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  • Will Twins Address Their Most Glaring Weakness?


    Nick Nelson

    With the trade deadline approaching and the Twins firmly in the mix, much talk has surrounded the need for bullpen upgrades, and rightfully so. Recently we looked at some potentially available relievers that could help that unit.

    However, if the Twins want to address their greatest weakness, both now and going forward, they're going to have to make a bolder and more aggressive move.

    Image courtesy of Benny Sieu, USA Today

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    After going 0-for-8 this weekend against the A's, Kurt Suzuki is hitting .227/.283/.303 for a .585 OPS that ranks 14th out of 15 MLB catchers with 250+ plate appearances. The only lower mark belongs to Mike Zunino, who at least offers some upside as a 24-year-old former top draft pick with big minor league numbers.

    There's no such hidden promise with Suzuki. He is what he is: a very competent backup catcher who has been holding onto a starting role, based on a good first half in 2014, and a lack of viable alternatives.

    That lack of alternatives is the deep issue at play here. Because while the Twins don't desperately need to replace Suzuki at this moment – he can be hidden at the bottom of the lineup and mostly holds his own defensively – it's a clear spot where they need to get better going forward. And unlike shortstop, where Danny Santana's struggles are rendered less perturbing by the presence of names like Jorge Polanco and Nick Gordon in the system, the cupboard here is bare. The organization's depth at catcher is dreadfully thin.

    The Twins have tried Chris Herrmann and Eric Fryer as backups for Suzuki this year. Both are fringe major-league talents. Josmil Pinto, who was a hopeful successor behind the plate, lacks strong receiving skills and now has been battling concussion symptoms for most of the season, so he's basically out of the mix.

    Looking deeper into the system, you won't find much. Stuart Turner, who at No. 17 was the only backstop to rank among our Top 20 Twins prospects before the season, has a .577 OPS at Double-A. Mitch Garver, who showed some good signs in Cedar Rapids last year, has stalled out at Ft. Myers.

    The Twins need a long-term answer at the position and they're not going to find it from within, at least not for several years, so trading for a quality young catcher with some team control makes an awful lot of sense. It is something that could be addressed during the offseason, but pulling off a deal now would have the obvious added bonus of boosting their chances down the stretch this year.

    The problem is that acquiring such a player is a pricy proposition, particularly under the seller-friendly circumstances of the trade deadline. Young catchers with two-way skills are highly valued, with good reason. They are hard to find and they are major assets.

    Still, here are three players that I would target:

    Jonathan Lucroy - Brewers

    He's very appealing, for many reasons. He's under 30. He's a very good hitter who can be slotted into the middle of the lineup when healthy. He is considered strong defensively and is rated very highly by pitch-framing metrics. And best of all, he is under team control for 2016 and 2017 for less than $10 million – a tremendous value.

    Of course, for all those reasons and especially the latter, the Brewers will be very reluctant to trade Lucroy even though they're hopelessly out of contention. If he could be pried away for any prospect package that doesn't include Buxton, Sano or Berrios, Terry Ryan would have to pull the trigger. However, I'm doubtful that Milwaukee will be amenable, especially since they lack an MLB-ready replacement for Lucroy.

    Derek Norris - Padres

    Like Lucroy, Norris is a fairly young catcher with some offensive chops who could stick around for a while. Just 26, he is not eligible for free agency until 2018. San Diego might be a little more open to dealing, however, since they have a potential successor in place. Austin Hedges is one of their top prospects and is already up in the majors backing up Norris. Would a package built around, say, Oswaldo Arcia and Alex Meyer do the trick?

    Andrew Susac - Giants

    Here's a sneaky option. Susac is presently Buster Posey's backup in San Francisco, but many believe he has the stuff to start. A former second-round draft pick, he was rated as a Top 100 prospect prior to this year by both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus, has smashed Double-A and Triple-A pitching, and has an impressive .752 OPS in 218 big-league plate appearances.

    The Giants might have their own plans for Susac – no one expects Posey to stay at catcher forever – but if they were blown away by an offer they'd have to consider it.

