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    Seth Stohs

    I think we can all agree that the first guys promoted from Rochester to attempt to help the Twins bullpen early this season did not perform well in their first outings. So, who else is in Rochester? Let’s get to know the rest of the Red Wings bullpen.

    Image courtesy of Butch Dill, USA Today

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    The Twins wanted to call up Zack Littell last weekend but because the season was not yet ten days old, they were unable to. Instead, they put Chase De Jong back on the 40-man roster and Designed Tyler Austin for Assignment. At the time, the Twins needed someone available in the bullpen who could eat some innings after Jake Odorizzi didn’t get out of the first inning Friday night. De Jong was not needed after all in Philadelphia thanks to good starts by Michael Pineda and Jose Berrios. He got his first opportunity on Tuesday night against the Mets. He came in to finish the ninth inning with the Twins leading 14-4. He needed 46 pitches to finish the ninth and gave up four runs and six base runners.

    Following the game, he was returned to Rochester since he would be unable to pitch for the Twins for several days. Lefty Andrew Vasquez, the easy choice for 2018 Twins Daily Minor League Relief Pitcher of the Year, was recalled to take De Jong’s spot.

    Unlike De Jong, Vasquez was thrown right into a tough situation. With two outs in the fifth inning last night, Jake Odorizzi loaded the bases with a walk to opposing starter Noah Syndergaard. With left-handed hitting Brandon Nimmo due up, Rocco Baldelli called on the left-hander who struck out 108 batters in 69+ innings last year.

    Simply put, it did not go well for Vasquez. He couldn’t throw strikes and frankly, wasn’t close. He hit Nimmo (to put one run on the board). Then he walked both Pete Alonso and Robinson Cano to score two more runs. His fastball topped out at 87 mph and he couldn’t command the slider at all.

    I will advocate for not giving up on Andrew Vasquez, and I would assume that most of you would look at that outing as a case of nerves in his return to the big leagues. While he had struck out four batters in 1 1/3 innings in his one Red Wings appearance, he also walked two batters and gave up a hit.

    I’m not advocating that Vasquez needs to be optioned right away, though it would be understandable. But if he is, or on a higher level, if at any time the Twins need to call back to Rochester looking for some relief help, what options are there? Below you’ll find the current group of Red Wings relievers, any of who could be an option at some point this season.

    THE RELIEVERS IN ROCHESTER

    (in alphabetical order)

    AUSTIN ADAMS

    Age - 32

    MLB Experience - Parts of three seasons (2014-16) with Cleveland. 53 games, 58 2/3 innings, 6.29 ERA.

    2019 Red Wings Stats - 2 Games, 4.0 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K

    The Twins signed Adams late last year out of independent ball and he pitched briefly for Chattanooga. This year, is hitting 94-96 for the Red Wings in the early goings. Presumably, Derek Falvey is quite familiar with him due to his years in Cleveland.

    TYLER DUFFEY

    Age - 28

    MLB Experience - Parts of four seasons (2015-18) with the Twins. 111 games (37 starts), 287 innings, 5.46 ERA.

    2019 Red Wings Stats - 2 Games, 4.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K

    Duffey made such a strong impression on Twins fans late in the 2015 season, nearly catapulting a surprising team to the playoffs. He hasn’t been able to duplicate that performance since and was moved to the bullpen a few years ago. He has the curveball and spin rate that teams love.

    RYAN EADES

    Age - 27

    MLB Experience - None

    2019 Red Wings Stats - 2 G, 4.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

    Eades made a strong impression during an impressive run in big league spring training this year. He showed a big fastball which reached into the mid-90s. He also showed his array of pitches. Before this season, he had just seven games of Triple-A experience.

    PRESTON GUILMET

    Age - 31

    MLB Experience - Parts of five seasons (2013-18) with Tampa Bay, Cleveland, St. Louis, Baltimore, Toronto, Milwaukee. 27 games, 33 innings. 9.27 ERA.

    2019 Red Wings Stats - 2 G, 4.1 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 4 K.

    Guilmet has had a long career. He’s pitched for six teams in the big leagues to go with several other organizations in the minor leagues. He’s got enough stuff to keep getting opportunities.

    MIKE MORIN

    Age - 27

    MLB Experience - Parts of five seasons (2014-18) with Angels. 186 games, 174 innings, 4.66 ERA.

