Minor League Report (6/5): Steer, Kirilloff, Hamilton Power Home Run Record for Saints

35 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Here is the best way to comp him,  He is Arreaz  with what will likely be more speed and better defense.  He is not impressing at SS as he has been a bit all over the place.  I think his OBP will be between .375 and .420 in the big leagues.  Essentially he would be a top 20 OBP machine if he were to come up to the big leagues now.  No offense but that plays anywhere.  I think he would be a top level left fielder for defense or utility infielder.   If he is not impressing you offensively its because your probably focused on home runs.  As to exciting plays he is up to 20 stolen bases.   The real question is should the Twins try to continue to focus on SS defense with him, which if he does figure it out becomes a much more valuable trade chip,  or backup for Lewis or whoever is our shortstop.   If he finds a little power he is a top 20 offensive talent in the big leagues, again that is rarified air right there.  

Are we talking about the same Austin Martin?  Martin has been 23 literally this entire year, and is OPSing .685--that is lower than 9 of the 10 teams in the Texas League are OPSing.  His average is .247, which is lower than 8 of 10 teams.  Even his best skill (OBP) is only third amongst 10 teams.  If you're going to be 23, at AA, and a global top 100 prospect all at the same time, you have to be better than the average of every team on at least one of those.  The speed is nice and all, but speed is useless while sitting on the bench.  The positional flexibility is nice and all, but he's behind Lewis, Polanco, Arraez, Palacios, Miranda (and potentially Steer) in the infield, and behind Buxton, Celestino, Larnach, Kepler, and Kiriloff in the outfield, to say nothing of Gordon, Urshela, Garlick, or Correa if he opts in or the Twins sign him long-term.  That puts him at best 11th on the the Twins position player pecking list (assuming you put him ahead of Gordon, Steer, Garlick, and Correa is gone);  that's the cutoff since there will only be 13 position players, and two will be catchers.

The comp to Arraez is actually not particularly great--here are Arraez' stats in his age 23 season; .321/.364/.402/.766.  Clearly better than Martin's current slash line of .247/.361/.324/.685, especially when you consider that Luis put up his line for the Twins, not the Wind Surge.  Your claim that Martin would be a top 20 OBP machine in the majors right now is patently insane, since he's currently tied for 31st in the Texas league for OBP--are you really stating Martin would perform significantly better in MLB if promoted today than he's currently performing in AA?

13 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Here is the best way to comp him,  He is Arreaz  with what will likely be more speed and better defense.  He is not impressing at SS as he has been a bit all over the place.  I think his OBP will be between .375 and .420 in the big leagues.  Essentially he would be a top 20 OBP machine if he were to come up to the big leagues now.  No offense but that plays anywhere.  I think he would be a top level left fielder for defense or utility infielder.   If he is not impressing you offensively its because your probably focused on home runs.  As to exciting plays he is up to 20 stolen bases.   The real question is should the Twins try to continue to focus on SS defense with him, which if he does figure it out becomes a much more valuable trade chip,  or backup for Lewis or whoever is our shortstop.   If he finds a little power he is a top 20 offensive talent in the big leagues, again that is rarified air right there.  

While I don't disagree with your description of Martin's future potential the fact is( granted in a SSS) he currently has .685 OPS at AA.  I think 6 other players ( Chris Williams, Wallner, Jullien, Isola, Bechtold and Steer when he was there) are performing better facing the same competition he is.  Several other players are not far behind his OPS number and you could argue he should be bating 8th or 9th on that team.   Even Martin's OBP isn't quite as good this year as even last year.  He has already fallen down the top 100 prospects list and if his performance remains the same I have to believe he could fall off the list entirely as he is not providing elite production.  If the numbers don't improve I would say he isn't even providing much more than average production.

His defense has been bad enough that most scouts talk about 2nd base and left field as his likely only options right now.  His strength as you noted is an Arraez type eye at the plate and I am big believer in players that work counts and use walks to their advantage but he still needs to hit and hit better than he has been. Right now he looks more like a 10th round draft pick trying to work his way up than a top of the 1st round pick.

I am not saying he won't bounce back.  He has an innate feel to hit given his college production and even last year to some degree but right now today he has a lot of work to do to get to better than average status let alone elite or Arraez status.

Thoughts on Martin...

