Twins Daily Top 20 Prospect Updates (Part 1: 11-20)

My Chattanooga Boys are representing well this season.

I have to say - I think Duffy's stat line is worthy of a "Slightly Up" grading.  He has the best Whip on the staff and his K's are second only to Berrios.  Also a 2.76 ERA ain't so bad.  

Great to see Kepler off to great start.  Just hoping he stays consistent and healthy for the entire season.  His swing is amazing.

Walker is up to 8 doubles and is starting to put up numbers like he had in Cedar Rapids 2 years ago.  Now if he can just curb those K's some.  The most exciting thing for me about Walker this year is that 5 of his 9 HRs are to the opposite field.  Batting 3 thru 6 is middle of the order.  Batting 7th is at the back of the order IMO.  

Harrison has a steady approach at the plate and will fight for the Doubles title at seasons end again this year.  Great eye around the zone helps with his excellent OBP.

Turner is arguably the best defensive catcher in minors.  39% is ridiculous!

Reed is starting to look like the Reed of old.  I wouldn't be scared to put him in during a close game anymore.  Righting that Ship.

For the Record - No Way Zach Jones shouldn't be a Top 20 guy.  

I would remove the "slightly" from Harrison and just say "up."  I would also say Turner is a "down." If he sports an OPS in the .500's his prospect status should crash to sub Eric Fryer level.

Aren't you being a bit tough on Reed, Seth?

After skipping Hi-A, a rough start at AA could be expected.  The important comment was, "He has been better of late." 

I don't agree with Kepler or Walker being up, considering they are ranked fairly high to begin with. Kepler is a corner outfielder who doesn't walk or hit for power. Walker is basically a home run derby player more than a baseball player.

I do think Duffey's stock has risen, though Seth had him a little high after last season so I don't know that he should really be much higher even with improvement.

I don't question Walker's work ethic. I'm sure he'd rather be an all around great hitter. But there is something missing from his skill set in terms of picking up pitch location and movement.

I'm skeptical it's fixable, based on other prospects with similar issues.

My own assessment would be:

Minier - Flat

Harrison - Slightly up 

Reed - Slightly up (I think his ERA and WHIP are unlucky, good peripherals, might be above Burdi for me)

Turner - Slightly down (his bat showed a bit more promise last year)

Duffey - Up (I was a little less bullish on him preseason, he could be headed into the top 10 right now)

Rogers - Flat

Walker - Flat (yes he's hit a lot of home runs but he's always done that and his K/BB doesn't point to any improvement in other areas)

Gonsalves - Up

Kepler - Slightly up

Thorpe - Slightly down

ABW's inability to draw walks so far is why clearing out Arcia to make space for him is a foolish idea. Seth is right: the power is absolutely legit. But until he learns to draw some walks he'll get killed against MLB pitching. 

I'm really rooting for Kepler, who just as he seems to be figuring it out has had injury issues. Here's hoping he continues to build on success. He's got tools and seems to finally be translating them to on-field success. I like his positional flexibility and he looks like a real asset.

Thorpe's Tommy John surgery is a real shame, but hopefully he can come back from it. It's a little concerning that it's hit on him so early in his career; does this mean there's a problem in his mechanics that's going to make this a recurring problem? Or force a change that will cause him to lose effectiveness? His youth suggests greater opportunity to come back from the injury, but does it also portend greater injury concerns in the future?

I think Zack Jones is a Top 20 guy at this point, and I think that Chih-Wei Hu is a top ten guy at this point. This list was made in February and had input from several Twins Daily writers. 

 

 

That's all up for debate and we didn't do a new ranking yet to determine where they woudl actually wind up. That's always much more difficult to assume AND I would poitn out that altering someone too much based on 5 weeks of a season (or in my individual case seeing them in spring training or in Cedar Rapids, etc.) may not make a lot of sense. 

I agree that 5 weeks isn't enough to change rankings.  I appreciate everything you wrote.  My assessment of Zach is that I always thought him a Top prospect.  Inconsistencies and all, because all he did was win at every level.  And with amazing stuff.  Love reading this stuff and hearing counter points.

ABW's inability to draw walks so far is why clearing out Arcia to make space for him is a foolish idea. Seth is right: the power is absolutely legit. But until he learns to draw some walks he'll get killed against MLB pitching. 

