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  • Will Twins Address Their Most Glaring Weakness?


    Nick Nelson

    With the trade deadline approaching and the Twins firmly in the mix, much talk has surrounded the need for bullpen upgrades, and rightfully so. Recently we looked at some potentially available relievers that could help that unit.

    However, if the Twins want to address their greatest weakness, both now and going forward, they're going to have to make a bolder and more aggressive move.

    Image courtesy of Benny Sieu, USA Today

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    After going 0-for-8 this weekend against the A's, Kurt Suzuki is hitting .227/.283/.303 for a .585 OPS that ranks 14th out of 15 MLB catchers with 250+ plate appearances. The only lower mark belongs to Mike Zunino, who at least offers some upside as a 24-year-old former top draft pick with big minor league numbers.

    There's no such hidden promise with Suzuki. He is what he is: a very competent backup catcher who has been holding onto a starting role, based on a good first half in 2014, and a lack of viable alternatives.

    That lack of alternatives is the deep issue at play here. Because while the Twins don't desperately need to replace Suzuki at this moment – he can be hidden at the bottom of the lineup and mostly holds his own defensively – it's a clear spot where they need to get better going forward. And unlike shortstop, where Danny Santana's struggles are rendered less perturbing by the presence of names like Jorge Polanco and Nick Gordon in the system, the cupboard here is bare. The organization's depth at catcher is dreadfully thin.

    The Twins have tried Chris Herrmann and Eric Fryer as backups for Suzuki this year. Both are fringe major-league talents. Josmil Pinto, who was a hopeful successor behind the plate, lacks strong receiving skills and now has been battling concussion symptoms for most of the season, so he's basically out of the mix.

    Looking deeper into the system, you won't find much. Stuart Turner, who at No. 17 was the only backstop to rank among our Top 20 Twins prospects before the season, has a .577 OPS at Double-A. Mitch Garver, who showed some good signs in Cedar Rapids last year, has stalled out at Ft. Myers.

    The Twins need a long-term answer at the position and they're not going to find it from within, at least not for several years, so trading for a quality young catcher with some team control makes an awful lot of sense. It is something that could be addressed during the offseason, but pulling off a deal now would have the obvious added bonus of boosting their chances down the stretch this year.

    The problem is that acquiring such a player is a pricy proposition, particularly under the seller-friendly circumstances of the trade deadline. Young catchers with two-way skills are highly valued, with good reason. They are hard to find and they are major assets.

    Still, here are three players that I would target:

    Jonathan Lucroy - Brewers

    He's very appealing, for many reasons. He's under 30. He's a very good hitter who can be slotted into the middle of the lineup when healthy. He is considered strong defensively and is rated very highly by pitch-framing metrics. And best of all, he is under team control for 2016 and 2017 for less than $10 million – a tremendous value.

    Of course, for all those reasons and especially the latter, the Brewers will be very reluctant to trade Lucroy even though they're hopelessly out of contention. If he could be pried away for any prospect package that doesn't include Buxton, Sano or Berrios, Terry Ryan would have to pull the trigger. However, I'm doubtful that Milwaukee will be amenable, especially since they lack an MLB-ready replacement for Lucroy.

    Derek Norris - Padres

    Like Lucroy, Norris is a fairly young catcher with some offensive chops who could stick around for a while. Just 26, he is not eligible for free agency until 2018. San Diego might be a little more open to dealing, however, since they have a potential successor in place. Austin Hedges is one of their top prospects and is already up in the majors backing up Norris. Would a package built around, say, Oswaldo Arcia and Alex Meyer do the trick?

    Andrew Susac - Giants

    Here's a sneaky option. Susac is presently Buster Posey's backup in San Francisco, but many believe he has the stuff to start. A former second-round draft pick, he was rated as a Top 100 prospect prior to this year by both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus, has smashed Double-A and Triple-A pitching, and has an impressive .752 OPS in 218 big-league plate appearances.

    The Giants might have their own plans for Susac – no one expects Posey to stay at catcher forever – but if they were blown away by an offer they'd have to consider it.

    None of these three players would be easy to land. It would surely mean parting with multiple high-end young talents, and that's a tough pill for a rebuilding team to swallow. But if the Twins want to make the leap to the next level, sooner or later they'll need to address their situation behind the plate.

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    I think you take that chance with Buxton.  Look - the reality is, we're going to have to take a serious risk in order to fix the position.

     

    Unless anyone is crazy enough to think we roll out the Brinks trucks to Wieters' house this offseason?  Anything other than that is going to require some risk.  I think Hicks for Norris is one of the least risky paths we could take.  (It allows us to keep Plouffe or use him for another purpose for instance)

     

    All it requires is a leap of faith in Buxton.