I actually have often been impressed by his speed and overall athleticism when I've watched some AA games.  He's not a shortstop though.  It seems like with his speed the outfield might make the most sense, though with his burst speed maybe moving to second would cut down on the errors enough and he could be very rangy there.  He's also not really like Arraez, no one else is.  He does have a very low K rate and solid walk rate (and HBP rate) for someone who isn't hitting for average well.  But he's not really a slap hitter which would probably lead to a higher empty batting average.  There is probably some bad luck in his BABIP, but he also needs to gain strength and/or tweak his swing mechanics to drive the ball better so his flyballs aren't all caught at the edge of the warning track.  Personally I still see enough to think they should continue to be patient.  I think just adding a bit more power could help him quite a bit, adding not just to his HR total but also to his BABIP.

Where should he be in a prospect list?  I think he's been worrisome enough to get knocked out of one of the highest tiers.  In my mind his tier would be something like Martin, Canterino, SWR, Rodriguez, Miller, and Steer.  I think the athleticism is still too good to move him too far down that tier but it has been discouraging that he just hasn't been able to get going better at the plate, particularly in a league with a very high offensive level.

9 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Are we talking about the same Austin Martin?  Martin has been 23 literally this entire year, and is OPSing .685--that is lower than 9 of the 10 teams in the Texas League are OPSing.  His average is .247, which is lower than 8 of 10 teams.  Even his best skill (OBP) is only third amongst 10 teams.  If you're going to be 23, at AA, and a global top 100 prospect all at the same time, you have to be better than the average of every team on at least one of those.  The speed is nice and all, but speed is useless while sitting on the bench.  The positional flexibility is nice and all, but he's behind Lewis, Polanco, Arraez, Palacios, Miranda (and potentially Steer) in the infield, and behind Buxton, Celestino, Larnach, Kepler, and Kiriloff in the outfield, to say nothing of Gordon, Urshela, Garlick, or Correa if he opts in or the Twins sign him long-term.  That puts him at best 11th on the the Twins position player pecking list (assuming you put him ahead of Gordon, Steer, Garlick, and Correa is gone);  that's the cutoff since there will only be 13 position players, and two will be catchers.

The comp to Arraez is actually not particularly great--here are Arraez' stats in his age 23 season; .321/.364/.402/.766.  Clearly better than Martin's current slash line of .247/.361/.324/.685, especially when you consider that Luis put up his line for the Twins, not the Wind Surge.  Your claim that Martin would be a top 20 OBP machine in the majors right now is patently insane, since he's currently tied for 31st in the Texas league for OBP--are you really stating Martin would perform significantly better in MLB if promoted today than he's currently performing in AA?

There is certainly a regression to the mean.  I think he is still warming up,  no different than say a Correa that is in the .700 range for the contract we are paying him.  Luis Arreaz was a low .700 OPS last year,  yet you love him this year?   You like to take singular moments in time.  How about take both age 22 season.   He has been closer to .800 OPS throughout his career.  No offense I don't take 2 months to look at a prospect and say what his likely ceiling would be.   Or say we should trade him for 50 cents on the dollar thats just foolish.   I don't care about OPS for his style of game, similar to Arreaz,  especially if you add the steals into the game.  Its not patently insane I think his OBP would be top 20 in MLB right now.  Yes currently how he is playing would not,  but his style of play over a longer time frame,  I would fully see him being a top 20 OBP.  I think the experiment at SS is messing with him personally.   Look at Arreaz 2018 stats in AA,  quite a bit paltry compared to what he currently is doing.   Yes I am projecting,  even still I am fully confident his bat plays in the MLB.  

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

You can't be serious. 

For a more serious response--when the Twins acquired Martin, he was a global top 50 prospect.  Unless something drastically changes in the next month, he will probably be dropped off most lists.  A 23 year old repeating AA and getting dramatically worse while the rest of the league gets better (Martin had an OPS of .780 in Wichita last year, compared to .685 this year.  In 2021, 4 teams in AA South had an OPS above .750, this year it's 8 ) is not going to remain on top 100 lists.  Given that you have to put him on the 40 man at the end of the year, and the Twins already have too many quality prospects, trading him is a legit option, especially if you don't really have a place on the team for him coming up.

