John Olson

The Twins are playing bad baseball right now. They look bad, they’re not being managed well. Too many errors, no clutch hitting, no stopper in the rotation or the ‘pen. List goes on. Count mine as 10 complaints. Great job On the recap, Jamie.

Great work, Lenzy, I have the pinstriped home Johan jersey - it’s glorious - used to be my go to for all things Twins related. Great jersey. My new go to, favorite and tier one - the Red Home alternate “TC”. Man, I love the look. Though I hate to see the cremes go, I do like the blue Kasota Gold jerseys just introduced, and if it’s between getting rid of the cremes or getting rid of the red.... we’ll, bye bye creme pinstripes. Great work, again!

Happy Super Bowl Sunday, everyone! If you’re anything like me, another year with no real “dog in the fight” so to speak, I’ll be mostly meandering around the kitchen and living room – eating too much junk, maybe having a drink or two, passively watching the game whilst waiting for a decent commercial to come on. Then, of course, judge them harshly against all of my favorite Super Bowl commercials from the past. My wife asked me who was playing in the Super Bowl last week, I literally had to take a moment and think, thankfully my 10-year-old son chimed in with the correct answer pretty quickly so I was able to save some face. Needless to say, I’m not exactly the world’s biggest football fan (Skol Vikings, though). Baseball is only 11 days away. Time to get excited.A Cardinal Comparison Alright. Credit where credit is due, the inspiration for this comes from an article Brandon Warne wrote at Zone Coverage, where he basically broke down three distinct categories of teams through his lens. Broken down into tiers, he had the Yankees tier – of which we have never ( or should never ) expected the Twins to live up to – the Cardinals tier, and the Rays tier. The article was tailored around roster construction and payroll behaviors, and I think it’s a pretty cogent place to start. On the surface, there is no reason the Twins shouldn’t be operating like the St. Louis Cardinals. According to Sports Media Watch, Minneapolis-St. Paul is the 15th largest sports team media market in the country, outpacing St. Louis with 1.713 million Nielsen homes vs. 1.164 million. The Cardinals “new” one billion ($1B dollar), 15 year television deal with Fox Sports Midwest, signed in 2015, kicked in during the 2018 season and paid the team a cool $50 million dollars. The Twins current television deal with Fox Sports North that runs through 2023, pays an average of $40 million annually. Considering the term, the Twins could feasibly expect their next deal to reach (or exceed) similar numbers. To be fair, being a well-run organization over several decades has some salient advantages also. If we look at simple Forbes valuations of the Cardinals, they rank seventh in all of major league baseball, vs. 22nd for the Twins. If we look at the attendance figures for the 2018 season, the Cardinals had the third highest attendance vs. 19th for the Twins. Without getting into the weeds too much, there is a pretty stark discrepancy in direction the franchises have taken when one brand is worth $110 million and the others is worth $245 million. The amount of revenue per fan coming into the Cardinals organization is $87, the same revenue per fan coming to the Twins is $45. The Cardinals, perennial contenders in one of (if not THE) toughest divisions in baseball, manage to win – and win consistently – despite having some of the “disadvantages” the Twins seem to encumber themselves with every season. The dreaded small market stigma. The last season with a losing record, you might ask? 2007. The Twins, on the other hand, are neck deep in the worst decade (winning percentage-wise) in franchise history, post 1961. Farming Winning is probably a big factor. Everything seems better when you’re winning. Even just winning enough to be competitive every year, it just feels different. Attendance figures, generally, rise during winning seasons – or stretches of winning seasons. Fan investment in the team also tends to go full bore fevered pitch. The city buzzes. Everyone wants to be part of a winner. Fans, players – free agents – all like to be part of a winner. If we really boil it down, though, it's front office management, player development and scouting. When we are talking this tier, the margins between success and failure are razor thin. If you didn’t notice, and I wouldn’t blame you if you didn’t, the Yankees went through a recent rebuilding phase (The urge to laugh hysterically is palpable) – but when you have the kind of resources that could feasibly build a real Death Star (read: buy a team of all-stars, if need be), if you fail to draft and develop well – that team can still field a competent team. For teams like the Twins, and the Cardinals, drafting and developing talent poorly for any stretch of time is a death knell. The Cardinals, however, are the gold standard. Let’s make a quick comparison. In the last decade, just first round draft picks (again, the Cardinals haven’t had a losing season since 2007, so, not exactly low first round picks) the names drafted include Shelby Miller, Kolton Wong, Michael Wacha, Luke Weaver and Dakota Hudson. They account for a 32.7 fWAR, and some pretty competent MLB players. Dakota Hudson was the 93rd ranked MLB prospect in 2018. Mind you, this isn’t even including the Randall Grichuk’s or Oscar Tavares’s (who unfortunately left us too soon), these are just the first rounders. Over that same time frame, the Twins have drafted Kyle Gibson and Byron Buxton who have spent any significant time in the MLB, for a combined 14.6 fWAR. Alex Wimmer threw 7 1/3 IP for the Twins in 2017. Levi Michael has famously (infamously) never figured it out. Kohl Stewart has 36 2/3 IP, all in this last 2018 season, and may be a late bloomer, but has yet to contribute anything meaningful. Nick Gordon, Alex Kirilloff and Royce Lewis might each develop into something special, there is reason to be hopeful. Building a winner from within is key, and that’s all player development, scouting, drafting and a savvy front office. We’ve seen this recently from the Astros and Indians, and to a lesser extent (because of available resources) the Chicago Cubs. Winning brings money, winning brings the desire to play in a specific market – and winning builds trust with the fan base. The Open Window If you’ve hung with me this long, great job, thanks for reading and I appreciate each and every one of you. Really, you don’t know how much it means to me that people actually take an interest in what I have to write. Thank you, from the bottom of my heart. I will end this on a hopeful note for the future. The 2019 season is on the horizon and every team is tied for first place. All of the hallmarks that make the Cardinals the Cardinals, the drafting and scouting, analytics and player development, a smart front office and managerial staff – all of these factors that make the Cardinals the gold standard and placeholder of this middle tier of baseball teams - are things the Twins have motioned and positioned themselves toward. Even as the frustration toward payroll utilization (I feel you, I could’ve written an entire piece on that as well) mounts, let’s not forget the Twins have tangibly moved themselves away from the “old business” – the good ol’ boys club, the antiquated, advanced metric information-phobic era - and sprinted toward embracing new information, coaching methods, erstwhile maintaining payroll flexibility for the next decade. The Twins seem to be pressing all the right buttons toward being a gold standard of their own, and seating themselves in the middle tier. Let’s Go Twins. Click here to view the article

A Quick Intro: Happy Super Bowl Sunday, everyone! If you’re anything like me, another year with no real “dog in the fight” so to speak, I’ll be mostly meandering around the kitchen and living room – eating too much junk, maybe having a drink or two, passively watching the game whilst waiting for a decent commercial to come on. Then, of course, judge them harshly against all of my favorite Super Bowl commercials from the past. My wife asked me who was playing in the Super Bowl last week, I literally had to take a moment and think, thankfully my 10 year old son chimed in with the correct answer pretty quickly so I was able to save some face. Needless to say, I’m not exactly the world’s biggest football fan (Skol Vikings, though). Baseball is only 11 days away. Time to get excited. A Cardinal Comparison Alright. Credit where credit is due, the inspiration for this comes from an article Brandon Warne wrote, where he basically broke down three distinct categories of teams through his lens. Broken down into tiers, he had the Yankees tier – of which we have never ( or should never ) expected the Twins to live up to – the Cardinals tier, and the Rays tier. The article was tailored around roster construction and payroll behaviors, and I think it’s a pretty cogent place to start. On the surface, there is no reason the Twins shouldn’t be operating like the St. Louis Cardinals. According to Sports Media Watch, Minneapolis-St. Paul is the 15th largest sports team media market in the country, outpacing St. Louis with 1.713 million Nielson homes vs. 1.164 million. The Cardinals “new” one billion ($1B dollar), 15 year television deal with Fox Sports Midwest, signed in 2015, kicked in during the 2018 season and paid the team a cool $50 million dollars. The Twins current television deal with Fox Sports North that runs through 2023, pays an average of $40 million annually. Considering the term, the Twins could feasibly expect their next deal to reach (or exceed) similar numbers. To be fair, being a well-run organization over several decades have some salient advantages, also. If we look at simply Forbes valuations of the Cardinals, they rank #7 in all of Major League baseball, vs. 22nd for the Twins. If we look at the attendance figures for the 2018 season, the Cardinals had the 3rd highest attendance vs. 19th for the Twins. Without getting into the weeds too much, there is a pretty stark discrepancy in direction the franchises have taken when one brand is worth $110 million and the others is worth $245 million. The amount of revenue per fan coming into the Cardinals organization is $87, the same revenue per fan coming to the Twins is $45. The Cardinals, perennial contenders in one of (if not THE) toughest divisions in baseball, manage to win – and win consistently – despite having some of the “disadvantages” the Twins seem to embattle themselves with every season. The dreaded small market stigma. The last season with a losing record, you might ask? 2007. The Twins, on the other hand, are neck deep in the worst decade (winning percentage, wise) in franchise history, post 1961. Farming Winning is probably a big factor. Everything seems better when you’re winning. Even just winning enough to be competitive every year, it just feels different. Attendance figures, generally, rise during winning seasons – or stretches of winning seasons. Fan investment in the team also tends to go full bore fevered pitch. The city buzzes. Everyone wants to be part of a winner. Fans, players – free agents – all like to be part of a winner. If we really boil it down, though, its front office management, player development and scouting . When we are talking this tier, the margins between success and failure are razor thin. If you didn’t notice, and I wouldn’t blame you if you didn’t, the Yankees went through a recent rebuilding phase (The urge to laugh hysterically is palpable) – but when you have the kind of resources that could feasibly build a real Death Star (read: buy a team of all-stars, if need be), if you fail to draft and develop well – that team can still field a competent team. For teams like the Twins, and the Cardinals, drafting and developing talent poorly for any stretch of time is a death knell. The Cardinals, however, are the gold standard. Let’s make a quick comparison. In the last decade, just 1st round draft picks (again, the Cardinals haven’t had a losing season since 2007, so, not exactly low 1st round picks) the names drafted include Shelby Miller, Kolton Wong, Michael Wacha, Luke Weaver and Dakota Hudson. They account for a 32.7 fWAR, and some pretty competent MLB players. Dakota Hudson was the 93rd ranked MLB prospect in 2018. Mind you, this isn’t even including the Randall Grichuk’s or Oscar Tavares’s (who unfortunately left us too soon), these are just the 1st rounders. Over that same time frame, the Twins have drafted Kyle Gibson and Byron Buxton who have spent any significant time in the MLB, for a combined 14.6 fWAR. Alex Wimmer threw 7.1 IP for the Twins in 2017. Levi Michael has famously (infamously) never figured it out. Kohl Stewart has 36.2 IP, all in this last 2018 season, and may be a late bloomer, but has yet to contribute anything meaningful. Nick Gordon, Alex Kirilloff and Royce Lewis might each develop into something special, there is reason to be hopeful. Building a winner from within is key, and that’s all player development, scouting, drafting and a savvy front office. We’ve seen this recently from the Astros and Indians, and to a lesser extent (because of available resources) the Chicago Cubs. Winning brings money, winning brings the desire to play in a specific market – and winning builds trust with the fan base. The Open Window If you’ve hung with me this long, great job, thanks for reading and I appreciate each and every one of you. Really, you don’t know how much it means to me that people actually take an interest in what I have to write. Thank you, from the bottom of my heart. I will end this on a hopeful note for the future. The 2019 season is on the horizon and every team is tied for first place. All of the hallmarks that make the Cardinals the Cardinals, the drafting and scouting, analytics and player development, a smart front office and managerial staff – all of these factors that make the Cardinals the gold standard and placeholder of this middle tier of baseball teams - are things the Twins have motioned and positioned themselves toward. Even as the frustration toward payroll utilization (I feel you, I could’ve written an entire piece on that as well) mounts, let’s not forget the Twins have tangibly moved themselves away from the “old business” – the good ol’ boys club, the antiquated, advanced metric information-phobic era - and sprinted toward embracing new information, coaching methods, erstwhile maintaining payroll flexibility for the next decade. The Twins seem to be pressing all the right buttons toward being a gold standard of their own, and seating themselves in the middle tier. Let’s Go Twins.