    Who has more trade value at the moment, Hicks or Buxton?

     

    If its Buxton, I'd seriously consider trading him for a C. Hicks is definitely the better player here and now, and quite possibly in the future too. At the very least, Buxton is not ready for the show while Hicks appears to have turned that corner.

     

    edit: although if I were GM, I'd be looking for a SS before a C. I think you can scrounge up cheap value with a defensive C on the FA market still (framing, etc). Not to mention the injury risk with that position would make me leary of investing too much in it.

    Edited by Willihammer
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    They should just Joe Mauer back at catcher and platoon him with Suzuki. Instant upgrade behind the plate and frees up 1st for either Sano or Ploufe.

    This has been debated in other threads and the overwhelming consensus is that the risk to Mauer's long-term health is unacceptable.  Whether or not you agree, let's not resurrect that debate here.

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    I don't know what the Twins are going to do at catcher. Stuart Turner hasn't hit enough to be much more than a backup. Mitch Garver's stats look unimpressive, but he got off to an awful start. He may be our best internal bet right now. That would still be a couple year wait.

    Turner is again coming on in the second half of the season, as he did last year at Fort Myers. He's hit .295 in July and .286 in the last 30 days. I don't know if he'll ever be more than a backup, but from what I've seen myself and reports I've read, he is a fine defensive catcher. I wonder if he can get off to a good start that it might flip the switch for his offense.

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    Who has more trade value at the moment, Hicks or Buxton?

     

    If its Buxton, I'd seriously consider trading him for a C. Hicks is definitely the better player here and now, and quite possibly in the future too. At the very least, Buxton is not ready for the show while Hicks appears to have turned that corner.

     

    edit: although if I were GM, I'd be looking for a SS before a C. I think you can scrounge up cheap value with a defensive C on the FA market still (framing, etc). Not to mention the injury risk with that position would make me leary of investing too much in it.

    I don't know, they are good questions to ponder. But I think our contending wagon is partially hitched to Buxton so I think it's going to be really tough to deal him. I also think he starts 2016 in CF, which means we should look to deal Hicks or Arcia for other needs soon.

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    Who has more trade value at the moment, Hicks or Buxton?

     

    If its Buxton, I'd seriously consider trading him for a C. Hicks is definitely the better player here and now, and quite possibly in the future too. At the very least, Buxton is not ready for the show while Hicks appears to have turned that corner.

     

    edit: although if I were GM, I'd be looking for a SS before a C. I think you can scrounge up cheap value with a defensive C on the FA market still (framing, etc). Not to mention the injury risk with that position would make me leary of investing too much in it.

    I'm trying to find the most diplomatic way possible to say that this is an astoundingly bad idea. Buxton is 21 years old. Can you name another 21-year-old who has a bigger upside? I can't think of any. I wouldn't even think about trading Buxton for anyone unless I also had Mike Trout on my team, and even then I'd have a hard time doing it. If Buxton gets traded for a catcher he'd have to be better than Johnny Bench.

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    When the guy just barely turned 24, yes, it's pretty good.

     

    Given his age that is OK.  You have to factor in a corner outfielder is expected to hit better than average and the fact that his defense is well below average.

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    Someone help me.  What is the heck is the problem with "forcing" Mauer to finish his career at catcher?  Injuries, prolonging his career?  $23M a year?  I say put him to good use.  First base can go to Vargas, put Plouffe at first and Sano at third.  This team needs offense and our best catcher is plugging up first base.

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    I'm trying to find the most diplomatic way possible to say that this is an astoundingly bad idea. Buxton is 21 years old. Can you name another 21-year-old who has a bigger upside? I can't think of any. I wouldn't even think about trading Buxton for anyone unless I also had Mike Trout on my team, and even then I'd have a hard time doing it. If Buxton gets traded for a catcher he'd have to be better than Johnny Bench.

     

    I completely agree with you.  You don't trade the #1 prospect in the game who is 21 because you have a current need on your team.  Buxton for Lucroy, Susac?  You are talking about a 2 year rental for a 30 year old who then will demand a huge contract (Lucroy) or Susac, who was in the 90th overall range last year.  Those would be the guys theoretically available.

     

    And of course Buxton has more trade value than HIcks.

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    Someone help me.  What is the heck is the problem with "forcing" Mauer to finish his career at catcher?  Injuries, prolonging his career?  $23M a year?  I say put him to good use.  First base can go to Vargas, put Plouffe at first and Sano at third.  This team needs offense and our best catcher is plugging up first base.

