MaxOelerking

Twins fans over the past few season have been extremely critical of Max Kepler and his terrible offensive production vs LHP. The criticism was rightly deserved, because his numbers were atrocious. Twins territory has been pleasantly surprised by his improvement vs LHP, but now his numbers vs RHP are dropping. Here are Kepler's splits from 2015-2017.
 
vs RHP: .258/.332/.471
vs LHP: .188/.259/.288
 
So against RHP, Kepler was solid at the plate. He reached base and hit for power. Against LHP, his numbers reflected that of a pitcher...
 
Now, here are Kepler's splits in 2018.
 
vs RHP: .200/.299/.335
vs LHP: .288/.360/.576
 
With 269 plate appearances, there is no need to panic just yet. His numbers vs RHP are not as bad has his previous numbers vs LHP. Plus, his numbers vs LHP are not much better than his previous production vs RHP.
 
In short, no, obviously our German right fielder is not broken. If he can become consistent vs both RHP and LHP, he will become much tougher to matchup against, and overall be more productive day in and day out.

With all the technological advancements made in baseball, its easy to get lost in the mess. There's new stats that make zero sense to some people, but the issue is just understanding what they tell us. Batting average and ERA are easy to grasp. What percentage of this batter's at-bats have resulted in hits? How many earned-runs does this pitcher give up on average in 9 innings? These are how we read stats, because they answer our questions. So what question does launch angle and exit velocity answer? "It just shows how hard a player hits the ball.", is an answer that makes me cringe because its so far from the truth. Yes, it is used to see who's hitting the ball the hardest, but that's not a question we need answered. The question shouldn't be "how hard can he hit it?", rather we should be asking "how well does he hit it?" and "how often does he hit it well?".
 
What makes for a well hit ball? The magic numbers lie between 10 to 30 degrees. Batted balls that are hit at these angles off the bat have the greatest chance to fall for a hit (or better yet home runs). Why does this matter? Because if a player is able to hit a ball consistently this way, he will have more hits (higher batting average for those who will never be convinced that Statcast is a good thing). Even if a guy can't hit the ball 100+ mph, he can have success with a good launch angle.
 
There is an opposite end of the Statcast love-hate spectrum. Those that gush over exit velocity and nothing else. This group of people are just as bad, if not worse, than Statcast haters. This is the over excitable group that is driving the non-believers away. Don't get me wrong, I love it when guys hit 110+ mph moonshots. But if a guy hits a ball 100 mph and grounds out to third, its just a ground out. Launch angle should be the most important thing we look at when it comes to analyzing hitters. Is it okay for players to have low launch angles? Absolutely! Dee Gordon is wasting his time if he's trying to lift the ball over the fence because he's built and has the ability to slap the ball up the middle and leg out singles. For players like Mookie Betts or Chris Taylor, launch angle is extremely important because they lack size and and blazing speed. Betts (5'9" 180lbs) and Taylor (6'1" 190lbs) look the exact opposite of power hitters, but they are still able to hit 20+ homers a year.

Chris Taylor is a perfect example of a player that revived his career by improving his average launch angle. Below are his average launch angle, average exit velocity, % of batted balls hit between 15 and 30 degrees, along with his corresponding stats.
 
2015 and 2016
Avg. Launch Angle............................11.0 deg.
Avg. Exit Velocity...............................86.6 mph
Stats: .187/.236/.277
 
 
2017 and 2018
Launch Angle....................................12.0 deg.
Exit Velocity.......................................87.1 mph
Stats: .281/.344/.488
 
It took just a 1 degree increase in average launch angle and 0.5 mph increase in average exit velocity to go from a -1.0 WAR player to a 4.9 WAR player. Chris Taylor is not the only example either.
 

Here is another example, this time looking at Anthony Rendon. This was a player who was already a solid hitter who was able to progresses even more.
 
2015 and 2016
Avg. Launch Angle............................14.5 deg.
Avg. Exit Velocity...............................90.5 mph
Stats: .268/.346/.419
WAR: 4.4
2017 and 2018
Launch Angle....................................18.2 deg.
Exit Velocity.......................................89.6 mph
Stats: .300/.399/.521
WAR: 6.0
 
Rendon's improvements also show us that a slight decrease in average exit velocity does not cause is drop in offensive production. Rendon also increased his average launch angle by 3.7 degrees and had a huge jump in offensive value, making him one of the most underrated third basemen in the MLB.
 
In closing, if I was not able to change anyone's mind about the use of Statcast data, I hope I was able to prove that this information has a place in the game. Radar guns were once seen as overrated too when collecting data on pitchers.

Last year at DH for the Twins looked like this:
 
Player PA R OBP SLG wOBA
Robbie Grossman 257 39 .336 .398 .320
Kennys Vargas 129 17 .310 .425 .313
Miguel Sano 100 7 .300 .267 .254
Eduardo Escobar 74 7 .297 .424 .308
Joe Mauer 57 8 .386 .347 .331
Mitch Garver 12 1 .417 .500 .391
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total 629 79 .326 .384 .309
 
Last year at the plate for Lucas Duda:
 
Player PA R OBP SLG wOBA
Lucas Duda 491 50 .322 .496 .341
 
 
 
The 31 year old played 792 innings last season at 1B for the Mets and Rays.
 
Defensive metrics show he's similar to a Chris Davis or Matt Carpenter, but that is not what the Twins need since Joe Mauer is one of the top defensive 1B in the MLB.
 
