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  • Twins Daily 2018 Top Prospects: #4 Stephen Gonsalves


    Seth Stohs

    A couple of the pitchers that you have already read about in our Twins Top 10 prospect series. One is known for a killer curveball. Today’s pitcher isn’t known for either of those things and yet he was likely the easiest choice to make when the front office was considering who to add to the 40-man roster in November. He is on the cusp of what many believe could be a long major league career.

    Find out today why Stephen Gonsalves finds himself securely among the Top 5 Minnesota Twins prospects.

    Twins Video

    Age: 23 (DOB: 7/8/1994)

    2017 Stats (Rookie): 110.0 IP, 3.27 ERA, 118 K, 31 BB, 1.14 WHIP

    ETA: 2018

    2017 Ranking: 2

    National Top 100 Rankings

    BA: 97 | MLB: 78 | ESPN: NA | BP: NA

    What’s To Like?

    Stephen Gonsalves looks the part of a big league pitcher. The left-hander stands 6-5 and is lean, weighing in around 210 pounds, allowing himself to maintain his flexibility. He’s got a classic set up and delivery. While he may not throw his fastball in the upper 90s, once he got rolling in 2017, he was sitting 91 to 94 mph. Most of the time, he’s got pretty good control and command.

    Gonsalves is also said to have a plus-plus changeup. His smooth delivery and consistant release points make it a very effective pitch.

    He is also a very hard worker and some might even say he has had a chip on his shoulder since “falling” to the fourth round of the 2013 draft. “I just like to always think that there are guys ahead of me that I’m always chasing. I think that’s my biggest motivation. There’s always going to be someone better than you, and you just have to paint that target on their back and go after them. That’s what gets me going every day, and keeps me working and keeps me going after it. I like to think that I’m not there yet to give me something to work for and keep grinding.”

    What’s Left To Work On?

    At this stage, the still-just-23-year-old lefty is really just tweaking a few things in his game to prepare himself for the next step, the big leagues.

    He spent time this offseason working out with long-time major league veteran David Wells. “David Wells will help me out a little bit more to further my game, just being one of the older guys I’ve worked with. I’ve been working with Strasburg and Chris Young as well. So I’ve been able to lean on those guys a lot. I’m excited to work with David. He was one of those lefties. We all talk about how my curveball is slow and loopy, but he had one of those big, big loopy curveballs. So hopefully he can help me further that pitch so I can really get that fourth pitch down and I can come into this 2018 season with a bang.

    He’s also put a lot of work into a cutter/slider in recent offseasons. “That slider did get developed really well this season working with Ivan Arteaga in AA Chattanooga. We tweaked some things because it got a little slower - 82, 83 - when we were trying to get it to 86-88. It ended up becoming my second or third pitch. It’s almost as good as my changeup, I think. I am excited. As long as we can get that curveball going, I think we’ll be in a good place.”

    Gonsalves missed time in the Arizona Fall League in 2016, and midway through big league spring training last year, as he fought a shoulder issue which cost him the first six weeks of the season. But Gonsalves ended 2017 strong and looks to a healthy, full season in 2018.

    What’s Next?

    The pattern throughout Gonsalves’s career has been to start each season at the level he finished the previous, and he’s found benefit from doing that. That is likely what will happen again in 2018. With just three AAA starts under his belt, expect him to get at least a half-season with the Red Wings just to continue working on and tweaking a few things.

    (Quotes from Seth’s Twins On Deck Podcast Episode 1)

    TD Top Prospects: 16-20

    TD Top Prospects: 11-15

    TD Top Prospect: #10 Akil Baddoo

    TD Top Prospect: #9 Brusdar Graterol

    TD Top Prospects: #8 Blayne Enlow

    TD Top Prospects: #7 Brent Rooker

    TD Top Prospects: #6 Wander Javier

    TD Top Prospects: #5 Alex Kirilloff

    TD Top Prospects: #4 Stephen Gonsalves

    TD Top Prospects: #3 (Coming Soon)

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    If you can dial it up to 93-94 as a left handed starter, that's pretty darn good.

     

    I think Gio Gonzales is pretty good comp (not just because the names are phonetically similar). The way he's pitched with velocity declining late in his career is a pretty good blueprint for Gonsalves. Both have decent fastballs, big looping curveballs, sliders and changeups.

     

    Gonzales has the better curveball, and Gonsalves has the better changeup, but they're pretty similar.

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    I am ready to take a chance.  What are our options?  Do you think Slegers really has potential?  It we do not get Cobb or Lynn is there anyone out there with the potential to make us better?  I am not a believer in Hughes, Pineda is not ready.  Put the young guys in.  Like I said before they can be pulled when Santana comes back.  I do not care if it is Gonsalves or Romero or both.  But I want us to do something to move us forward - especially towards 2019.

    The options are bad since we didn't get Darvish and didn't trade for somebody. I would rather have a cheap 1 year deal than force Gonzo or Romero into something they are not ready for and end up with Slegers and Hughes anyway and nobody after them.

     

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    Throwing 90+ is nice, but not mandatory to be successful.  Especially as a left hander.