Over nearly four months, the Twins have approached the 2017-18 offseason with a keen eye on the 2018 regular season, as with 29 other major league teams (well, more or less, I suppose) to hit the ground running for another playoff push and potential run at the World Series. After all, winning the last game of the season should be the target for every team, right? In reality, we as informed fans know these things come in stages. The landscape of baseball, especially at the onset of the season, allows us to stand atop the ridge and survey the battlefield in front of us. The Twins have an opening window, and Twins Territory has seen the bright lights of the playoffs once again after many years of being in the cellar. Looking around the Central Division, we can see our foes and size them up. The White Sox, having dealt away the majority of their established talent over the last few seasons, are in the midst of their rebuilding. The window is not yet open on the South Side, but the future sure does look bright. The Tigers, on the other hand, have had their window shut - after years of dominate teams - the aging stars of the '00's and the early teens have either seen themselves traded away (Verlander, JD Martinez) or succumbing to the effects injuries and age (Victor Martinez, Miggy Cabrera). Father time, after all, gets everyone in the end. Dayton Moore's Royals have also seen their window shutting. Attempting one more valiant push for the playoffs in 2017, only to see their core players from their 2015 World Series winning team slowly leave via free agency (Hosmer, Moustakas, Cain, Alcides Escobar). The Cleveland Indians may still stand atop the Central Division, lead by outstanding starting pitchers Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, as well as phenom shortstop Francisco Lindor, All Star Jose Ramirez at 3B and a healthy Michael Brantley back in left field. An uphill climb for the Twins, to be sure, but not an impossible task. The Indians are not a perfect team, but the onus is on the Twins to usurp them as Division champions. That is where our focus starts, but surely not where it ends. Building a Championship Team, New and Improved The Twins watched for years, or decades, as teams with giant payroll capacity steamrolled their way to championships. Sure, you had the '03 Marlins thrown in for good measure to keep things honest, but the vast majority of World Series winners over the past 20 years have shown that they could afford to sit at the high rollers table. The Cardinals won it all in 2011, but they had the greatest player on the planet, at the time, in Albert Pujols, a hall of fame manager in Tony LaRussa and a pitching staff lead by a former Cy Young winner, the revitalized Cris Carpenter. The Twins never quite had all the stars align to make a run. The Twins, though having compiled many competitive seasons during the 2000's, were never the big fish. We weren't the sharks. We didn't swallow our opponents whole, we nibbled them into submission. We were the pirahna's. We had Cy Young pitchers, we had MVP players, we had great managing and a front office that kept us in the hunt for years. We just never had all of it at the same time. However, the old way of building a championship team - throwing as much money as possible at a roster, accruing as much established talent and stars - is out of fashion. As much chagrin as fans have experienced over these last several months of Hot Stove (or more aptly, Cold Stove) season, we have the Collective Bargaining Agreement to thank for the Luxury Tax threshold penalties, draft penalties, repeat offender penalties, etc. Even the Evil Empire itself has shown incentive to temper their spending, opting instead to embrace the youth movement. Everyone is either in a race to get younger, faster, more talented (and cheaper), or they are tearing down - tanking - in order to start the trudging process of rebuilding. Commodities like JD Martinez, Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta - who, if they had been free agents while the "old", draconian team building method - would have been all but guaranteed to be the largest salary-getters of the offseason. The pedigree and prior performance alone would have garnered bidding races to add them to existing rosters at, perhaps, hundreds of millions of dollars over extended years. The focus has shifted, teams have gotten more informed, more savvy and less willing to be penalized. Young, talented players - starting pitchers, especially - have become the new wave most prized commodity, with teams willing to sell the farm in order to milk the pre-free agency years from these budding stars. Enter: 2018 Minnesota Twins The Twins enter the 2018 season, watching their young core players like Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios, develop into potential stars. Buxton, fresh off his gold glove winning 2017 season in which he turned around a putrid start to the season, with a wRC+ of 59, only to torch the second half to the tune of wRC+ 130. Berrios pitched solidly all season, despite a rough and confusing orientation into the league in 2016, with an ERA of 3.89 and FIP of 3.84 - suggesting that despite the excellent defense behind him, he wasn't solely benefiting from the fruits of their labors. His K/9 rate of 8.59 was the best on the staff, which sorely lacked strikeout pitching, and limited the damage of the long ball. He was a much better pitcher at home (as most pitchers outside of Coors Field or other bandbox parks are), but Berrios will need to keep improving in this way. His wOBA (.246H vs. .345A) is concerning, as is the fact he gave up four times as many home runs on the road as he did at Target Field (3H vs. 12A). All of which lead to his home ERA being significantly lower (2.41ERA) to his road (5.17ERA). The future, though, is bright in Minnesota. Building in the vein of the Chicago Cubs and the Houston Astros, both of whom have experience similar rebuilding efforts in recent years, watching their former high level draft picks like Kris Bryant and Carlos Correa become cornerstones of perennial championship contending teams. The Twins have moved, almost in lock step, watching and proceeding with their rebuild. Buxton and Berrios, both 2012 draft picks, are part of that - as are other young, key contributors like (another) potential star Miguel Sano, Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario. Beyond this season, and perhaps for some - later in 2018, Twins prospects are flooding the pipeline and will be pressing their major league counterparts, soon. Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, Nick Gordon, Brent Rooker and perhaps the most exciting young shortstop prospect since the aforementioned Correa and Lindor - 2017 1st overall draft pick, Royce Lewis. The Twins certainly seem to progressing according to plan. Trust the method. What Needs To Go Right The Twins will likely never be the Chicago Cubs. Even in their worst years, they still drew droves of their rabidly passionate fans to the bleacher seats. They still spent money on free agents. They can adapt to the changing landscape, whether that's a youth movement or attempting to buy a championship. They have the resources and media market to go either way. When the Cubs brought Theo Epstein in to be their "Curse breaker", the same way he had done in Boston years before, he immediately shifted the paradigm in Chicago. No longer would they be middling, buying the Alfonso Soriano's of the world to try to win 84 games. They would tear it down, re-access and build from the inside. He made the "rebuild" cool, because it had vision. "Theoball" has been thrown around as a term for the latest, greatest way to build a team. Its hard to deny, after 3 World Championship teams under his reign - the man is a genius. On the other hand, the Houston Astros are a better model for the Twins to follow - step for step, that is. When the Astros announced in 2011 that they knew they wouldn't be able to compete, in fact, they planned on not being able to compete, and were upfront and honest with their fanbase about their rebuilding approach, I won't lie to you, I thought they were out of their minds. How brazen, how ludicrous, can management be? Not only will we be fielding a 'quad-A' team this season, but for several seasons? The season ticket holders shall surely riot! After 3 straight seasons of 100 loss teams and one 90 loss team, something changed. Their recent draft picks, the ones they had stocked up on - Carlos Correa, Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers Jr., George Springer, Alex Bregman - had all reached the bigs. They were all producing. Correa was a Rookie of the Year. Keuchel won a Cy Young. In 2017, they put it all together and won it all. On the backs and talent of their young stars, AJ Hinch and a management team that had the guts to rebuild when it wasn't popular. The Twins are on the verge of a similar cycle. I won't say that the Twins are guaranteed a World Series if they follow the mold, this is baseball after all, but I will say this - look at the trend. Look at the similarity. In the same way that Theo Epstein and Jeff Luhnow tore it down to build it back anew, Thad Levine and Derek Falvey are massaging this team into a potential championship caliber roster. The talent is emerging, Buxton and Berrios. Sano, Kepler, Rosario, Gonsalves and others. Royce Lewis is on the way, already burning through on the "Joe Mauer track" in the minor leagues. The onus is on management to make sure that this scouted and drafted talent is driven to their full potential. The noise surrounding Anibal Sanchez signing, hearkened back memories to a time when the former Terry Ryan-lead group would pander to the fanbase with mediocre (or plain bad), past-their-prime signings of Bret Boone and Sidney Ponson. But a closer look will see that its calculated. The knee jerk reaction of the fans didn't see, or know, Trevor May wasn't ready to start the year, so his 60 Day DL stint effectively opens up a spot for a flier on a guy like Sanchez. Josh Kalk, Twins pitching analyst and forefather of the pitchF/X, perhaps with others in scouting, may have seen redeeming value in not only Sanchez, but also well-knocked around former top prospect Jake Odorizzi. The talent pool is deep, and the moves are less pandering and more about calculated risk/reward. The same can be said about signing Fernando Rodney, an established closer who - despite pitching in an offensive division and a bandbox park of Chase Field - held on to his closing role with a playoff