The Twins will keep 2 catcher, 6 infielders, and 5 outfielders--over the next two years, here's how that breaks down;

• C--Jeffers, ? (the Twins could try and extend Sanchez, or promote one of their prospects)
• 1B--Kiriloff, Miranda, Arraez
• 2B--Polanco (3 more years of control), Arraez
• SS--Lewis, Palacios
• 3B--Urshela (final year of Arb), Miranda, Arraez
• LF--Kiriloff, Larnach
• CF--Buxton, Celestino
• RF--Kepler (two more years of control), Larnach
• Flex--Gordon

That's already 15 guys, meaning two of them have to go before you even consider adding Martin to the 40 man.  Even if those 2 were Urshela and Sanchez, you still have to replace Sanchez' spot, which means at the end of this year the Twins are getting rid of Urshela and....who?  Probably Kepler, but that still leaves 5 quality options in the outfield, not to mention Gordon.  Maybe the Twins decide to go cheap, and get rid of Urshela, Polanco, and Kepler--you're still at 12 guys before mentioning Gordon, Steer, or anyone else the Twins decide to bring in with the money they free up there; those 3 make probably $23M next year, which is two thirds of the way to keeping Correa, or signing a top flight bat.  As such, it just makes way more sense to me to use Martin as a cornerstone of a trade to a team that thinks they can fix him for rotation or bullpen help.  If you have to bite the bullet on his reduced value, I think that makes sense right now, given that he is probably still your best trade chip, given his draft position and replaceability within the organization.

17 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

As such, it just makes way more sense to me to use Martin as a cornerstone of a trade to a team

Don't sell low on Martin. That would be like trading Royce Lewis in the 2021-22 offseason. Sell high on Steer instead.

36 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

For a more serious response--when the Twins acquired Martin, he was a global top 50 prospect.  Unless something drastically changes in the next month, he will probably be dropped off most lists.  A 23 year old repeating AA and getting dramatically worse while the rest of the league gets better (Martin had an OPS of .780 in Wichita last year, compared to .685 this year.  In 2021, 4 teams in AA South had an OPS above .750, this year it's 8 ) is not going to remain on top 100 lists.  Given that you have to put him on the 40 man at the end of the year, and the Twins already have too many quality prospects, trading him is a legit option, especially if you don't really have a place on the team for him coming up.

The Twins will keep 2 catcher, 6 infielders, and 5 outfielders--over the next two years, here's how that breaks down;

• C--Jeffers, ? (the Twins could try and extend Sanchez, or promote one of their prospects)
• 1B--Kiriloff, Miranda, Arraez
• 2B--Polanco (3 more years of control), Arraez
• SS--Lewis, Palacios
• 3B--Urshela (final year of Arb), Miranda, Arraez
• LF--Kiriloff, Larnach
• CF--Buxton, Celestino
• RF--Kepler (two more years of control), Larnach
• Flex--Gordon

That's already 15 guys, meaning two of them have to go before you even consider adding Martin to the 40 man.  Even if those 2 were Urshela and Sanchez, you still have to replace Sanchez' spot, which means at the end of this year the Twins are getting rid of Urshela and....who?  Probably Kepler, but that still leaves 5 quality options in the outfield, not to mention Gordon.  Maybe the Twins decide to go cheap, and get rid of Urshela, Polanco, and Kepler--you're still at 12 guys before mentioning Gordon, Steer, or anyone else the Twins decide to bring in with the money they free up there; those 3 make probably $23M next year, which is two thirds of the way to keeping Correa, or signing a top flight bat.  As such, it just makes way more sense to me to use Martin as a cornerstone of a trade to a team that thinks they can fix him for rotation or bullpen help.  If you have to bite the bullet on his reduced value, I think that makes sense right now, given that he is probably still your best trade chip, given his draft position and replaceability within the organization.

Injuries happen and the cream of the crop rises.  I think they are working on his swing to get a tad more power and it hasn't quite worked out yet.  If the average and OPS rises by the end of the year I can see a promotion to AAA especially if they settle on position, if not I am fine with him working on defense at AA.  If you are willing to debase his value that much by a mediocre 2 months I can only imagine you must think we should just drop Balazovic from the 40 man already after his bad 2 months.  Baseball is essential the long game - you can have pop ups, but ultimately previous stats are the most readily used for future performance.  Steer and the other players have had longer in the Twins system to adjust.   I am willing to wait.  Look they could trade him,  but they won't trade him for 50 cents on the dollar, they would want full value.  If you are going to trade someone you trade a Steer who is at max value.   I think I would rather see him play, or you trade a Kiriloff who is going bananas in AAA especially if you are concerned about his wrist.  We have players and will be getting to a bit of a crunch.  However he isn't at risk to the 40 man until the fall of 2023 if my math is correct, possibly 2024.   We have ample time to continue to let him play and also for spots to open up.  Outfield or utility are the likely destinations in my mind.  

6 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Spencer Steer has hit more HR in the past two weeks than Austin Martin has in his professional career.

Steer has hit as many HR this year than Martin hit his entire college career.

