Will the Twins Pursue Aaron Judge?

The Yankees offered Aaron Judge a seven-year, $213.5 million extension last spring, but it was an offer he could refuse. He bet on himself, arguably having the best walk-year in MLB history. He finished the season with an AL-record 62 home runs, and only Luis Arraez kept him from winning the Triple Crown. Now, Judge has an opportunity to shine in October before hitting the free agent market for the first time in his career. 

Judge is the likely AL MVP, and he will become a free agent heading into his age-31 season. For reference, Carlos Correa, who is likely heading back to the free agent market, is two years younger than Judge. Both players project to get massive long-term deals, and the Twins will have payroll flexibility this winter. Does that mean the Twins have room to add Judge?

Like many players, Judge has seen up-and-down seasons throughout his professional career. He burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2017 as he led the AL in home runs (52), RBI (128), and walks (127) on his way to being named Rookie of the Year. Injuries impacted his next three seasons, but he still posted a 146 OPS+ when on the field. To produce like his rookie season, Judge needed to adjust his routines to stay healthy regularly.

Over the last two seasons, Judge has averaged over 150 games per year because he is “being smarter” about his preparation. The results speak for themselves. Judge has averaged 152 games per season since the start of 2021 with a 180 OPS+. During his monster 2022 season, he led the AL in runs, home runs, RBI, walks, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, and total bases. It was a memorable season, and now he will make significantly more than the $217.5 million the Yankees offered him this spring. 

Minnesota has the potential to hand out a long-term contract this winter to one of baseball’s most prominent free agents, but Judge might not fit the team’s long-term plans. The Twins have multiple outfield options heading into the 2023 season. Byron Buxton signed long-term, and Max Kepler is entering the final guaranteed year of his contract. The club also has three young outfielders (Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner) that will need playing time in the corner outfield spots. Not all these players are guaranteed to be healthy, so Minnesota will need outfield depth entering the 2023 campaign. 

Obviously, any team can find room in the lineup for a player of Judge’s caliber, but other top free agents might be a better fit in Minnesota. Correa already has an established relationship with many of the Twins’ young players and has a chance to provide more value since he is younger. Even coming off his monster season, Judge’s free agent market might not play out perfectly, and this could allow a surprise team to emerge. The Twins have done this in recent years with Correa and Josh Donaldson. 

It seems most likely for Judge to return to New York and sign a contract that keeps him in pinstripes for the rest of his career. However, Judge might be looking for a different market if he feels the Yankees gave him a lowball offer last spring. 

Do you want the Twins to pursue Judge this winter? Does he fit with Minnesota’s long-term plan? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.