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  • Winter Meetings: Reliever Roulette


    Nick Nelson

    The free agent relief market is finally beginning to take shape at the Winter Meetings. The Minnesota Twins, for now, are biding their time. And while they clearly have a need, early developments on this front are proving them wise to wait things out.

    Image courtesy of Peter G. Aiken, USA Today (Fernando Rodney)

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    A few popular Twins targets have come off the market this week, with Pat Neshek (Phillies), Brandon Morrow (Cubs), Bryan Shaw (Rockies) and Tommy Hunter (Phillies) all reaching agreements. And while you may be feeling bummed to miss out on some of these names – especially a hometown guy like Neshek, or a reliable stalwart like Shaw – it should be negated by these two facts:

    One, there are still plenty of options left in a deep class. And two, these particular hurlers signed at very steep rates.

    Morrow got $21 million over two years. Neshek got $16.25 million over the same term. Shaw is looking at "three years, somewhere in the range of $9 million annually."

    These are hefty prices to pay for relief pitchers, the most notoriously volatile of baseball assets. Brian Dozier will make $9 million in 2018 and is in line to be the fourth-highest paid player on the roster.

    The Twins are coming into some financial flexibility, but they still need to be thoughtful about how they're allocating payroll and committing money. While we'll all agree this bullpen could use some outside help, I don't think the Twins are well served in their current position to gamble on reliever roulette with those kinds of stakes.

    Dollars aren't the only finite resource for the Twins. There's also innings – this year and beyond. It seems safe to assume that (barring injury) Trevor Hildenberger, Ryan Pressly, Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffey will be locks for the Opening Day pen. Gabriel Moya, Alan Busenitz and JT Chargois will all have very good cases for spots, if not at the start of the year then shortly after. Tyler Jay and John Curtiss are close. And then there are whichever members of the bloated starter mix end up converting to relief roles.

    This shouldn't preclude Minnesota from signing a veteran to a guaranteed contract, but it does temper the desire to hand out an expensive multi-year deal. The early action on the free agent market seems to reflect a growing trend – relievers are gaining prominence in the game, and their salaries are rising accordingly. As such, promising MLB-ready bullpen arms like the ones listed above are becoming especially valuable commodities.

    I honestly wouldn't feel terrible going into 2018 with the group they have, plus a few low-wattage signings with upside, but the primary issue is this: The Twins presently have no closing experience. While GM Thad Levine says he's "open-minded" that his closer of the future might be on the roster, he made clear he isn't keen on throwing any of his young arms directly into the fire.

    So the Twins are pursuing someone who can at least temporarily occupy the ninth inning from the outset next season. It's not going to be Wade Davis or Greg Holland. It probably won't even be someone in the range of Morrow and Shaw.

    A trade remains possible, but the same logic applies – are you going to forfeit significant assets for a piece you're not totally positive you need? The equation changes if we're talking about a potential bullpen ace like Raisel Iglesias, but I like to think the Twins are smart enough to avoid overpaying for, say, Alex Colome's 47 saves this year.

    At the Winter Meetings, Minnesota has been connected to three different veteran right-handed relievers, and all seem fairly sensible to me:

    1) Brandon Kintzler. The familiarity factor is there, he has a strong bond with Paul Molitor, and he has proven he can handle the job. Kintzler isn't a prototypical closer, and I'd argue that he is more useful pitching earlier in games when his heavy sinker can be deployed on-demand in tough spots. But this is part of the reason he makes sense; he's a valuable bullpen piece even if someone else steps in as closer, and despite his All-Star showing this year he probably will cost less than the likes of Morrow, Shaw, and even Neshek.

    2) Fernando Rodney. He ranks third among active pitchers in saves, and performed the job well enough as closer in Arizona this year, especially in the second half: 17/18 SV, 2.55 ERA, 11.3 K/9. Rodney's age (40) and history of wildness (career 4.4 B/9) make him a bit of a risky proposition but he can probably be had on a one-year deal and that's attractive to the Twins, even at an inflated cost. Multiple reports have connected Minnesota to Rodney, so there's definitely some smoke here.

    3) Juan Nicasio. It sounds like the Twins have talked to Nicasio's agent, signaling distinct interest following a breakout year for the Dominican. Bringing mid-90s heat, he posted a 2.85 ERA and 72-to-20 K/BB over 72 innings. He doesn't have much closing experience but did finish the year in that role for the Cardinals and there's really no reason to think he wouldn't be up to the task. Given his momentum heading into free agency, Nicasio will not be cheap (Morrow money isn't unrealistic), but if the Twins believe his 2017 was legit he'd be a piece worth building around with the youngsters.

