Bryan Borchardt

I would be happy with a .750 OPS, but remember he finished last year at .727 even after the poor start. A .750 OPS would put his WAR somewhere around 4.3, leaving him in the 7-10 range for CF's again. Sure, .850 is a stretch, but I don't think it's out of reach.

For the Minnesota Twins 2017 was a year that surpassed the expectations of most fans. The team made the playoffs, and the manager kept his job (though we finally got rid of Neil Allen). One of the most encouraging features of the 2017 season was Byron Buxton's performance, which netted him a career high 3.5 Wins Above Replacement, placing him 11th among center fielders in 2017. Buxton took a huge step forward in 2017 and we're all hoping for more in 2018. These hopes got me wondering, what would the next step look like? And how would we measure that? The question brought me over to Fan Graphs tonight where I spent most of my evening dissecting the calculations for WAR and coming up with what I think could be a reasonable estimate. It goes without saying the much of Buxton's WAR value is derived from his defensive skills in center field and on the base paths. For this exercise lets assume he stays consistent there with only a slight bump for playing a couple more games in 2018 as opposed to 2017. What this means is that the majority of the improvement will need to come at the plate, and after the strong finish in 2017, it makes sense that we could see another nice jump for Buxton offensively in 2018. So what does it look like? In order to be a top five center fielder in MLB Buxton would have to finish the season with about 6 WAR, an improvement of 2.5 Wins over 2017. I was curious, so I did the math. The results I think are in reach, but it would be a very impressive season. To get Buxton to 6.0 WAR he would need to produce a slash line of .296/.353/.494, including 23 homers and an OPS of .848. I think every Twins fan would be happy with that sort of a performance. Of course this is just one of the infinite number of ways to product 6.0 WAR, but it is one that seems in reach for Buxton. The other key takeaway I have for tonight is that Mike Trout is good. Trout has had two seasons of over 10 WAR, and even though Buxton would have superior fielding and base running WAR, he'd still have to hit about 30 HR's and hit .309/.424/.547 to reach the 10 WAR level. Which of course, would make him the best player on the planet.

Exactly. Even without trying to win the team still makes money and is still worth a billion dollars.

Before we begin let me get one thing out of the way, the Twins are making money. The team is profiting and the owner is increasing his wealth by retaining ownership of the team. There is no doubt about that. As a business professional I can accept this as the way of the world and I am OK with it. However, as a fan I don’t care about earnings and wish the front office had added Lance Lyn and Yu Darvish this offseason. Maybe, though, even as a fan I should care about earnings. At least a little bit. The way that teams earn their money these days is vastly different than it used to be. Once upon a time I imagine that ticket sales were the main thing on the mind of every front office executive. Tickets were likely what made or broke a team not long ago. But in today’s world things are different. With MLB Advanced Media, Local TV and Radio Agreements, and the National TV deal for MLB generating revenue for each team, an organization that had 0 fans at all 82 of their home games could still turn a profit with a moderate MLB Payroll (see: Miami Marlins). As fans it is tough to stomach any team in MLB managed in such a way as the Marlins are, but it really says a lot about the strength of the game, and the games ability to produce revenue that a team’s management can see their best strategy for making money as also one that will garner them the least amount of fan support. It really is mind boggling. The best strategy for the Twins, at least at this moment in time, appears to be winning more games, and bringing more fans to Target Field in order to make more money. This makes us both happy and proud of our team. It is important that we understand that they are running a business and are also trying to make as much money as possible. It is part of Dave St Peters job as President and CEO to increase the profits the team makes each year. Even as fans we should remember that making bad baseball decisions can lead to a decrease in profits, and a decrease in profits is just the sort of thing that would make a stingy team owner feel justified in cutting the payroll in half. What I’m trying to say is that a team’s earnings matter, that earnings determine what the team is able to do in free agency. This is because owners care about earnings just as much as we care about our paychecks. Last year, for example, the Seattle Mariners had a payroll of $172M, and drew just 2.1M fans. Did they earn money in 2017? Yes. Was the team owner happy with the amount of earnings relative to the amount of money spent? Probably not. On the other end of the spectrum the San Diego Padres and their League low payroll of $49M in 2017. The Padres actually had total attendance of 3,000 more fans than did the Mariners, and with the lower payroll the team likely had earnings of over $100M more than the Mariners. Case in point, the offseason activities of both of these teams is predictable given their results. The Mariners payroll is down 7% from last year, while the Padres spent the third most of any team in free agency this winter. The Twins payroll projected to climb about 24% in 2018. As a result, it may be difficult for the team’s earnings to keep pace with the spending this year. The Pohlads will still get a fat check at the end of the year, it’s just that it may be less than it was last year. And frankly, they don’t pay the teams management to make them less money. They are paying them to make more. So what will it take in 2018 to make the owners happy? My guess is that Falvey and Levine are already preparing for this with phrases like “recovering from rock bottom attendance” and “Investing in the future”. That said, an earnings increase is still well within reach. In an earlier blog post I projected attendance would increase by 6.7% over 2017, bringing to attendance up to just under 2.2M. And while I think that is a fair increase, I’m projecting that if they were to finish there the teams earnings after all the bills are paid would actually be $7M less in 2018 than 2017. The team would still make a very significant profit, just that it would be $7M less than last year. Or, in baseball terms, good relief pitching money. So the goal should be to keep profits in 2018 even with 2017 after the increase in payroll. To do so attendance would actually have to increase about 13% over 2017, which would bring them into the neighborhood of 2.3M fans for the year. And how much is 13%? It rolls off the tongue easily and one might say it sounds reasonable. But given the fact that attendance has only increased 13% or more four times since 1990, with one of those times being after a strike and another after a new stadium, I’d say 13% will be a difficult number to achieve. But it will be worth keeping an eye on. And to help out with earnings, let’s be sure to buy our beers inside the stadium instead of across the street at Kierans, it’s for the good of the team.

