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  • Twins Minor League Report (AFL Week 2): The Rosario Show Continues


    Steve  Lein

    The second week of the Arizona Fall League season included a tie for the Salt River Rafters as their game on Friday went 11 innings, and the teams ran out of scheduled pitchers. Overall on the week, the Rafters were 3-2-1, and Eddie Rosario continued to rake and run.

    Image courtesy of Scott Blanchette

    Twins Video

    Let’s see how all of the Twins prospects fared in week two of the Arizona Fall League.

    Byron Buxton – 4 games, 3-18 (.167), 2B, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 3 K’s. Batting .229 overall.

    Buxton again played in four games, playing centerfield for three games and right field for one, while batting leadoff in each.

    After a two-hit day (including a double) in Monday’s 7-4 win, he cooled off for the rest of the week.

    In Tuesday’s game he was 0-4 but made good contact, lining out to both third base and left field. On Thursday he was 0-4 with two K’s, and finished his week by going 1-6 in Friday’s tie.

    Eddie Rosario – 4 games, 7-18 (.389), 2B, 2 R’s, 2 RBI, 3 SB (6), 1 BB, 5 K’s. Batting .417 overall.

    Rosario continued his hot hitting from week one, and enters week three sitting atop the AFL batting average leader board.

    He also sits in second on the stolen base leader board with six as he swiped three more bags in his four games. He was also caught stealing for the first time.

    In the eleven inning tie, Rosario went 3-6 and stole two bases.

    Also notable was that Rosario batted leadoff, second and third in the lineup during the week, and also played one game in centerfield. .

    Max Kepler – 3 games, 2-10 (.200), 2 R’s, SB (2), 4 BB’s, 2 K’s. Batting .211 overall.

    Kepler played right field in all three games and was moved up and down the lineup. Despite collecting just two hits on the week, he also drew four walks, compared to only two strikeouts. Despite the .211 batting average, Kepler’s on-base percentage through two weeks is a strong .375.

    Taylor Rogers – Did not play.

    Rogers took a line drive to his left arm in his only start for the Rafters last week, and has not pitched since.

    Jason Adam – 2 games, 3 IP, 2 ER’s, 7 H’s, 0 BB, 1 K. 6.00 ERA.

    Adam is looking to make a good impression on the Twins in the AFL after coming over in the Josh Willingham trade with Royals.

    He struggled in week one, and was only marginally better this week.

    His ERA sits at 9.00 overall, with a WHIP of 2.33 in six total innings. He has allowed at least one run in each of his four appearances thus far.

    Zack Jones – 2 games, 2 IP, 0 ER, 2 H’s, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Hold. 0.00 ERA.

    Jones picked up his first hold in Monday’s 7-4 win, and made his second appearance of the week on Thursday.

    He gave up a single in each appearance, but didn’t surrender any damage on the scoreboard. Though he didn’t walk anyone, he did hit one batter on Monday (hope it wasn’t a fastball!).

    Jake Reed – 1 game, 2 IP, 0 ER, 0 H’s, 1 BB, 2 K’s. 0.00 ERA.

    Reed made just one appearance during the week, but it was of the two inning variety.

    He entered the game in the fifth inning of Thursday’s 5-1 win, and pitched a 1-2-3 inning, including a strikeout. In the sixth, Reed walked the second batter he faced, but got a fielder’s choice groundball out and his second strikeout to end the inning.

    He now has seven K’s in five IP in the AFL, and in 36 innings since being drafted by the Twins in fifth round of June’s draft, has allowed just one earned run.

    Notes

    -The Rafters have the best record in the AFL at 7-3-1 after two weeks.

    -Twins hitters combined to bat .261 with two 2B’s, five R’s, three RBI, six BBs, 10 K’s, and four SBs during the week.

    -Twins pitchers compiled a 2.57 ERA in seven IP, allowing three R’s (two ER) on nine hits and one BB, while striking out four on the week.

