Twins Minor League Report (5/29): Kelly, Keaton Help The Kernels

Stewart is trash. Even when he pitches well, he doesn't get Ks. If only he can rebound his ERA a bit so TR can sell him to some dumb organization for a quality player.

His K rate is mildly concerning but the guy has loads of talent.

Mildy concerning? Dude is striking out 4 per 9. To put that into context, Gibson and Buerhle are striking that many out in the majors and that's almost unacceptable. Well, it makes them backend starters in the long run even if they do get decent results at the moment.

 

If you adjust that strikeout ratio to the majors, you probably get a Blaine Boyer and that's being generous.

 

He's going to fall out of a lot of top 100 lists if this continues. He got a free pass last year because he was just getting used to professional baseball but if he doesn't get swings and misses in the low minors, hes doomed.

"Mildly concerned" is the correct position to take here.

I'm well aware of the hurdles facing Stewart and his K rate. It's possible, maybe even likely, that he doesn't overcome those hurdles and fails to be an impact at the major league level.

But people are really overreacting in this thread. Stewart isn't a typical prospect.

- He's 20 years old in A+ ball and has all of 38 innings under his belt.

- He never dedicated himself fully to pitching until he was drafted in 2013 and didn't really get a taste of professional baseball until 2014 (uh... that's last season).

- The Twins had him on a limited pitch selection most, if not all, of last season.

- I have no idea what pitches he's throwing right now and what frequency he's throwing them.

- In July of last season, BA had Stewart's fastball touching 98 mph.

- He made just seven starts in the second half of 2014. He has basically pitched one full MiLB season at this point.

Stewart is still in the developmental phase of his professional career. He could be as many as five years away from Minnesota and still break into the league as a 25 year old (aka. the debut age of Trevor May and Kyle Gibson). He's pitching against hitters who are a huge step up from anything he's seen in the past.

If Stewart is struggling in July and August of this year, then my concern will elevate quite a bit... But right now? No. It's way too early to be so knee-jerk reactionary about 38 innings.

MiLB is so much more than looking at box scores. The scouts who have actually watched Stewart pitch are still very high on the kid. Does everyone down on Stewart think those scouts and analysts don't look at box scores?

This is what John Sickels had to say in November of last year about Stewart:

Borderline B+ 2014 first-rounder had a pretty good year in the Midwest League, although his velocity fluctuated, and he ended the year with shoulder trouble. His grade is a half-step lower than last year but this is more a reflection of health uncertainty than any loss of ability. May be more of a workhorse type than a genuine ace but still an elite prospect overall. ETA: late 2018

As markos laid out, it is exceedingly rare for a pitcher to start out like Stewart and amount to anything. Young as he is, a pitcher that can't strike anyone out or stay healthy at age 20 is a massive longshot to have any kind of success in the Majors... 5% might be generous at this point.

5%? Oy. A 20 year old pitcher who, when healthy, can touch the high 90s has a 5% chance of success in the majors?

And we're basing this on his inability to miss bats for a partial development season where he was pitch-restricted and 38 innings of the following season? Seasons when he has struggled with injury concerns?

This thread has taken a turn straight into CrazyTown.

Stewart might be a permanent injury concern. He might never strike guys out. Those are real possibilities but I'll let the guy reach, oh I don't know... maybe 200 career innings before writing him off as an automatic bust or giving him a one out of twenty chance of success in major league baseball, especially when you read reports from people who have watched him pitch say things like "effortless delivery", "reaches high 90s", and "elite prospect".

Only thing I'm worried about with Stewart is his healthy. He's 20 in high-a. I'd like to see him stay healthy for a full year and see what he can do when he gets on a role. Most 20 year olds are either still in college or getting ready for a short-season season. Way too soon to give up on anyone.Or to start calling people names (not that that is ever OK).

I'm also most concerned about his health, particularly his rollercoaster fastball velocity.

The guy is on a strict pitch count and innings limit. I won't get too worked up about his results until those limits are removed and we get to see what Kohl can really do, if and when he gets healthy.

Maybe 5% is a little low because Stewart could wind up doing OK in the bullpen. But unless you can point me to prospects that had the same issues and turned into good MLB starters, I'm going to be skeptical.

That clarification makes way more sense. Yeah, his chances of being a plus MLB starter seem to dip slightly by the month but if the guy can stay healthy and keeps his high 90s fastball, he should be a nice bullpen piece at the very least.

As I said earlier, his strikeout rate isn't nearly as concerning as his injury issues. The guy has been throwing a limited pitch selection, is on both a strict pitch count and innings limit, and hasn't come close to really unleashing on opposing hitters yet. If a guy isn't throwing his plus offspeed stuff - which Stewart absolutely has - his K rate is going to suffer badly and shouldn't be the determining factor of whether he's "succeeding" or not.

Kohl is still very much in a developmental period and that isn't shown in the box score. While I'm pretty dedicated to sabremetrics myself, it seems that some people forget that not everything is shown in a box score, particularly MiLB where we don't even have access to things like pitch selection and speed. As long as scouts and analysts stay bullish on Stewart, I'm going to temper my concern. By virtually every account you read anywhere by people who have watched the kid pitch, he has the stuff to miss bats.

If he gets through a full season without restrictions and continues to strike out four per nine, then it's probably time to start raising the big red flags.