Muss0070

I think this article would be more well written if you included: 1. Why you think one projection is more accurate than the other. 2. Your projection. 3. Is WAR as your baseline to determine deviations the best way of approaching this? I am not sold on it personally. 4. Analysis on players that may have had "fluke" years. (I.e. arraeza, Taylor rogers, duffey, Pineda, Buxton, sano)

I like the article a lot. Provides in-depth analysis as to Homerun hitters tendency to "Go Yard" or "Go hit the Pine." Next time, it would be valuable to see the raw data that the percentages and charts are based upon (i.e. I had to look up to see how many plate appearances that Dozier (705 PA and 141 SO) had versus Mauer (597 PA and 83 SO). Another correlating argument would be to then compare the OBP% against the K% to better understand if the players that have a higher K% are positively or negatively correlated with a higher or lower OBP. My one "sleeper" that I found in this article is Jorge Polanco. I like how his K% is low (78 Ks in 544 PAs = 14.33%) and provided more power than Joe Mauer (14 HR in 544 PAs versus Mauer's 7 in 597 PAs). Maybe Polanco should the first basement next year?

Interesting post on the quality of pitches, however it is difficult to understand from a normal readers view. How does FIP or SIERA measure to determine an effective pitcher? I understand ERA is earned runs per 9 innings. How does a pitcher with a 2.00, 3.00, 4.00, 5.00 ERA fall into the QOP Scale if between 4-5 QOP rating is the average? I do not believe your line graph makes a whole lot of sense to me. According to the graph, as the “ERA/FIP/SIERA” increases (vertical y axis), the QOP Pitcher Effect (horizontal x axis) decrease by -0.5? So, if I am looking for the median of 5 QOP, which is the 0.0 x axis, the pitcher has an average ERA of approximately 4.75, FIP of 4.5, and a SIERA of 4.25? This line graph is difficult to understand. In my mind, a pitcher with an ERA of 4.75 would have a much lower QOP. I believe if you made the x axis scaling between 1-10 (and correlate to the QOP Scale that has QOP buckets of 0-2, 2-4, 4-5, 5-6, 6-8, and 8+), then this would give the reader a better understanding of how ERA/FIP/SIERA is truly affected by QOP. The line graph however depicts a different message to me, and is not easy to interpret for the average “layman non-statistics major” like myself. There is good information here, however I believe the message was not delivered clear enough of how having a QOP in the various buckets relates to a pitcher in the average bucket. 1. Where does the twins starting pitchers fall into each bucket on the QOP scale? 2. Where does the twins bullpen stand compared to a team with an elite bullpen (such as the Yankees or Dodgers)? 3. How does Ervin Santana (Near Elite) compare to Clayton Kershaw (Elite)? 4. What was Fernando Rodney’s QOP in his successful saved games versus his blown saves in 2017? 5. What about Matt Belize in 2017 (9 saves and 2 blown saves)? 6. Can this be translated to hitters as well? Such as, what was the QOP of the at bat that Joe Mauer hit a home run, versus the QOP of the AB's that Mauer slapped a single?

For a guy who is making $23M this year to be a 1B, which historically is a power hitters position, you can't be happy with the fact that there is a "more likely than not" chance that he will hit less than 10 home runs, drive in less than 60 runs, and have a an average of .280. You know who could also do that? Probably every first baseman in AAA. Mauer past 4 seasons (2014-2017) average stats: 66 runs, 8 homer runs, 60 RBIs, .277 AVG, .361 OBP, and .389 SLG Salary: $23M Age: 31-34 How about the Twins sign a better "washed up" First Baseman that actually produces stats at the plate? Player B past 4 season average stats: 55 Runs, 26 Homeruns, 71 RBIs, .239 AVG, .314 OBP, and .463 SLG Salary: $2M Age: 26-29 Player B is Pedro Alvarez, a free agent who will outperform Mauer every damn day and signed a 1 year deal with the Orielles for $2M in 2017. Mauer may be "Minnesota Nice" but if the Twins sign Mauer for a contract extension who is a slap hitting, singles hitter, then I also hope that they give Ichiro Suzuki a call in the off-season as well. Look at the 2017 Free Agent 1B class that were signed by other teams: Mike Napoli - $6M by Rangers Mitch Moreland $5.5M by Redsox Chris Carter $3.5M by Yankees Pedro Alvarez - $2M by Oreilles Adam Lind - $1.5M by Nationals I'll take any one of those 1B for 1/4th of Mauer's asking price which will run in the $10-14M range. Mauer should join Tebow's path, and give it a shot at trying out for the NFL and pursuing other career aspirations. Long story short, if Minnesota re-signs Mauer over Dozier, they are absolutely insane and should clean out upper management. Speaking of the Twins signing washed up old dudes, I'm glad to see that Fernando Rodney signed a 1 year $8M contract last month. @Lenzy2108 - great blog article. I look forward to reading future write-ups by you that have engaging points backed up by statistical analysis. My critique for future articles is to tell the story from both sides of the plate, it was very easy to determine your bias when reading this. That bias sparked me to type the above post. Props to you my friend!