team in 2017. Newly signed Logan Morrision slugged 38 home runs with the Tampa Bay Rays, opting to join the Twins as (assumably) a primary DH and to spell Joe Mauer at first base. A savvy move, and hard to argue the upgrade quality over a potential Kennys Vargas/Robbie Grossman log-jam. There is reason to be excited. The Missing Piece(s) The missing pieces the Twins have left to fill in this puzzle to assemble a championship team are always going to be the most difficult. As a hopeful bystander during the courting of Yu Darvish, the Twins need a true ace. A stopper every fifth day, someone to right the ship when the dog days hit or the bats disappear. A guy who can win a 1-0 game when the team is in a rut. Johan Santana was the last, true ace in Minnesota, and that was over a decade ago. The Astros had not only Keuchel, their homegrown number 1, but also brought in Justin Verlander as a 1A in 2017. The Cubs in 2016 had their three headed monster of Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks - none of whom had an ERA over 3.10 in the regular season. Even the upstart Royals in 2015 brought in Johnny Cueto to flank their extremely talented and exciting young Yordano Ventura, who before his untimely death, showed promise to be a front line starter for years to come. Darvish, though, signed with the North-Siders in Chicago, and with no other clear ace on the market, the Twins have a choice to either add or stand pat with the remaining starting pitchers on the free agent market. While Jake Arrieta has the name and star power, its likely with his velocity drop and entering his age 32 season, that the days of being an established ace are behind him. Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn, while good pitchers in their own right, are not number 1's. They are number 3's on a good team, and while they would still make solid additions to this years Twins roster, I believe the need for a true ace still exists. Perhaps The Twins could add one at the trade deadline, as the Astros and Royals did during their World Series runs? The possibility exists, and names like Chris Archer and Marcus Stroman have been floated as targets, but will this management team be willing to pay the cost to acquire? Dallas Keuchel (and Clayton Kershaw, but lets not go crazy here) is on the free agent market next season, does it make more sense to wait, let your team gel and develop another year before selling the farm for an Archer or Stroman in trade - use your monetary capital as opposed to your talent capital to get that ace? We all have our individual opinions on the direction our favorite team goes, and many of us feel like we could arm-chair quarterback our way to a World Series - but the powers that be in the General Manager's office and beyond have far more information, and the choice to follow the road they've laid out for us in Twins Territory requires patience, but its compelling. Much has to go right for the Twins to be a World Series Champion in 2018. The last two champions have had Cy Young winners and MVP's leading the charge, that is a high bar for the Twins young talent to clear. The Twins do, however, have the beginnings of a World Series championship caliber team, and who's to say this isn't our year? It is baseball, after all, and anything can happen.

A Closer Look At this point, with the Twins busy Presidents Day weekend now officially come to a close, it can be said that most people (and those who frequent Twins Daily, especially) are aware that the hometown club completed a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi. The trade, first reported on Saturday night, had the Twins receiving Jake Odorizzi from the Rays in exchange for mid-level shortstop prospect Jermaine Palacios. Many were waiting for the other shoe to drop, certainly the Twins were not going to get Odorizzi - straight up - for a single prospect, and certainly not if that prospect was outside of their top 10 or 15 rankings. After all, Jermaine Palacios, while a nice prospect and grades well - especially defensively - is 21 years old and playing at High A ball. Keith Law ranked Palacios at 24th best and MLB.com listed him as their 27th best prospect, and well behind other more highly touted shortstops in the system - namely, Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon and Wander Javier. So how is it that the Twins achieved this kind of trade? What does that say about Odorizzi? The answer is probably much more complicated, Perhaps the Rays were, indeed, very smitten with Palacios. His tools do grade out to stick at shortstop, albeit his upside looks to be more of a utility man than a regular. It seems unlikely the Twins were bidding against themselves, to be able to get a straight 1 for 1 on Odorizzi, and he has been rumored to several other teams this offseason including the Angels, Nationals, Yankees and Orioles. How is it that among several teams vying for a competent major league pitcher, the Rays weren't able to add more than a single mid-level prospect in return? Lets not forget, either, the Rays top prospect in their system - Willy Adames - is a shortstop and a potential star at the MLB level. Palacios figures to be, at minimum, blocked at the MLB level for several years by Adames who has already progressed to Double-A and was a Southern League All-Star. The Rays not only traded Odorizzi for a single prospect, but the prospect they received is likely system depth? So perhaps the better question is, what does the trade say about the other clubs perceived value of Jake Odorizzi? Who is Jake Odorizzi? Depending on who you ask and under what context, you'll get a different answer to this question. Around Twins social media, I've seen such differing opinions - from "Should he be the Opening Day starter? He may be our best pitcher" to "He's, at best, a number 4 starter". I would contend that he is likely the middle ground between these two, very different statements. As background, Odorizzi was a first round draft pick (2008 32nd Overall, Brewers), reaching Class A in the Brewers system. He was traded in the offseason following the 2009 season to the Kansas City Royals where he, by the 2011 season, was ranked as the Brewers number 1 prospect. While he wasn't the primary piece in the trade that sent him from Kansas City to Tampa Bay (Wil Myers headlined that blockbuster trade, sending James Shields and Wade Davis to Kansas City in exchange for Myers, Odorizzi, and two others.) he was a key element, ranking as the Royals 4th best prospect in their system at the time. After receiving a cup of coffee in the majors in both 2012 and 2013, accruing only 37 innings pitched through those two seasons, he has 4 full seasons in the majors. By standard metrics he's been a valuable mid-rotation arm - putting up ERA's of 4.13, 3.35 and 3.69 in 2014-'16, with park adjusted xFIP of 3.90, 3.96 and 4.44, respectively. His K/9 average during the first three seasons was a respectable 8.42, while maintaining an average HR/FB rate of 9.9%, or just slightly below the MLB average. Wait. What about 2017? Notice that I omitted 2017 from his stat lines? I thought you might. Odorizzi had, by most accounts, an abysmal 2017 season. Limited to 143.1 innings in 2017 after two trips to the Disabled List (hamstring, back injury), he saw regression in multiple areas. His ERA, at 4.14, the worst mark he's had since his rookie season - in conjunction with a horrid 5.43 FIP. His 3.83 BB/9 mark fell well below league average and his HR/FB was an awful (almost impressively awful if I hadn't seen Kyle Gibsons 18%HR/FB mark) of 15% - all while seeing his GB% fall to 30.6%. Unsurprisingly, Odorizzi gave up 30 home runs in 2017 and the long ball indeed was a crux, paired with a 7.52 ERA during the third trip though the order. Fatigue, injury, and you can't even chalk it (all) up to bad luck, with a very low .227 BABIP. So, what's the forecast for 2018? Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs has a very compelling article that suggests Odorizzi may be an adjustment away from rectifying some of his issues from last season. His elevated four-seam fastball approach, which reached was tied for the highest 4S fastball height in the major leagues. Sawchik suggest that pairing the increased height with with increased height of his split-change, he may be losing "tunneling", or the vertical separation between the four-seamer and his split-change up, which generally produced his highest whiff rate (22%) in his arsenal of pitches. Twins pitching coach, the newly hired Garvin Alston, has stressed that locating the fastball with his staff is a top priority and it would seem that as Odorizzi's fastball goes, so goes the season for Odorizzi. As Brooks Baseball's player card for Odorizzi reads "(Odorizzi's) four-seam fastball generates an extremely high number of swings and misses compared to other pitchers fourseamers". In a nutshell, if he can effectively locate his fastball and mix in his split-change up with better tunneling, his chances of returning to a pre-2017 Jake Odorizzi are fairly good. How Good Is He? Twins Pitching Analyst, Josh Kalk, hired this past December and formerly a Senior Analyst for the Tampa Bay Rays likely has as much information on Odorizzi as anyone, and it would follow that recommendations he may have had on Odorizzi held some weight in regards to the Twins trading for him. That said, what can we expect from him in the upcoming 2018 season? Odorizzi, at 4 full years in the league, has shown the consistency (apart from 2017, which may or may not be an anomaly) of a number 3 or 4 starter, depending on the rotation he's placed in. Baseball Reference has similar pitchers as Danny Salazar and Jeremy Hellickson - and if he pitches like pre-2017 Odorizzi is a fair comparision, though I would argue he would be a perfect bridge between those two pitchers. He won't miss as many bats as Salazar and will miss more bats than Hellickson, when on. Salazar, when healthy (and maybe not pitching in the same rotation as Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco), is likely a number 2/3 (his peripherals are great, with 12.8 K/9 and a FIP of 3.48 - but he walks too many hitters) and Hellickson is likely a number 5 (if you wanted to look at worst case scenario of progression for Odorizzi, I would look at the staggering decline of Hellickson post-2016.) Conclusion So, no. I don't believe Odorizzi is the Twins best pitcher. Jose Berrios will likely hold that mantle this season, barring a trade for an established ace or a surprise signing of Jake Arrieta. Even Santana, if healthy and capable or repeating (or coming close to repeating) his 2017 season would provide superior results. That said, the Odorizzi trade gave the Twins something they need - an arm capable of holding down a middle of the rotation spot, keep them in games and get some K's when needed. He slots nicely in between Berrios, Santana when he returns, with Gibson occupying the 4 spot. Temper your expectations, Twins fans. We didn't sneak one by the Rays and snag a front of the rotation starter, but we did get a young, controllable, arbitration eligible middle of the rotation-type arm - for essentially a High A projected utility infielder. That's pretty impressive. Twitter: @four_six_three

