Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account
  • Will Twins Address Their Most Glaring Weakness?


    Nick Nelson

    With the trade deadline approaching and the Twins firmly in the mix, much talk has surrounded the need for bullpen upgrades, and rightfully so. Recently we looked at some potentially available relievers that could help that unit.

    However, if the Twins want to address their greatest weakness, both now and going forward, they're going to have to make a bolder and more aggressive move.

    Image courtesy of Benny Sieu, USA Today

    Twins Video

    After going 0-for-8 this weekend against the A's, Kurt Suzuki is hitting .227/.283/.303 for a .585 OPS that ranks 14th out of 15 MLB catchers with 250+ plate appearances. The only lower mark belongs to Mike Zunino, who at least offers some upside as a 24-year-old former top draft pick with big minor league numbers.

    There's no such hidden promise with Suzuki. He is what he is: a very competent backup catcher who has been holding onto a starting role, based on a good first half in 2014, and a lack of viable alternatives.

    That lack of alternatives is the deep issue at play here. Because while the Twins don't desperately need to replace Suzuki at this moment – he can be hidden at the bottom of the lineup and mostly holds his own defensively – it's a clear spot where they need to get better going forward. And unlike shortstop, where Danny Santana's struggles are rendered less perturbing by the presence of names like Jorge Polanco and Nick Gordon in the system, the cupboard here is bare. The organization's depth at catcher is dreadfully thin.

    The Twins have tried Chris Herrmann and Eric Fryer as backups for Suzuki this year. Both are fringe major-league talents. Josmil Pinto, who was a hopeful successor behind the plate, lacks strong receiving skills and now has been battling concussion symptoms for most of the season, so he's basically out of the mix.

    Looking deeper into the system, you won't find much. Stuart Turner, who at No. 17 was the only backstop to rank among our Top 20 Twins prospects before the season, has a .577 OPS at Double-A. Mitch Garver, who showed some good signs in Cedar Rapids last year, has stalled out at Ft. Myers.

    The Twins need a long-term answer at the position and they're not going to find it from within, at least not for several years, so trading for a quality young catcher with some team control makes an awful lot of sense. It is something that could be addressed during the offseason, but pulling off a deal now would have the obvious added bonus of boosting their chances down the stretch this year.

    The problem is that acquiring such a player is a pricy proposition, particularly under the seller-friendly circumstances of the trade deadline. Young catchers with two-way skills are highly valued, with good reason. They are hard to find and they are major assets.

    Still, here are three players that I would target:

    Jonathan Lucroy - Brewers

    He's very appealing, for many reasons. He's under 30. He's a very good hitter who can be slotted into the middle of the lineup when healthy. He is considered strong defensively and is rated very highly by pitch-framing metrics. And best of all, he is under team control for 2016 and 2017 for less than $10 million – a tremendous value.

    Of course, for all those reasons and especially the latter, the Brewers will be very reluctant to trade Lucroy even though they're hopelessly out of contention. If he could be pried away for any prospect package that doesn't include Buxton, Sano or Berrios, Terry Ryan would have to pull the trigger. However, I'm doubtful that Milwaukee will be amenable, especially since they lack an MLB-ready replacement for Lucroy.

    Derek Norris - Padres

    Like Lucroy, Norris is a fairly young catcher with some offensive chops who could stick around for a while. Just 26, he is not eligible for free agency until 2018. San Diego might be a little more open to dealing, however, since they have a potential successor in place. Austin Hedges is one of their top prospects and is already up in the majors backing up Norris. Would a package built around, say, Oswaldo Arcia and Alex Meyer do the trick?

    Andrew Susac - Giants

    Here's a sneaky option. Susac is presently Buster Posey's backup in San Francisco, but many believe he has the stuff to start. A former second-round draft pick, he was rated as a Top 100 prospect prior to this year by both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus, has smashed Double-A and Triple-A pitching, and has an impressive .752 OPS in 218 big-league plate appearances.

    The Giants might have their own plans for Susac – no one expects Posey to stay at catcher forever – but if they were blown away by an offer they'd have to consider it.

    None of these three players would be easy to land. It would surely mean parting with multiple high-end young talents, and that's a tough pill for a rebuilding team to swallow. But if the Twins want to make the leap to the next level, sooner or later they'll need to address their situation behind the plate.

    MORE FROM TWINS DAILY
    — Latest Twins coverage from our writers
    — Recent Twins discussion in our forums
    — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
    — Become a Twins Daily Caretaker

     Share


    User Feedback

    Recommended Comments



    Featured Comments

    Nick nailed it, we have a backup playing every day.  I see a guy that doesn't hit very well.  Has no power.  Doesn't throw out runners particularly well, doesn't seem to block balls very well (like two games ago in the 9th inning), and the stats say he doesn't fram very well.