Here is my pitch for why the Twins should sign Duda:
 
1. Power (since 2015)
Player SLG ISO XBH/100 HARD%
Lucas Duda .479 .248 12.6 39.2%
Eric Hosmer .463 .169 9.02 32.2%
Chris Davis .486 .252 11.2 41.0%
 
Duda has great power numbers comparable to some of the better 1B power bats over the past few seasons, being in the AL where he can DH will definitely boost his numbers since he can take more at-bats.
 
2. Age
At 31, Duda is no spring chicken, but 1B has been on of the most forgiving positions as players age.
 
Other 31 year-old 1B numbers:
Player Year ISO OBP SLG wOBA
Mike Napoli 2013 .223 .360 .482 .367
Jim Thome 2002 .373 .445 .677 .461
Edwin Encarnacion 2014 .279 .354 .547 .389
Justin Morneau 2012 .149 .333 .440 .330
 
3. Cost
As far as contracts go, the high end Duda would go for is 1-2 years, $10M per season. A lot depends on how the free agent market changes during the off season. If the Twins can sign a defensive catcher in Castro for $8M per, they should be able to spend around the same amount for a power bat, if not more.
 
4. Ballpark
How exciting would it be to see Duda driving balls out over the RF porch onto the concourse? As a lefty, Duda's swing would work perfect at Target Field. He hits 30.3% to CF and 46.2% to RF. 42.1% of his batted balls are hit hard, while less than 20% are hit soft. This combination of hard hit balls being hit to to the right side of the field is a lethal combination at Target Field. Click here for an image of every 2017 Lucas Duda home run with the Target Field dimensions overlaid.
 
 
Conclusion:
The Twins could use Duda as a DH and reliable 1B replacement for Mauer. He would thrive in Target Field and would produce extra pop in the middle of the Twins lineup. I'm a huge Eduardo Escobar fan, and I would love to see him be a key piece for the Twins as well. I believe signing Duda would allow for Escobar to be a full-time utility man at 3B/SS/2B/
 
My projections:
PA R OBP SLG
450 47 .345 .485
500 51 .343 .488
550 64 .340 .490
600 75 .337 .492
650 76 .335 .486
700 81 .333 .482
 
My 2018 lineup:
1. Dozier 2B
2. Mauer 1B
3. Sano 3B
4. Rosario LF
5. Duda DH
6. Polanco SS
7. Buxton CF
8. Kepler RF
9. Castro C
 
 
Thanks for reading and please leave a comment if you agree/disagree with anything.

Last year at DH for the Twins looked like this:
 
Player PA R OBP SLG wOBA
Robbie Grossman 257 39 .336 .398 .320
Kennys Vargas 129 17 .310 .425 .313
Miguel Sano 100 7 .300 .267 .254
Eduardo Escobar 74 7 .297 .424 .308
Joe Mauer 57 8 .386 .347 .331
Mitch Garver 12 1 .417 .500 .391
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total 629 79 .326 .384 .309
 
Last year at the plate for Lucas Duda:
 
Player PA R OBP SLG wOBA
Lucas Duda 491 50 .322 .496 .341
 
 
 
The 31 year old played 792 innings last season at 1B for the Mets and Rays.
 
Defensive metrics show he's similar to a Chris Davis or Matt Carpenter, but that is not what the Twins need since Joe Mauer is one of the top defensive 1B in the MLB.
 
Here is my pitch for why the Twins should sign Duda:
 
1. Power (since 2015)
Player SLG ISO XBH/100 HARD%
Lucas Duda .479 .248 12.6 39.2%
Eric Hosmer .463 .169 9.02 32.2%
Chris Davis .486 .252 11.2 41.0%
 
Duda has great power numbers comparable to some of the better 1B power bats over the past few seasons, being in the AL where he can DH will definitely boost his numbers since he can take more at-bats.
 
2. Age
At 31, Duda is no spring chicken, but 1B has been on of the most forgiving positions as players age.
 
Other 31 year-old 1B numbers:
Player Year ISO OBP SLG wOBA
Mike Napoli 2013 .223 .360 .482 .367
Jim Thome 2002 .373 .445 .677 .461
Edwin Encarnacion 2014 .279 .354 .547 .389
Justin Morneau 2012 .149 .333 .440 .330
 
3. Cost
As far as contracts go, the high end Duda would go for is 1-2 years, $10M per season. A lot depends on how the free agent market changes during the off season. If the Twins can sign a defensive catcher in Castro for $8M per, they should be able to spend around the same amount for a power bat, if not more.
 
4. Ballpark
How exciting would it be to see Duda driving balls out over the RF porch onto the concourse? As a lefty, Duda's swing would work perfect at Target Field. He hits 30.3% to CF and 46.2% to RF. 42.1% of his batted balls are hit hard, while less than 20% are hit soft. This combination of hard hit balls being hit to to the right side of the field is a lethal combination at Target Field. Click here for an image of every 2017 Lucas Duda home run with the Target Field dimensions overlaid.
 
 
Conclusion:
The Twins could use Duda as a DH and reliable 1B replacement for Mauer. He would thrive in Target Field and would produce extra pop in the middle of the Twins lineup. I'm a huge Eduardo Escobar fan, and I would love to see him be a key piece for the Twins as well. I believe signing Duda would allow for Escobar to be a full-time utility man at 3B/SS/2B/
 
My projections:
PA R OBP SLG
450 47 .345 .485
500 51 .343 .488
550 64 .340 .490
600 75 .337 .492
650 76 .335 .486
700 81 .333 .482
 
My 2018 lineup:
1. Dozier 2B
2. Mauer 1B
3. Sano 3B
4. Rosario LF
5. Duda DH
6. Polanco SS
7. Buxton CF
8. Kepler RF
9. Castro C
 
 
Thanks for reading and please leave a comment if you agree/disagree with anything.