Push Candidate: Adam Brett Walker III

and I certainly think that there are two points in the system where there are "put up or shut up" moments for a player-- the first full season in Cedar Rapids, and first season with MLB-caliber talent in Chattanooga.

The first player to be featured is one who creates a major stir in discussions at Twins Daily, with maybe only Joe Mauer causing more of a split in the intelligent fan base between people on opposing sides of player evaluation. I am talking about Adam Brett Walker III. Here, I do not want to get this discussion mired in repetition of the same usual stuff about Walker. Instead, the purpose is to just lay out the full range of possibilities for Walker, letting them speak for themselves.

The Player

Adam Walker is 23 years old (DOB: October 18, 1991) and is 6'4", 225+ pounds. He was drafted in the third round of the 2012 draft by the Twins out of Jacksonsville University and has played 285 minor league games, all as a right fielder. He bats right-handed, has tremendous power and decent speed. Starting in 2012 in rookie ball (Elizabethon), Walker has progressed one step at a time through the system, playing a full season in 2014 at Fort Myers. It looks like 2015 would mean one more step up the ladder to AA Chattanooga.

The Situation

Walker has displayed great power and bad plate discipline each of his three seasons in the organization. In his first full season he posted a .278/.319/.526 (.844) line, with 31 doubles, seven triples and 27 homers. He stole 10 bases in 10 attempts. In 552 plate appearances, he walked only 31 times while striking out 115 times. I thought after the 2013 season that much of the complaining about his K rate and the K/BB rate were overblown. Strikeouts simply come with tremendous power, Albert Pujols being one of only a few exceptions. I also thought that the walks would come as he gained more experience.

2014 didn't really resolve anything. He moved to the pitcher-dominated FSL and kept the homers coming. And the strikeouts. He put together a .246/.307/.436 (.743) line with 19 doubles, one triple and 25 homers. He had nine steals in 14 attempts. In 554 plate appearances (neatly close to identical for comparison's sake) he walked 44 times and struck out 156 times. So the walks did increase some, and I am still not overly concerned about the sheer number of strikeouts by themselves. Clearly, though, these strikeouts mean lower contact as his batting average dropped 32 points.

What does actually concern me is that the doubles and triples really dropped. The latter might be a result of losing some overall speed and athleticism as he fills out and bulks up, but the drop in doubles is strange. His isolated power in 2013 was a whopping .248 (Willie Stargell territory), but in 2014 in dropped to .190 (Ryan Zimmerman territory). It is still impressive, but much less so than the power that really stood out in 2013. So this leads to an important question: Where are the Twins going to send Walker in 2015?

The Possibilities

Walker might be kept in Fort Myers to work on plate discipline and contact rate. The Twins do keep players in A-ball if they struggle there. Some examples: Aaron Hicks, Chris Parmelee, and Joe Benson spent the equivalent of two seasons in Beloit, Angel Morales stuck around in Fort Myers for the equivalent of two full seasons, and Levi Michael was in his third year at Fort Myers in 2014 before hitting his way to AA. This would keep Walker facing the level of pitching that he is familiar with so that there would be no added pressure and he can focus on rounding out (as much as possible) his batting approach.

The parenthetical remark above points to another direction, however. It is just not wise to think of Adam Walker as an all-around batter who just needs some polish. Rather, he is likely primarily a slugger, and as such is a poor man's Miguel Sano, in that he lacks the potential that Sano has in becoming a near-complete package as a batter. There's still a lot of value in that power alone, especially if Walker can become an average or slightly above average right fielder. Following this line of thought, I would say that Walker should be promoted to AA Chattanooga to see if the move away from the pitcher-dominated FSL to the merely pitcher-friendly Southern League can let his bat skills take off.

Subsequent struggles with contact could be ironed out with extended time in AA. I would hate to see Walker stagnate in Fort Myers and then have adjustment issues in AA to still deal with a year from now. I think it is better to push him now and see what happens, especially given how dominant and supportive the supporting lineup in Chattanooga is going to be for at least the first few months.

Undoubtedly, the debate about Walker will continue as the strikeouts aren't going to drop significantly and the walks aren't going to grow significantly in AA this year. I am going to be most interested in watching the slugging get back north of .460, at the very least. Improved defense and maintaining a moderate stolen base threat would help Walker progress nicely through the system.