     

    Was talking to an old lefty 10-15 years ago.  When someone else asked about throwing hard, he pointed out he never got close to 90.  But if you hit your spots, every time with every pitch, you can be very successful.  Although it was a different time, he was more successful than any lefty ever...if you go by the number of major league wins!

     

    Gonsalves throws low to mid-90's.  Plenty hard if he can put all three of his best pitches where he wants em,

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    The issue I have with Gonsalves is that I am not sure how his fastball will translate in the majors, and if that does not translate, he will be more like Dan Serafini than Jason Vargas.  Vargas is a good comparable, btw, as far as a lefty whose best pitch is a plus plus (or close to) change up and his fastball is not quite there.

     

    Gonsalves's fastball's (89-91 btw, and sporadically higher) issue is its location.  He throws at 3/4 and the fastball does not really move down the zone much.  He gets minor leaguers to swing and miss up the zone or get grounders because it has a high spin and they have a hard time squaring the barrel of the bat to it.  Major leaguers take these belt high and higher fastballs to the concessions.  

     

    That already happened to him at AAA last season and that league is full of people who can hit the fastball.  He usually averaged about 0.2 to 0.3 HR/9 previously.  In AAA he gave up 1.6 HR/9.  And then he riles and started to try to paint the corners and walked a career high 4.9 per 9...

     

    Unless he gets move movement and he throws it lower in the strike zone with plus command, he will be dead meat in the majors, because even if your change up is plus, if major leaguers are sitting it...

     

     

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    I have the same concern, major leaguers will foul off the very hard to hit pitches from Gonsalves and cream the mistakes.  Can he be fine enough to get major league hitters out on a regular basis, time will tell (and so will year 2).

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    I am ready to take a chance.  What are our options?  Do you think Slegers really has potential?  It we do not get Cobb or Lynn is there anyone out there with the potential to make us better?  I am not a believer in Hughes, Pineda is not ready.  Put the young guys in.  Like I said before they can be pulled when Santana comes back.  I do not care if it is Gonsalves or Romero or both.  But I want us to do something to move us forward - especially towards 2019.

     

    Well if the Twins don't add Cobb or Lynn and don't trade for a starter i gotta imagine they'll roll with Berrios leading the rotation followed by Gibson, Meija, Slegers and Enns. 

     

    It also depends on Hughes status.  If he's healthy i think the Twins give him every opportunity to start regardless of results the first couple of weeks because they are short experienced starters.  The way i see it 2019 is likely a lost season now that Santana is down the first two months unless they add a quality starter to the rotation or someone else takes a major step forward besides Berrios. 

     

    The improved bullpen will certainly help but it likely won't be enough.  The way i see it let's give the youngsters their chance to step forward and shine.  I'm also not opposed to reaching down deep to Chattanooga depending on where Littell and Romero start.  Heck Thorpe might get a look later in the season if he pitches well this year.  

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    It's going to be a lot of fun when Gonsalves makes his debut and we get a look at some of his measurables. I'd be willing to bet he has some really unique attributes -- release point/extension or spin rates -- that would provide some explanation as to why he's been so effective. The Twins have access to those things, but that data is not yet public on the minor leaguers.

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    The options are bad since we didn't get Darvish and didn't trade for somebody. I would rather have a cheap 1 year deal than force Gonzo or Romero into something they are not ready for and end up with Slegers and Hughes anyway and nobody after them.

    I agree with the options are bad, but I have faith in young people to meet challenges - maybe it comes from all my years teaching college, but some can really rise to the challenge and I say go for it. 

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    So the tall lanky, lean lefty is seeking advice from David Wells who is the polar opposite physically.   

     

    If he teaches Gonsalves how to aim an occasional FB at the belt buckle of a guy who's crowding the plate, that might be good.

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    I really hope he continues to pitch well. I hope some of his struggles in AAA (he had an ERA over 5) can be ironed out. I think they will as he is coming into the year fully healthy. It really doesn’t sound like he’s that far off, if his breaking pitches are improved he’ll be a better pitcher.

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    I'm really hoping Gonsalves has a high floor and can stick around for quite a while in the middle-back end of the rotation.  It's hard to expect a lot more than that from a pitcher who relies on control and some deception, and doesn't have the most filthy or overpowering of stuff.  People have comp'd Gonsalves to Jaime Garcia, but I just don't see it.  Garcia has a tight windup and release, and throws some loopy stuff.  Gonsalves is long and loose and slings the ball, more like a poor-man's Chris Sale. 

     

    But my favorite comp is to Jeremy Hellickson.  Though Hellickson is a righty, watch the two pitching and you'll see that they have the same delivery and same approach to getting batters out.  They have very similar minor league numbers.  Hellickson was very successful his first two years in the majors, though his K/9 numbers dropped drastically in the majors from the minors.  I think to be honest we should expect the same thing from Gonsalves.  But if Gonsalves can stay healthy and pitch to an ERA in the mid to high 3's, he could be a big help to the team for at least a few years.

     

    If his changeup is plus plus as mentioned in the article, I think calling Gonsalves a control/deception guys is unfair. We did have some kid named Santana who had quite the career off of a good changeup. Not saying Gonsalves is the next Johan, but that kind of a pitch can make for a long and above average major league career. 

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