Twins Minor League Report (5/14): Great Graterol!

Age is correct. Height is close, maybe 6-2. Weight is not even close. He's a good 240. Phil Miller wrote an article last year about how he gained like 60 pounds while doing his rehab and the twins were saying it was pretty much all good weight. 

 

I tweeted that if people want to tell me he's the Twins #2 prospect, I won't disagree... If someone wants to argue that he is the Twins #1 prospect, I won't put much much of a fight. 

Wow, 6-2 240 is about as good as you can hope for in terms of build for projecting a guy who's gonna be able to pitch a bunch of innings.  

I try and keep tabs on prospects, but this guy has seemingly come out of nowhere for me which makes it even better.  

If he's able to stay healthy and continue to pitch like he has through the all-star break...does he get a shot at AA as the season closes?  Or do the Twins shut him down to limit innings as he only pitched 40 innings in 2017? 

Fernando Romero track coming back from injury?  A+ if he continues to light it up and after 10 or so more starts/50 innings at A?  Innings cap at 100ish? 

The Berrios track was 103 innings at A his age 19 season--but he also struggled a little bit at A.  His age 20 season he went A+, AA, cup of coffee AAA.  Cautious this season?  Aggressive next?  

Crazy to think that if they so choose and this success continues, he could probably handle a few AA starts to end the year.(And then from there it's majors watch at just 20) But that's just me wanting to see him up with the Twins as early as possible.  

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I'm impressed with the control for someone as young as he is and will be watching to see if that continues.  How's the movement on his FB, obviously when we're talking 100+ we're talking icing on the cake, but if he throws that hard with any kind of movement--wow.  

Or is that kind of thing where it flattens out at when he's touching 99-101 and when he's at 95-98 it's got a little bit more movement to it. 

What's his best secondary pitch?  Can he control it yet? 

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Maybe the track record isn't quite there to put him #2/#3 or even argue for why he's the best the Twins have yet, but if he stays healthy it's hard to imagine him not.  

Another start or two even close to this, and Graterol won't have much left to prove in A ball. All of us Twins fans will need to be patient, since he still isn't that far removed from injury and will need to build his workload year over year.

If he is #2, that would put him ahead of either Lewis or Romero, right?  If he is #1, he would be ahead of both.  Or don't you consider Romero a prospect any more?

Lewis is a potential five tool superstar.  Graterol is a potential hard throwing ACE.  Who is more valuable to a team and worthy of the top slot, now that's an interesting question? 

His first two pitches were 100 mph.

Wow and whoa!!! I can't remember the last time a Twins pitching prospect was throwing with velocity like that. Exciting stuff! Let's just hope he remembers where the strike zone is located.

Kirilloff is filling up the stat sheet too. Took him a few days to get going after missing a season but he's been excellent since then. In May, he's slashing .375/.423/.750. Yow.

It may be time for Twins Daily to set up some type of poll or pool...who will be the first Kernels player promoted to Fort Myers?  Lots of great candidates!

Kirilloff is filling up the stat sheet too. Took him a few days to get going after missing a season but he's been excellent since then. In May, he's slashing .375/.423/.750. Yow.

Insane numbers for Kirilloff season-wide. 

Season-wide slash: .303/.344/.915

Pace Per 162: 85 runs - 73 2B - 11 3B - 28 HR -150 rbi

What an amazing first 29 games for the guy!!  Playing at that high of a level for about 20% of a minor league season is seriously impressive!  It would be extremely hard to keep that pace up for an entire season, but 20 XBH, 27RBIs, and a +.300 batting average in 29 games is crazy good! 

You're right, he started slow too, 1 for his first 12!  Since then (26 games), he's hitting:

Slash line: .327-.371-.997 

Per 162: 94 runs - 81 2Bs - 12 3B - 32 HR - 168 RBI

It's extremely hard to be over an RBI a game for an entire month and Kirillof accomplished that (April 9 - May 14).  I love how he has natural power too, he's not a huge pull guy or anything like that...his hit chart is a pretty even spread across all fields and he can go deep left-center/going the other way.  Should mean tons of positive things for him.  

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He keeps anything close to this up for the rest of the season and Royce Lewis might have to watch out for the best position prospect moniker, positionality value be damned! 

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Really really impressed with the numbers our top guys are putting up universally across the board--Lewis, Romero, Gonsalves, Gordon, Kirillof, Graterol, Badoo are all doing big things across various levels in the Twins system! Not sure I've remembered this many guys with this kind of talent all going this well at once before. 

