Baseball is a relatively simple game. Offseasons are usually just as simple, with contending teams adding to their rosters while clubs further away build for the future. The Rays are an exception to that rule. Fresh off an American League pennant in 2020, the Rays turned around and traded their frontline starter, Blake Snell, to the Padres.
Snell then had the worst season of his career, furthering the Rays’ impeccable timing on pitchers (but maybe not Joe Ryan). Constantly churning their roster and trading away pricey players for elite prospects, the Rays embody the notion that no player is “untouchable.”
Enter Tyler Glasnow. The six-foot-8 monster from California is a must-watch when he takes the mound. Glasnow, 28, pairs a triple-digits fastball with a wipeout hook. Glasnow has struck out 36% of hitters since 2019, the third-highest rate behind Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole.
Glasnow’s name floated at the trade deadline, with Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin reporting potential possibilities.
Among 114 starters who’ve pitched at least 200 innings over the last three seasons, Glasnow ranks third in ERA (2.80), xFIP (2.78), and opponent’s average (.185), fourth in FIP (2.87), and sixth in SIERA (3.03).
For as dominant as he is on the mound, he’s not on it very often. Glasnow hasn’t thrown 100 innings in a season since 2018 when he threw 111 2/3. Injuries have riddled his career, and 2021 was no exception.
Glasnow was rocking a 2.66 ERA and 36% strikeout rate before he got hurt last June. His season ended with Tommy John surgery in August, and he’s likely to miss all of the 2022 season. A free agent after 2023, Glasnow is projected to make $5.8 million in his third year of arbitration (2022), with a raise to $8 or $9 million in year four (2023).
Trading for Glasnow would be an investment for 2023, when the Twins hope to be back in contention. Think of the first Michael Pineda contract, when he rehabbed in year one and contributed in year two. That deal went well, and there’s a “back pocket” aspect to a trade like this.
A trade makes sense if the Rays are looking to shed payroll and cash in on Glasnow before he inevitably reaches free agency. There’s no telling how many starts the Twins could expect from Glasnow in 2023, who will have thrown only 206 innings the past four seasons.
Like Byron Buxton, assessing Glasnow’s trade value is a tricky proposition. He’s an elite player with health a major question mark. MLB Trade Simulator says a Ryan Jeffers and Jhoan Duran package would satisfy both sides. If the Rays wanted quantity, Matt Canterino, Keoni Cavaco, Brent Rooker, Caleb Thielbar, and Matt Wallner match up well.
As Rosenthal eloquently wrote, Glasnow coming off Tommy John surgery is probably a better bet than any prospect the Twins would trade for him. Additionally, the inside track to an extension is compelling and offers an attractive opportunity for more value. Whether a long-term investment in Glasnow is wise is another question. Again, when healthy, he's unquestionably an ace. The Twins haven't had one of those over a decade.
Glasnow’s price in a trade would likely be less than that of Frankie Montas, Luis Castillo, or even Chris Bassitt. It’s a high-upside move that could give the Twins a weapon in 2023 and potentially beyond.
What do you think? Should the Twins make a run at Tyler Glasnow? Comment below!
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