     

    But I also agree that the Twins don't view this as a weakness.  I would actually be surprised if we gave up anything significant for a catcher.

     

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    The season won't be won or lost at C, nor will it be at SS. It will be won or lost on the bump. Plenty of time to acquire a proven 8th inning guy.

     

    I think upgrading the catcher role is the biggest move we can make.

     

    Suzuki has played in 78% of the games.  Hitting .227, on base 28%, OPS of .585.  IMO those numbers are far worse than Boyer's 2.66 ERA or even Fein's 4.30. 

     

    And as much as we have used a 30 year old catcher this year, his numbers are likley to decline as the year goes on.

     

     

    Edited by tobi0040
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    The season won't be won or lost at C, nor will it be at SS. It will be won or lost on the bump. Plenty of time to acquire a proven 8th inning guy.

    This is about more than this season, though. This is a major long-term need for the club. They will have potential internal answers in the bullpen and at SS down the line, maybe even later this year. Nothing at catcher. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Paulino might well become Eric Fryer if Suzuki ever gets injured.  Which brings up the whole catching thing in another light:  Didn't the Twins think it important to have a backup plan at the backstop?  Catchers do get hurt, tough as they are.  That's why the veteran, grisled catcher is worth so much, even in the minor leagues.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    OK. Do you have an alternative package that might get it done? It may take different players but I'm not sure it takes a whole lot more, given the bar that has recently been set for Norris' trade value and his lack of production this year. 

     

    I don't have a whole package, but it starts with one of Hicks, Berrios or May.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    Nick nailed it, we have a backup playing every day.  I see a guy that doesn't hit very well.  Has no power.  Doesn't throw out runners particularly well, doesn't seem to block balls very well (like two games ago in the 9th inning), and the stats say he doesn't fram very well.

     

    But I also agree that the Twins don't view this as a weakness.  I would actually be surprised if we gave up anything significant for a catcher.

     

    I think people on this board are really good at diagnosing problems, while the solutions leave a little to be desired (which probable explain why they remain problems).

     

    Unrealistic trades and extremely optimistic projections for minor leaguers play much better in theory than the actual mlb.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    No one in the system is going to be better than Chris Herrmann or Eric Fryer right now. Pinto was the bright spot. People got hot about Turner and Stuart. The "Best Player Available" crowd always wankers on about its virtue, but not all players are created equal so there is obviously a small correction to be made to that stupid philosophy. I would only draft catchers, shortstops, center fielders, and maybe just super sluggers/speedsters at other positions. Then only starting pitchers in high schools, right-handed and left-hand starters in college, and left-handed relievers in college. I am an idiot relatively speaking here, but even I understand this.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    I still think Hicks for Norris is the beginning framework of a deal.

     

    I also think Plouffe should be shopped. I get the hesitation, but with his age and approaching FA decision, I think the possibility of swapping him for a SS or C is prudent.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

     I would only draft catchers, shortstops, center fielders, and maybe just super sluggers/speedsters at other positions. Then only starting pitchers in high schools, right-handed and left-hand starters in college,

    That's pretty much what  the Twins are most other teams do , the reality is it's really really hard to stick at CF, SS or C when moving up the org ranks.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

     

    I still think Hicks for Norris is the beginning framework of a deal.

    I also think Plouffe should be shopped. I get the hesitation, but with his age and approaching FA decision, I think the possibility of swapping him for a SS or C is prudent.

    Neither of those things should happen until the off season though, agreed? Or if the Twins suddenly lose the next 8 games or something.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Neither of those things should happen until the off season though, agreed? Or if the Twins suddenly lose the next 8 games or something.

    Plouffe for sure is an offseason move. I'd consider Hicks for Norris now.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    I think the best move for both teams in the short run would be a Plouffe for Susac trade.   I view Plouffe as a top 10 3B in this league.  But he is 29 and a FA in two more seasons.

     

    Hard to argue Susac is not a top 10 catcher.  .752 OPS so far, crushed AA and AAA.  Controlled thru 2020.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    Arcia was looking like a potential non-tender candidate after 2016 even before his AAA banishment.

    Boy, I don't see that at all. Arcia isn't Chris Parmelee or another prospect with questionable upside and repeated struggles. The guy can hit and has done so at every level of baseball. His defense is suspect but he's a valid DH candidate even if he can't play the field.

     

    Oswaldo is 24 years old with a career .807 OPS against righties. Under no circumstances do you let that guy go for nothing.