(With apologies to Javier, Rooker, Enlow...but you can't have everything)  

As Twins1095 mentions, LOTS of things to be excited about "Down on the Farm".  Gordon continues to hit (hopefully he will keep it up in the second half this season) and it appears that he has only made 4 errors (all at short stop) in 34 games (28 at SS and 6 at 2B).  Keep it up Nick!

Kirilloff is filling up the stat sheet too. Took him a few days to get going after missing a season but he's been excellent since then. In May, he's slashing .375/.423/.750. Yow.

Would like to see him get that BB% up a bit.  His BABIP is riding high right now.  The production is great, but he's not a speed demon.  If he keeps hitting everything in A-ball on the screws, he'll need to be challenged at a higher level to round out his approach.

It is great to see him come back from injury and start lighting it up though.

On the Lewis vs Graterol question, I have a clear bias towards the position player unless the pitcher clearly has more talent (which could happen after their seasons are fully evaluated). Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel have talked about this multiple times over at Fangraphs, but looking at the realized value from past top prospects, the position players have a clear advantage and the reason is basically just injuries.  Fingers crossed on Graterol, but it's just a lot harder for pitchers to stay on the field consistently, leading to less value over time.  Given usage trends, the position player will probably tend to get more opportunities to impact the game than the pitcher anyway, even if the pitcher stays healthy.

 

Really really impressed with the numbers our top guys are putting up universally across the board--Lewis, Romero, Gonsalves, Gordon, Kirillof, Graterol, Badoo are all doing big things across various levels in the Twins system! Not sure I've remembered this many guys with this kind of talent all going this well at once before. 

I don't really remember exactly how good their stats looked, but 2013 had Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, Polanco, Gibson, Berrios, and May all in the minors (along with Arcia who busted, Stewart who's still a question mark, and Meyer who might have been finally putting things together in Anaheim before getting injured).

With all the prospect love going around someone has to mention Lamonte Wade who's now tied for second in HR among all Twins affiliates.  All while keeping the same crazy good plate discipline numbers.  I'm more and more convinced that he can be a good major league hitter despite his lack of a carrying tool.

Would like to see him get that BB% up a bit.  His BABIP is riding high right now.  The production is great, but he's not a speed demon.  If he keeps hitting everything in A-ball on the screws, he'll need to be challenged at a higher level to round out his approach.

 

It is great to see him come back from injury and start lighting it up though.

I definitely agree on the BB%, getting that walk rate from ~6 range to the 8-10 range would be big for him.  I do agree to that he's riding a high BABIP and that he's not gonna keep performing like this through the rest of the season--110+ XBH and 155+ RBIs per 162 games is a ridiculous pace. (If he does we might have the future GOAT on our hands).  But I will push back a little bit on the BABIP measure, it's likely that he is operating with some luck, but power hitters who hit the ball as hard as he seemingly does and get a ton of XBH do carry higher BABIP's than the league average. 

Just for comparision some of the other names thrown around in threads trying to compare his development to--Oswaldo Arica, Jason Kubel, Miguel Sano, Justin Morneau, even Kennys Vargas--all of these are power hitting prospects that have developed through the Twins system over the previous years.  All of these carries BABIP's in the mid-300's...especially at the lower level.  If Kirillof is near these guys level in terms of a power prospect, carrying a BABIP in the .320-.360 range, again especially at the lower levels of the minors, wouldn't be by any means out of the norm.  

Kirillof's BABIP in rookie ball was .328 in 55 games, while this year its at .348...84 games through his minor league career Kirillof is carrying a BABIP of about .335.  That's even towards the lower end of the BABIP's some of those power prospects carrying for longer stretches of time in the (especially in the low) minors.  

Now we'll see if Kirillof develops on the level that many of those prospects did, but if he is the kind of guy that early returns are trending him towards...we're talking about a guy who BABIP's below .315 or .320 probably mean he's going through periods of bad luck as opposed to fortune despite that number being well above the league average of .300.  

We'll see and again I fully expect regression, but again power prospects (Mike Trout's BABIP was closer to .400 then .350 in the minors.  Bryce Harper's was about .340.  Even Eddie Rosario was in the .320-.330 range with seasons well above that)  I'm not comparing Kirillof to Harper or Trout, but important context when understanding his BABIP likely means expecting it to be .320 or .330 plus.  