    Mauer suffered a serious brain injury. We've had this discussion many times and it's a sore subject with many posters. If you wish to discuss it, feel free to find one of the Mauer threads and continue the discussion there but expect polarized responses if you decide to go down that road.

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    Given his age that is OK.  You have to factor in a corner outfielder is expected to hit better than average and the fact that his defense is well below average.

    Absolutely, I'm not saying it's great or anything but he has yet to get into a rhythm and all of his plate appearances came as a 21-23 year old (he went down with injury a few days before his 24th birthday).

     

    He might be an oft-injured player and maybe he'll never get into a rhythm but Arcia has loads of talent. He's probably the best pure hitter to come through the Twins system in the past 2-3 years, non Buxton/Sano edition.

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    I'm trying to find the most diplomatic way possible to say that this is an astoundingly bad idea. Buxton is 21 years old. Can you name another 21-year-old who has a bigger upside? I can't think of any. I wouldn't even think about trading Buxton for anyone unless I also had Mike Trout on my team, and even then I'd have a hard time doing it. If Buxton gets traded for a catcher he'd have to be better than Johnny Bench.

    Well I wouldn't give him away but there are two center fielders on this roster. One who is ready to go and one who pretty clearly isn't. People are talking about trading the first one, but if the 2nd one is a better trade chip, why not trade that guy? Because you risk forgoing an incremental improvement at CF? There is probably more room for improvement at C or SS. If the trade is fair, that would help the team the most.

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    Mauer suffered a serious brain injury. We've had this discussion many times and it's a sore subject with many posters. If you wish to discuss it, feel free to find one of the Mauer threads and continue the discussion there but expect polarized responses if you decide to go down that road.

     

    Yup.  I would say that everyone agrees moving Mauer to catcher and effectively swapping Suzuki for Arcia in the lineup would be a short term boost.  There is no disagreement about this.

     

    But a vast majority of people also understand that it is never happening because of that whole brain thing and it is really hard to fault that line of thinking.

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    Well I wouldn't give him away but there are two center fielders on this roster. One who is ready to go and one who pretty clearly isn't. People are talking about trading the first one, but if the 2nd one is a better trade chip, why not trade that guy? Because you risk forgoing an incremental improvement at CF? There is probably more room for improvement at C or SS. If the trade is fair, that would help the team the most.

     

    Let's take a step back.  We gave up on Gomez, then traded Span and Revere and gave CF to HIcks.  It has been a really disastrous expiriment.  Now Hicks has a .706 OPS in 120 AB's, it is a little premature to clear the way for him again, let alone trade a guy with 100 times more upside.

     

    I also don't think the too many CF's is an issue.  If Rosario and Hicks profile as .720 OPS type hitters they would be excellent in the corners.  Balls will not drop in the OF with those two and Buxton.

     

     

     

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    Let's take a step back.  We gave up on Gomez, then traded Span and Revere and gave CF to HIcks.  It has been a really disastrous expiriment.  Now Hicks has a .706 OPS in 120 AB's, it is a little premature to clear the way for him again, let alone trade a guy with 100 times more upside.

     

    I also don't think the too many CF's is an issue.  If Rosario and Hicks profile as .720 OPS type hitters they would be excellent in the corners.  Balls will not drop in the OF with those two and Buxton.

    I'd be more open to that idea if there were a C in the pipeline who looked promising. But I'm thinking about marginal gains and putting 2 CFers in the OF seems like a luxury that this team can't afford given their SS and C situations.

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    I'm trying to find the most diplomatic way possible to say that this is an astoundingly bad idea. Buxton is 21 years old. Can you name another 21-year-old who has a bigger upside? I can't think of any. I wouldn't even think about trading Buxton for anyone unless I also had Mike Trout on my team, and even then I'd have a hard time doing it. If Buxton gets traded for a catcher he'd have to be better than Johnny Bench.

     

    Not to get off topic, but yes, I can name several 21 year olds with bigger upside.....

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    Someone help me.  What is the heck is the problem with "forcing" Mauer to finish his career at catcher?  Injuries, prolonging his career?  $23M a year?  I say put him to good use.  First base can go to Vargas, put Plouffe at first and Sano at third.  This team needs offense and our best catcher is plugging up first base.

    His beard would get caught in the catcher's mask, so it's a no go. Sorry.

     

    What's the latest on Pinto? Any chance he's healthy this season?

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    Oy. Trading Buxton for a catcher is a fool's game. You're trading a top centerfielder who can play 160 games for a guy who can play maybe 120.