    2019 Red Wings Stats - 2 G, 3.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K.

    Born in Minnesota, his family soon moved to the Kansas City area, but he’s still got family in the area. It would certainly be a thrill for him to play for the Twins. Morin pitched between 47 and 60 games each year out of the Angels bullpen between 2014 and 2016. He’s been hurt the last two years, but he appears to be fully healthy again. He’s a low-90s guy with a really, really good changeup.

    JAKE REED

    Age - 26

    MLB Experience - None

    2019 Red Wings Stats - 2 G, 3.0 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 5 K

    Reed moved up to AA really quickly after being drafted by the Twins in 2014. He’s been up and down ever since, but he was remarkable for the Red Wings after June 1st last year (23 G, 37.2 IP, 1.43 ERA, .167 opponents batting average). Walks always a concern, but Reed gets a lot of movement. His fastball is 95-97, and he’s got a sharp slider too. .

    FERNANDO ROMERO

    Age - 24

    MLB Experience - Debuted with the Twins in 2018. Made 11 starts, 55 2/3 innings. 4.69 ERA.

    2019 Red Wings Stats - 2 G, 5.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 6 K

    Romero was really good for his first four MLB starts last year and then struggled the rest of the way. It was surprising that the Twins decided so quickly in spring training that he would pitch out of the bullpen. He struggled in spring training and was optioned to the Red Wings. He’s off to a fast start. In his 3 1/3 hitless, no-walk innings on Wednesday, he was getting swings and misses on 97 and 98 mph fastballs.

    Currently DJ Baxendale (27) and Zack Weiss (26) are on the Red Wings injured list.

    *Note that the 2019 Red Wings Stats are for just two games, so the sample size is definitely small.

    THE STARTERS

    Chase De Jong returns to the Red Wings starting rotation. The other starters in the Red Wings rotation are 23-year-old RHP Zack Littell, 23-year-old LHP Lewis Thorpe, 24-year-old RHP Kohl Stewart, 25-year-old RHP Sean Poppen and 27-year-old MLB veteran, LHP Justin Nicolino. LHP Stephen Gonsalves is on the IL as well and should be back in early May.

    These guys are options if and when a long-reliever might be needed. They could also be summoned to the Twins when a starter is needed, such as in a doubleheader situation.

    THE INJURED LIST

    As a reminder, right-handers Matt Magill and Addison Reed, along with LHP Gabriel Moya are on the injured list. We haven’t heard updates on them recently. They are also options to join the big league bullpen when they are ready, though a rehab stint would seem very likely for all three as they have not pitched in a long time.

    THE FREE AGENTS

    I’ll just throw this tweet from Nick Nelson here:

    https://twitter.com/NickNelsonMN/status/1116204584656154624

    So, do you have a current hierarchy of who the Twins should call up next as they have needs? How about breaking that out between whether they need a long reliever, or a lefty, or a short-term option versus a more long-term guy? Share your thoughts below.

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    Trevor May leads the league in several Statcast categories.  He has the lowest Average Exit velocity against with 76.5MPH.  He has the lowest hard hit% with 5.6% (only allowed one hit above 95MPH).  His Barrels/Plate Appearance is 0.0%.

     

     

    Between May, Rogers, Hildenberger, and Parker it is clear that we have no need for Kimbrel or any other closer candidate. Our bullpen is fine. 

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    Hildenberger optioned, Vasquez outrighted/DFA'd; Eades and Romero up.   

    In four days: Stewart's starts in Odorizzi's spot, Odorizzi to the pen, the least effective reliever with options down.

     

    I don't care if it's little league or major leagues.  If you cannot throw strikes you don't belong.

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    Lots of strange decisions.  I feel like the Romero experiment is like the Sano to the OF experiment.  Let Romero start and get him up here.  Odorizzi is now in his second year of proving he cannot go more than 4 innings.  Rookie relievers need to get settled and DeJong and Vasquez got crushed instead.  Then there is the Ehire pinch hit with Nelson Cruz on the bench.  So much to confuse this old brain.

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    From what we have seen of Perez, we might need a starter, too. Romero is my first choice for either role.

     

    I agree, you just have to roll the dice with Romero. He's off to a decent start, just give him a chance. There's a high ceiling and he honestly can't be worse than what's happened already.

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    Hildenberger optioned, Vasquez outrighted/DFA'd; Eades and Romero up.   

    In four days: Stewart's starts in Odorizzi's spot, Odorizzi to the pen, the least effective reliever with options down.