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    Jake Reed has pitched 36 innings in his pro career and given up only 1 earned run, and the Twins want to do what?  Stash him somewhere in the minor leagues because they have three more years before they have to protect him from the Rule 5.

     

    Watch the World Series and see what the Royals do with their 1st Round Pick this year.

     

    Man.  No words for that kind of thinking.

     

    I'm pretty sure I never suggested that. I was just pointing out where each was. I fully expect Burdi to be up in 2015. Reed has a chance, but remember he was a 5th round pick. The Twins wouldn't send him to the AFL if they didn't think he could be close. But I'd still put it at less than 50% because he's got a long way to go. 

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    What you are saying here is true, I guess what rubs me the wrong way is service time seems to be the deciding factor over who can help out the club. 

     

    Burdi was taken 46th and many  mocks had him going 21 to the Tigers. He is probably a better comp....if we follow the same service time logic he won't be up for a few years.   That would be a poor choice in my view.  Same with Reed, regardless of where he is drafted IF he puts up simlar numbers as he moves up.  Service time should not be a huge factor for a college reliever.

     

    Again, my point was not to at all say that service time as anything to do with promoting them, at least not for relievers. It was just to illustrate where they all are relative to needing to be added to the 40 man roster. Twins need, number of options ahead of them that they need to pass, etc., will have a bigger part in that decision.

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    What you are saying here is true, I guess what rubs me the wrong way is service time seems to be the deciding factor over who can help out the club. 

     

    Burdi was taken 46th and many  mocks had him going 21 to the Tigers. He is probably a better comp....if we follow the same service time logic he won't be up for a few years.   That would be a poor choice in my view.  Same with Reed, regardless of where he is drafted IF he puts up simlar numbers as he moves up.  Service time should not be a huge factor for a college reliever.

    Service time seems to be the deciding factor over who can help out the club? I'm not aware of a single case that affirms this statement. I suppose we could find some anecdotal cases that might suggest service time was a FACTOR. How did you reach this conclusion?

     

    Burdi may be up in 2015, certainly not in "a few years", and service time won't even enter into the Twin's thoughts about the timing, if you ask me.

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    Service time seems to be the deciding factor over who can help out the club? I'm not aware of a single case that affirms this statement. I suppose we could find some anecdotal cases that might suggest service time was a FACTOR. How did you reach this conclusion?

     

    Burdi may be up in 2015, certainly not in "a few years", and service time won't even enter into the Twin's thoughts about the timing, if you ask me.

     

    The question was "what are the odds of these guys making it to Target Field next year".  Seth responded:

     

    Personal opinion and obviously a lot of variables, but here is my uqick thoughts on percent likelihood they play in the big leagues in 2015:

     

    Byron Buxton - 80% (doesn't have to be on 40 man roster for another year)

    Eddie Rosario - 80% (will be added to 40 man in November)

    Max Kepler - 20% (2nd of 4 option years)

    Taylor Rogers - 45% (doesn't have to be added to the 40 man roster for another year)

    Jason Adam - 25% (could be added to 40 man roster in November)

    Zack Jones - 50% (doesn't have to be on 40 man roster for another year)

    Jake Reed - 35% (doesn't have to be on the 40 man roster for 3 more years or so)

     

    I guess I misunderstood the point of adding the 40 man consideration next to each player.  It seemed like that was a huge factor.

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    I can understand getting that impression. Whenever we mention the 40 man roster implications, it implies service time as a factor.

     

    I do think, though, that it is a non-issue for elite level players who have avoided missing significant time with injuries. In particular, I can't see it being a factor with Burdi and Reed, assuming they continue to perform as they have.

     

    It's hard to watch the Royals and not get pretty excited for the possibility of seeing a similar lock-down bullpen in Minnesota not too far down the road.

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    I can understand getting that impression. Whenever we mention the 40 man roster implications, it implies service time as a factor.