They are also 2 different styles of play,  Martin plays more of a speed game than Steer.  Also Steer wasn't a HR hitter until last year.  Martin could potentially take off similarly later in the year.   Martin is almost a year and half younger than Steer - and has been in the Twins Organization much less time obviously.  

13 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Spencer Steer has hit more HR in the past two weeks than Austin Martin has in his professional career.

Steer has hit as many HR this year than Martin hit his entire college career.

Correct, and they might be able to use him to get Montas or Luis Castillo for the rotation.

2 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

Here is the best way to comp him,  He is Arreaz  with what will likely be more speed and better defense.  He is not impressing at SS as he has been a bit all over the place.  I think his OBP will be between .375 and .420 in the big leagues.  Essentially he would be a top 20 OBP machine if he were to come up to the big leagues now.  No offense but that plays anywhere.  I think he would be a top level left fielder for defense or utility infielder.   If he is not impressing you offensively its because your probably focused on home runs.  As to exciting plays he is up to 20 stolen bases.   The real question is should the Twins try to continue to focus on SS defense with him, which if he does figure it out becomes a much more valuable trade chip,  or backup for Lewis or whoever is our shortstop.   If he finds a little power he is a top 20 offensive talent in the big leagues, again that is rarified air right there.  

I have to disagree.  First, I am not suggesting that they trade him for 50 cents on the dollar as Sixel suggests, I am simply suggesting that he has not shown a lot in the field or at the plate this year.  He now has almost a year's worth of at bats in the minors, and this year his BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS are all lower this year than last.  His OBP has gone down since he was in the Toronto system, and there is no way he will maintain that in the bigs as the walks will be harder to come by as he climbs the ladder.  He has 35 total extra base hits in 634 plate appearances. It is not secret that Toronto had concerns about how his game would translate to the pros, and the Twins have already announced that they are trying to get him to drive the ball more so that he can be successful in the majors.  He is not doing so as yet.  Arraez has a great on base perecentage but it is based on his ability to work counts and get hits, not simply by drawing walks.  Look at the difference in batting averages.  Finally, if you have watched his defensive performance at all this year and think he is doing well I have to disagree.  I am not sure he has a defensive home, much like Arraez.  I am not suggesting Steer is better, but I do not think the Twins would have promoted him over Martin if they thought Martin was ready.  So, personally, I think Martin has a lot to prove before we say he is another Arraez.

16 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

There is certainly a regression to the mean.  I think he is still warming up,  no different than say a Correa that is in the .700 range for the contract we are paying him.  Luis Arreaz was a low .700 OPS last year,  yet you love him this year?   You like to take singular moments in time.  How about take both age 22 season.   He has been closer to .800 OPS throughout his career.  No offense I don't take 2 months to look at a prospect and say what his likely ceiling would be.   Or say we should trade him for 50 cents on the dollar thats just foolish.   I don't care about OPS for his style of game, similar to Arreaz,  especially if you add the steals into the game.  Its not patently insane I think his OBP would be top 20 in MLB right now.  Yes currently how he is playing would not,  but his style of play over a longer time frame,  I would fully see him being a top 20 OBP.  I think the experiment at SS is messing with him personally.   Look at Arreaz 2018 stats in AA,  quite a bit paltry compared to what he currently is doing.   Yes I am projecting,  even still I am fully confident his bat plays in the MLB.  

I just...come on man, you can't objectively think this.  I get having a prospect you love, and are excited about, but a non-biased look at what Martin is doing this year is red flag to the max.  A few counterpoints

