How Soon Could Royce Lewis Call Target Field Home?

If Royce Lewis joins the Twins after the All Star break in 2019, it will have to go like this:

Tears it up the rest of the season in Ft. Myers. We're talking hits .350, with power. 

Starts 2019 in Ft. Myers, ripping baseballs to shreds, like .375 with power, plus great fielding.

Promoted to Chattanooga after first month of A ball. Continues to rip (.350 or better) and play great D. 

Called up from AA straight to the show around the All Star break. This could happen if somebody gets injured, too. If Polanco or Adrianza go down, who ya got that's better? Conceivably Lewis could even jump over Nick Gordon, who needs to pack on some muscle and improve his pitch recognition. Looks like Royce Lewis is recognizing pitches just fine. 

See you in the Bigs, kid!

Don't hold back.  It seems like MLB has shifted and younger players are coming in if they are the stars.  Normal players get lengthy progression, but Lewis looks like one of those who can be a teenage star.

If Lewis plays the rest of the season at High A like he has I could see him starting next season at AA. Playing half the season there, and if excelling, moving up to AAA for the remainder of the season - maybe getting a September call up. Then starting 2020 with the Twins as their starting SS. I think moving him any faster than that would be a disservice to his development.

He had a great game last night against the 2018 #1 pick.

Thanks a lot for this, Seth.  Really informative.

Assuming health, I see Lewis and Kirilloff both joining the Twins in September, 2019.  Both move to AA to start the year, or after a brief stay in Fort Myers.  Move up to AAA in late summer before being added to the 40-man and called up following the season.

I hope they start both Lewis and Kiriloff in AA next year.  That way if they play well they can get some time in AAA before trying MLB.  I think 2019 is a bit of a pipe dream for either player.  They would have to be really ready because they would need to use a 40 man spot and start using options.  It is not decision to take lightly but if they dominate there is an outside chance they debut.

2020 should be an exciting year.  Lewis and Kiriloff will likely debut and we should have some young pitchers in Graterol, Duran, Balazovic close to MLB.  Also Rortvedt, Javier, Badoo and Miranda should be close by 2021 with an outside chance that Severino and Celestine are ready then as well.

If the Twins deviate from those dates, it would be nice if Scott Boras wasn't his agent.

FTFY

Nice breakdown.  Convenient that there are two highly comparable comps from recent history, both of whom come from progressive(?) organizations, one of which Falvey was a part of.

Lewis--and Kiriloff--feel different than the last two highly rated prospects the Twins had.  Less hope and squinting is needed to picture these guys in the majors as young--performing--players.

Lewis--and Kiriloff--feel different than the last two highly rated prospects the Twins had.  Less hope and squinting is needed to picture these guys in the majors as young--performing--players.

So lots of hope and squinting was needed to picture 2017 Platinum Glove Winner Byron Buxton being a young performer when he put up a 944 OPS with double-digit everything in 2013.

I remember the fanfare being pretty much the same.

Sure there is excitement, but let's not get too far ahead of ourselves.

I think Lewis starts the year in AA since he has proven to have mastered A+ ball. 

98 PAs, dude.

Or, is that kind of like when Chris Parmelee mastered the MLB level in 2011?

Great article, Seth.  You put together a great comparison piece with lots of options for expectations that, I'm sure, was meant to generate some positive yet tempered excitement surrounding a top Twins prospect.

I just hope the general feeling on the board can stay positive and tempered, instead of taking a hard left into fantasyland.  Once you enter fantasyland, there seems to be no return.  Then the pitfalls start hurting feelings and crushing expectations.  The end result ends up being a season long general bashing of a once popular fantasy super hero.  See Miguel Sano.  He can't even strikeout once in a game without someone spinning it as a failure.

I too am guessing 2020 for both Lewis and Kiriloff......no surprise, but I'd move them both to AA right now. Challenge them and see what happens. It might be good for both to struggle for the firs time.....

 

If they aren't in AA this year, I guess both start in FTM next year, since the weather is better than any other option in the system. This makes it more likely they play full time the first month. Then they move to AA in May/June, and AAA at the end of the year.

HAdn't thought about that but if the FO moved them to AA this year yet then I would say the chances would be better for them to make it up to MLB in 2019.  I still ultimately think the FO will wait until 2020 though.  They will want to be sure they are ready and I think there is going to be a 40 man crunch in 2020 as well. So lots of things to think about before they let them move up to the big club.

If they do well in AAA though they may force the FO to make those moves sooner.  I'm just excited we have two players this good coming up with lots of good talent right behind them.

Why not opening day 2019?  Add Gordon, Luis Arreaz, LeMonte Wade and Rooker to that lineup too. Here are the reasons why.