Further, especially for a guy like Kirillof that uses all fields well and lets his natural power carry the ball to the entire field (2018: 39 pull - 31 center - 30 opposite field Rookie: 41 pull - 19 center - 40 opposite field)  With that kind of approach, one would expect less at bats in which Kirillof gets himself out by trying to pull a ball on the outside part of the plate or something such as that.  This is one of the bigger positive indicators in my mind that Kirillof will not only hit for power, but should also hit for a decent average.  

I expect the 85 2B + 3B pace per 162 to come down, but probably in exchange for singles more often than outs.  I wouldn't at all be surprised to see him finish .330ish+ in the BABIP department.  

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He currently has 22 doubles, 3 3Bs, 12 HRs, 60 rbi's, .334 BABIP in 84 career minor league games (23 hr, 42 2B, 5 3B, 116 RBI pace).  I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him finish at per game production levels similar to that.

The biggest thing for me is that I'd like to see in the BB%, at about 5.8% this year and about 4.8% his initial stint in rookie ball.  He seems to swing away and it hasn't at all hurt him yet--especially with his willingness to use all parts of the field.  But at higher levels this seemingly could hurt him if he doesn't increase this rate. 

I do believe to some extent this metric and the type of approach at the plate that a high BB% or low BB% indicates  is something that either a player has or doesn't.  I don't think there are many players that go from one extreme to the other.  Kirillof isn't Rosario walk avoidant levels, but he isn't all that far off.  I'm not sure he'll ever be a guy that has an above average BB% nearing or above 10%, but hopefully he can get to 7 or 8% which should indicate enough of a certain type of approach at the plate that won't negatively effect him at higher levels. 

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Other than that small tweak, I can't state enough how much I like what I see and how much I think Twins fans should be positive about this guy.  His success at A ball, if it continues, suggests that the Twins, if they want, could choose to move him up a level or two to A+ or AA to see how he handles it during the second half of this year. 

In my opinion orginazations should give players as much as they can chew especially if they haven't yet shown they can't handle it.  If they continue to show they can handle higher levels of competition at a younger age than expected, than that bodes extremely well from them as a prospect.  If they don't, well I think it's good for hitters to know their weaknesses that can be exploited at higher leves as early as possible.  I don't think a little adversity is harmful negatively on a long-term basis, this does depend a little bit on the makeup of the prospect, but Kirilloff to me in interviews I've read shows a really mature demeanour and one of his touted strengths  is his baseball IQ.  

I hope Kirilloff gets a chance at AA should his success continue, even it's just 10, 15, or 20 games near the end of the season.  This should allow him to start next season at AA and put him in really good company and on a really good trend towards future major league success.

Now with that being said, it's hard to remember that Kirilloff is only 20 years old, with only 29 games out of rookie ball coming off a Tommy John injury and a year away from competitive baseball.  I would understand the orginization being careful and cautious with him.  But I would argue that until he gives you a reason to be this way then you're envisioning things in your head that might not and probably aren't even there.  

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Overall, I couldn't be more excited that the Twins have seemingly hit on a big natural power bat who's power comes not from launch angle changes or approach switches to cheat and pull more balls, but naturally through driving the ball where it's pitched.  I think that's an extremely strong skillset and formula to success at higher levels and eventually the majors. 

The Twins are going to have some really interesting orginzational decisions on their hands over the next 2-3 years.  I think both Kirilloff and Lamonte Wade are going to be big-time players that have a major league skillset that the team is really intigued with having in their lineup.  Where these guys fit in with Rosario, Kepler, and Buxton I'm not sure.  I think there's room for both if you want to get creative with Rosario at DH, Kirillof at 1st, and Wade in LF.  But I'm also not sure the Twins will be comfortable with Sano at 3rd long-term--if not for his defensive issues which I personally think are overblown, but because of his inability to stay healthy both playing in the field and hitting over a full-season.  If that's the case, then Kepler (or possibly Rosario) could be an extremely interesting trade candidate that could fetch a pretty good return on a future position of need.  

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Regardless, I haven't been this excited for a Twins prospect group since Berrios/Buxton/Sano/Polanco/Rosario/Kepler were all in this position of being 1-2-3 years away from the majors.  It's a testament to the Twins drafting and development that they've been able to stack groups of prospects of this kind of talent back to back in the way that they have.  

Lewis, Kirilloff, Gordon, Wade, Romero, Gonsalves, Graterol just might be as impactful if not more as the above group has turned out to be.  