     

    I don't care if it's little league or major leagues.  If you cannot throw strikes you don't belong.

     

    Hildy just walked one guy last night, otherwise has been solid. No need to blow everything up after 10 games. We're 6-4 man.

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    This is what Odorizzi was last year. 5 innings and he's done. A number 5 starter. Gibson and Pineda have only the ability to go about 5 right now also, though due to health. Prepare for an overworked bullpen, injuries, and an exposed lack of depth.

    The majority of starts in MLB last year were five and one third..... Pitching has changed.

    Edited by Mike Sixel
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    Hildenberger optioned, Vasquez outrighted/DFA'd; Eades and Romero up.   

    In four days: Stewart's starts in Odorizzi's spot, Odorizzi to the pen, the least effective reliever with options down.

     

    I don't care if it's little league or major leagues.  If you cannot throw strikes you don't belong.

    Why would they option Hildenberger at this point in time? Or outright Vasquez? Why wouldn't you keep the guy who hasn't allowed a run yet and just send Vasquez back down while calling Romero up if that's who you'd prefer to have? 

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    The majority of starts in MLB last year were five and one third..... Pitching has changed.

     

    That's a misleading stat. Yes, pitching has changed, but that's not totally why average innings per start is what it is. For 1 the Rays really throw the number off with their "opener" usage. They averaged just 3.9 innings per start, but that misleads as their actual starters were much better than that. Cleveland averaged over 6 innings per start because they have good starters. The problem with the Twins current pitching situation is that they built it to have starters who can go 6 and then have 3 lock down guys and 1 or 2 other guys who can fill in in their bullpen with just a couple random dudes to be the long and blow out guys. But their starters haven't nearly filled their role and it's put way more pressure on the guys who weren't supposed to be used often. When Berrios starts and then you can just get into a mix of Parker, May, and Rogers things look good. But when Odo and Gibson come up way short on expectations it forces Rocco to use guys in situations they weren't meant to be used in.

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    That's a misleading stat. Yes, pitching has changed, but that's not totally why average innings per start is what it is. For 1 the Rays really throw the number off with their "opener" usage. They averaged just 3.9 innings per start, but that misleads as their actual starters were much better than that. Cleveland averaged over 6 innings per start because they have good starters. The problem with the Twins current pitching situation is that they built it to have starters who can go 6 and then have 3 lock down guys and 1 or 2 other guys who can fill in in their bullpen with just a couple random dudes to be the long and blow out guys. But their starters haven't nearly filled their role and it's put way more pressure on the guys who weren't supposed to be used often. When Berrios starts and then you can just get into a mix of Parker, May, and Rogers things look good. But when Odo and Gibson come up way short on expectations it forces Rocco to use guys in situations they weren't meant to be used in.

    Every reliever, on every team, will end up pitching important innings. You can't just use the top 3 day after day and expect them to carry the load. Even if Odo and Gibson go 7, you still need bullpen coverage on those days, and every day the Twins play. Using only the top end in every close game is unworkable.

     

    Good bullpens have multiple good arms, because all arms get used, and used in situations that matter.

     

    Demanding more from the starters is a nice thought, but that was going to be difficult to achieve for this year's Twins team. However, adding bullpen arms was simple.

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    Trevor May leads the league in several Statcast categories.  He has the lowest Average Exit velocity against with 76.5MPH.  He has the lowest hard hit% with 5.6% (only allowed one hit above 95MPH).  His Barrels/Plate Appearance is 0.0%.

     

     

    Between May, Rogers, Hildenberger, and Parker it is clear that we have no need for Kimbrel or any other closer candidate. Our bullpen is fine. 

     

    I'm with you on May. I'm a fan of Rogers and Parker has looked better from his first couple of shakey outings but the jury is still out. Hildenberger? Maybe, I'm still on the fence after last year.

     

    But even if all four of those guys are good to great, there's always room for bullpen improvement, ask the A's last year.

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    Every reliever, on every team, will end up pitching important innings. You can't just use the top 3 day after day and expect them to carry the load. Even if Odo and Gibson go 7, you still need bullpen coverage on those days, and every day the Twins play. Using only the top end in every close game is unworkable.

     

    Good bullpens have multiple good arms, because all arms get used, and used in situations that matter.

     

    Demanding more from the starters is a nice thought, but that was going to be difficult to achieve for this year's Twins team. However, adding bullpen arms was simple.