State of the Twins - Starting Rotation Baseball is back. Pitchers and catchers have reported to the Twins Spring Training site in Fort Myers, along with a sprinkling of position players - including Joe Mauer, who we can only suspect is in "the best shape of his life" at this point in his career. All jokes aside, the 2018 season is just around the corner and it doesn't come without some question marks, most notably, the state of the starting rotation. If you're a regular to Twins Daily, or follow the Twins social media outlets, Ervin Santana's injured finger will put him on the shelf for 10-12 weeks and has been widely reported. Santana, 2017 Twins Opening Day starter and All Star, will likely miss the entire opening month of the 2018 season while recovering from this injury. By my estimation, that would put breakout star from the 2017 season Jose Berrios in line for the Opening Day start and the defacto number one starting pitcher to start the year. With few "locks" in the rotation, Santana, Berrios and Kyle Gibson likely being the only three starters guaranteed a starting spot, that leaves a quandary for the remaining two starting jobs - and in all reality, with Santana's injury, 3 starting jobs. The Twins entered the post season with the goal of addressing a few areas, starting pitching and the bullpen being of primary concern. While they addressed the bullpen - Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed and Zack Duke being added via free agency this winter, the only starting pitcher add was Michael Pineda. While I love the addition of Pineda - I believe there could be a huge potential for value there, post-Tommy John for the former Yankee/Mariner - he is not projected to be available until late summer, perhaps even September at the earliest. So, for all intents and purposes, his 2 year deal is focused on potential value in the 2019 season and perhaps the 2018 playoffs. The Twins primary target in this offseason free agent market, Yu Darvish, signed a 6 year/ $126 Million dollar deal with the Chicago Cubs. Reportedly the Twins were not willing to extend an offer past 5 years, and while it hasn't been confirmed (to my knowledge) I assume the AAV offered by the Twins was comparable to what he received from the Cubs. I won't beat a dead horse, at this point Darvish is off the table, and while I personally felt the Twins should have done everything feasible to sign Darvish (including a 6th year, opt out clause, no trade/limited no trade, incentives, etc.) I, obviously, am not privy to the details of what the Twins offered. Read: Twins may have done all of that, Darvish may have just preferred Chicago over everyone else. So, where does that leave us? Well, there was always an opportunity for in-house competition for the 5th starting pitching spot, we'll start there. Phil Hughes, off of his second rib surgery, will be in the mix, along with a post-Tommy John Trevor May. Among those who had a cup of coffee in the majors last year, Aaron Slegers and probably to a lesser extent Felix Jorge, and exciting young pitchers Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero and Zach Littell. Adalbuerto Mejia, who had a fairly up and down 2017, also projects to be competing for a spot - he would be the lone left hander in the rotation, with his experience in 2017 and flashes of ability, I expect him to be among the favorites. The Twins have expressed interest in a few of the remaining free agent pitchers left on the market, including Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb - and also have been loosely connected to Jake Arrieta, though Lavelle E. Neil reported the chances of signing Arrieta were "remote". I would dare say by remote, he means 'snowballs chance in Hades'. I've been wrong before, though. They have also been reportedly interested in the next tier of free agent pitchers - Jaime Garcia, Jason Hammel, Jason Vargas and (I hope its a 'take a flier' kind of interest...) Chris Tillman. Any of those starting pitchers would improve the depth of the starting rotation, only Arrieta would truly provide anything more than a "number 3" type pitcher. Even so, Arrieta at this point in his career, mileage on his arm and truly Phil Hughesian decrease in velocity from 2016 to 2017 (both had a decrease in FB velocity of 2 MPH) he slots better as a number 2 starter. Optimally, signing both Lynn and Cobb to free agent contracts would solidify a Twins rotation. Arrieta would likely require as much, or more, money to sign than Lynn and Cobb combined - he reportedly turned down a Cubs offer that matched or close to matching the $126 Million they gave Darvish, also he is represented by Scott Boras. Signing any of the Garcia-Hammel-Vargas tier would be a solid move for depth in the back end of the rotation, all are very capable of being serviceable 4/5's. Aside from free agency, the Twins offered a formal trade package to the Tampa Bay Rays for Chris Archer. Its hard to say how serious the offer was, or what was included - much speculation had Max Kepler as a primary piece - but Archer is probably the most sought after trade target in baseball. I would suspect any offer the Twins made that didn't include Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton or Jose Berrios was probably a non-starter for the Rays - that said, including any of those names for the Twins would be... well it would be very, very stupid. Jake Odorizzi is also on the Twins radar. I, personally am not excited to part with any highly regarded prospect for Odorizzi, and certainly not for Max Kepler. Potential targets for the Twins could include pitchers Colin McHugh (Astros), Marcus Stroman (Blue Jays), Julio Teheran (Braves), Sean Manaea (A's), among several others. Stroman is more or less in the same boat as Archer, it would take a very solid offer (and a crowbar) to pry him from the Blue Jays. McHugh, in all fairness this pick was inspired by conversation had by Brandon Warne and Ryan Turnquist on their 'Locked on Twins' podcast, may be the odd man out of the rotation/swing-man situation in Houston - he might be a great under the radar pickup in trade. Fangraphs projections actually have him putting up better ERA/FIP and K/9 numbers in 2018 than all current projected Twins starters. Julio Teheran is another interesting target, and I plan on elaborating more on both him and McHugh in a later article. Thank you to all who made it to the end, I appreciate every reader. My intention here on Twins Daily is to upload at least one blog article a week on various topics Twins related, and if you have any suggestions, thoughts or comments please feel free to share them! I can also be found on Twitter @four_six_three if you enjoy more Twins related topics! Twitter @four_six_three

Continuing in the off-season series, today looking at the free agent market for starting pitching: who's available and which members of the current class the Twins could target in the free agent market. The Twins, as most other teams in the league, are in need of starting pitching. They are one of the few teams that consider themselves legitimate postseason contenders - and need to make significant upgrades to the current rotation if they want to make a serious push towards a World Series birth. The returning staff, presumably, for 2018 has essentially three rotation spots locked with Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios and the resurgent Kyle Gibson. Ervin Santana had very solid 2107 season, posting a 3.28 ERA and 211.1 Innings pitched and pitching his way to an All Star game appearance. Not a typical team "Ace", Santana was the most consistent - and consistently good - Twins pitcher during the 2017 season. Jose Berrios emerged after a disappointing 2016 season, to be good for number 2 on the staff in ERA with a 3.89 mark over 145.2 innings. The burgeoning youngster stepped into a rotation spot and lead the team in both K% (22.6%) and FIP (3.84) marks for the staff. Kyle Gibson, on the other hand, played Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde and was a tale of two halves. His 2017 ERA was a very underwhelming 5.07 ERA over 158 Innings, he was demoted in May to AAA, before being called back to the big league club. Upon coming back, however, Gibson seemed revitalized and pitched to a much improved 3.76 ERA in the second half, a dramatic improvement on a terrible 6.31 ERA in the first months of the year. There are some internal candidates for the other two rotation spots, Adelbuerto Mejia and Trevor May ( depending on his Tommy John surgery recovery timetable) may be two options, as well as the up and coming prospects Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero, and others competing for the spots during Spring Training. For the purposes of the article however, we're going to cast aside the notion of filling the spot with internal candidates and see which starting pitchers in free agency the Twins could consider. The 2017-18 Free Agent Starting Pitching Class In an attempt to separate the pack, I have segmented into 3 different "tiers" of pitchers available that i have cleverly named Tier 1, Tier 2 and Tier 3 pitchers. Tier One - The "Ace" Type The headlining free agents this off-season will be Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta, and if they decline their player options, Masahiro Tanaka and Johnny Cueto. Cueto, coming off a sub-par season and with a lucrative $130 Million dollar contract in hand with San Francisco, is widely considered to be less likely to exercise his option while Tanaka's future is a bit more questionable in New York. Despite Thad Lavines' prior relationship with Yu Darvish in Texas, it is unlikely the Twins as an organization will pay the gargantuan salary due for a pitcher of Davish's caliber, probably approaching or exceeding Zack Greinkes 6 year, 206 million dollar mark. The same holds true of Arrieta and