRS: https://library.fangraphs.com/defense/drs/
UZR:https://library.fangraphs.com/defense/uzr/
OAA:https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/outs-above-average
 

I am sure at this point WHOEVER the Twins woudl go and sign a good chunk of us will complain.  At least it is a move, but does it really make sense?
Gallo does not change the trajectory of the Twins, he could be decent, he could be good, but if he doesnt change the trajectory, is there really a reason to sing him? Don't we already have logjam... or at least a good number of options for OF/DH spots?
Larnach, Kirilloff, Kepler, Wallner,   We have Garlick (expendable) on the roster, we have players at AAA who are close as well.
 
Since 2015 here are his BA...  .204/.040/.209/.206/.253/.181/.199/.160  CAREER .199!!!!
He hits less than Miguel Sano, actually strikes out MORE (if you can beleive that) so we pay him $11M.  
Where does Gallo play? RF is his best position.  but we have Kepler.  He could be DH, but didnt we want to get away from having a primary DH?
If you say, well that makes Kepler expendable yoru nuts!!!  We are now paying Gallo MORE then Kepler,   Kepler's BAD years are .220, that is a career year for Gallo.  I knwo batting average is not the biggest thing, but making contact and getting on base is!!
Again, maybe Gallo has another career year at hits 40HR with a .230 avg.  and you want to talk about health???  2019 he played in 70 games, 2020 57, he did get in 153 games in 2021 and then 126 last year.
 
So, no better than what we have (no better than Sano who we DFA), not a position of need, does not have a consistent history of playing 150 games.  OF COURSE lets go ahead and pay him $11M!!!  
The banning the shift aint gonna do anything against K's.
ANY sense that this FO has a clue is out the window... throw a low ball offer at Carlos Correa (relative to current market) and OVERPAY for Gallo.  BRILLIANT!!!
 
Lets not pay $13M for Noah Syndegaard, lets pay $11M for Joey Gallo.
Regardless of the results Gallo does this year, he could be MVP and I will stand 100% by the call that this is a HORRIBLE signing and shows incompetence. 
 
Imagine that He was a draft pick and a prospect with the Rangers while Levine was in Texas just continues to show how myopic this FO is. There was obviously scouting  that had Levine like him to draft him, is he still stuck on those old scouting reports? does he think he can get the "true potential" out of him?
 
I challenge ANYONE to provide ANY solid, coherent defense that says this signing is anything but horrid.  
 
Anyways, LET's GO TWINS!!!

BTV stands for Baseball Trade Values. It's a website that gives a trade value on every single ball player in the system, where you can put together a  fantasticized trade and when posted are given a chance to accept or deny those trades.  Although they're not perfect, they give you a good consenses of a player's worth in a trade by reading reports, talking to scouts and managers.
Like every real life trade, you can't just balance the value but you need to figure in the need, undetermined variables and how it effects the 40 man roster. That said I reject about 90% of the Twins proposed trades because they don't meet my criteria. Yet it's fun to research teams to see where their needs are and if they have anyone who'd fit our needs and what it would take put together a reasonable trade.
I know some don't like it but I think it's a nice tool to put together a "in the ballpark" trade suggestion.

The idea of taking a shot at an offseason plan is always a fun one. Here's my attempt. As best as I could, I used the arbitration projections cited elsewhere. I also used the free agent projections at MLBTradeRumors as starting points. And I had the advantage of being able to include the Urshela and Farmer moves and other action that's happened to date. 
 
