Twins Minor League Report (7/18): Gonsalves Dazzles, Park Goes Yard

Interesting to note that ABW III is on pace to have one of his best months in terms of balance between SO% and BB% while still producing. In the past it was always a tradeoff between those things. BB% is around his career norm (9.7%) while SO% is down to 29% for the month of July, down from his usual 40%. He could just be swinging a hot bat but hopefully it's a sign he's starting to see pitches better. I wish I knew how to make this table not look huge, but the data is interesting to see.

 

[table]
 

MonthABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOAVGOBPSLGSO%BB%
  April '1566916405116290.2420.3010.53040.3%8.3%
  May '151072327717287390.2520.3040.53334.2%6.1%
  June '159518307111288410.3160.3710.75839.8%7.8%
  July '151007215131711420.2100.2860.37037.8%9.9%
  Aug '1510913217031718360.1930.3050.33928.3%14.2%
  Sept '1525551025180.2000.2220.48030.8%3.8%
  April '166181431273250.2300.2660.41039.1%4.7%
  May '169312202081313490.2150.3150.49546.2%12.3%
  June '169212196051811420.2070.2830.43540.8%10.7%
  July '1656102151386180.3750.4440.66129.0%9.7%
[/table]

 

We'll have to see how it goes over more than 10-12 games.  He doesn't have to change a lot, to be a valuable dude, but he has a lot of dudes to get past if he's going to be playing for the Twins.

 

Totally agree, I'm not even an ABW III disciple. Just interesting to note actual progress in all 3 areas for a change. He's at 15 games for July, btw, so a little over half a month's worth of games.

I'm excited for Gonsalves and the other AA pitchers. Hard not to see some or all of them factoring in some way to next years rotation.

Our troubles have nothing to do with catching. I'm guessing we add Berrios and another youngish starting pitcher to the rotation in 2017. I much prefer them throwing to Suzuki, than Murphy or Garver. Ramos is a pipe dream, and I wouldn't overpay an injury prone catcher.

 

Serious question, how did you get that table to look so nice? Also, note, August 2015 his BB and K rates were even better. Good to see, but want to see him sustain sub-30% K rate for more than a month before I get too much hope.

 

His August 2015 BB and K rates were better but his production was down (hit .193/.305/.339 with only 3 HRs). The reason I pointed out his numbers this July is because he maintained or improved production while bringing down his K rate and maintaining his BB rate.

 

I made the table by using a website that creates the HTML code, then using a text editor to find/replace the "<" and ">" with "[" and "]" to convert from HTML to the BB codes this site recognizes. The site I used was:

 

http://www.tablesgenerator.com/html_tables

 

Make sure to turn off the "generate css" option. I created and imported a .csv file in Excel to load the data into the table.

Can the Buddy Boshers era please end now, too?

Just to bang the Zach Granite drum again, he went 1 for 3 and is hitting .309. He also stole his 35th base in 43 attempts (81% success).

 

Edit: math

Edited July 19, 2016 by scottz

 

Other than maybe CF and the rotation, it [catching] is our biggest liability.

Interesting point.  Perhaps it could be a separate thread, but take price and prospect rankings out of the picture, and which positions would be easiest to upgrade?

Upgrading the rotation seems obvious, but the effect of an upgrade only pays dividends once every 5 games (pitchers don't win MVP's argument).  So I would say the areas where we could plug in one player and improve the most, on average, would be center field and first base by far.  This is an odd juxtaposition since both of those positions seem absolutely entrenched for the next couple seasons meaning that they either have to improve greatly, or the team will have to work harder to improve in other areas to win despite them.  

It's a horrible position to be in as a GM or manager, because the best you can do is really just run them out there and hope for the best.  

So then where do we upgrade?  I'm hesitant to sign any veteran pitchers that would be considered an upgrade given the market.  And again, our return may be diminished by a 5th...  (of course a hitter only takes 1/9th of the at bats and maybe a 15% of plays in the field for a short stop?)  Sano is putting up Plouffe/Valencia type numbers.  We could probably upgrade pretty easily from Rosario/Grossman for not a ton of money, but both are young and have shown bursts.  I would argue that Erv and Doz, and Zuke is playing himself into that position, are perhaps our 3 most difficult players to replace, but are also maybe the 3 likeliest to be traded.  

Otherwise we're just hoping that everybody just starts playing better (a lot better), or in Nunez case, keeps playing well.  

From a trade standpoint, Sano's return value compared to the ease of replacing or upgrading would probably make by far the most sense based on his current level of production.  Do we continue to hope for better play or tear the whole thing down?

Cabbage has 15 strike outs in 10 games.  That can't be good.   

 

I would try Garver at catcher but otherwise spend big on a FA catcher in the next year or two or be willing to deal some prospects to get one at the right time (when we are closer to being competitive). I would NOT trade Sano and instead give him at least a full season at 3B before I decide he can't play there.  Plouffe was a bad defensive 3B his first year or two as well, and Sano has a better arm and is at least as athletic. His concentration errors may thin out as he gets more accustomed to the position at the MLB level. 

 

Otherwise I think the place to upgrade is almost entirely pitching (we are set with plenty of options at DH/1B, Middle Infield, and OF, some of whom have already arrived and some of whom have upside but need time to see if they will arrive). Most of the pitching is going to have to come from within, but I might spend on relievers.  Mostly what I would do is trade veterans like Santana, Nunez, Suzuki and even Dozier (if someone is really willing to offer good value) for upside pitching prospects, including offering to pay off part of Santana's or even Dozier's salary, if the return was right. 