Are you not entertained? Are you not entertained?? After years of luke-warm stove off seasons the new front office has made their mark on the roster by signing five players to the big league roster who are ready and able to contribute on opening day. Add to that the trade for Jake Odorizzi and you’re talking nearly 25% of the 25 man roster acquired this off season from outside the team. What is particularly stunning about these additions is the money which was spent on acquiring the players. While the latest additions, Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison appear to be team friendly deals, Lynn will still be the 4th highest paid player on the roster in 2018 and Morrison the 9th. Call is savvy management, or call it bargain hunting, these guys will command a healthy share of the Twins payroll in 2018. In fact, if you look at the 2018 Base Salaries of the five free agents the Twins signed, plus the $2M paid to Michael Pineda in 2018, the total ($34M) is the fourth highest for 2018 salaries paid behind only the Phillies ($56M), Cubs ($53M) and Rockies ($42.3M). Surprised? I was. And what is even more impressive is that these short term deals will allow the front office to continue to have roster flexibility into the future, particularly when the likes of Hughes and Mauer come off the books. After all the dust settles, it looks as though the Twins opening day payroll will be right around $130M. While this is an increase of about 24% over 2017’s opening day number, it puts the Twin’s only right around the median of all MLB teams in terms of total payroll. And how do we feel about being in the middle of the pack for payroll? I’ll take it. Particularly when the front office appears to be adding players in a smart way, to what is already a solid roster of young talent.

Tom Froeming: The source I found had average ticket price up 18.9%, so we should see a nice bump in revenue if attendance increases as well.

The last time I check Baseball is still a business. We can be sure the owners believe that, and in most cases it seems the players think so too. But what about the fans? If fans do consider baseball to be a business, they would show it via the money and time they spend watching games. When the Twins promised to put a strong team on the field in exchange for a new stadium, they delivered with 94 wins and a playoff appearance in 2010. The payroll increased by 44%, to a then record level of $97.6M. And as promised, the fans showed up to the tune of all time record attendance of 3.22M. The honeymoon would not last. Since that time the payroll has increased by an average of 0.9% per year, while attendance decreased each of the last six years prior to 2017. On field performance has been the primary driver of this attendance decrease, but with the Twins outlook beginning to look more positive, what type of impact will that have on the attendance level for 2018? The number is likely less than you think. Since 1990, overall attendance per game has increase by 10% or more just five times, including the first year of Target field when attendance increased by 33% per game from the prior year. Of course that 33% increase is nothing compared to the 78% increase in the “get to know ‘em” year of 2001. That said, the 78% increase brought total attendance to a measly 1.78M, 180,000 less than the lowest year at Target field in 2016. History tells us a more reasonable expectation would be more around 6.6% increase, which is the average increase for the second consecutive winning season for the Twins dating back to 1990 (1992, 2002 & 2009). With a schedule of 82 home games this would translate to total attendance 2.213M for the Twins in 2018. However, considering the fact that there will be two home games in Puerto Rico this year, total attendance would come in closer to 2.159M, an increase of just 5.2% in total. And what about those two games in Puerto Rico? According to the collective bargaining agreement, “Clubs that have one or more home games replaced by an International Play Event shall be compensated for lost revenue”. A discussion of this seems like a project for another day.

For the first time since the Byung-Ho Park experiment the Twins front office has made a concerted effort to fill the DH position with a capable every day bat. In 2017 the likes of Robbie Grossman and Kenny Vargas filled the DH role in a not so exciting fashion. While Grossman was serviceable due to his high OBP (.361), the ugly three strikeout game in last years playoffs and the lack of home run power left a more than a little to be desired. Next in line was Vargas, whose perpetually declining OBP and 29% strikeout rate have begun to outweigh the power potential that we once dreamed of. All this, has led the front office to move in another direction. The offseason has been slow, but like fantasy football drafters who wait around in the auction for the right guy at the right price, the Twins found their guy late with the addition of Logan Morrison. The burly left hander who hit 3 of his 38 homers against the Twins last summer (including a 15th inning game winner in the 15th inning on on May 28th) will be joining the Twins this spring as the likely first option at the DH spot. There he will bring his .516 slugging % (.433 career) to a spot in the Twins lineup that slugged just .404 in 2017. Morrison had a career year in 2017, but at age 30 the risk of signing him to a one or two year deal seems more than reasonable. The result of all of this is a very strong lineup for the Twins from 1 - 9, a team that scored the 7th most runs in the league in 2017 just got better at one of the worst spots in the lineup.