• If Martin is regressing to the mean, that's a huge problem.  His OPS is down 12%, while the league he plays in is up 5%.  in 2021, his OPS was better than all but one team.  This year it's worse than all but one team.  If Martin is actually a league average AA player at the age of 23 (repeating), that is all kinds of bad news in terms of the status of his top prospect ranking.
• Correa currently has a .751 OPS--definitely not in the .700 range.
• It's June.  There's no more slow start logic to apply anymore.  If you look at Martin's splits, he did have a better OPS in May (.711) than April (.675), but if that's warming up, he's cooling right back down with his .602 so far in June
• Arraez was inndeed at .733 last year--but as a 23 year old in MLB.  In other words, at the same age (Martin's birthday is actually about 3 weeks before Arraez on the calendar), Arraez outperformed Martin's current OPS by almost 8%, despite being in MLB compared to AA.  I did compare them both in the same age, that age being 23.  If you want to do age 22, Arraez still  outperformed Martin, and it was still Arraez in MLB and Martin in AA.  I don't know why I keep having to say this--LUIS ARRAEZ, AT THE SAME AGE, PERFORMED BETTER THAN MARTIN, AT A FAR MORE DIFFICULT LEVEL
• Austin Martin's career OPS is .757--not close to .800.  He has been above an .800 OPS once in his career, and that was an .807 in 56 games for the Jay's AA team last year
• I'm not speaking of Asutin Martin's ceiling--I'm speaking of whether or not he is a top 11 non-catcher position player for the Twins in the next 2-3 years.  Considering Buxton, Kepler, Larnach, Kiriloff, Celestino, Miranda, Lewis, and Arraez are all clearly better with cheap control or newly-signed long-term deals, he's at best 9th.  Add in Kepler, Polanco, Steer, Gordon, and Palacios, and he might be as low as 14th; is the Twins' best use of Austin Martin to have him be the third guy called up from AAA for the next 2-3 years, or trade him for rotation/bullpen help?
• You can not care about his OPS all you want, but OBP is half of that calculation, and his OBP is currently only good at AA (it's worse than what Luis Arraez had at the same age, but in the majors).  When you can't hit for power, and you increasingly can't hit for average, MLB pitchers are going to attack, and not give up walks; take away Austin Martin's walks, and what exactly does he do well at the plate?
• You state that you agree that the way Martin is playing right now he would not be an OBP machine.  You then immediately say you think he would be a top 20 OBP machine in MLB now.  You understand those can't both be true, right?  Why exactly do you think Martin's performance would get dramatically better when moving up not one, but two levels, one of which comprises the largest gap in performance in all of professional baseball.
• Luis Arraez in 2018, in his first look at AA, at the age of 21, OPS'd .710.  That is still better than what Martin is OPS'ing this year, in his second year at AA, at the age of 23.  You really think that's a comparison you want to make as to why Martin and Arraez are good comps?

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

That was my whole point, you can't be taken seriously if your opinion is they should sell at 50 cents on the dollar. Nothing more or less.

When I say 50 cents on the dollar, what I mean is the value you get for him will be much less than the value the Twins had to give up to get him last year.  Do you think the Twins could trade Austin Martin and say, Blayne Enlow for Frankie Montas right now?  Austin Martin's value is clearly lower now than it was 11 months ago--to say otherwise is to simply not be tethered in reality.  As such, if you trade him, you will have to take less value for him than you would have otherwise gotten last year--thus, 50 cents on the dollar.  Of course the Twins can hang on to him, and hope he rebounds, but if he doesn't turn it around, and now it's 2024 and he's a below average 25 year old repeating AAA, his value is even lower, and now you're either releasing him outright, or trading him for 10 cents on the dollar.

None of this is to say I don't like Martin--I hope he can turn it around.  But when it comes to MiLB players I've never seen, but have meaningful track records, I am going to lean heavily on the stats.  And the stats tell me that for whatever reason, Austin Martin looks like a career AAAA player at best right now.  Given that there is no need for him to be part of the Twins plans in the next 2-3 years, given the number of players the Twins control for the next 2-3 years, I'd rather recoup some value now, rather than risk getting almost no value for him in a year or two.  Perhaps that will look really dumb.  Perhaps it will look really smart.  Only time will tell.

1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

They are also 2 different styles of play,  Martin plays more of a speed game than Steer.  Also Steer wasn't a HR hitter until last year.  Martin could potentially take off similarly later in the year.   Martin is almost a year and half younger than Steer - and has been in the Twins Organization much less time obviously.  

I mean, to be fair, 2019 was Steer's first year with wood bats (and he still hit 4 homers to Martin's career 6).  He then didn't get to play in 2020.  So it's pretty disingenuous to say Steer wasn't a HR hitter until last year.  In 2021, Martin had an XBH every 13 AB's.  This year it's one every 18.  At this point saying Martin could take off in the power department is pure unadulterated wishcasting, and is not based in any kind of trend.

Why is being in the Twins organization a reason to explain lack of performance?  Are you saying the Twins are much better at developing hitters than the Blue Jays?  How does that make sense given that Martin was better with the Jays org than the Twins org?  If it legitimately takes almost a full year for the Twins to make changes to one of their top prospects in the minors, then either the coach should be fired, or clearly Martin is not able to understand what the coaches are getting him to do--which is it?