Today he would get killed by Major league pitching.  In the near future, I'm not so sure.  The same thing has been said about him since the Draft and Rookie ball.  All he does is continue to help his teams win games.   Not just an OBP guy who never seems to pass second base.  By your theory - Polanco doesn't have a chance.  He has less walks than Walker .

Apologies if this is slightly off-topic but I was wondering what's the latest with Luke Bard?  I've tried poking around the net and can't find anything!

Good update, Seth!  Nice work!

Gonsalves - cannot see him not making the major, most lefties get several chances and worst would be a LOOGY.

Thorpe - Should be lower until next year or two years to prove he is back

Think Rogers should be lower and Duffey higher just because of upside.

Could see Kepler cracking the top 10 by the end of the year.

I thought it would be useful to think about what sort of careers these players might have by comparing the prospects to some past MLB players.  

 

For each prospect, I have listed below an MLBer that the prospect would be comparable to in the best case (i.e., if the prospect does the best that could reasonably be hoped). I also listed a player I think the prospect will most likely end up like.  Below BC="Best Case" comparison, MLC="Most-Likely Case" comparison, and DMM="Doesn't make the majors".  Let me know what you think.

 

Thorpe: BC=Mike Flanagan, MLC=DMM

 

Kepler: BC=Fred Lynn, MLC=John Lowenstein

 

Gonsalves: BC=Scott McGregor, MLC=DMM

 

Walker: BC=Lee May, MLC=Mike Devereaux

 

Rogers: BC=Scott McGregor, MLC=Tippy Martinez

 

Duffey: BC=Storm Davis, MLC=Sammy Stewart

 

Turner: BC=Rick Dempsey, MLC=Dave Skaggs

 

Reed: BC=Tim Stoddard, MLC=DMM

 

Harrison: BC=Doug Decinces, MLC=Craig Worthington

 

Minier: BC=Ken Singleton, MLC=DMM

Must be a former Oriole fan.

Thanks, Seth! These sorts of articles are great for those of us (like me) who don't regularly read the daily minor league reports, but are still looking for periodic updates on how the kids on the farm are doing.

Here's hoping there's also a Part 3, on guys not in the Top 20 who are making some noise and seeing their stars rise.

For what it is worth - Arcia had a .375 Career Minor League OBP (7 seasons).  

Sometimes the obvious outcome isn't always the obvious outcome.  Now he sports a .304 OBP in the MLB.  Who here would have figured that and if so why?

Mauer's OBP stayed similar from the minors to majors.

Torri spent 3 years in AA and his second season in AA resulted in a .305 OBP.

Sometimes the obvious outcome isn't always the obvious outcome.  Torri's first 4 years in the MLB resulted in a .316; .309; .318; & .306 OBP respectively thru those years.  He now sports a career .334 OBP.   Players evolve every year and when it clicks - BAM - you have yourself a 10+ year vet.  

We need patience with all these young prospects.

While I think the jury is still out on Walker I just want to point out that he has shown improvement when looking at April vs May splits.

K%

39.7% in April (29K / 73PA), 23.6% May (13K / 55PA)

BABIP

.333 in April, .278 in May (when he's made contact he's been a bit unlucky so far in May)

OPS

.832 in April, .895 in May

His walk rate is abysmal but he ls making more contact and could indicate that he's making better decisions at the plate. Maybe he's Sammy Sosa without the juice but could put up Sosa's juiced numbers??

If he could sustain a 23% K rate I think he gets to the big leagues, even if he only takes 40 BB a year.  But that is pretty far off his career norms. 

Walker had 44 BB last year in High A and that was more than everyone on either of the Twins AA & AAA teams (except Romero).  That number would have ranked him 4th on the Twins MLB team last year.  Still a work in progress but lets put things in perspective.  He is getting better.  His K Rate in 2013 was 20.8% (Not bad for a power hitter).  I believe he can get back to that since he has shown he could do it before.  

We all assume what these kids are trying to work on, but no one really knows what these coaches are asking them to work on too.  It would be nice to know what the system plan is for these kids each part of a season, before we pass assumptions.  I'm guilty as well.