     

    I do think, though, that it is a non-issue for elite level players who have avoided missing significant time with injuries. In particular, I can't see it being a factor with Burdi and Reed, assuming they continue to perform as they have.

     

    It's hard to watch the Royals and not get pretty excited for the possibility of seeing a similar lock-down bullpen in Minnesota not too far down the road.

     

    Yeah, they flashed their record when leading after 6 innings. Something like 65-9.  Crazy.

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    I'm heading down to the Phoenix area tonight and right now it is in the plans to go see the Rafters take on the Desert Dogs tomorrow.  If I make it to the game I will be sure to snap a few pictures and give some analysis.

    And it appears that I will be down there next week to catch games Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Don't use up all the nice weather while you're down there.

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    Another productive day for Rosario:  2/4 with 3 RBI and 2 SB.  He continues to lead the AFL in hitting at .435 and is second in steals (8).  Despite only one XBH, Eddie is tied for fourth in RBI (10).  Buxton had two singles and a run scored and Kepler had an RBI double and a walk in 4 PAs.  Reed pitched a 1-2-3 inning, but Zack Jones walked three batters while retiring only one. 

    Edited by stringer bell
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    I'm sitting behind home plate. Buxton tracked down a nice fly in right on the warning track to end the 2nd. He got up in the 3rd hit a nice line drive single to center and then stole 2nd easily. Rosario not in the lineup.

     

    Thanks for the update.  Gamecast said he hit a screamer to 3rd for an out leading off the game, too.

     

    Please share more, if you have the chance.  Jason Adam is first up on the reliever schedule.

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    Thanks for the update.  Gamecast said he hit a screamer to 3rd for an out leading off the game, too.

     

    Please share more, if you have the chance.  Jason Adam is first up on the reliever schedule.

    I missed his first AB. Buxton struck out in his 3rd at bat. Completely fooled on an inside curveball. Adam started the 6tg, got two groundouts, including a great diving play by Casteel. Gave up a single in a line drive over the 2nd basemen then strick out the last batter on a low inside breaking pitch. He is really imposing on the mound.

     

    On a side note, Mark Appel is sitting in the section right next to me, signing a lot of autographs.

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    I missed his first AB. Buxton struck out in his 3rd at bat. Completely fooled on an inside curveball. Adam started the 6tg, got two groundouts, including a great diving play by Casteel. Gave up a single in a line drive over the 2nd basemen then strick out the last batter on a low inside breaking pitch. He is really imposing on the mound.

    On a side note, Mark Appel is sitting in the section right next to me, signing a lot of autographs.

    After pulling a ball that almost left the park down the left field line but went foul, Buxton sliced a ball down the right field line that was fair by 5 feet or so and bounced over the wall. It was a sure triple for sure, he was flying around 1st. RBI double anyways. 2-4, 2B, SB and RBI so far.

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    After pulling a ball that almost left the park down the left field line but went foul, Buxton sliced a ball down the right field line that was fair by 5 feet or so and bounced over the wall. It was a sure triple for sure, he was flying around 1st. RBI double anyways. 2-4, 2B, SB and RBI so far.

    After the double he stole 3rd on a close play and eventually scored. His 5th AB on a 1-0 count he hit a hard liner through the hole between 3rd and SS, good for a single.

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    After the double he stole 3rd on a close play and eventually scored. His 5th AB on a 1-0 count he hit a hard liner through the hole between 3rd and SS, good for a single.

     

    Buxton had his best day, nice to see.  As long as he's not striking out a ton, I'm not too worried about his AFL stats, but it is always better when your top prospects excel.

     

    It will be nice to see him build on this and parlay it to even more frequent days like today where he dominates the stat line, as the AFL winds down.  Is there any info on Buck looking at getting time in winter ball somewhere?

     

    Good to say Jason Adam up his game a little, as well.

    Edited by jokin
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