     

    Fun fact: Oswaldo Arcia has a higher career OPS+ than Trevor Plouffe.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    Boy, I don't see that at all. Arcia isn't Chris Parmelee or another prospect with questionable upside and repeated struggles. The guy can hit and has done so at every level of baseball. His defense is suspect but he's a valid DH candidate even if he can't play the field.

     

    Oswaldo is 24 years old with a career .807 OPS against righties. Under no circumstances do you let that guy go for nothing.

     

    Fun fact: Oswaldo Arcia has a higher career OPS+ than Trevor Plouffe.

    Did you miss the "after 2016" part?  Obviously we don't cut Arcia now, but if he's still a ~100 OPS+ bad defense corner OF a year and a half from now, we might not have a lot of options.  And given that he is languishing in AAA right now, he might have some work to do just to get back to being a ~100 OPS+ MLB player again.

     

    And if Plouffe was a corner outfielder who played bad defense, he would have been a non-tender candidate after 2013 too (when his service time was roughly equivalent to Arcia's projected service time after 2016).

     

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    While I like the idea of Hicks or Plouffe as the basis for getting a Susac, I am not going to do that deal until the off season.  As long as we are in contention, you can't make that fundamental of a change to the lineup.  After the season, its my top priority.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    While I like the idea of Hicks or Plouffe as the basis for getting a Susac, I am not going to do that deal until the off season.  As long as we are in contention, you can't make that fundamental of a change to the lineup.  After the season, its my top priority.

     

    Agree. And it is highly unlikely the Giants would trade Susac (or Brewers trade Lucroy or Padres trade Norris) in the middle of the season. Good bats at premium positions with multiple years of control just don't move at the deadline.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    It's odd for me to see so many people down on Arcia. He's had a tough season, and the defensive issues are problematic, but few players in the entire league have had as much offensive success at such a young age. These "bust" comments are going to look silly in a few years.

    I am not definitively calling him a bust, but he's clearly headed further down that path in 2015.  This was supposed to be his breakout year and he's basically fighting to get back to the big leagues.

     

    He's still young, but few players in the league have sustained much success with a 31% K rate and a 7% BB rate, even with a .200 ISO.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    Agree. And it is highly unlikely the Giants would trade Susac (or Brewers trade Lucroy or Padres trade Norris) in the middle of the season. Good bats at premium positions with multiple years of control just don't move at the deadline.

    Plus, while I've been impressed by what Sano has done so far, it doesn't mean that he still may not be ready.  Vargas had one hell of a first month in the bigs.  Letting the rest of the season play out gives all the information the Twins would likely need for this type of decision.  Same logic applies to Hicks / Buxton.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

     

    I am not definitively calling him a bust, but he's clearly headed further down that path in 2015.  This was supposed to be his breakout year and he's basically fighting to get back to the big leagues.

     

    He's still young, but few players in the league have sustained much success with a 31% K rate and a 7% BB rate, even with a .200 ISO.

    This.  I don't give up on him and I don't trade him because of the possibility of all that left handed power.  Having said that, the possibility seems less plausible now than last year and that is definitely concerning. 

    Edited by Linus
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    It's odd for me to see so many people down on Arcia. He's had a tough season, and the defensive issues are problematic, but few players in the entire league have had as much offensive success at such a young age. These "bust" comments are going to look silly in a few years.

    Maybe so.  Doubtful, IMO, but maybe so.  

     

    But that's not directly related to "What's his worth in a trade to other teams."  

     

    He HAS had a tough season, and it hasn't even been in the big leagues.  And he's not THAT young.  He might be a big side of a platoon, which knocks his value down, and he's probably not going to become a much better OFer, further knocking his value down.

     

    In any case, he's definately not part of "too expensive" when talking about getting back a catcher that you hope fills the position well for a number of years.

     

    Same for Meyer.  I know many prospect fans don't want to hear it, but the luster is off Meyer, at least in terms of what he's "worth."  At this point, he's just another struggling big arm, trying to find success at AAA (and not finding much of it, BTW) for more than a season. History of arm problems.  Most teams have similar players.  And most of those guys end up not becoming good big league players.  

     

     

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    I think the best move for both teams in the short run would be a Plouffe for Susac trade.   I view Plouffe as a top 10 3B in this league.  But he is 29 and a FA in two more seasons.

    That's not a good move for the Giants at all.  It means zero starts for Matt Duffy (126 OPS+), starts for Hector Sanchez (51 OPS+ the past two years), and more starts for mediocre outfielders (who can currently be benched for 129 OPS+ Brandon Belt, with Posey starting often at 1B).  Not to mention increased wear and injury risk for Posey, and zero insurance in case of Posey injury, until they can draft and develop or acquire another decent catching option.