First, the sunk costs – options that didn’t get picked up: Bundy $1M, Archer $.75M and Sano $2.75M for a total cost of $4.5M
Next is the rotation guys already on the roster – Gray $11.825M, Ryan $1M, Mahle $7.2M, Maeda $3.125M, Paddack $2.4M, Dobnak $1.5M, Winder $0.75M, Ober $0.75M, for a total cost of $28.5M. I’m willing to run with this group of eight, knowing I’ve got Woods Richardson, Varland, Enlow, Balazovic, Henriquez and Enlow in St. Paul. I’ll also grab a couple Aaron Sanchez/Dereck Rodriguez-types on minor league contracts to see if I can catch lightning in a bottle.  
Relievers on the roster – Duran $0.725M, Thielbar $2.4M, Lopez $3.7, Moran $0.725M, Jax $0.75M, Alcala $0.8M, for a total cost of $9.1M. The close reader will note the absence of Pagan. I’m actually not that averse to keeping him around, but I’m going to take advantage of the rumor mill that says multiple teams expressed interest. Stay tuned.
Catcher – Jeffers at $1.3M. We’ll need more, obviously. Stay tuned.
Infield – The mixture of Miranda (1b/3b) $0.75M, Farmer (ss/3b) $5.9M, Arraez (1b/2b) $5M, Polanco (2b) $7.5M and Gordon (2b/ss) $0.75M gets us a base-level infield at $19.9M, with Lewis and Lee waiting in the wings. You might wanna stay tuned, however.
Outfield – The mix of Buxton $15.143, Kepler $8.5M, Larnach $1M, Kirilloff $1M, Celestino $0.725, Wallner $0.725M and Cave $0.8M gives flexibility at $27.893M. I think Kepler will bounce back and at least one of the Larnach/Kirilloff/Wallner trio will fully blossom. Consider as well that Gordon and even Lewis or Lee could fit into this picture as well.
And that gives us a total cost of $91.193M so far, with just the need for a catcher, bullpen depth and miscellaneous other improvements. There's really no one on this list that can't DH, so I'm assuming people will rotate through that spot.
We’ll start with catcher. The Blue Jays are operating from a position of depth with Alejandro Kirk, mega-prospect Gabriel Moreno and still-young Danny Jansen. It’s also a team that is seeking bullpen depth, so I’m going to offer Pagan for Jansen. It may take a prospect to add to the mix, but I’m comfortable that it won’t need to be a highly ranked guy, so I’ll plug in Jansen at $3.7M, bringing us to $94.893M.
I’m still needing bullpen depth, but I’ll first address the elephant in the room – miscellaneous improvements. I give Correa a raise to $35.5M per year for the next four years, with an opt out, followed by two years at $32M with another opt out, followed by two years at $30M. That’s a guarantee of $266M over eight years, but it's front-loaded for him and gives him the ability to opt out after his age 31 and 33 seasons, both ages when he’s still young enough to get a six- or four-year deal. With his $35.5M for 2023, our total is $130.393M as we head to the bullpen.
I’ve always had a thing for David Robertson, and he proved me right this year. He’s served as a closer and as a setup guy in the past, and I offer him the 2/$16M MLBTR suggests. I’m generally skeptical of big contracts to relievers, but seeing Kenley Jansen at 2/$26M is too good to pass up.
That pushes the budget up to $151.393, but I’ll have a bit of savings in that I’ve got dollar figures attached to 30 guys. Though all 30 guys will see MLB time at some point, several of them won’t get the total listed here, since they’ll spend some time in the minors. I figure that’ll save a couple million.
And as it turns out, I’ve got a March birthday, and the bosses give me a birthday present. On MLBTRs list, they’ve got dollar values assigned to nine relievers, with an annual salaries of $4.5M at the bottom. In their list of “honorable mention,” they’ve got Michael Fulmer, Craig Kimbrel, Seth Lugo, Matt Moore and Matt Strahm. If any of them don’t get a major league deal, I give them a minor league contract with opt-out dates and an incentive-based contract.
And the birthday present gets even better – to me, the most conspicuous name that’s missing from MLTTR's article is Aroldis Chapman. Seeing him unsigned, I give him a $3M guarantee with incentives and look forward to him slamming the door in Game 7 of the ALCS at Yankee Stadium.
Chapman’s $3M balances the bit of savings that’s in guys who’ve been optioned, and leaves me with a budget of just over $150M, but when the higher-ups think about adding Chapman, Jansen, Robertson and a veteran on a minor league contract to a bullpen that already has Duran, Jax, Lopez, Thielbar, Alcala and Moran, they say “Go for it” and give me a $300 bonus gift certificate to spend in the team store.
But alas, that’s still not enough to get one of the new jerseys. I liked the old ones better anyway.   