1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

Injuries happen and the cream of the crop rises.  I think they are working on his swing to get a tad more power and it hasn't quite worked out yet.  If the average and OPS rises by the end of the year I can see a promotion to AAA especially if they settle on position, if not I am fine with him working on defense at AA.  If you are willing to debase his value that much by a mediocre 2 months I can only imagine you must think we should just drop Balazovic from the 40 man already after his bad 2 months.  Baseball is essential the long game - you can have pop ups, but ultimately previous stats are the most readily used for future performance.  Steer and the other players have had longer in the Twins system to adjust.   I am willing to wait.  Look they could trade him,  but they won't trade him for 50 cents on the dollar, they would want full value.  If you are going to trade someone you trade a Steer who is at max value.   I think I would rather see him play, or you trade a Kiriloff who is going bananas in AAA especially if you are concerned about his wrist.  We have players and will be getting to a bit of a crunch.  However he isn't at risk to the 40 man until the fall of 2023 if my math is correct, possibly 2024.   We have ample time to continue to let him play and also for spots to open up.  Outfield or utility are the likely destinations in my mind.  

Your math is wrong--he needs to be on the 40 man next year.  If you think he's going to be an outfielder, then that means he won't have a starting role until at least 3 of Buxton, Larnach, Kiriloff, Celestino, and Kepler are gone (and that doesn't even mention Emmanuel Rodriguez, who is almost 4 years younger, and is putting up an 1,000+ OPS in a pitcher's league--granted it is two levels down, but at this pace, he'll get promoted soon, and be only a level behind, despite the massive age difference).  All 5 of the Buxton, Larnach, Kiriloff, Celestino, and Kepler group have at least 2 years of control, and other than Buxton and Kepler, cheap control.  At this point, Austin Martin is the definition of excess, and should absolutely be bait to return players ready to help this year.

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Don't sell low on Martin. That would be like trading Royce Lewis in the 2021-22 offseason. Sell high on Steer instead.

Are you sure that this is Martin's low?  What if this is actually Martin's high?  What about his current results as a 23 year old repeating AA screams breakout candidate to you?

13 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

What if this is actually Martin's high? 

Then you're not going to get much in return for him trading him now. Those are your options - trade him for a relief pitcher or keep him and see if he can tap into his talent.

16 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Then you're not going to get much in return for him trading him now. Those are your options - trade him for a relief pitcher or keep him and see if he can tap into his talent.

If indeed we're not going to get much in return for trading him right now, doesn't that pretty much prove my original point?  That Martin should be well down the Twins' list of prospects, and if you can find a team that is still somewhat optimistic about him, you should trade him in a heartbeat, even if you have to recoup significantly less value than you would have had you flipped him last July?

4 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I mean, to be fair, 2019 was Steer's first year with wood bats (and he still hit 4 homers to Martin's career 6).  He then didn't get to play in 2020.  So it's pretty disingenuous to say Steer wasn't a HR hitter until last year.  In 2021, Martin had an XBH every 13 AB's.  This year it's one every 18.  At this point saying Martin could take off in the power department is pure unadulterated wishcasting, and is not based in any kind of trend.

Why is being in the Twins organization a reason to explain lack of performance?  Are you saying the Twins are much better at developing hitters than the Blue Jays?  How does that make sense given that Martin was better with the Jays org than the Twins org?  If it legitimately takes almost a full year for the Twins to make changes to one of their top prospects in the minors, then either the coach should be fired, or clearly Martin is not able to understand what the coaches are getting him to do--which is it?

Even in college he wasn’t a home run hitter, it was all projection.  4 homers is rather small.  

4 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Are you sure that this is Martin's low?  What if this is actually Martin's high?  What about his current results as a 23 year old repeating AA screams breakout candidate to you?

Ok this all we need to know about your evaluation skills.  

15 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

If indeed we're not going to get much in return for trading him right now, doesn't that pretty much prove my original point?  That Martin should be well down the Twins' list of prospects, and if you can find a team that is still somewhat optimistic about him, you should trade him in a heartbeat, even if you have to recoup significantly less value than you would have had you flipped him last July?

Not really. I'd rather have Austin Martin in my farm system and get a middle reliever some other way. The league may be down on him but high end talent is worth taking a chance on. If he's ready to take Jorge Polanco's job in 2024 that's soon enough.