    Let's start with 90 wins as our goal. Let's say we only get 6 innings out of our starters in all 90 of those games. That means we need 270 innings worth of bullpen usage in those games. If you have 4 guys who throw all of those innings they're all throwing 67.5 innings.

     

    That's obviously a ridiculously perfect situation, but that's the plan you build for when you're a small to midmarket team because it's not sustainable to pay bullpen guys big money because they're too volatile. The argument I made in my post was you want 3 shut down type guys to lock down sure wins. Then you have 1 or 2 others are quite reliable. That's 4 or 5 guys. Yes, every guy in the pen will throw innings, but the plan is to use those 4 or 5 in the "important innings." 

     

    Good bullpens do have multiple good arms, 3-5 of them. They don't have 8 guys that they expect to use regularly in high leverage situations. They have 3-5 and then pop some of those other few in there in the 6th or 7th in stretches where the team is in a bunch of close games. But that's only a few stretches of the season. Vasquez was brutal last night, yes. But to act like the bullpen is just collapsing right now is inaccurate. Harper, Hildy, and May haven't allowed runs yet. Rogers and Parker have allowed 1. That's 2 runs in 21+ innings. That's your 4 guys you're counting on at the end of games and 1 random guy. The expectation is that Romero will come up and be a 5th end of game guy. What else do you realistically want from a bullpen? This article and thread have people acting like the season is over because some random dude the team was never counting on came in and was absolutely brutal in 1 game. But in reality the bullpen is doing it's job. It's not doing the extra stuff the starters are forcing it to try to do.

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    Trevor May leads the league in several Statcast categories. He has the lowest Average Exit velocity against with 76.5MPH. He has the lowest hard hit% with 5.6% (only allowed one hit above 95MPH). His Barrels/Plate Appearance is 0.0%.

     

     

    Between May, Rogers, Hildenberger, and Parker it is clear that we have no need for Kimbrel or any other closer candidate. Our bullpen is fine.

    4 guys isn’t enough. They can’t all pitch every night there is a lead to protect.

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    I agree on 3 of those 4, but disagree that our bullpen is fine. We need depth. The problem is that to win games we are going to have to over pitch Rogers, May and Parker. Hildenberger is a depth guy - he's frankly not that good, lets in most of the runners he inherits, but he's good enough to be the # 6 or 7 guy in a 7 man bullpen. Good enough to be in MLB, not good enough to be an important cog in a contending team's bullpen. We only have 3 of those guys. 

     

    We need 4 or 5  quality BP arms PLUS 2 or 3 depth guys. We have 3 quality arms in May, Rogers and Parker, and 1 depth guy in Hildenberger IMHO. I think Odorizzi could be a "quality" BP arm and Perez a depth/maybe quality guy. Maybe Harper or Morin finishes off the group now, with Eades, Romero and/or Littel coming in a month or two for anyone who isn't effective or the inevitable injuries.   

     

    Sooo, I would move Odo to the BP and leave Perez there, and send Vasquez down. Now we need two starters. If we're going to sign a FA, sign Kuechel on a 1 or 2 year deal (he now says he'll take that) for one guy. Bring up Stewart as the #5 starter. If no Kuechel or while he's building up arm strength, add Romero or Littel to the starting rotation. I'd vote Romero but I don't know where he is in terms of innings, etc. 

     

    To me, the better plan to make the less effective starters into relievers where they may be more effective and take our chances with young starters. That's where we have some talent, not in the bullpen. 

    Vasquez deserves more chances, hopefully we don't make a habit out of bringing in rookies with the bases loaded to face the top of the order. That was not a good choice in hindsight.  I'm not giving up on De Jong after one bad inning either.

     

    Pitching depth is a major strength for us this year.  It's not front of the rotation/back of the bullpen depth but we have good depth.  If Berrios, Pineda, and Gibson stay mostly healthy and pitch decent we have nothing to worry about. 

     

    Hildenberger should be a fine bullpen piece.  He has battled inconsistencies in his first 2 seasons but I am confident he will have a good year.

     

    No signings, no trades (until July), this is our squad.  Leave the rotation (with Perez) the way it is until an injury occurs.  Our offense will be great and our pitching will be fine (average).

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    Hi Seth;

     

    I have questions as opposed to opinions:

     

    1. You wrote: "The Twins wanted to call up Zack Littell last weekend but because the season was not yet ten days old, they were unable to." Might I ask why? Is it an IL thing?