With all the prospect love going around someone has to mention Lamonte Wade who's now tied for second in HR among all Twins affiliates.  All while keeping the same crazy good plate discipline numbers.  I'm more and more convinced that he can be a good major league hitter despite his lack of a carrying tool.

I actually just made a post about him.  He's been my guy for a year plus or now.  I'm extremely high on guys that can command a plate appearance, get on base, and make contact in the way he's been able to with almost shocking consistency in his numbers at every level so far.  He's gonna fly under the radar and he has and a lack of skillset with a potential superstar ceiling is gonna keep him from being talked about, but I will really be surprised if he doesn't outperform the #4 OF monicker given to him. 

Look at the career Grossman's been able to carve out for himself with this same type of trait as his most elite skill.  This is despite Grossman being below average on the base paths and not being able to field a position positively.  Grossman has even less of a hit tool than Wade has shown at similar levels and even if the hit tool is similar, Wade packages it with much fewer strikeouts, plus speed, positive baserunning value, and arguably plus defense at any OF position.  If Wade is a Grossman clone with the bat, but has a bigger package with the speed, defense, and more contact...I can't see how that skillset doesn't play up even further than Grossman has been able to make it do.  Further, in a modern MLB with rising strikeout numbers, fewer guys being able to hit for average, and even get on base.  Wade's skillset is one that many teams are going to desperately try and seek and one that's a relatively scarce in the current market. 

Put it this way, there's tons of guys who can hit 20 HRs and 20-25 XBH to a degree that's never been seen before in the MLB.  There was a time when this skillset was scarce and guys who could offer this were extremely sought after.  Now 40 HR guys struggle to get signed and have to sign short term prove it deals for low AAVs (Logan Morrison).  Modern MLB teams, the Twins included, are full of guys that can hit 40-50 extra bases and drive in tons of runs--but what they lack are guys that can get on base at somewhere close to a .380-.400 clip and also have speed.  

Kepler, Rosario, Sano, Dozier, and even Buxton if he returns to last year's numbers or basically the heart of the Twins lineup are all going to go for 40+ extra base hits...they're stuck throwing Mauer out in the leadoff spot or underutilizing Dozier's power.  This is a skillset that the Twins and many teams want and Wade provides.  The pitching will get tougher as Wade goes to AAA and the majors, but BB% numbers and the ability to command an at bat skill that Wade provides should allow him to continue to steadily provide a .275-.295 average and .370-.400 OBP. This ability along with speed to maximize bases while on base should allow Wade to be an extremely valuable player for a team even if he only hits 25 doubles, 4-5 triples, 10 HRs, and 15 SBs...which seems to be pretty much his floor in my eyes.  

Wade might not have a high ceiling or even a ceiling much higher than that (think 30 doubles, 5 3Bs, 15 HRs, 15 SBs), but he's gonna get on base a TON and score a TON of runs.  You can't build your team around him, but adding him to a lineup with run producers in place--he's the perfect asset to maximize your run producers skillsets.  

That's all Wade is and isn't and I can't see him really being more or less than a guy who puts up those kinds of numbers--he might even be closer to the floor I listed.  He's gonna help a team out big time. 

There have been a bunch already. 

 

Rumors are the Lewis could move up very soon, but I think Kirilloff has put himself in position to move up too. Rortvedt could move. Graterol... I'm not sure. They're not going to push him too fast.

Are we talking A+ or AA?  Lewis (19 -- 20 in June) and Kirillof (20 -- 21 in Nov) at AA this quickly must be more than the Twins could even expect.  Both guys could get 100 games and if the success continues, start at AAA sometime early in the 2019-20 season.

Do you see the Twins moving Wade up to AAA when these two are moved up to AA? 

Is it just me or does Graterol remind anyone of a young King Felix?

Kirilloff is becoming a very intriguing prospect!

I'm impressed with the control for someone as young as he is and will be watching to see if that continues.  How's the movement on his FB, obviously when we're talking 100+ we're talking icing on the cake, but if he throws that hard with any kind of movement--wow.  

 

Or is that kind of thing where it flattens out at when he's touching 99-101 and when he's at 95-98 it's got a little bit more movement to it. 

 

What's his best secondary pitch?  Can he control it yet? 

From the two videos of parts of his start that I can find: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0vU8SYUFR8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PuvyKtNB22Y

I don't think my eye for this stuff is that great, but his fastball looks like it has a little run but is overall fairly straight.  I can't tell if he's mixing in any two seamers.  The slider command looked pretty great though.  Got at least two called strikes and two swinging strikes on it in the second video.