    Feel free to share your own thoughts on the veteran relief market in the comments section, as well as any updates and rumors as they arise on Wednesday.

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    I really just think they need a closer.  Whether it's a guy who has been a closer before or a guy with closer stuff that they can move into that role.  I believe the arms they have can be put together for a solid bullpen.  Hildenberger can be the 7th or 8th inning guy.  Trevor May, Tyler Jay, J.T. Chargois are all upside guys.  Duffey can be a 6th or 7th inning guy.

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    According to the TD Offseason handbook, the Twins have about $96M committed already, and their record payroll was $113M.  If the Twins sign two good bullpen arms at the rates they are currently going at (let's say $8M and $5M), then add Darvish ($25M), that puts the Twins at *ahem* $134M. 

    Wasn't the payroll record set before the latest TV deal kicked in? For the last few years, spending would have just been in the pursuit of mediocrity, so payroll has been low, but based on the increased revenue, $130M - $150M is where they ought to be over the next few years.

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    I'd like to see us maybe get McGee assuming he is not too expensive. I like the three guys above too tho.

     

    Also would anyone take a risk on Pineda? Maybe he comes back this year and could help the pen at the end of the year then next year slides in as a starter. I see an injured Smyly got 2 years $10 mil with $6 mil in incentives. I wouldn't mind a similar deal for Pineda and we sign Rodney to a 1 year deal or another guy to a 2 year deal.

     

    Ding, ding, ding -- we've got a winner. 

     

    (And deserving of off-season chicken as a result.) 

    post-3191-0-13892900-1513185382.jpg

    Edited by IndianaTwin
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    Aside from an established lockdown closer, I don't think free agency is the right place to acquire bullpen help. As others have said, relief pitchers are unpredictable. I would add to that, that there are too many other less expensive (though no more predictable) ways of trying to improve the bullpen. I think the best way to try to improve the bullpen is to turn middling or failing starters already on your roster into relievers. 

     

    You can make those middling or failing starters available for conversion to the bullpen by replacing them in free agency or via trade (hopefully with reliable, expensive, top-quality starters) or with prospects in your own system.

     

    Over the course of the first half of the season, evaluate the successes and failings of your bullpen and make trades. You can see who is having active success for teams that are sellers. 

     

    I think this is so much better than over-paying for Brandon Kintzler and his ilk in free agency. 

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    I hope they bite the bullet and go for Holland or Rosenthal vs. signing 2 or 3 low end guys. We have enough young guys to not have to do that...

     

    We might have to overspend, but if we don't get Darvish, paying a few extra million for one of these guys might be worth it. 

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    I hope they bite the bullet and go for Holland or Rosenthal vs. signing 2 or 3 low end guys. We have enough young guys to not have to do that...

     

    We might have to overspend, but if we don't get Darvish, paying a few extra million for one of these guys might be worth it. 

    FYI, Trevor Rosenthal is going to miss most or all of next season after undergoing TJ surgery at the end of August, so if they were to sign him it'd be a value play for 2019 (a la Pineda). Don't really see how that benefits them in their situation.

     

     

    Comparing a contract for a player who has bargaining power versus that of a player still under team control is not very relevant to anything.

    I only included that detail for context as to how these salaries would look compared to existing players on the roster. 

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    I never tire of reading the Twins don't need to spend on the bullpen because of all the internal options.

     

    I don't mind saving some room for the internal options (to a point at least), but I think it would be very negligent on the part of the front office to not pick up a guy (preferably two) that can consistently put a zero up in late innings. I can certainly see one bargain type guy (i.e. Kintzler type), but I think they need at least one more guy who will be someone Molitor can count on from day one... if for no other reason than to keep Molitor from wearing down guys like Hildy and Duffey.

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    FYI, Trevor Rosenthal is going to miss most or all of next season after undergoing TJ surgery at the end of August, so if they were to sign him it'd be a value play for 2019 (a la Pineda). Don't really see how that benefits them in their situation.

     

     

    I only included that detail for context as to how these salaries would look compared to existing players on the roster. 

    Sorry, forgot the other part. The Rosenthal bit was meant to go along with the Iglesias rumors. Iglesias could close this year. Rosenthal the next if we don't keep him...

     

    I just think getting him on the cheap(ish) would be a good investment, just like the Pineda signing, like you mentioned. 

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    The league's best relievers are starting to look like they're forming an NBA team. The best ones seem to be joining up on one team to form a super duo or trio.

     

    As a team that doesn't even have a solo, it's a little discouraging. Maybe the Twins DO have to make one or two of their own to attract others.