Tanaka, who will more than likely command less than Darvish, but their pedigree will undoubtedly put them in the "Johnny Cueto contract" territory. So, this is befittingly a fairly brief breakdown of the only reason why the Twins - whose 4 year $55 million dollar contract given to Ervin Santana constitutes the largest free agent signing in club history - are probably not in play for the big names in this list. * I will say, as a quick note, the Twins should be in on these pitchers - important to distinguish that. Pitcher contracts being what they are and the ownership in Minnesota's track record - I think its unlikely. The Twins also do not have a TV deal like many other clubs, but - the Twins payroll (which I'm sure I'll discuss at some point this winter) has to increase to accommodate contracts larger than, I'll say, the ownership is comfortable with at this time. Tier Two - The "2/3" Type CC Sabathia The 37 year old lefty is coming off another pretty successful season, posting a 3.69 ERA over 148 Innings. While I'd be surprised to see him get anything more than a 2 or 3 year deal for his remaining years, the annual value of his contract should surpass what the Twins likely would be willing to pay for the aging veteran. All signs signal that he would like to remain in Yankee pinstripes, and the club may be willing to oblige considering his strong postseason performance in 2017. He has been nothing but a consistently strong performer, albeit a few personal issues he's had to overcome in recent years, with stronger-than-you'd-think peripheral numbers (4.11 xFIP and 1.9 fWAR). 2. Lance Lynn The right handed Lynn is another popular name on the free agent market, and for good reason. His 3.43 ERA in 2017 is good enough for second in the '17 free agent class, and while he's not young for a starting pitcher at 30 years old, he's certainly got plenty of productive innings left in the arm. MLB Trade Rumors recently reported he has multiple clubs interested in his services and is seeking a contract in the $110 million dollar range. He will certainly he highly sought after, and the Twins may not be able to keep up with the ensuing bidding war for his services. He could be the most in need of a change of division, with his 5.15 FIP away from Busch Stadium, which might make a transition to the much more pitcher friendly parks in AL Central a good choice, with 2 (or 3) likely rebuilding teams. However, with Lynn's name being very visible and large market (read: Big Spending) teams looking for starting pitching, while I would predict him to be a good fit for the Twins, he is an unlikely sign due to the contract he will likely command. 3. Alex Cobb The 30 year old Cobb is coming off of a very solid '17 campaign, posting solid standard and advanced stats to the tune of a 3.66 ERA, 4.16 FIP and an 86 ERA-. Durability is the major concern with Cobb, as he is yet to complete a MLB season without a trip to the disabled list. However, there is a lot to like about Cobb. He has pitched, very well at times, in the very competitive AL East. He would not be making league switch, as would be the case with Lynn, so familiarity with lineups, parks and the DH would be a positive point for the Twins to consider. He also pitched with much less of a Home/Away FIP split ratio (3.62/4.65 FIP split) than Lynn (4.45/5.15 FIP split). The Rays have attempted - twice - to resign Cobb (reported by Jon Heyman) for $30 million and $40 million respectively in his first two years of arbitration. Cobb should easily surpass these offers this off-season, and it would not surprise me if Lynn and Cobb use each other as benchmarks for the others contract - although Cobb may well be offered less years and dollars because of his injury history. That said, I would expect him to be comfortably (if not exceeding) in the 4-5 year, 65-85 million dollar range (16.25 - 17 Million annually) - both hefty, but perhaps not unreasonably Twins-like numbers. Tier Three - The "3/4/5" Type Its worth prefacing that this is the largest group available, with many names that could be broken down and analyzed as good fits for the Twins. Obviously for the sake of brevity and readability I couldn't include each one, as well as a brief but detailed breakdown of each. Of the players available, I created a table comprised of varying statistics (ERA/ERA-/FIP/FIP(H)/FIP(A)/IP/K%) and weighted them. The pitchers who outperformed their ERA- minus were given the most weight, while those who under performed where given less, etc. The resulting names, while an argument can be made for all of them, just missed the cut - Michael Pineada - Andrew Cashner - John Lackey - Miguel Gonzalez - Doug Fister - Scott Feldman Jhoulys Chacin Chacin, at age 29, had a very good, under the radar 2017 season for the San Diego Padres. He posted a 3.89 ERA over 180.1 IP, and was one of only 7 free agent pitchers to throw enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. Very durable, Chacin didn't just pitch well at PETCO park, with a respectable FIP Away of 4.89 in a very tough division (with bandbox parks in ARI, high altitude in COL, and the World Series appearing LA Dodgers lineup to contend). Chacin is one of the youngest pitchers on the free agent starting pitcher list, and while he doesn't have the established pedigree or upside of the Tier 2 pitchers listed above, he could make a fine addition to the Twins staff. While he has expressed a desire to sign with the Padres, there is very little noise surrounding Chacin. For the sake of transparency, however, he has been up and down in his career. Prior to signing with the Padres, Chacin was pitching in the previously mentioned thin air of Colorado and the desert in Arizona, less than ideal conditions. Chacin has the ability to be a solid number 4 or 5 guy - or, he could be Ricky Nolasco. Luckily, it will probably cost less than the $12 million annually the Twins gave Nolasco, to find out. He would be a calculated gamble, a low ceiling/high floor type signing. 2. Jason Vargas If Kyle Gibson was Jekyll and Hyde, Vargas exemplified this concept by turning it up to "11". His 2.62 ERA in the first half had many arguing that he should start the All Star Game, with 78 K's under his belt when mid-July rolled around, he was widely considered to be contending for a Cy Young, perhaps behind Cory Kluber and Chris Sale. But, then they played more baseball after the All Star break, and boy was it not good for Jason Vargas or his impending free agency. His ERA inflated to 6.38 during the second half, leaving him with a fairly deception 4.16 ERA on the year. His 4.94 xFIP number probably more indicative of the real Jason Vargas, the KC pitcher cannot be viewed as anything more than a number 4 or 5 starter, but in fairness to Mr. Vargas - no one expected him to be Chris Sale in the first place. His poor second half likely killed the hope of a large free agent contract, and at age 34 I would be surprised to see him get a deal longer than 3 years. For the right contract, Vargas is intriguing, but there are better and younger options on the board with more upside and less risk. The Twins already have a younger Jekyll and Hyde. 3. Tyler Chatwood Chatwood has gotten a lot of chatter (excuse the pun) around Twins Territory, I think, because he fits the mold of a type of pitcher the Twins should gamble on. Chatwood, out of all the Tier 3 pitchers, has the most ability to be in the next tier. He is the youngest free agent pitcher, at 27 years old, after what feels like a lifetime pitching at Coors Field. His 2016 season was more impressive than his 2017 season, with ERA at 3.87 in '16 and a 4.69 in '17, but his xFIP ERA estimator suggests that his 2017 season was better if you factored out the unluckiness of FB% for HR (largely outside of a pitchers control, especially in Coors Field). He outperformed league average ERA- , the park adjusted ERA modifier, to put up a 94, a very impressive feat. (For perspective, Chacin and Vargas also had 94 ERA- marks in much friendlier pitching conditions). Chatwood's K/9 is also trending in the right direction, improving from 6.66 K/9 to 7.31 K/9 in 2017. This is Chatwood's first taste of free agency, and while he will be sought after by clubs looking for a high upside bargain, I don't know that he will get the type of contract offers that would price him out of Minnesotas range. Chatwood could conceivably look to establish more value for a second look at free agency by signing with a team that has a (A) pitcher friendly park, ( a good defense and © up and coming contender with postseason aspirations. All boxes that could be checked with the Minnesota Twins. Final Verdict From a spectator's point of view, its hard to see Ace pitchers hit the market and immediately know that your team is not going to be competitive to try to sign them. That said, if Yu Darvish is pining for a reunion with Mr. Lavine AND Mr. Lavine can pry open the Pohlad piggy bank enough to make that happen, stranger things have happened I suppose. Ultimately, though, the Twins may be in the position to do something they haven't done since Ervin Santana, which is sign a free agent starter as a difference maker. After pouring through numbers, which I do - every time i write these - I would stand by the assessment that Alex Cobb and Tyler Chatwood would be ideal targets in the current market for the Twins. While Cobb will be more expensive, and perhaps more prone to time on the disabled list, he also has an good track record in the American League, with good peripheral numbers without being as expensive as a Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta. On the other hand, Tyler Chatwood is the most intriguing name on the board if you're willing to gamble on change of venue and league. He will be a cheaper option than even Cobb, but less of a "sure thing." Purely speculation, I believe Chatwood is a guy the Twins should roll the dice on, if you can get him for 3 to 4 years at a reasonable annual salary of around $12 - 14 million or so. Whether or not he is offered a more lucrative or enticing deal to play elsewhere is always the unknown question. I would expect the Twins to be in on him, though. All things considered, this off-season should include a free agent starting pitcher signing with the Twins. They are on the cusp of making several deep, competitive runs into the postseason, and the old adage always holds true: Good Pitching beats Good Hitting On Deck: The final segment of this series will conclude with a more targeted look at position players the Twins could look to sign in free agency.