17 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Your math is wrong--he needs to be on the 40 man next year.  If you think he's going to be an outfielder, then that means he won't have a starting role until at least 3 of Buxton, Larnach, Kiriloff, Celestino, and Kepler are gone (and that doesn't even mention Emmanuel Rodriguez, who is almost 4 years younger, and is putting up an 1,000+ OPS in a pitcher's league--granted it is two levels down, but at this pace, he'll get promoted soon, and be only a level behind, despite the massive age difference).  All 5 of the Buxton, Larnach, Kiriloff, Celestino, and Kepler group have at least 2 years of control, and other than Buxton and Kepler, cheap control.  At this point, Austin Martin is the definition of excess, and should absolutely be bait to return players ready to help this year.

Below is Spencer Steer Stats.  There is no hint of a home run hitter prior to 2021.  Yes he missed 2020 where we may have started to see the progress but he got stronger,  probably changed his swing a bit and now he is a quality Power bat.  The 2018 and 2019 draft classes are the ones that are going to need to be protected this winter prior to rule 5 draft based upon their age.  So Spencer Steer will need to be put on the 40 man.   Austin Martin was drafted in 2020.  The earliest would be next winter prior to the 2024 season.  Honestly I think Martin takes off this summer and all your moaning is moot.  Has he slightly underperformed,  slightly but it hasn't drastically changed his stock.  He will still be a top 3 prospect on any Twins prospect list.  He may drop out of top 100 unless the rest of his year is outstanding.  There is no reason to be sweating bullets over his value after 2 months of play.   Let the Twins continue to work with him and we will see what the results are the rest of this year and next year.  

14 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

Even in college he wasn’t a home run hitter, it was all projection.  4 homers is rather small.  

No kidding it was projection--he was a teenager for half that time.  The point isn't that we should be shocked his power emerged in 2021 when there was a power projection on him, and we didn't seem him at all in 2020.  4 homers is small--it's also only 2 fewer than Martin has in his entire professional career, so if someone with 4 homers isn't considered to have power, why would we consider someone with even fewer homeruns as likely to develop power?

If Martin can't develop power, he will have to be Luis Arraez to have value in MLB--for his MiLB career (during all of which he was younger than Martin has been at any point in his MiLB career), Arraez was a .331 hitter with a .385 OBP.  Martin is .262 average and .396 OBP.  As mentioned before, a guy in MLB who doesn't hit for power, and can't really hit for average, is going to see his walks evaporate very quickly as pitchers stop trying to paint, and simply challenge him.

14 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

Ok this all we need to know about your evaluation skills.  

And this is all we need to know about your ability to understand statistics.  Separate the results from the player--get rid of the name, the draft position, and the fact he was the headliner in the Berrios trade;  what about Austin Martin's stat line excites you?  Would you be at all excited about a random player with a sub-.700 OPS in his second go-around at the same level?  Of course not.  So let go of what we hoped Austin Martin would be, and start to embrace the increasing reality that he very well might never be that.

1 minute ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

No kidding it was projection--he was a teenager for half that time.  The point isn't that we should be shocked his power emerged in 2021 when there was a power projection on him, and we didn't seem him at all in 2020.  4 homers is small--it's also only 2 fewer than Martin has in his entire professional career, so if someone with 4 homers isn't considered to have power, why would we consider someone with even fewer homeruns as likely to develop power?

If Martin can't develop power, he will have to be Luis Arraez to have value in MLB--for his MiLB career (during all of which he was younger than Martin has been at any point in his MiLB career), Arraez was a .331 hitter with a .385 OBP.  Martin is .262 average and .396 OBP.  As mentioned before, a guy in MLB who doesn't hit for power, and can't really hit for average, is going to see his walks evaporate very quickly as pitchers stop trying to paint, and simply challenge him.

Average is essentially meaningless for the type of players Arraez and Martin are.   Arraez may get a few more doubles, but Martin makes that up with stolen bases.  .380 OBP players are players that teams build their teams around.  I would be happy if Martin became a bit more of a slap hitter,  right now it appears he is trying to become the power hitter Steer is by having many balls caught at the warning track.  No offense but if pitchers start going after Martin he will be able to tee off.   His bat especially during college has shown that.  My guess is he ends up with 6-8 homeruns this year.  We will see.    

Just now, Cap'n Piranha said:

And this is all we need to know about your ability to understand statistics.  Separate the results from the player--get rid of the name, the draft position, and the fact he was the headliner in the Berrios trade;  what about Austin Martin's stat line excites you?  Would you be at all excited about a random player with a sub-.700 OPS in his second go-around at the same level?  Of course not.  So let go of what we hoped Austin Martin would be, and start to embrace the increasing reality that he very well might never be that.

