Will Luis Arraez Return to His 2019 Form?

I need to hit you with the 10 games because data in a sample too small should not be used to make decisions about the future. it doesn’t matter that the season is shorter. The length of the season doesn’t change the size needed for a reliable sample.

One piece does stand out to me is the xBA. His xBA IN 2019 was .292 and is .271 for 2020. Does that seem like a drastic change? Were his numbers last year skewed by a much higher than expected BABIP with this year the reverse is happening?

Will he return to form? I don’t think it is certain that he ever abandoned his form. He puts a lot of balls in play and his results are always going to be BABIP driven and subject to significant variance due to sample.

The sss numbers would really be horrible if you took out the first two games! Fans were drooling over the future .400 hitter after 5 games and a .389 BA, and crying after going hitless for the next 6 games, and o for August. Such is the beginning of a season blues. For all. I don't think he will hit anywhere close to .400, (maybe above .300)  but should develop some power ala Puckett. Not many stolen bases in his future. I would hope the Twins would try to culture a better second base option. We really missed a great value in DJ LeMahieu, and went on the cheap with Schoop, instead, that lead us here. I hope it works out. 

The Twins are riding with Arraez as a starter this year.  That will not change unless he completely implodes or gets hurt.  Either way, there are plenty of players who can fill in.

Please try doing three things differently:

• Less hand-wringing when only 12 games have been played (yes, even though 20% of the schedule is now over)
• Look at how he is being pitched to and defended in new ways
• Expect that everything will _not_ pick up exactly where it left off last season

Pitching and defense adjust....Batter adjusts. He'll be fine

I'd love to isolate and look at his launch angle during his recent slump, however many games it has been. I think he's getting some bad BABIP luck... but I think for him the issue is launch angle. I have noticed him hitting the ball hard, but with a lot more air under it meaning balls are hanging higher in the air and easier to track down. 

I am worried that Arraez may have tweaked his swing to try and get more loft on the ball and it is having a negative impact. More likely it's a small mechanical tweak that he needs to make to lower his launch angle and it was accidental. 

Ultimately, I think Arraez will be fine. He still takes really good ABs and has a great eye and contact skills. That should allow him to be a high obp/high avg guy. Now, how valuable is an average to below average fielder with average speed on the basepaths as a .285 - .295 avg -.350-360 OBP guy versus a .325-.335 avg - .390-.400 obp guy... that's always been the question with Arraez.

"Before you hit me with “It’s only been ten games,” just remember that is nearly 20% of the season. There isn't really such thing as a small sample size in this strange season."

That's not how statistics work.