Looks like my previous Blog had a bad link. This one seems to be working for me.
I prefer the tier rankings over 1-100 type. Most tier 1's are in your top 100 type listings. Tier 2 prospects are usually 75-200 range. Keith Law pointed out that the difference between a #1 prospect and a #25 is usually huge. Where a 50th ranked player and a 100th ranked player is pretty small.
Updated MLB Farm System Rankings at Start of the 2022-23 Offseason | News, Scores, Highlights, Stats, and Rumors | Bleacher Report

With the deadline for finalizing 40 man roster in advance of the Rule 5,  There are some very cheap, low risk high reward type players out there.  These are right in teh Twins wheelhouse.  Gamble on the cheap and see if you hit the lottery.
So the first one isn't a FA or rule 5 but he is the type of player that COULD be.  1B/OF Dom Smiht of the Mets.  Dom is a GG caliber 1B.  This kid actually CAN hit. He has just never been given consistent ABs in a consistent position in the field being behind Pete Alonso on teh Mets depth chart.  Between 2019 & 2020 while playing in 139 games (close enough to a full season equivalent). he hit .299 with a .936 OPS. 31 doubles and 21 HR.  and struck out less than 25% of the time.  Now at 27 years old, he is no longer a "cornerstone" player for the Mets and could be had relatively cheaply via trade.  Why do we need him? I mean we have Kiriloff coming back healthy (hopefully), we have Miranda (possibly.. unless 3B opens up) Arraez was an AS 1B, but is he true 1B?   I would have no problem getting Smith even if it meant Kiriloff is "blocked".
The next 2 are both available ot be plucked from teh Angels.
 
First is Touki TOussaint.  Touki was DFA'd to make room on 40 man roster. CLAIM HIM!!!!  He has been flashy and dominant in short stretches in his career.  He is a perfect Twin. he can start or relieve. His control is his main issue, but he also has a big lively arm.   GO ahead an claim him. Low risk high reward.
 
FInally an even bigger stretch, is to make a claim via the Rule 5 draft.  Draft Jordyn Adams. an OF  from the Angels system. Normally I would say this type of move should ONLY be done by a non contending team.  Taking a flier on a player who is clearly not ready for the big leagues, but keep him as a bench player anyways. Who cares if you lose? you get a potential player put him on roster all year and then develop him the following years.  He does strike out a bit, but after striking out nearly 42% of the time last year he cut that rate down to just under 29% his .238 avg still leaves something ot be desired, but it was an improvement over his .217 the year before... AND he improved from .228 to .249 after the promotion to AA. Bu treally there is one reason he should be in play. His truly elite speed, a true 80 on a 10-80 scouting scale.  With upcoming rule changes shifting more of a focus back to a speed and hitting game vs pure power game, these are the kind of players you want to have. Claim him, let him take a bench role, and 4th/5th OF type slot. perfect pinch runner, and his defense is elite in the OF with his speed. (arm not as much), but again SPEED SPEED SPEED!!!!.  Let him be a back up, occasional starter and bat him 9th. He could be a Jarod Dyson type player. just an absolute pest  a pinch runner where you scream from the dugout "GO ON THE NEXT PITCH" and he can still swipe the bag. Do NOT underestimate the difference the bigger bases will make when it comes to the value of speedsters. Bunt hits will be at there highest total in decades, stolen bases will too.  And hey, you catch lightning in a bottle and he is a Akil Baddoo type.
 
These moves will cost next to nothing from a payroll perspective.  And these are exactly the kind of players you build a TEAM with. they wont be starters (Dom would), but they will contribute.  and seriously who do we have that would be any significantly better than them?  a Adams will cost you a Garlick, but if we are relying on Garlick our season is tanked anyways.