1.   They would not be the first 20 or 21 year olds to play in the major leagues.  I haven't seen any evidence were the Twins minor league development makes that much of a difference. Make the commitment to these young players even if that means lots of losses, lots of errors and lots of strikeouts.  

2.  It isn't as if the team has a high quality players at the positions.  THe middle infield is wide open with the trading of Dozier.  Move Lewis to SS and Gordon to 2B, with Polanco and Arreaz the utility guys.  Replace Morrison with Rooker. Wade is the 4th OF, and Kirilloff would play all of the OF spots as well as DH.

3.  Let this new wave of current FO picks mix in with the younger guys we have on the roster now, get a manager that will be willing to work with the young guys and has the patience to do so, and let this group take their lumps for a bit.  Maybe 2019 would be a 100 loss season like 1982 or the recent ones we had.  But, my guess is starting late 2019 and into 2020 we would see the elements of growth in many of these players.  Not all of them will be successful, but learning this now means we can adjust with new prospects from the minors and then finding veteran players to fill the remaining gaps.  

Great stuff, Seth!

I'm going to guess we see Royce in June 2020 once the super-2 service time is taken care of.  

Any idea when he most likely would make an appearance in the Arizona Fall League?  After this season or after 2019?  None at all?

Lewis should debut either in June (after the likely Super 2 arbitration cutoff, like Correa and Lindor) or mid-April (after the 7th year of control is guaranteed, like Kris Bryant).

These dates are largely irrelevant for the vast majority of players, but Lewis looks elite and thus they carry some significance, especially as a position player. Yes, the service time may prove irrelevant like it has for Buxton and Sano, but you have to cover that base in advance.

The only question now is how quickly he can get through AA and AAA and stay healthy. June 2019 is probably a little too fast -- but it would be exciting! April 2020 seems like a good bet now, assuming health, with a fallback of June 2020 or April 2021 if he is slowed by an injury in the meantime.

If the Twins deviate from those dates, it would be nice if his call-up was accompanied by a contract extension, buying out his arb years and at least one FA year.

Has Scott Boras even done this type of thing before?  Buying out arb years and extending into FA?

Perhaps not.

But that just makes it more important to time the promotion, if at all possible, for maximum impact. You want him to have significant impact on 7 MLB seasons, preferably starting with a competitive one.

Correct.  At the very least you're not going to see Lewis start out with the Twins on an opening day.  He'll get the Kris Bryant treatment of a dozen days or so in the minors to make sure he doesn't get that first year of service time.  Then it's just a matter of if the Twins hold him back till June to avoid the super-2 cutoff. 

So lots of hope and squinting was needed to picture 2017 Platinum Glove Winner Byron Buxton being a young performer when he put up a 944 OPS with double-digit everything in 2013.

 

I remember the fanfare being pretty much the same.

 

Sure there is excitement, but let's not get too far ahead of ourselves.

Han Joelo, on 07 Aug 2018 - 09:00 AM, said:

Lewis--and Kiriloff--feel different than the last two highly rated prospects the Twins had.  Less hope and squinting is needed to picture these guys in the majors as young--performing--players.

You can interpret how much hoping and squinting is involved when I say "less" is needed with Lewis and Kiriloff than was needed with Sano and Buxton.  Actually, I'll just tell you.  Squinting:  we're talking microns here, maybe 50-60 or thereabouts.  Hope:  measured in "pangs,"  I'd say the difference is only a pang or two.  The point being both sets of players engender hope, which is a good thing, maybe the best thing; and if you squint to some degree, you can actually, possible make out the silhouette of a unicorn.  Anyway, just remember Admiral Poopooer Tapthebrakes from the Empire Strikes Back:

https://youtu.be/TvcYjQCJ8_o

If the Twins truly are in a rebuilding mode, they have to look at WHEN they want to be competitive...is it 2020 or 2021 or 2022. You take into consideration the logical advancement of all your current priospects. You take into considertion that they may have one-two seasons of average baseball before they start to take off. Do you do it in 2019 fer sure, when losing won't matter and the quest for a high draft choice is the main target, with players getting on-field experience.

But on the flip side, they use up service time and have the potential to become a free agent that much earlier, especially when you are dealing with guys 20-21-22 and you make them multi-millionaires with lots of prime years. Assuming that they do play well and don't just disappear into the mist of springtime.

I would like to see Royce get a September callup next season, starting his 40-man roster time perhaps a bit early. I would like to see him in spring training challenging for a job, but maybe NOT taking it untli mid-season 2020.

But then, if that was my plan, I would also be pushing Nick Gordon to get experience the remainder of this yer and to use next season as an opportunity to see if he is a longterm guy somewhere on the field.

Kriloff, Lewis, Rooker are all guys I think we can fast trak. Also Graterol would be a pitcher I would do the same.

Great offensive comparisons, Seth. How do the three young shortstops compare at arguably the most important defensive position on the field?