    None of these three players would be easy to land. It would surely mean parting with multiple high-end young talents, and that's a tough pill for a rebuilding team to swallow. But if the Twins want to make the leap to the next level, sooner or later they'll need to address their situation behind the plate.

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    How would dealing Milone, or other potentially mlb worthy talent (Santana or Arcia) play over with those teams?

     

    Or do players like those not have much value any more as their ceiling is more well defined?

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    Catchers are valuable? Hey, maybe we can get abck Matt Capps and trade him straight up.

     

    Reality, aisde from the A.J. fleecing of San francisco, that is about the extent of prospects you would trade for a catcher. They can become a liability down the line...it is no longer a lifetime position and just because you do great numbers as a catcher, they don't necessarily translate well to another position. The Twins might do better going after a prospect similar to what Ramos was, on the cusp with more promise than not, and pray that he will hold up. We can sign Wieters as a free agent, but is he a train wreck waiting to happen? I ahd hopes that Mauer would be catching thru the 2016 season and parttime after that...that is where this problem truly developed. I don't believe Pinto was ever considered the young stud to replace Mauer, but more of a abckup to service the team this and next year and hope that we trade or develop another person (Danny Rams, perhaps). What would be the curren equivalent of Nathan, Liriano, Bonser in our system for a catcher? May, Stewart and Baxendale? Doubt I would do that. Meyer, Wimmers and Hu? Still wouldn't. Kepler or Walker in a deal?Possibly. But would we do better including Santana or Rosario instead. Would Arcia make someone salivate in parting with a proven gem?

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    I still wonder if the Twins even consider catcher a weakness. The starting pitching is so vastly improved and I think the Twins are happy to give Suzuki much of the credit for that, because of his off field work and rapport he supposedly has with the staff. 

     

    I would love it if they traded for one of those guys above.

     

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    Twins biggest weakness are their announcers.    Morris says something like "Well, with two outs and no one on, Perkins is going to continue his perfect save streak"    I started knocking on wood and throwing salt over my shoulder but it was too late.  Infield single, wild pitch and a blooper later and the Twins lose.          Bremer says stuff like that all the time too and it always costs the Twins.    Aren't baseball people superstitious anymore?

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    Great article with some interesting options. But I think we should add Polanco, Kepler, Stewart, and Gordon to the list of players we would not trade for Lucroy. By the time Buxton, Sano, and Berrios are in their prime, Lucroy may not be in our control and may not be a catcher anymore.

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    Arcia and Meyer for Norris? Seems really expensive.

    If two players with multiple years of AAA experience, neither of which are currently deemed good enough to be on the 2015 big league team, is too expensive, then it will not be possible to upgrade catcher through a trade.

     

    Teams are not going to improve the Twins out of a sense of charity.

     

    At this point, both Meyer and Arcia would be viewed as suspects more than prospects by everyone except us. And rightly so.

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    If two players with multiple years of AAA experience, neither of which are currently deemed good enough to be on the 2015 big league team, is too expensive, then it will not be possible to upgrade catcher through a trade.

    Teams are not going to improve the Twins out of a sense of charity.

    At this point, both Meyer and Arcia would be viewed as suspects more than prospects by everyone except us. And rightly so.

     

    Agree. This doesn't get it done. I would say absurdly cheap, not expensive.

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    I still wonder if the Twins even consider catcher a weakness. The starting pitching is so vastly improved and I think the Twins are happy to give Suzuki much of the credit for that, because of his off field work and rapport he supposedly has with the staff. 

     

     

     

    This.  With Suzuki signed thru this year they'll ride him until at least this winter before they think catcher trade.

     

    A bigger need is relief pitching and I think if Ryan is going to send off any of his valuable prospects at the trade deadline it will be for relief pitching.

     

     

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    If two players with multiple years of AAA experience, neither of which are currently deemed good enough to be on the 2015 big league team, is too expensive, then it will not be possible to upgrade catcher through a trade.