     

    All to get Plouffe (110 OPS+) into their lineup for the next 2.5 years for ~$16 mil?  Plouffe's a fine player, but that move is unnecessary at best.

     

    Frankly, they are doing what the Twins should have done with Ramos in 2010...

    Edited by spycake
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    To the poster above who mentioned Sano might not be ready comparing him to Vargas is wrong.

     

    Vargas was red hot but he didn't take walks. The writing was on the wall...as for Sano he shows proper plate discipline.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    It's odd for me to see so many people down on Arcia. He's had a tough season, and the defensive issues are problematic, but few players in the entire league have had as much offensive success at such a young age. These "bust" comments are going to look silly in a few years.

    A few years?  Everybody is supposed to wait (a few years) for Arcia to develop into this slugger?  Let me list:

     

    1. The fans (and the owner) were tired of losing (waiting for the "prospects" to develop) so they invested big money to win now.

    2. Arcia isn't the only OF option, there are plenty more.  These guys are working hard (succeeding too!) seeking their opportunity to build a career and make the twins into a big winner.

    3. Arcia has some serious flaws--he will never be sound at defense.  He will never be "a speed guy" to steal bases (remember Billy Hamilton in the CIN series?).  His splits versus LH pitchers (those LOOGYs) that seem to materialize from the 7th inning on?  Arcia would watch his Bavg cut in half.

    4. Arcia has spent part of three seasons in MLB.  If he is to be provided with these years to develop, soon he will get very expensive (as well as out of "options").

     

    Yet, Arcia is supposed to be awarded endless patience to develop--but everyone has to wait for him?  Sorry just NO.  Perhaps a change of scenery will help him immensely, perhaps not.  But the Twins can't and shouldn't provide Arcia with endless patience--they have other prospects for the OF (and DH).   Players who will either be much more rounded in their skills and thus versatile, or provide just as much power potential but have less MLB experience and can be still be developed in the minors.  Arcia is not a potential Griffey Jr. much more like a V. Cruz (now with Balt).  Let's face it some prospects never really live up to the hype.  The Twins can't lose site of other prospects  in the system to wait for Arcia.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    That's not a good move for the Giants at all.  It means zero starts for Matt Duffy (126 OPS+), starts for Hector Sanchez (51 OPS+ the past two years), and more starts for mediocre outfielders (who can currently be benched for 129 OPS+ Brandon Belt, with Posey starting often at 1B).  Not to mention increased wear and injury risk for Posey, and zero insurance in case of Posey injury, until they can draft and develop or acquire another decent catching option.

     

    All to get Plouffe (110 OPS+) into their lineup for the next 2.5 years for ~$16 mil?  Plouffe's a fine player, but that move is unnecessary at best.

     

    Frankly, they are doing what the Twins should have done with Ramos in 2010...

     

    I have to admit, I had no clue their 3B had an OPS over .800.  No, this makes no sense for them and YES, the Twins should have had Ramos play that role in 2010.

     

     

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    Maybe so.  Doubtful, IMO, but maybe so.  

     

    But that's not directly related to "What's his worth in a trade to other teams."  

     

    He HAS had a tough season, and it hasn't even been in the big leagues.  And he's not THAT young.  He might be a big side of a platoon, which knocks his value down, and he's probably not going to become a much better OFer, further knocking his value down.

     

    In any case, he's definately not part of "too expensive" when talking about getting back a catcher that you hope fills the position well for a number of years.

     

    Same for Meyer.  I know many prospect fans don't want to hear it, but the luster is off Meyer, at least in terms of what he's "worth."  At this point, he's just another struggling big arm, trying to find success at AAA (and not finding much of it, BTW) for more than a season. History of arm problems.  Most teams have similar players.  And most of those guys end up not becoming good big league players.  

     

    I agree with this and want to add something.

     

    This does not mean either is a "bust" or should be cut immediately (which Chief is not suggesting). It also doesn't mean that they aren't the type of players that another team might want to target, but it will be for a reliever or rental, not for a core player. For a core player they might be the second or third piece of a deal, but they can't be the main pieces. The same reasons people want to have them as main trade pieces are the same reasons teams aren't going to be that interested in them.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    Plawecki is currently the Mets starter, with d'Arnaud on the DL, and they're just as much in contention as the Twins are.

    Yea I know, it might be an offseason move.

     

    Or we send them something and Suzuki (who we would barely count towards the trade) to cover in the mean time.

    Edited by RedBull34
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites




    Join the conversation

    You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
    Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

    Guest
    Add a comment...

    ×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

      Only 75 emoji are allowed.

    ×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

    ×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

    ×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

    Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...