​Wheelin' and Dealin' - Off season trade targets Despite the undeniable successful season the Twins had in 2017, as tends to happen in the playoffs, deficiencies and holes in the lineup, rotation and bullpen become less transparent and more of a glaring, vacuous hole - clearly seen. For instance, Robbie Grossman started the American League Wild Card game for the Minnesota Twins, not as an injury replacement for a banged up regular - no, he was the starting Designated Hitter - a position he had manned for the majority of the year. In fact, Grossman was the DH twice as much as any other Twin in 2017, with 63 appearances - 33 more than Kennys Vargas, and 38 more than the starting 3B Miguel Sano. A lot can be said for Robbie Grossman; he is a serviceable fourth Outfielder, and this year he provided value primarily in the form of getting on base - he walked 67 times in 2017 - but a primary Designated Hitter is not one of those things. This isn't to rag on Robbie Grossman. It is, however, to point out a glaring need in the Twins lineup - a power bat - preferable right handed, for balance sake, which is soaked with left handed and switch hitters. Again, poor Robbie Grossman isn't the problem, per se, he's the result of a team that is band-aiding a fundamental piece, and that's not (obviously) the only one. The relief pitching, as I wrote in a previous post, was bottom 1/3rd in the league and desperately lacking in strikeouts. Starting pitching, though seemingly every team in the league shares this need, was especially true for the Twins who - until the reemergence of an energized Kyle Gibson - had a lack of consistency behind Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios. The Twins aren't exactly known for loosening the purse strings to hand out massive contracts to solve these problems, though that is an option, they are more than capable with the current farm (Keith Law ranked them at number 11 in the MLB) of swinging trades that could solve some of these woes. As the right handed bat was my first example, lets break down a few scenarios (all hypothetical, obviously) that may make sense for the Twins to pursue as we begin the transition into the Hot Stove season. ​Right Handed Power Bat The "Salary Dump Veteran" - Matt Kemp, Atlanta Braves Matt Kemp has had an interesting, and fairly disappointing, career arch. Once a highly touted young outfielder, and second place finisher (who probably should have won) in the National League MVP award in 2011, has seen a series of mediocre seasons diminish his value to the point where not only does his albatross contract (8 years, $160 Million) signed after the 2011 season look terrible - hes also seen himself traded twice since 2015, the last trade to the Atlanta Braves is widely viewed as a "bad contract swap." That being said, its not all doom and gloom with Kemp. Since leaving the Dodgers in 2015, Kemp has put up decent numbers, offensively anyway, for the Padres and Braves. He had 23 Home Runs for the Padres in 2015, 35 combined between the Padres and Braves in 2016 and 19 big flies for the Braves in 2017. While his OPS in those seasons is less impressive than the home run tallies (.755, .803, .781) they are hardly what most would consider poor. Kemps value is diminishing for the Braves, mostly due to the lack of a DH position in the National League. Kemps UZR is not just bad - its really, really bad - to the tune of -22, -17, -14 and -9 - in the last 4 seasons. Which makes him a prime candidate for the American League. The benefit Kemp would bring to the Twins could come in his ability to hit left handed pitching. His career batting average split v. LHP is .319, and would bring some balance and protection to a lineup that has struggled in that department. The Braves are seen as "more willing" to trade Kemp this off season, as opposed to fellow Outfielder Nick Markakis, because of the contract situation between the two. Markakis is more affordable, and on the last year of his current contract, Kemp however still has 3 years remaining at 21.5 Million dollars annually. That said, the Dodgers are relieving the Braves of 3.5 Million annually and if they would trade him they would have to, likely, eat much of the remaining deal to get anything back in return. This could make a deal with the Twins possible, as the Twins would surely not take on the bulk of Kemps contract in any trade. The Twins, on the other hand could make a good trade partner if they chose to pursue Kemp. While the Braves would prefer to win sooner rather than later in their new ballpark, the team is loaded with young talent with prospects Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna primed to take the next step. Versatility could be of value to the Braves, which could give a trade centered around Eduardo Escobar some legs. He is arbitration eligible for the last time this off season, and with Miguel Sano projected to be healthy for the 2018 season, would not have a regular full time position. While giving up Escobar is probably not a popular idea, a trade of versatility for a regular, full time Designated Hitter (who could spell in a corner outfield position in a pinch) might be worth it. The "Risky, High Upside" option - Maikel Franco Rumblings out of the Philadelphia Phillies rumor mill is they may be looking to move on from Maikel Franco. The once highly touted prospect in the Phillies organization has had less than impressive results through his first three Major League seasons, hitting just .230 for the Phils last season. However, Franco is incredibly dependable as an everyday player and has played 152 and 154 games in the last 2 seasons. With the uncertainty of Miguel Sano at 3B - considering the possibility of a titanium rod in his leg still looming - Franco would be able to provide some option for playing time at the hot corner with a carousel of Sano, Franco and (probably) Mauer circulating to keep fresh and healthy. Franco has the potential to be a bopper. Hes hit 25 and 24 Home Runs in successive seasons with the Phils, and would likely strike some fear into opposing pitcher if he can get things going. With Franco's trade value fairly low, it may be possible to get him for a song this offseason, especially if the Phillies decide to switch gears and pursue Mike Moustakis in free agency. Franco, in that scenario, would be displaced from 3B and has no secondary position with both Tommy Joseph and the arrival of phenom Rhys Hoskins logjamming 1B. But - there is a problem for the Twins. He doesn't hit left handed pitching. Like, at all. His career mark of .232 with 20 career Home Runs is a little more forgiving than the .209 and 7 HR mark he displayed in 2017. The Twins would have to believe there is more versatility in a Franco trade than purely a right handed bat, and hope to cure some of the woes against lefties. For context, though, for anyone who thinks a trade for Franco is that silly - Kennys Vargas line against left handed pitching in 2017 - .185 BA with 1 HR. Franco would still constitute an upgrade with positional flexibility at 1B/3B. The selling point for the Twins would be the fact that Franco's trade value being as low as it appears, they may not have to give any top prospects in exchange for the struggling 3rd Baseman's services. The "Pie in the Sky" Option - Khris Davis OK, before you completely dismiss this out of hand, here me out. Khris Davis has done nothing but mash for several years, hitting 27, 42 and 43 Home Runs - respectively - the last 3 years between Milwaukee and Oakland. Though there isn't much trade talk surrounding Davis, per se, it certainly wouldn't be beyond the Athletics to part with a premier player for the right package of prospects. In fact, Davis himself said in an interview that he considers his time with the A's as a "year to year" proposition. He is set, in arbitration this off season, to make an estimated 11.1 Million. Billy Beane has discussed in interviews the possibility of locking up "core pieces", though he did not mention Davis specifically. Conjecture, but with emerging stars in Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Sean Manaea and Jharel Cotton - Davis may be the piece that goes. All thing considered, a trade for Davis would not come cheap and you could expect heavy counter-bidding by other teams for his services. It would likely mean parting with at least one of the Twins top prospects plus a few other mid-tier prospects - minimum - to land Davis. The benefit for the Twins would not only be the slugging First Basemans bat, however. He is 29 years old, and if the Twins believe they could get a "sign and trade"-type deal done with the Athletics for Davis, they could have a built in replacement for the inevitable departure of Joe Mauer in the next year or two. Those are, admittedly, MONSTER "if's". This is the "Pie in the Sky" option, after all. I'd like to continue this series with relief pitching and a starting pitching segment. If you enjoyed this piece, please read my prior blog article on free agent relievers - which I will also be adding to in series. Follow me @FreneticCards on Twitter

Thank you for the kind words! I think, a Wade Davis or Holland are in line to make in the range of 10-12 Million annually - with lockdown type relievers being a premium, I think even 15 million wouldn’t be out of the question. I would agree, I’d love to see the Twins get at least two tier 2 type relievers, which is where I think Smith and Shaw sit. Even so, I’m skeptical, the Twins would probably need to commit about 4-6 Million annually for each. Will be interesting to see if the increased win total in 2017 is reflected in an increase in the payroll to accommodate moves like this. Thanks - JohnOlson

In less than a month, Major League Baseball will enter the official hot stove season, the period in which some eligible players will be granted free agency and teams will look to sign and trade, trying to improve their clubs. A look at the free agent class, there will be plenty of steam surrounding the hot names and big contracts, while fandoms sit hopeful that their team will make the moves and fill the gaps in the rosters that propel them toward October baseball. The Twins have a few glaring needs, but today we'll be specifically looking at the relief pitching area. Let's take a look forward to which players will be available as well as who, I believe, they should be targeting. The Twins ended the 2017 season with a bottom 1/3rd relief pitching staff by most available metrics. They were 22nd in bullpen ERA, 26th in strikeouts, 27th in batting average (BA) against and the 10th most used bullpen in all of MLB compiling 566 Innings. While there were some bright spots - namely Trevor Hildenberger - there will be some major construction needed for the 2018 season. With some staples of 2017 and old friends (Matt Belisle, Dillon Gee, Glen Perkins) likely gone for next season, there will be room to fill with either free agent signings, trade candidates and minor league prospects - likely a mix of all three of those, if we are being realistic - we're only going to look at the available free agents. First, lets give a little background of how the current group measures up and which metrics we'll be using to quantify our targets. The Metrics *Advanced stats can be a confusing language - but for the purposes of understanding how good or poorly a relief pitcher has performed, or is treding toward, its important to be familiar with a couple of these. Specificly SIERA and xFIP. Both SIERA and xFIP are ERA-estimators, but while SIERA is a backwards looking projector, xFIP is a forward looking projector. Both are on a familiar ERA-type scale, so for simplicity sake, a 3.00 xFIP or 3.00 SIERA is as good as you'd expect a 3.00 ERA to be. For more information on xFIP and SIERA, I'd recommend highly visiting Fangraphs Sabermetric Library. We'll also use two other, more well known, metrics with WAR and K/9. For reference and baseline, I've added the league averages for metrics below. *League Average xFIP - 3.8 *League Average SIERA - 3.9 The Returning Bullpen: Buddy Boshers - 4.52 xFIP 4.16 SIERA -.2 WAR 7.2 K/9 (35 IP, 4.89 ERA, 28K) The 2017 season was not kind to Buddy