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  • Why Can't the Twins Spend Like the Padres?


    Cody Christie

    The Padres made a splash on the final day of MLB's Winter Meetings by signing Xander Bogaerts. So, why can't the Twins spend like the Padres? The answer is complicated.

    Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

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    Fans of every MLB team want their franchise to spend more money. It is one of the most straightforward solutions to improve a team because increasing payroll allows clubs to add the best free agents. However, spending more money is no guarantee of success. Plenty of small market teams are annual contenders because of their player development and smart front offices. The Twins and the Padres take different approaches to create their 26-man roster, so why are these clubs so different?

    Payroll Comparison
    Last season, the Padres had a payroll of $214 million, with three players making more than $16 million. Minnesota's payroll was $72 million less than the Padres, with Carlos Correa accounting for 24.7% of the team's $142 million payroll. San Diego has Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. signed to contracts worth over $300 million. Yu Darvish and Wil Myers are making $20 million or more in 2022. Currently, the Padres only trail the Mets and Yankees for the highest projected payroll for the 2023 campaign. 

    Market Size
    Compared to other MLB teams, the Padres are a clear mid-market team, which is one reason San Diego is down to one professional sports team. MLB's three largest markets (New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago) all have multiple MLB franchises The San Diego metropolitan area, and the Minneapolis-Saint Paul markets are similar in population. It seems logical that both teams can spend similar amounts on payroll, but that isn't the case. 

    TV Deals
    One of the club's most significant revenue sources is its TV deal. Minnesota is entering the final year of a 12-year, $480 million deal that pays the club around $40 million annually. In 2012, the Padres signed a 20-year deal for $1.2 to 1.5 billion, putting the average annual payments to the club in the $50-$75 million range. The Padres also have a 20% equity share in the network broadcasting their games, which means the club can earn more revenue as more fans watch games. Minnesota's expiring TV deal will be interesting to watch over the next year. Will the club be able to spend more in 2023 and beyond because of increased revenue from a new deal?   

    AL Central Comparison
    Minnesota is in one of baseball's weakest divisions, and the club has a higher payroll than every team in the division besides Chicago. Last week, Ted Schwerzler discussed that the Twins' payroll should be closer to $160 million than $140 million. Cleveland easily won the AL Central last season with a payroll below $70 million. Some expect the Guardians' payroll to increase as a new ownership group gains more say in the team's spending. Detroit has also shown a willingness to spend when the club is in contention.

    There are similarities between San Diego and Minnesota regarding market size, but the Padres have continually outspent the Twins. Rosters are incomplete for the 2023 season, but it seems unlikely for the Twins to get anywhere near the $235 million projected for the Padres. Minnesota's TV deal is hampering some of its revenues, but they are spending more than enough to be competitive in the AL Central. 

    Should the Twins spend similarly to the Padres? Will a new TV deal help the team's willingness to spend? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

     

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    1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

    Like Ryan and Varland and Ober? Like Duran? Like Arraez? Like Gordon, who is finally showing something? Like Wallner? Or Larnach (before getting hurt)? 

    Fangraphs has MN 18th in rankings. Yes, they are down, but then, they dealt for Gray, was that bad? Would you rather they not have Gray right now? I get that Mahle got hurt, sucks for sure.....Also, the Twins made the playoffs in 19 and 20, kind of hurt their draft position.....But the idea the system is a barren wasteland, as some have stated, just isn't true. If Lewis is finally healthy and a few others are what some here think they are, I think people will be very happy in a couple years.

    It doesn’t have to be “barren”, it just has to not produce enough quality players to help the big team. A lot of the guys you mention are big question marks. Even Ryan was up and down. Way too soon to tell on varland. Ober is not super impressive even when healthy. Lewis coming off an ACL. 

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    Just now, Aggies7 said:

    It doesn’t have to be “barren”, it just has to not produce enough quality players to help the big team. A lot of the guys you mention are big question marks. Even Ryan was up and down. Way too soon to tell on varland. Ober is not super impressive even when healthy. Lewis coming off an ACL. 

    How many rookies do you expect to come and help each year? Realistically help? 

    Ryan was a number three starter. Duran? Best RP in the game, maybe. Varland filled in admirably, as did Wallner. Lewis looked legit before getting hurt. Oh, and Miranda was very good. Larnach and Kiriloff got hurt. I think all but AK were rookies last year. Then you have Arraez and Gordon and Jeffers, who were rookies the year before or the one before that. This is one of the younger teams in the game.....

    I just don't see how we can argue that there is no help coming up at all. Next year? Hopefully a healthy Lewis, Wallner, SWR are likely to see time. Lee might. That doesn't count any RPs like Enlow or Winder, for example. 

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    6 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

    I recall Steinbrenner getting into this situation.  He'd always spend tons of $ on FA's and prospect capital on trades for veterans only to have an empty farm system.  Over the years, they have balanced this out to where Cashman maintains the flow of prospects while signing key FA's like Judge and Cole.

    I agree that SD may fall into this trap and end up with high-priced aging vets and little to no prospects to fill the gaps.  The proof will be in the pudding in a few years.

    It's getting harder to acquire prospects because everybody is holding them.

    Maybe that's a plus consideration for the Padres.

    Their willingness to part with them made them more attractive trade partners.

    The only thing I'm reasonably sure of... Once the farm is drained... the only way to avoid the rebuild is too spend more. The Padres have drained the farm and the 10 year deals have been signed. The Padres are not the Yankees, Mets or Dodgers who could spend their way through a drained farm. Yet the Padres drained it anyway while the Dodgers keep their favorite prospects and the Yankees have been hanging on to those two young shortstops with both hands. 

    The Red Sox drained the farm and Betts and Bogaarts are gone. The Cubs drained the farm and the rebuild has started. 

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    Resurrecting this old thread because of a recent article I came across. 

    The Padres, who play in Major League Baseball’s fifth-smallest media market, are taking in so much money that they expect to for the first time ever be a payor into the league’s revenue sharing program.

    “I think it’s a validation of the approach that if you invest in the team on the field and you create a compelling and winning product, the fans will respond,” Padres CEO Erik Greupner said last week. “I think that was always in the forefront of Peter’s mind when he initiated that strategy.”

     

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