    Teams are not going to improve the Twins out of a sense of charity.

    At this point, both Meyer and Arcia would be viewed as suspects more than prospects by everyone except us. And rightly so.

    Absolutely.  TD posters are wont to believe the Twins party line about prospects--but not the GMs of other MLB franchises.  Both Arcia and Meyer would be viewed as busts (Meyer more so than Arcia).  They wouldn't fetch anything more than an old nag in a trade.  If the Twins truly believe they should acquire a high-upside Catcher, they will have to offer substantial compensation.  Berrios plus one of the Pablos, and likely some pitching from Class A.  

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    :jump:   I see there's still a lot of people doing bargain shopping. 

    I view minor league players with a more skeptical eye than many of you.  I don't believe a player in your MiLB system at single A level can or should be your #1 prospect.  Or a 16 yr. old kid just signed from the international pool is suddenly the #10 prospect in your system.  If these things are true, you've got a pretty bad system. 

     

    If the Twins are contemplating a trade, EVERYONE is available. 

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    Absolutely.  TD posters are wont to believe the Twins party line about prospects--but not the GMs of other MLB franchises.  Both Arcia and Meyer would be viewed as busts (Meyer more so than Arcia).  They wouldn't fetch anything more than an old nag in a trade.  If the Twins truly believe they should acquire a high-upside Catcher, they will have to offer substantial compensation.  Berrios plus one of the Pablos, and likely some pitching from Class A.  

    I don't believe Arcia is a bust.  I think he missed out on MiLB development time and is still catching up. 

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    Who got the last laugh in that trade? Not the Twins, unfortunately.

    Certainly the Giants didn't get the last laugh - A.J. was released after one season.

     

    Maybe the White Sox for signing him as a free agent? 

     

    I don't see how the Twins were anything but clear winners and last laughers for getting Liriano and Nathan and Boof Bonser while clearing a path for Mauer to start.

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    Absolutely.  TD posters are wont to believe the Twins party line about prospects--but not the GMs of other MLB franchises.  Both Arcia and Meyer would be viewed as busts (Meyer more so than Arcia).  They wouldn't fetch anything more than an old nag in a trade.  If the Twins truly believe they should acquire a high-upside Catcher, they will have to offer substantial compensation.  Berrios plus one of the Pablos, and likely some pitching from Class A.  

    I agree. I think the article does well to describe why these three players are probably the best catchers who could be available in a trade. But I almost always find that specific trades proposed on this site are not realistic, and this article is no exception. We would have to give up more than this article suggests. Quality would have to be dealt; quantity won't do it. I'm pretty sure it will require a prized prospect and/or a good major leaguer to get any of them.

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    Absolutely.  TD posters are wont to believe the Twins party line about prospects--but not the GMs of other MLB franchises.  Both Arcia and Meyer would be viewed as busts (Meyer more so than Arcia).  They wouldn't fetch anything more than an old nag in a trade.  If the Twins truly believe they should acquire a high-upside Catcher, they will have to offer substantial compensation.  Berrios plus one of the Pablos, and likely some pitching from Class A.  

     

    I hate to take a side path on the fourth thread dedicated to trading for a catching upgrade, but I have a question. Do you think the Twins hype prospects more than national media outlets do? Or even local outlets like our own Seth Stohs?

     

    I don't think teams actually hype their prospects anymore, other outlets do all that work for them. If anything, teams try to downplay a little bit - aside from the top guys who get talked about all the time.

     

    In my mind, aside from overrating our own prospects relative to what they can get in a trade - the other issue we run into all the time on this board is the assumption that marginal prospects can come on to the team and do just as well (if not substantially better) than players that are already here.

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    I don't anticipate any of those three being a MN Twin this season, alas. I don't understand why SD would trade their best/2nd best position player, who is 26......I don't think they will pay the price for Lucroy.....Susac is pretty much a lock to be the starter there, with Posey getting more 1B time....

     

    I just don't see it.