Boshers. His indicators say he has some room for improvement with a few more balls hitting fielders gloves as opposed to the outfield grass, but more or less what you see is what you've got with Boshers. Alan Busenitz - 4.80 xFIP 4.38 SIERA .1 WAR 6.54 K/9 (31.2 IP, 1.99 ERA, 23K) This one surprised me, though Busenitz had a shining 1.99 ERA, advanced metrics suggest he benefited immensely from his defense and purely having better "luck" on balls in play as reflected by his .212 BABIP against. The league average BABIP is usually around .290-.310, Busenitz will likely see his BABIP trend toward the mean with more innings. Taylor Rogers - 4.26 xFIP 4.14 SIERA .4 WAR 7.92 K/9 (55.2 IP, 3.07 ERA, 49K) Rogers was one of the most used Twins relievers, especially prior to the all star break. Fatigue, more than likely, handed Rogers a higher than expected xFIP and SIERA as his first half numbers (xFIP 2.08) and second half numbers (xFIP 3.28) vary by almost a full run and a quarter. Ryan Pressly - 3.81 xFIP 3.55 SIERA .1 WAR 8.95 K/9 (61.1 IP, 4.70 ERA, 61K) Pressly is an example of why I love advanced statistics. Pressly has xFIP and SIERA numbers that should put him the conversation for best reliever in this current bullpen (I, personally, think he could be a Twins closer sooner rather than later) but his HR/FB ratio - league average is generally around 10-ish % - is a whopping 18.5(!) percent. That number should regress toward the mean, and I wouldn't be surprised to see his 2018 ERA more in line with the 2017 xFIP number. Tyler Duffey - 3.80 xFIP 3.61 SIERA .7 WAR 8.49 K/9 (71 IP, 4.94 ERA, 67K) Same story for Duffey, with different reasons for inflation. While Duffey did indeed have an inflated HR/FB ratio (13%) he also had a Ground Ball % of 49.5% (ground balls are more often hits than fly balls), so while hes not an elite bullpen arm, he's better than the ERA suggests. Trevor Hildenberger - 2.92 xFIP 2.63 SIERA .8 WAR 9.43 K/9 (42 IP, 3.21 ERA, 44K) Someone needs to tell me why Hildenberger didn't pitch more often in 2017. The xFIP, SIERA and K/9 numbers he put up in 2017 (admittedly, in 42 IP) are not just the best in the bullpen - they are borderline elite levels. Who's Available? - The 2017 Free Agent Class The current free agent class is stocked with very, very good bullpen arms. While the Twins won't be the only team shopping, there more than a few arms on the market that would help the Twins. A quick rundown looks like this: Bryan Shaw --------- Tommy Hunter--------- Mike Minor Wade Davis---------- David Hernandez---- Yusmeiro Petit Anthony Swarzak---Joe Smith--------------- Fernando Rodney Pat Neshek---------- Brandon Morrow----- Steve Cishek Luke Gregerson--- Brian Duensing------- Craig Stammen Matt Albers--- -------Juan Nicasio----------- Jake McGee Greg Holland-------- Addison Reed--------- Koji Uehara These are just the top 20 (as filtered by 2017 Wins Above Replacement.) Clearly, some of these names we can immediately look past - Twins, barring some huge surprise - will not be in on the big name free agents on this list like Wade Davis or Greg Holland, perhaps even Addison Reed. That still leaves a glutton of possible candidates in free agency, since I see three relief pitchers leaving the club (Belisle, Perkins, Gee) and a vacant closer spot, here are my potential targets. Joe Smith Ok, in list above, I want you to name the reliever who leads the pack in our relief pitching metrics. I would bet none of you guessed that the man who leads the pack in both xFIP and SIERA in this group is Joe Smith, and he was very close to topping the list in K/9 as well. Between the Blue Jays and Indians last year, Smith not only put up good ERA (3.33 ERA, 71K in 51 IP) there is reason to believe with the Twins defense behind him and in a pitcher friendly ballpark like Target Field he could be even better. His 2.33 SIERA mark and his 2.39 xFIP project superior ability, and he comes in with a sterling 11.83 K/9 mark. With the lack of strikeouts on demand in the current bullpen, Smith looks like a great addition and immediate upgrade. 2. Bryan Shaw The second piece of the Indians bullpen to show up here, Shaw has an impressive 3.20 xFIP and 3.30 SIERA and has also been one of Terry Francona's favorite 'pen arms, and its shown by his use - in the last 5 seasons with the Tribe he has pitched no fewer than 64 Innings and thrown over 70 innings in three of the last five. While Shaw doesn't have the K/9 that his battery mate Smith has, his 8.57 K/9 would be a welcome addition in the Twins arsenal. Oh, he also keeps the ball in the park. His HR/FB percentage is a league average 10%, but his HR/9 is a miniscule .59, and his career mark almost equally impressive .91 HR/9. A workhorse who will get you outs, keep the ball in the park and get you some strikeouts along the way? Sure, I'll take two. 3. Mike Minor Mike Minor is one of those guys who seems like hes been around forever. Former starting pitcher with the Atlanta Braves, Minor moved on to Kansas City and became a very competent relief pitcher. A lefty out of the 'pen, he would be a great dual role guy for the Twins, capable of long relief and lefty on lefty situations. He threw 77 Innings for the Royals last year, with a 3.59 xFIP and a 3.16 SIERA, suggesting he probably got a little luckier on balls in play due to the Kansas City defense (his ERA in 2017 was 2.55). Similar to Shaw, he keeps the ball in the ballpark with a .58 HR/9 and had a stellar 10.20 K/9 in 2017. In other words, he's a left handed Dillon Gee if Dillon Gee struck out 3 more hitters a game and allowed 1 less HR per 9 Innings. A significant upgrade. Closing the door With many relief pitchers on this list with closing experience, I had to be a little more subjective. Much to my chagrin there is not a metric for "ice water in his veins" or "clutch genes", but we can see some of the guys on the list have done the job (some for many, many years - looking at you Fernando Rodney) well over the years. That said, the Twins are more than likely not in play for the two biggest (and most likely most expensive) names on the list in Wade Davis and Greg Holland. I will even go as far to say the Twins will not pay Addison Reed the raise he is due after closing much of the year for the Mets and serving as a primary set up man for Craig Kimbrel in Boston. On the other hand, I will say that Fernando Rodney and Koji Uehara's closing days are probably behind them, and for good reason. Neither one pitched particularly well, at least well enough to be considered for the closing spots on a major league club. And yes, I know Rodney did. They also had Archie Bradley. I'll Digress, that leaves me with two interesting players in Luke Gregerson and Steve Cishek. Both Gregerson and Cishek have closing experience, and both have been transient from their closing roles over the years. When the Astros traded for Ken Giles, Gregerson was removed from his closing role into setup (the Giles experiment didn't go so well in the first year) and was thrust back into the role when Giles struggled. Cishek has also seen a wax and wane to his role, he's served as primary closer for the Rays and Marlins, but has also played setup man for Brad Boxberger and more recently Erwin Diaz in Seattle. Neither have excellent peripherals in high leverage situations, but the ability to have a veteran pitcher in the 9th inning, someone who's been there before to take the role and perform, is valuable. The ideal scenario, short of trading for or signing a premier closer, is that you have a Gregerson or a Cishek type player to take the role and wait for an emerging, younger reliever to succeed in higher leverage roles, hopefully supplanting Gregerson or Cishek eventually due to their superior "stuff." The relief pitcher market is ripe with possibilities and improvements. There's no time like the present, and this years relief pitching class couldn't have come at a better time for the reloading Twins to stock up for a new season. NEXT UP: Starting Pitching @FreneticCards

To Extend, or Not to Extend ... The Case for Brian Dozier The 2018 Twins offseason will undoubtedly have many questions. The usual "will they, won't they" Hot Stove talk of free agent signings, the Winter Meetings and trade talk circulating. While there is no doubt the Twins have holes to fill (Relief pitching, Starting pitching, maybe a right handed power bat, etc.), one question seems to loom large: What is the future of Brian Dozier? Dozier entered the 2017 season for the Twins, his age 30 season, and once again put up stellar numbers across the board. He lead the team in WAR (wins above replacement) with a mark of 4.9, hit 34 home runs, was a catalyst out of the leadoff spot and makes a strong case for most valuable player on the club. He was undoubtedly the heart and soul of a Twins team that, at times in prior seasons, has desperately needed strong veteran leadership. That said, the 2018 season is the last of Dozier's 4 year, 20 million dollar extension he signed prior to the 2015 season, and the Twins second bagger will enter another offseason (probably) with more trade talk and contract extension speculation. Not knowing how Dozier would like to handle the next season, I can assume three scenarios how the organization can proceed with Dozier this offseason - Trade Brian Dozier Certainly a case can be made for trading Dozier. His trade value is high, the Twins need starting pitching and if you could find a willing trade partner to make you a deal you couldn't refuse, why not? Reality is, the market for Second baseman is weak. Most clubs, while they value the position, hold the prospect of a power hitting 2B as a luxury. There is a reason, for both clubs, that Dozier didn't move last offseason to the Dodgers. The Twins needed more than Jose De Leon, and the Dodgers were not going to move their untouchable prospects (Buehler, Verdugo, Bellinger) to aquire Dozier. Ergo, no deal. The situation is likely the same this offseason. Hang on and let him leave a Free Agent Another plausible route, the Twins may view Dozier as an important, but expendable cog in the lineup that is getting younger and more athletic every year. With Dozier entering the year at 31 years old, perhaps they ride one last year and hope he turns in another solid performance (maybe the playoffs?) and mutually part ways with Dozier, him exploring his first taste of Free Agency and the Twins, likely, hoping for a compensation pick. I would handicap this particular scenario on the low end of the spectrum, the Twins seem to value Dozier and his intangibles, an unclear replacement in the minor leagues is not looming (Nick Gordon doesn't seem to be pushing the door on Dozier, though turning in a solid season himself), and the value attached to a compensation pick is nominal, especially to a club that fancies themselves contenders. Extend Brian Dozier before Free Agency This is the meat and potatoes argument. There are a lot of reasons to extend Dozier beyond the 2018 season, but the new regime will have to look at the value Dozier will provide rather than pay him for the value he has provided. To break that down, we'll have to do a little research. A Case Study in Second Baseman First, I think we need to understand how rare Second basemen like Brian Dozier are, not from a power or intangible standpoint, but from an age standpoint relative to their contract and statistics. Only 8 teams in the MLB show a second baseman over the age of 30 in their depth chart as a projected starter. For the purpose of this article I've take the liberty to exclude a few players from the conversation: (Super) Utility Players- Ben Zobrist Utility Players- Danny Espinosa, Chase Utley, Jason Kipnis (Ok, I know, Utley isn't exactly a Utility player, but hes no starting 2B either) Free Agents- Neil Walker While all of the players above are over the age of 30, none of them is an expected starting 2B, with the exception of perhaps Neil Walker. Without knowing his future, or where he'll end up, I've left him out. So, where does that leave us? With 8 players (Dozier not included): Brandon Phillips, 36 - LAA, 6 year/$72.5MM, expires end of 2018 Ian Kinsler, 35 - DET Club Option, 2018, $12MM