InterQuartileFlange

Also, because I was bored and am not going grocery shopping in this muck: Odorizzi threw more than 400 innings from 2014-2016 with both his ERA and FIP below 4 and a K/9 above 8. His poor 2017 (ERA/FIP > 4, fWAR < 2) has been much discussed. But it made me curious-who fit those criteria from 13-15 and had a poor 16.... and how'd they perform in 2017? Turns out there were 12 pitchers who saw a similar dropoff after a recent track record of success. 8 of them threw 100+IP in 2017: Mike Fiers, Jordan Zimmerman, Patrick Corbin, Wade Miley, Yovani Gallardo, James Shields, Sonny Gray, and the former Tiger/new Twin who shall not be named. 5 of these stories ended poorly, with 2017 being a worse season for the pitcher. 1 was a tiny bit more rosy as James Shields went from atrocious (5.85 ERA/6.01 FIP/-1.1 WAR) to... still bad (5.23/5.83/-0.2). The two who succeeded: Corbin and Gray. These two, like Odorizzi, were the only ones from that set under 30 years old in 2017. There are certainly differences (Odorizzi's BABIP was much lower than any of the 8, Groundballers like Corbin/Gray fared much better than FBprone folks like [redacted], Shields, and Zimmerman) but Odorizzi's whiff rate and K/9 both stood out against that group. The endpoints are aribtraryish and I've only looked at a year so nobody should read too much into this, other than "If you've had a track record of success and can miss bats, a bad season before you're 30 isn't a death sentence". I'd say "Who has bounceback seasons?" for pitchers like this would be an interesting place to look for anyone else with an itch to pop open Excel tonight though.

For whatever it's worth (very little): Palacios strikes me as both front offices acting intelligently. Taking Tampa at their word (although sadly, no front offices are likely to reply with "eh, he's just a guy"), they've scouted Palacios and like him. Palacios is also likely undervalued due to being on the Twins and being the 4th/5th best SS under 25 in the system. My take from the various prospect reports has been that there were a number of orgs where he'd have been in the Top 10 (see also: the Pirates return for Cole). They likely feel they found someone who was undervalued in the baseball and prospect community. From the Twins standpoint, they found someone who (compared to the community) overvalued Palacios. They flipped him to get 2 years of a starter who has had past success going into his Age 28 season. The return isn't as appealing as say, Cole, but the cost was far less. For the similar price, I'd rather have Odorizzi than Moore-but we'll get a chance to watch that play out this season. The 19 17 pages of this thread seem to have a bit of an undercurrent where reaction to the move is getting crossed with reaction to not making [poster's preferred move]. Kudos to those who have been able to discuss without conflating the two.