Its his OBP -  I have always loved players like him and Arreaz.  If his OBP plummets fine,  but if he remains a 380+ OBP player that is a top 20 OBP player every year in the big leagues.  That has immense value especially as a table setter,  and if you can't understand that, I don't know what to say.  You are essentially basing your negative view point on 2 months.   Talk about a small sample size.   You need to let the season play out before you want to trade a player for 50 cents on the dollar or regulate him to a no longer useful prospect.   

1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

Below is Spencer Steer Stats.  There is no hint of a home run hitter prior to 2021.  Yes he missed 2020 where we may have started to see the progress but he got stronger,  probably changed his swing a bit and now he is a quality Power bat.  The 2018 and 2019 draft classes are the ones that are going to need to be protected this winter prior to rule 5 draft based upon their age.  So Spencer Steer will need to be put on the 40 man.   Austin Martin was drafted in 2020.  The earliest would be next winter prior to the 2024 season.  Honestly I think Martin takes off this summer and all your moaning is moot.  Has he slightly underperformed,  slightly but it hasn't drastically changed his stock.  He will still be a top 3 prospect on any Twins prospect list.  He may drop out of top 100 unless the rest of his year is outstanding.  There is no reason to be sweating bullets over his value after 2 months of play.   Let the Twins continue to work with him and we will see what the results are the rest of this year and next year.  

Year	Age	AgeDif	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB
2017	19	-1.2	Oregon	P12	NCAA		54	230	191	23	50	12	3	2	35	4	2	18	24	.262	.357	.387	.744	74	6	13	3	5
2018	20	-0.3	Oregon	P12	NCAA		53	233	189	30	52	11	1	4	37	4	3	24	31	.275	.381	.407	.788	77	3	12	2	6
2018	20	0.0	Orleans	CCBL	Smr		36	149	135	20	41	9	0	5	25	3	0	7	19	.304	.351	.482	.833	65		4	1	2	0
2019	21	0.5	Oregon	P12	NCAA		56	261	215	40	75	13	1	6	57	6	2	30	33	.349	.456	.502	.958	108	1	14	0	2
2019	21		2 Teams	2 Lgs	A-Rk	MIN	64	296	250	40	70	18	3	4	33	5	2	34	33	.280	.385	.424	.809	106	3	10	0	2	0
2019	21	-0.3	Cedar Rapids	MIDW	A	MIN	44	201	173	26	45	12	2	2	20	5	1	19	28	.260	.358	.387	.746	67	2	8	0	1	0
2019	21	0.5	Elizabethton	APPY	Rk	MIN	20	95	77	14	25	6	1	2	13	0	1	15	5	.325	.442	.507	.949	39	1	2	0	1	0
2021	23		2 Teams	2 Lgs	AA-A+	MIN	110	488	417	82	106	18	3	24	66	8	4	55	105	.254	.348	.484	.833	202	6	9	0	7	1
2021	23	-1.1	Wichita	AACN	AA	MIN	65	280	249	45	60	11	2	14	42	4	0	20	73	.241	.304	.470	.774	117	5	5	0	6	1
2021	23	0.5	Cedar Rapids	HAC	A+	MIN	45	208	168	37	46	7	1	10	24	4	4	35	32	.274	.409	.506	.915	85	1	4	0	1	0
2022	24		2 Teams	2 Lgs	AA-AAA	MIN	48	219	192	40	56	16	1	14	45	1	3	20	34	.292	.374	.604	.979	116	3	6	0	1	1
2022	24	-2.5	St. Paul	IL	AAA	MIN	13	63	55	13	14	3	0	6	15	0	0	6	11	.255	.349	.636	.986	35	2	2	0	0	1
2022	24	-0.2	Wichita	TL	AA	MIN	35	156	137	27	42	13	1	8	30	1	3	14	23	.307	.385	.591	.976	81	1	4	0	1	0

You are correct, Martin has one more non-40 man year.  I got mixed up when I saw a TC designation next year for him on Spotrac, and incorrectly assumed that meant he had to be on the 40 man--my bad.  I hope Martin takes off this summer--it would be awesome if he followed the Royce Lewis 2019 path and went to the AFL and was the best hitter there.  The problem there of course is that Royce Lewis is actually younger than Martin, and had that breakout when he had just turned 20 three months earlier, not five months before turning 24.  And given the trend we're seeing from Martin, thinking he'll improve is based on nothing other than hope.  I would bet big money that if Austin Martin finishes the year at AA with a sub .725 OPS, he will appear on no global top 100 lists next year.

There is plenty of reason to worry about Austin Martin.  Pretending there's not is just head-in-the-sand thinking.