Twins 2015 Minor League Hitter Of The Year - Max Kepler

Jeremy must really hate strikeouts - Lol

I actually don't mind strikeouts. I just prefer my hitters have an ability to get on base. If you can slug 500 but barely have an OPS of 800, you're doing something wrong.

But that's why five people vote, not just me.

When you lead the league / organization in Total Bases (250) that should offset the OBP part just a little.  And when you put yourself in scoring position more  than anyone in the organization (65 XBH) that should offset the OBP part just a little. 

And when you score 75 times (purpose of the game), which is one less time than Mad Max (deserving winner by the way), OBP doesn't seem as important to me.   Max had an OBP and OPS much much higher than Walker, but in terms of how that helped his team win more games, you will have to explain that to me.  That is the purpose of the game - Score more runs than your opponent and nobody does it better in the organization (3 years running) than Walker (scoring and rbi collectively).    I'm assuming that is why you appreciate OBP and OPS in your hitters?    For the purpose of enhancing the ability to scoring runs.    Like the song goes:   "Nobody does it better"

When you lead the league / organization in Total Bases (250) that should offset the OBP part just a little.  And when you put yourself in scoring position more  than anyone in the organization (65 XBH) that should offset the OBP part just a little. 

 

And when you score 75 times (purpose of the game), which is one less time than Mad Max (deserving winner by the way), OBP doesn't seem as important to me.   Max had an OBP and OPS much much higher than Walker, but in terms of how that helped his team win more games, you will have to explain that to me.  That is the purpose of the game - Score more runs than your opponent and nobody does it better in the organization (3 years running) than Walker (scoring and rbi collectively).    I'm assuming that is why you appreciate OBP and OPS in your hitters?    For the purpose of enhancing the ability to scoring runs.    Like the song goes:   "Nobody does it better"

Most of the measures where Adam Brett Walker has Max Kepler beat are because he played 21 more games in AA than Max Kepler did. There is something to be said about actually being on the field and playing every day but Kepler spent some time in high A before going to AA. Kepler's OBP and OPS are so much higher than Walker's that I can see the case for favoring them over what you mentioned. 

When you lead the league / organization in Total Bases (250) that should offset the OBP part just a little.  And when you put yourself in scoring position more  than anyone in the organization (65 XBH) that should offset the OBP part just a little. 

 

And when you score 75 times (purpose of the game), which is one less time than Mad Max (deserving winner by the way), OBP doesn't seem as important to me.   Max had an OBP and OPS much much higher than Walker, but in terms of how that helped his team win more games, you will have to explain that to me. 

To see why total bases isn't as useful as OBP realize that if you get on base twice in 2 ABs with two singles, two walks, or a walk and a single, that is better than getting a double one AB and an out another AB in those same 2 ABs. This is because while an out decreases the odds significantly of further runs from the next batter(s), neither a walk nor a single do that. Now you might say, well a double is more likely to knock in a runner on 3rd, 2nd, or even (depending on the runner and the hit) 1B.  But a single is likely to knock in a runner from 2B or 3B, and both a single and a BB will move runners on 1st to 2nd, and runners on 2nd and 1st to 3rd and 2nd, etc. And since we are assuming there are two of them, it does this twice, not just once. So on the ledger side of 1 double, 1 out, we have (1 occasion when any runners are moved over 2 or 3 bases, plus a guaranteed runner on 2, but we also have one occasion where no runners are moved along, and also an out, significantly reducing the chances for further runs from other batters that inning.)  On the ledger side of 2 singles, 2 walks, or 1 of each we have (2 occasions when some runners are moved over a base or two (including scoring from 2B on singles), and 2 occasions with guaranteed runners on 1B, and no occasions where no runners are moved along, and also no outs reducing the chances of further hits, BB, and runs). 

This is my long-winded attempt at explaining quasi-intuitively what standard statistical regressions have mathematically shown.  One point of OBP is worth more than AVG, and even one point of OBP is worth more than one point SLG. Of course, walks and singles are not worth the same either, with walks being less valuable (because they can't knock in a runner from 2B for instance).  To deal with all of these relative values, sabermetrics has come up with wOBA, which attempts to fully value each kind of hit or walk by its likelihood of leading to a run. This has shown (and this will probably strike many people as being wrong - but really it isn't) that a HR is worth only a little bit more than twice a single (2.35 times actually).  Of course Sano's HR versus KC the other night in the 12th was worth more than 2.35 times a single in that situation. Probably much much more. But wOBA is context independent. It values each hit according to how much value it would have on an average occasion.

You can read about that here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-joy-of-woba/

Here is more on the relative values of different outcomes:  http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/woba/

I don't understand putting ABWIII ahead of Sano.  Can anyone explain that?

Great call on Kepler, he is an athletic OBP machine. ABW runner up is spot on. Look at the impact those 2 have. Here's a team that lost Buxton, Sano, Berrios, Duffy, has had a inconsistent (to put it mildly) bullpen and is 1 win away from playing for the Championshipm. Go Lookouts, Go Dougie

Oh, want to add credits to Harrison, Polanco, DJ Hicks (been turning it on lately) Meneses, the starters and all the others.