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    I agree. I think the article does well to describe why these three players are probably the best catchers who could be available in a trade. But I almost always find that specific trades proposed on this site are not realistic, and this article is no exception. We would have to give up more than this article suggests. Quality would have to be dealt; quantity won't do it. I'm pretty sure it will require a prized prospect and/or a good major leaguer to get any of them.

     

    That is part of the fun of being on an anonymous message board right?

     

    And yes, the one proposal made in the article is unfortunate.

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    The other thing to consider for the Twins is Short Term / medium term / Long Term solution for the position.

     

    If Lucroy or Norris is the guy, he may need to find another position in a few years. Maybe that's not a big deal.

     

    Susac and Plawecki would probably stick at catcher for at least 5 more seasons given their age, barring injury.

     

    Turner and Garver and Navaretto are realistically about 3 years away from regular playing time for the Twins, assuming they continue to develop and everything breaks right for them - that's a lot to ask for.

     

    It would be pretty unrealistic for the Twins to go after Lucroy or Norris at this point given the cost. Terry Ryan is notoriously reluctant to deal away prospects for one big name. I could see something being done for one of the younger catchers in the offseason.  

     

    Mid season this year, I think it is a lot more likely that Ryan would go after a current MLB catcher whose stock has dropped or was never that big of a name in the first place. Someone like Dioner Navarro, Brayan Pena, or old pal AJ are the more likely targets for the trade deadline.

     

    My guess is that they may inquire on those three, but not come to an agreement on any catcher until the offseason.

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    I guess my first thought is that our bullpen is our most glaring weakness.  As much as I would like to upgrade the catching situation, there is far greater potential for improvement by upgrading the bullpen than there is by upgrading at catcher and at a lesser price.

     

    The reality is that there are very few good catchers out there - I think people will be shocked at what the price is in terms of trades.  That's one reason I'm not interested in Lucroy.  We would have to pony up some of our best prospects and we are guaranteed to only have him for a couple of years.  Just too expensive.

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    Arcia has even less trade value in the National League due to his poor defense, which is where the three targets in this article currently reside. We'll see if "Tradin Terry" can pull off something to help the team this year, and without mortgaging the future.

    Edited by puckstopper1
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    But I almost always find that specific trades proposed on this site are not realistic, and this article is no exception. We would have to give up more than this article suggests.

    I didn't suggest any specific trades in this article, so I'm not sure what you're referring to. I asked if people thought Arcia & Meyer might be enough to get Norris. Otherwise, I said Milwaukee would be unlikely to give up Lucroy without getting back one of Buxton/Sano/Berrios and said the Giants would need to be "blown away" to give up Susac. So. Yeah.
     

     

    Agree. This doesn't get it done. I would say absurdly cheap, not expensive.

    "Absurdly cheap," eh? The Padres acquired Norris in December for Jesse Hahn and R.J. Alvarez, a minor-league starter and reliever, neither of whom were ranked as Top 100 prospects. Now Norris has a 684 OPS through his first half-season with them. I'm going to need you to elaborate on this viewpoint. It might not be enough, I don't know, that's why I was genuinely asking for feedback... but "absurd"? Nah.

     

    If I'm the offense-needy Padres, I'd love to get my hands on a young hitter of Arcia's caliber. The notion that anyone views him as a "bust" at age 24, as someone posited earlier on this thread, is what's absurd.

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    I would take Norris for Arcia and Meyer in a heartbeat. 3 more years of team control, entering offensive prime years, and leaving Petco park all look favorable. Upton is leaving the Padres as a FA this fall, so maybe Arcia fills their need for MLB ready corner outfielder.

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    I would take Norris for Arcia and Meyer in a heartbeat. 3 more years of team control, entering offensive prime years, and leaving Petco park all look favorable. Upton is leaving the Padres as a FA this fall, so maybe Arcia fills their need for MLB ready corner outfielder.

    They still have Wil Myers and Matt Kemp under contract/control for another 4 seasons. I don't think Arcia is an upgrade over either one (especially Myers) and I don't see how the Padres would be able to trade Kemp and his contract anyways.

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