It's a tough puzzle.  Trading off pieces for prospects makes sense long term.  I'm just not sure where we see our window being.  If we trade for high upside arms, we're probably talking A ball unless we part with a Sano or Kepler.  If the plan for C is a bigger name FA, keeping Zuke around makes some sense until that day comes.  I just have trouble wrapping my head around a plan centered on current Twins winning 3 or more years from now.  If that's the case, we shouldn't be wasting the next few years on auditions and development.  If said prospects aren't good enough to contend in the next couple years, then why make them the center of the plan and take them off the board while their value is still high and salary still low?  We've got a window with Sano and Kep and Bux and JO, and I'm struggling with how to get enough additional talent around them in the next couple years, particularly on the mound.  And if we can't, I'm not sure it's a great idea to hold them for 3 more tear down years while we await the arrival of younger prospects who might not be better in 3 years than Ervin Santana is next year.  I also have this sneaking suspicion that Sano, Kep, Bux and JO may never be the players we were expecting/hoping.  Cleveland sort of followed your model and traded for some upside pitching prospects, and they struck gold.  So maybe that is a workable model.  They also retained Santana and Kipnis while slogging through the rebuild.  So did Cleveland get lucky or is that a repeatable model?  Hard for me to say.  I do think if we're serious about putting the timeframe out 3 years, we should really commit to it and trade at least 1 of those top 4 prospects.  

 

Since he' s been really solid all year, I don't see why.

Well, after the lead off batter got on base via an error, he imploded with two outs and 5 runs and a grand slam later his ERA is 0 for the game. Looks pretty good for this game on paper, too.Boshers is another of Ryan's off season bullpen fixes, 28 yrs old that nobody wanted, and a Rochester place holder. I have higher expectations for success I guess, and patience is frayed. Maybe things will change now that Ryan is gone, and guys like this won't be called up instead of prospects that are part of the future.

 

I'm not putting the time frame out to 3 or 4 years, although realistically that is when we have the best chance of contending. Obviously there is a premium for a prospect closer to AAA than low A, but that probably involves taking a B or B- AAA pitching prospect for Santana + salary cash instead of a B+ prospect. A B- prospect is still really valuable and easily can turn into a 4 or even 3 starter if things go right. Trading Dozier might even be able to get a B+ AAA or AA prospect. There are options to get more pitching in the next year or two, and Gonsalves, Jay and Stewart should be ready by 2018 at the latest, if not late 2017, which is really only 1 year away.

 

 

This part makes zero sense to me. If we trade them, what do we get? Seriously? Other prospects? Trading them for veterans? Really? We're going to give up on the rebuild and try to have one or two decent (not great) years of veteran baseball before injuries and aging kick in? Uggh, count me out. There is always risk in prospects (although less when you have many of them) but that's still much much better than the other options at this point. Of the four players you mention in the last sentence, the only one to have any concern about is Buxton, because he is the only one who has struggled for a sustained period of time at the MLB level. And even he is way way too early to be pessimistic about. And while Berrios has only killed it at AAA, Kepler and Sano both look like above average regulars with All Star upside. Hardly something to get down about.

I'd consider trading for a haul including a potential ace and prospects closer to the Majors.  If we have no potential aces other than slim possibility of Jay, and we're not realistically signing one, I don't know how we acquire one without having to give up an arm and a leg later.
 

 

Can the Buddy Boshers era please end now, too?

 

You mean that guy that has averaged a sub 2.00 ERA, sub 3.00 FIP, and a K/9 > 9.50 between AAA and MLB this year?

 

Interesting point.  Perhaps it could be a separate thread, but take price and prospect rankings out of the picture, and which positions would be easiest to upgrade?

Upgrading the rotation seems obvious, but the effect of an upgrade only pays dividends once every 5 games (pitchers don't win MVP's argument).  So I would say the areas where we could plug in one player and improve the most, on average, would be center field and first base by far.  This is an odd juxtaposition since both of those positions seem absolutely entrenched for the next couple seasons meaning that they either have to improve greatly, or the team will have to work harder to improve in other areas to win despite them.  

It's a horrible position to be in as a GM or manager, because the best you can do is really just run them out there and hope for the best.  

So then where do we upgrade?  I'm hesitant to sign any veteran pitchers that would be considered an upgrade given the market.  And again, our return may be diminished by a 5th...  (of course a hitter only takes 1/9th of the at bats and maybe a 15% of plays in the field for a short stop?)  Sano is putting up Plouffe/Valencia type numbers.  We could probably upgrade pretty easily from Rosario/Grossman for not a ton of money, but both are young and have shown bursts.  I would argue that Erv and Doz, and Zuke is playing himself into that position, are perhaps our 3 most difficult players to replace, but are also maybe the 3 likeliest to be traded.  

Otherwise we're just hoping that everybody just starts playing better (a lot better), or in Nunez case, keeps playing well.  

From a trade standpoint, Sano's return value compared to the ease of replacing or upgrading would probably make by far the most sense based on his current level of production.  Do we continue to hope for better play or tear the whole thing down?

 

Just so we're clear, since Sano has returned from the DL and moved back to 3rd, he's hitting .269/.367/.481.