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    There's been a run on relievers, so hopefully the Twins can get something done before the market is picked clean. Looking at the MLB trade rumors list of top free agents the availability of second tier relievers is getting a bit thin. By top 50 ranking the relievers are:

     

    8. Davis

    10. Holland

    16. Reed

    18. Minor - TEX 2/$18.5M

    19. Morrow - CHC 2/$21M

    24. Nicasio - SEA 2/$?M 

    25. Shaw - COL 3/$27M

    30. McGee - COL 3/$27M

    36. Swarzak - NYM 2/$14M

    37. Cishek

    38. Kintzler

    41. Hunter - PHI 2/$18M

    43. Neshek - PHI 2/$16.3M

    44. Watson

    47. Tillman

    Honorable Mention. Smith

    Honorable Mention. Rodney

     

    EDIT: Smith to HOU, so one more off the board

    Edited by twins_89
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    On the trade front, it looks like Raisel Iglesias isn't happening. Sounds like the Reds asking price was just too high.

    I'm good with that. While he's great, I hate trading a ton of assets for a reliever.
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    Possibly, yes. It really depends on payroll. Why should us fans care that much about payroll?

    From the fans' perspective this is the issue with no salary cap.

     

    We don't have enough information to confidently say what we would do. If I knew that our payroll cap was $130M then I'd say spending $8M on a big RP upgrade would be a good use of funds, but if I was told that $110M was our internal cap, then I'd probably focus most of our remaining resources on a SP upgrade and buy a couple lottery ticket RPs. It always sounds good to say "it's not my money" but we know Falvine has a cap (maybe a softish one), we just don't know what it is.

     

    The fact that Falvine spent $2m on Pineda for this season, doesn't give us the answer, but it does give us some clues. If their soft cap was $110m, I strongly doubt that they would use $2m of their $15m left on a organizational strategic move rather than on a move designed to make a big improvement for 2018. This makes me think that they are working with a number much closer to 130 than 110.

    Edited by amjgt
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    I have heard Cishek rumors and their has been some Rodney and Kintzler talk. I think a bit part of the Twins failure to bring along young arms was in part due to the mindset of the previous regime. Look at last year. Hildenberger was successful, Rodgers turned a corner before he got potentially overused and tired. Busenitz looked ok, peripheral numbers didn't support his era, but he was better than expected (thanks Angels). Curtiss and Moya both came up late and showed flashes of what looks like major league stuff. Chagois has shown that in the past and is coming back from injury. Luke Bard had solid numbers at Rochester last year and there are other reasons to be optimistic. I wouldn't call it quits on this market though. I would hope they add a couple of veterans on shorter term contracts that are known for their mentorship and leadership (see Belisle, Matt). I think this new front office knows what they need to do and can do it. Lets speculate on numbers and contracts and let these guys do their job until they prove they have no clue what they are doing. I haven't seen that yet, so I will continue to believe in them.

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    Hopefully we get Cishek and Kintzler. I hate that the Twins always wait out the market and seem to never be agressive in the first few weeks of free agency. 

     

    This would be fine, though I'd rather get a bit better than Kintzler... nothing against the guy, but I'd prefer someone a bit younger with better peripherals. I get that Molitor would use him as the closer, which I suppose saves the better bullets for the 7th and 8th, but I'd rather just get a better reliever.

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    This is really starting to remind me of last off-season. I kept waiting for the Twins to sign a decent reliever only to watch as every moderately good option went off the board. It was a mistake then and it's looking more and more like the mistake will be repeated.

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    This is really starting to remind me of last off-season. I kept waiting for the Twins to sign a decent reliever only to watch as every moderately good option went off the board. It was a mistake then and it's looking more and more like the mistake will be repeated.

     

     

    I agree, but I think it might be worth taking a look at that list of moderately good options and see how they turned out.

     

    Thinking about the Astros plan, it seems like the Twins might be an a spot similar to when they went out and traded for Giles.  Maybe something like that is in the works.  Or maybe they just really prefer the internal options.  Dunno.  Not much left to pick over, though.

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    This is getting to be disappointing. It’s the same guarantee as Pineda received, but Pineda can’t pitch this year. You’d like to think the Twins could have beaten the offer, if they wanted.

     

    It may be that management is more confident than everyone else about its internal options. Who knows, maybe they’re right. I remember when Denny Green cut all of his veteran quarterbacks and said the inexperienced Daunte Culpepper, who had looked terrible in preseason opportunities, was going to start. Denny got ripped pretty hard, but Culpepper proved him right.

    Edited by Deduno Abides
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