To see why total bases isn't as useful as OBP realize that if you get on base twice in 2 ABs with two singles, two walks, or a walk and a single, that is better than getting a double one AB and an out another AB in those same 2 ABs. This is because while an out decreases the odds significantly of further runs from the next batter(s), neither a walk nor a single do that. Now you might say, well a double is more likely to knock in a runner on 3rd, 2nd, or even (depending on the runner and the hit) 1B.  But a single is likely to knock in a runner from 2B or 3B, and both a single and a BB will move runners on 1st to 2nd, and runners on 2nd and 1st to 3rd and 2nd, etc. And since we are assuming there are two of them, it does this twice, not just once. So on the ledger side of 1 double, 1 out, we have (1 occasion when any runners are moved over 2 or 3 bases, plus a guaranteed runner on 2, but we also have one occasion where no runners are moved along, and also an out, significantly reducing the chances for further runs from other batters that inning.)  On the ledger side of 2 singles, 2 walks, or 1 of each we have (2 occasions when some runners are moved over a base or two (including scoring from 2B on singles), and 2 occasions with guaranteed runners on 1B, and no occasions where no runners are moved along, and also no outs reducing the chances of further hits, BB, and runs). 

 

This is my long-winded attempt at explaining quasi-intuitively what standard statistical regressions have mathematically shown.  One point of OBP is worth more than AVG, and even one point of OBP is worth more than one point SLG. Of course, walks and singles are not worth the same either, with walks being less valuable (because they can't knock in a runner from 2B for instance).  To deal with all of these relative values, sabermetrics has come up with wOBA, which attempts to fully value each kind of hit or walk by its likelihood of leading to a run. This has shown (and this will probably strike many people as being wrong - but really it isn't) that a HR is worth only a little bit more than twice a single (2.35 times actually).  Of course Sano's HR versus KC the other night in the 12th was worth more than 2.35 times a single in that situation. Probably much much more. But wOBA is context independent. It values each hit according to how much value it would have on an average occasion.

 

You can read about that here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-joy-of-woba/

 

Here is more on the relative values of different outcomes:  http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/woba/

ABW's wOBA of .367 ain't bad

Most of the measures where Adam Brett Walker has Max Kepler beat are because he played 21 more games in AA than Max Kepler did. There is something to be said about actually being on the field and playing every day but Kepler spent some time in high A before going to AA. Kepler's OBP and OPS are so much higher than Walker's that I can see the case for favoring them over what you mentioned. 

I wasn't arguing Walker's numbers over Keplers.    Mad Max is the best hitter in the system this year (hands down).    I was saying that Walker had a better hitting season than the 5 other people Jeremy selected over Walker.    As I tried to compare Walker to Kepler - I guess I was trying to say that Keplers numbers were rare in their own right and allowed "some" argument where as the other 5 don't even compare IMO.      Nothing to do with becoming a better prospect or future value.    Just the 2015 season value alone.    Walker  had special 2015 season.  With the positives and negatives reaching for former Twin comparisons to think about.  Hard to find any.  And his positives have him 1 game from his 3rd championship in 4 years.

Why did the Twins not call up Reynaldo Rodriguez in September.  They lack a right handed pinch hit weapon off the bench on days when Torii is playing.  Seems like a nothing-to-lose and everything-to-gain proposition.

Also surprised that Beresford didn't get a call up.  Wouldn't want to see him play a ton but he would be useful as a pinch runner/hitter in an extra innings game.  If it gets too crowded in the dugout, have some of those guys watch from the clubhouse until they're needed.

And finally, agree with Jeremy.  I might have ranked ABW a bit higher but he has a right to his opinion and its not based on nothing.  The K's for ABW are an issue which will prevent him from being anything more than a 4th OF in the majors UNLESS he can get them under control.  He is only 23 so that's a strong possibility but he hasn't so far and if you look at this year, he didn't do it yet. That's an issue.

Man, you guys are getting pretty worked up. I'm comfortable putting Walker where I did. I don't think he had a great season. I'm not making a point, I had about 20 guys I considered, then I lined them up. Nothing personal against Walker. And when I do my off-season prospect list, I'll probably rank him lower than the other guys too. Which is OK. That's how opinions work. And I'll read yours and respect that it's your opinion too. But getting worked up that one person of five ranked a player where he did seems excessive.

(Although, subconsciously, maybe I do have a deep-rooted hatred towards Walkers from Wisconsin.)

Not worked up.    Never.    Just disagree with your thoughts.    That's what the forum is for, right?   Discussion and points of view.    I respect the right that everyone has the right to think what they feel.    Same fun arguments you and Seth probably have all year.      All in fun.

Walker helps guide Lookouts into SL Finals

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150914&content_id=149547528&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_l111&sid=l111