Dustin Pedroia, 34 - BOS, 8 year/$110MM, expires end of 2022 Robinson Cano, 34 - SEA, 10 year/$240MM, expires end of 2024 Daniel Murphy, 32 - WAS, 3 year/$37.5MM expires end of 2018 Logan Forsythe, 31 - LAD, 2 year/10.25MM expires end of 2018 Jed Lowrie, 33 - OAK, 3 year/$23MM expires end of 2019 From here, we have to break it down a little further into categories of type-player. I separated by All Star, MLB regular and stopgap option. In the "All Star" section, Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia are headliners both being paid well into their late 30's early 40's, but we can also include Daniel Murphy and Ian Kinsler in the category, both are worthy for argument. Brian Dozier would fit in this category as well.Brandon Phillips is an aging, but competent MLB regular second baseman, so we can discuss him in further detail also. The Stopgap players I've included are Forsythe and Lowrie. For the most part, Forsythe has been a disappointment in LA this season, while I wouldn't be shocked if the Dodgers brought him back, I would be if he were starting. The ageless Chase Utley has been serviceable, but father time has to catch up at some point, right? I expect the Dodgers to be big players for Ian Kinsler over the offseason, as they would more than happily trade some bobbles for the $12 Million he's owed. Jed Lowrie is also listed here, while he could be said to be a decent MLB regular, I'm not convinced there is a club outside of Oakland (maybe San Diego) that would be willing to plug him in the everyday lineup at this point. Franklin Barreto is looming as his replacement in Oakland, also. We would be remiss to include these two as worthy comparisons for Dozier. We need to be honest with ourselves, the Twins will not (nor do I believe they should) give Dozier a contract like Robinson Cano's monster deal, or Pedroia's slightly less goliath contract. Regardless of the numbers these two great players have put up, the Twins will not match that type of contract. For fun, I've compared their stats anyway. The more interesting comparisons happen when you look at Daniel Murphy, Ian Kinsler and (somewhat) Brandon Phillips. Daniel Murphy Age 30-32 Slash line avg. .316/.365/.529 avg HR/YR 20.6 fWAR 4.1 Murphy seems to be a good analog for Dozier-esque career progression. Besides a cup of coffee in his age 24 season, Murphy debuted as a regular at age 26, with good - not great - numbers until age 28. Murphy put up two solid seasons in his age 28 and 29 seasons. In his age 30 season, he again slashed very well (.281/.322/.449) and hit a career high 14 home runs, followed by an amazing World Series run by the Mets where Murphy was undoubtedly be biggest offensive factor. The Mets decided to let Murphy leave in free agency (It was reported Murphy wanted to remain a Met, and his loyalty likely cost him suitors) and eventually signed with the Washington Nationals. His 3 year contract for $37.5 million dollars is considered a bargain, considering the value ($44.2MM fValue in '16, $34.7MM fValue in '17)* *fValue is a Fangraphs value metric that measures the amount of money the players WAR stat would convert in free agency Ian Kinsler Age 30-34 Slash line avg. .278/.333/.434 avg HR/YR 17.6 fWAR 4.12 Age 35 and over Slash line avg. .236/.313/.412 avg HR/YR 22 fWAR 2.4 Ok, admittedly, its a little misleading to include a 35 and over category that includes a single season, but this is where it starts to become a little less cloudy. Kinsler, like Murphy and Dozier, didn't really emerge to be a dominant MLB starter until his age 26 season (Kinsler debuted at 24 and played the majority of full seasons at age 24 and 25). He was one of the top second basemen in the game for several seasons, including his age 29 season (trend starting to form, here) where he collected an amazing 7.2 fWAR. Kinsler continued to be solid through his age 30-34 seasons, compiling an average fValue score of $31.32 - a definite bargain when considering his 5 year, $75 million dollar contract he'd signed with the Rangers following his age 29 season. While his 2.4 fWAR in 2017 is respectable, Kinsler is an elite defender at second base. His UZR and DRS numbers are at or near the top of all eligible second basemen. For contrast, while Dozier isn't a poor defender, per se, his defensive metrics aren't nearly as dominating as Kinsler. Dozier's WAR numbers come predominately from his bat, Kinsler was largely saved by the glove. Brandon Phillips Age 30-34 Slash line avg. .280/.324/.410 avg HR/YR 14.8 fWAR 3.12 Age 35 and over Slash line avg. .288/.320/.416 avg HR/YR 12 fWAR 1.3 Again, there is no Brian Dozier clone (that I'm aware of...) and Phillips is not the greatest analog, but they do share some things in common. Phillips was an All Star, making the All Star team 3 times in his career, playing serviceable (and probably flashier than necessary) defense at second base. The biggest commonality is the teams they play for, and this is why I've included Phillips in this discussion. Phillips, while never the "bopper" Dozier is, but he was and still is, wildly popular in Cincinnati. He was rewarded for his loyalty and stellar play of his 20's and early 30's by signing a 6 year, 72.5 Million dollar contract to play out the rest of his career in the bandbox that is Great America Smallpark, uhhh I mean, Ballpark. We can use Phillips as a precautionary tale of buying too many years into the natural declining mid-late 30's. But, Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia? Yes, I have purposely omitted Cano and Pedroia from the conversation, more because (A.) the Red Sox and Mariners forked out a ton of money to lock them away, something the Twins (I can say with 99.8% certainty) will not do with Dozier and (B.) the more research I did, the more I found the same patterns as with Murphy, Kinsler and Phillips, anyway. For instance: fWAR and fValue numbers Murphy (30-32 seasons) 4.1 fWAR avg. fValue $32.86 Kinsler (30-34 seasons) 4.12 fWAR avg fValue $31.32 Phillips (30-34 seasons) 3.12 fWAR avg fValue $23.26 Pedroia (30-34 seasons) 3.5 fWAR avg fValue $27.55 Cano (30-34 seasons) 4.46 fWAR avg fValue $34.56 Phillips (35 and over) 1.3 fWAR avg fValue $10.35 (41% decrease in fWAR, 44% decrease fValue) Kinsler (35 and over) 2.4 fWAR avg fValue $19.00 (58% decrease in fWAR, 60% decrease fValue) How does Brian Dozier Stack up? Career Slash (age 25-30) .248/.322/.441 avg HR/YR 25.16 fWAR 3.47 Dozier stacks up remarkably well with this group, putting up similar slash and WAR values, most of the value tied into his age 29 (2016, 5.9 WAR) and age 30 (2017, 4.9 WAR) seasons. Dozier enters his age 31 season, and using his peers as comparison, he should have a few good/great seasons ahead of him. The lesson, when viewing a possible Dozier contract extension this off season, is to avoid paying for prior accomplishments as much as possible and anticipate the value you will receive for the remainder of the term. Easier said than done, I know. The Twins, if looking to sign Brian Dozier in the off season, should look to lock him for his age 31-34 seasons. A three year deal, four max. Buying into the age 35 and over years is buying into decline, and ultimately a very expensive, less athletic utility player. Obviously this analysis is in a vacuum, not taking into consideration factors like payroll variations and what players are coming off the books, and priorities in the organization (i.e. investing money in pitching, other positions, etc.). However, the general trend in modern second baseman in Doziers talent bracket lends itself to buying into the age 30-34 seasons and avoiding the age 35 and up. Second base, even with the Chase Utley Rule, is still a fairly fragile position that tends to decline faster than other positions (other than catcher). With Doziers' track record, talent and intangible leadership skills, having Dozier for the next 3 or 4 seasons to lead the next crop of young talented Twins may be just the type of move the Twins need. As long as we're mindful not to pay for the Dozier of 2017 in 2022.

As the official beginning of the offseason looms just a few short weeks away, the Minnesota Twins have shown the fire of a spunky, up and coming, perennial playoff contender. The front office team of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine has already locked in Paul Molitor to captain the ship for the next three seasons, as well as parted ways with Neil Allen, Twins pitching coach of the previous three seasons. All of the Twins burgeoning stars, unofficially dubbed the "Core Four" - consisting of Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler and Jose Berrios- are all in the pre-arbitration stage. All things considered, this team is one that has many (myself included) very excited for 2018 Twins baseball. The youth movement in Minnesota is reaching an apex, locked and loaded with veterans like Brian Dozier leading the charge. This is why I've realized we've reached the end of the Joe Mauer Era in Minnesota. Don't get me wrong, Joe isn't going anywhere for the 2018 season. He'll likely be manning first base, providing what has become well above average defense and, if he can reproduce the magic of 2017, a steady bat in the lineup. What I do mean, however, is the Twins face of the franchise is shifting and the new guard has taken the baton. Mauer, entering his age 35 season and the last of his 8 year/$184 million dollar contract, has evolved through the years from a homegrown hero, generational talent at Catcher and MVP - to a controversial player, often the butt of jokes and source of derision for many (thankfully, not all) Twins fans. Like it or not, however, Mauer has been the face of the Twins franchise for over a decade. He's been the only Twin, save for Glen Perkins, on the current roster to play on the Gardenhire-era playoff teams, through the rebuilding phase and come out the other side. He has weathered the good ('04-10), the bad ('11-'14) and the ugly (2016) beside all Twins fans. During those years, Mauer's accolades include 6 All Star game appearances (including 3 starts in '08, '09 and '10), 3 batting titles, 5 Silver Slugger's, 3 Gold Gloves and an MVP award. There is little doubt that Mauer belongs in the Pantheon of Greatest Twins Ever with the likes of Killebrew, Carew and Kirby Puckett, each of whom would could also say had their own Twins era - a time defined purely by their greatness and contribution to the Twins. My Dad, a lifelong Twins fan, has engrained this mentality, subliminally, in me for years. When he recalls watching baseball in the early 1960's, he remembers Harmon Killebrew and his moonshot home runs. In the 1970's, it was the batsmithing of the great Rod Carew (more times than I care to remember, He'll ask me if I know Carew stole home 7 times in a single season.... Yes, Dad, I know). Similarly, growing up an avid Twins fan myself, Kirby Puckett was my hero. I remember vaguely the 1987 World Series, but vividly the 1991 Series. The catch. The home run. All etched into my brain with a chisel. I can say with all confidence that when he was hit with that Dennis Martinez fastball in 1995 my heart sank to the ground. It was the end of the Puckett Era. Now, we are at those same crossroads again. Mauer has, like it or not, defined this generation of Twins baseball. He's provided us all he had to give on the field, and off. I would, personally, love to see Joe hit and field his way through the 2018 season and beyond in a Twins uniform, and perhaps he will. He may very well be tendered a contract at the end of the 2018 season, perhaps even start the 2019 season, racking up counting stats and paving a road from Minneapolis to Cooperstown. Mauer's leg in the relay race is over, regardless if he plays one more year or five more years. The next generation has taken the baton, and I, like many of you I'm sure, am very excited for the next chapters. Whether the next face of Twins baseball is one of the new Core Four, or Royce Lewis, or another player we've yet to draft or aquire - it will be interesting to see with whom we'll attach our memories. The end of the Mauer Era is coming to a close. Here's to the 2018 season, Joe. Get out there and rake.