     

    2. "Following the game, he (DeYong)was returned to Rochester since he would be unable to pitch for the Twins for several days.

    Is this because he threw 46 pitches?

     

    3. I know you are being thorough, but Adams 6.49 ERA, Duffy at 4.56, Guilmet at 9.27 doesn't instill confidence. Seth, do think any of these could actually add value to the Twins?

     

    4. I'd love to hear your opinion on Magill and / or Reed. Are they an improvement?

     

    Finally, when the populous of earth decides to make me Emperor, I'll make you head of the Twins. What would you recommend about pitching?

     

    4.

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    And a 2R single for a total of -.120 WPA.  He let 3 runs in and got one hitter out.  Not sure in what kind of universe this is "solid"...

     

    I'll agree he was not so great last night. But he's had 5 other appearances and has been perfect. So you're willing to just give up on Hildy because of one bad outing? That's just so shortsighted, man.

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    This isn't the first time Odorizzi had a lights out game but everything fell apart in an epic fashion.

     

    Most of us complained that the previous d00d didn't know when to pull pitchers ... but I think even he would have pulled people sooner than this.

     

    Baldell might be trying to be too nice. I suspect this will change after a few more games like this.

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    Reach out to Bud Norris & Jim Johnson. Both still unsigned and both have the ability to close if needed.

     

    The Nationals deal with Norris fell through because they feel he's at least a month away from contributing.

     

    I'd pass on Johnson, he can't strike anyone out.

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    1. You wrote: "The Twins wanted to call up Zack Littell last weekend but because the season was not yet ten days old, they were unable to." Might I ask why? Is it an IL thing?

     

    Players who are optioned to the minors have to spend at least 10 days there (or the first 10 days of the season, in this case) before they are eligible to return to MLB. (With the exception if someone goes on the DL/IL.)

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    Last night, we needed a fireman. We didn't have one unfortunately...

     

    Kimbrel would certainly have his bad moments, and even if he signed now, he woudln't be ready for a few weeks at best... Regardless, we needed him last night. 

     

    We should have signed him. We still could... 

    A fireman who goes to the scene then wets his pants is not the answer but it does mean his intentions were good.

    Edited by ScrapTheNickname
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    Love Rocco so far, but last night I didn't agree with how he used his bullpen. Bringing in an inexperienced guy with the bases loaded in a 1-0 game would have been my last choice. He should have been used the way de Jong was the night before, in a game that was out of reach, or at least in a situation with empty bases. Not being able to throw strikes is a sign of nerves...

     

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    Agreed. Not solid. Let's face it. Hildenberger started out hot, hitters saw him a few times, and he cooled off. Since then, he's been a decent reliever who can be a back end bullpen guy. He tends to let inherited runners score and he's not a guy we can regularly put in late inning crucial situations. He's more of a depth guy - the number 5, 6 or 7 BP guy in a 7 or 8 man bullpen. He's fine to keep (especially considering our other options) but he can't be one of the the top 4-5 guys to carry this bullpen, at least not now.

     

     

    Hildenberger has inherited 11 runners already this season. That’s almost half the total number of inherited runners for the entire team (25). Yesterday was the first time ANY of them scored. Hildenberger had a bad game, period. It happens. Just don’t make inaccurate statements that make him out to be worse than he is. He was very good with inherited runners in 2017, not so much last year. Overall, his career mark is 36% scoring. By way of comparison, Addison Reed has allowed 41% of inherited runners to score.

     

     

    Bottom line: Hildenberger is absolutely one of the key guys in the pen this year.

    Edited by yarnivek1972
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    Why would they option Hildenberger at this point in time? Or outright Vasquez? Why wouldn't you keep the guy who hasn't allowed a run yet and just send Vasquez back down while calling Romero up if that's who you'd prefer to have? 

     

    Hildenberger did allow runs last night... 3/3 inherited runners scored. They had not scored until he was on the mound. Just because it doesn't count on his ERA doesn't mean he hasn't allowed a run! He allowed 3 last night.

     

    I'm not saying to option him. Not at all. Inherited runs count, none the less.

    Edited by h2oface
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    It's April 11.  It's cold.  Pitching a baseball is not easy...especially for anyone who didn't grow up in cold weather.  Anyone wanting to get rid of any pitchers this early, doesn't know squat about pitching or cold weather or anything else that I care about.

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