     

    Catchers are valuable because of positional scarcity but they suffer the same problem found in trading for starting pitching... Their ability to impact the season is somewhat limited due to the fact they spend a limited amount of time on the field.

     

    Nevermind that I don't know if there's a single catcher in MLB or MiLB that I feel is a worthy trade for Buxton. Obviously, there's Posey but that's not going to happen so there you go.

     

    Buxton is one of those guys who profiles to be good at literally everything he does. He might not be a generational talent but he's not far from it, either.

     

    You don't trade that guy. You just don't.

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    Not to get off topic, but yes, I can name several 21 year olds with bigger upside.....

    Who? I'm curious because Buxton is the complete package. His upside is Mike Trout. Now there's about a 99% chance that he won't be Mike Trout because that's an absurd expectation for any player but Buxton has that upside.

     

    And if your upside the best baseball player I've ever seen play the game, that makes it *really hard* to say there are a bunch of guys with more upside.

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    Carlos Corriea for one. All that bragging on this site about Buxton over him looks silly so far, just as it looked silly last year, and earlier this year.

     

    Possibles:

    Lindor

    Seager

    Gallo

    Giolito

     

    guys I thought were 21, but are now 22:

    Harper

    Machado

    Betts

     

    Look, Buxton is one of the best players under 22 out there......but it's not hard to find names that are close to him in potential.

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    Oy. Trading Buxton for a catcher is a fool's game. You're trading a top centerfielder who can play 160 games for a guy who can play maybe 120.

     

    Catchers are valuable because of positional scarcity but they suffer the same problem found in trading for starting pitching... Their ability to impact the season is somewhat limited due to the fact they spend a limited amount of time on the field.

     

    Nevermind that I don't know if there's a single catcher in MLB or MiLB that I feel is a worthy trade for Buxton. Obviously, there's Posey but that's not going to happen so there you go.

     

    Buxton is one of those guys who profiles to be good at literally everything he does. He might not be a generational talent but he's not far from it, either.

     

    You don't trade that guy. You just don't.

    So you would trade a starting P for a C then?

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    Carlos Corriea for one. All that bragging on this site about Buxton over him looks silly so far, just as it looked silly last year, and earlier this year.

     

    Possibles:

    Lindor

    Seager

    Gallo

    Giolito

     

    guys I thought were 21, but are now 22:

    Harper

    Machado

    Betts

     

    Look, Buxton is one of the best players under 22 out there......but it's not hard to find names that are close to him in potential.

     

    I will give you Correa.  I am guessing the initial comment was specific to prospects.  But when you factor in control, Harper would be a rental at this point.

     

    No way I trade Buxton for Betts, $100M Seager, or Lindor.

     

    I also don't get the people that talked up Buxton that now look silly.  He entered the year the #1 prospect.  After almost a year off he had an OPS of .840 in AA.  116 total bases in 59 games and he swiped 20 bags.  I think you are putting a little too much stock in 11 big league games.

    Edited by tobi0040
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    So you would trade a starting P for a C then?

     

    Pitchers only play 20% of the games, but they have a much bigger impact when they do.  A hitter hits 1/9 of the time.  A pitcher is 50% of every play.

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    It wasn't the talking him up, it was the really braggy way people were SO SURE he was better than Correia and the Astros were IDIOTS for passing on Buxton. That attitude was (is?) all over this site the last year.

     

    this wasn't about "control" or "cost"....it was about how good a player he is compared to others. I didn't even look at guys drafted in the last 2 years, so there may be more.

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    I'm in not hurry to trade pitching but that's what it will probably take to get a decent catcher. It takes talent to get talent.

     

    Right, either they continue to go well below talent level at catcher, or they have to deal real talent to get it (I don't see a FA catcher they would sign next year).

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    I'm in not hurry to trade pitching but that's what it will probably take to get a decent catcher. It takes talent to get talent.

    You don't have to convince me, I'm the one who suggested trading Buxton. Which SP(s) would you trade?

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    Let's take a step back.  When the Twins recognized a need to find a regular Catcher, what did they do?  When the Twins wore out the refrain of "Starting Pitching is the #1 problem", what did they do?  Answer to both:  they went to the free-agent market with checkbook in hand and bought players to address said problems.  So, when it is time to get another Catcher--they open the checkbook and address the problem.  Recall that promise that was made concerning why the Twins "needed" a new stadium?  Having the money to solve problems was the #2 reason cited (behind keeping the "fan favorites").  So, I suggest they just spend the money and keep what "good" players they already have rather than trading.

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