Who's Number 1? Twins Draft Primer

Saturday was monumental for Brendan McKay and Kyle Wright. Each collegiate hurler took the hill as starting pitcher for his team in a critical Super Regionals game. Both were televised on ESPN. And on top of all that, the draft prospects know they were making their closing arguments for the distinction (and signing bonus) of becoming the first player taken Monday.

For their teams and for them personally, the stakes could not have been higher for McKay and Wright.

McKay rose to the occasion in a big way, leading his Louisville Cardinals to a series-clinching victory over Kentucky with 6 2/3 scoreless innings. His impressive performance came on the heels of this report from MLB.com's Jim Callis:

"Though the teams selecting behind the Twins think they're leaning toward Vanderbilt right-hander Kyle Wright, I started hearing whispers Thursday night that Minnesota prefers Louisville two-way star Brendan McKay. That noise is getting louder Friday, and I now believe the Twins will take McKay No. 1, as a left-handed pitcher rather than a first baseman, unless California high school righty Hunter Greene overwhelms them in his visit to Target Field on Friday afternoon."

Did Greene overwhelm them? Will McKay's final impression push him over the edge? And how did Wright's Saturday evening go in an elimination game against a daunting opponent?

The latest on all three, below (click names for full in-depth profiles):

Brendan McKay: LHP/1B, Louisville

While cruising through his outing against Kentucky, McKay didn't flash the kind of velocity that catches your eye, but showed immense polish. He struck out nine and walked none, looking much like a guy who could go out and get it done on a big-league mound right now. McKay peppered the zone with good breaking balls, and is putting the finishing touches on a two-way collegiate career for the ages.

Though he went 0-for-5 at the plate, his abilities at the plate as a lefty-hitting first baseman are well established. That would be less useful in the American League but there's a real possibility he could be a pinch-hitting option between starts, a la Madison Bumgarner.

McKay's jump to the head of the pack, if the Callis report is accurate, comes after weeks of speculation that Wright was the favorite.

Kyle Wright: RHP, Vanderbilt

Wright had his work cut out for him, guiding his unranked Commodores against the nation's No. 1 team, Oregon State. He battled 6 2/3 innings, and while the numbers don't impress – he was charged with seven earned runs, three coming on a big homer in the third inning – he threw pitches with a ton of life while showing smooth and consistent mechanics.

It's hard to hold the way he finished against him; Wright loaded the bases and walked in a run before being pulled at 122 pitches (two more would score afterward, adding to his ledger). He was laboring but answering the call as the ace of a team on the brink of elimination. There was plenty to like about the righty's outing, in which he struck out eight and threw some truly filthy sliders.

Mike Berardino's comparison to a young Kevin Brown seems apt in many ways. Wright has everything you look for in a prospective frontline starting pitcher, and he could speed through the minors. As I wrote last week, his potential for rapid ascent would be a nice timeline fit for a team that appears to be at the front end of its contention window.

Despite the recent steam for McKay, I still see Wright as the most likely pick. It's this simple: the Twins need fast-tracked pitching and he is pretty clearly the best college arm in the country. Historically, those are fairly safe picks.

McKay, by the admission of his own coach at Louisville, may not be the best pitcher or hitter in college baseball (he places the two-way star "top three to five" in both categories). In contrasting the clear-cut top two collegiate talents in the nation, the choice seems fairly clear to me.

But then there's Greene, who makes as strong a case to be taken first overall as any prep right-handed pitcher has in history. And he put it all on display during a Friday workout in Minneapolis late last week.

Hunter Greene: RHP/SS, Notre Dame HS (Sherman Oaks, CA)

As expected, and as usual, Greene wowed onlookers during a session at Target Field on Friday. He reportedly hit 101 MPH from the mound and put on show at the plate, launching four home runs.

The 17-year-old oozes potential, and a level of upside that few draft prospects in recent history could match. It feels like, if the Twins pass on him, we will be doomed to a future of "what-ifs." We'll follow his progression closely, lamenting every fast promotion and extraordinary achievement. Of course, on the flip side, if they pass and Greene doesn't work out, the front office ultimately comes away looking really, really good.

This kid has a set of skills and tools rarely seen on the diamond. He gave the Twins a final reminder of that on Friday. If they choose to go another direction, it's on them, for better or worse.

There remains a distinct chance that Minnesota could pass on all three of the names above. If they're not enamored with McKay, Wright or Greene as a true No. 1 talent, then they could aim to strike a deal with someone slightly lower on the board to save pool money on one of their ensuing picks.

Jeremy Nygaard explained how this might work in his latest edition of The Scouting Skinny, which went out to newsletter subscribers last week.

Basically, we keep hearing that that the Twins have six players on their radar for the first pick, not just the three mentioned above. The idea is that by signing someone like MacKenzie Gore or Pavin Smith, who wouldn't normally be under consideration at the top, the Twins could sign that player below slot and then have more money available for bonuses at, say, No. 35 or No. 37. This was the approach Philadelphia took last year, signing No. 1 pick Mickey Moniak for about $3 million under slot and then luring their second pick, prep righty Kevin Gowdy, away from a UCLA commitment by offering almost double the slotted amount at No. 42.

This turns our attention toward a subject we haven't yet broached in this primer: Minnesota has two more picks within the Top 40, and those also figure to be of enormous importance. It gets cumbersome to preview and break down those selections, because the number of realistic candidates goes from a handful to several dozen, but there is one name in particular that people around the Twins Cities will be following very closely.

He is not in consideration to go first overall, but it sounds like the Twins would be more than happy to grab Burnsville's Sam Carlson if he makes it back to them at 35. This seems unlikely.

The big right-hander ranks 15th on MLB.com's board and 21st on Baseball America's. He's in the conversation for best high school arm in the country, and reports suggest many teams are eyeing him in the first round. But Carlson has a scholarship from the University of Florida in his pocket, so money talks.

For Minnesota to have a realistic shot at Carlson, it would require him slipping – probably due to signability concerns – and the Twins having extra cash in hand from cutting a deal at No. 1 to alleviate such concerns.

Something to keep an eye on.

Here's what the most recent mocks from major prospect publications are projecting for Monday:

Baseball America Mock Draft 4.0

Twins #1 pick: Kyle Wright, RHP (Vanderbilt)

Twins #35 pick: Brent Rooker, 1B (Mississippi State)

Keith Law (ESPN) Mock Draft 3.0

Twins #1 pick: Brendan McKay, LHP/1B (Louisville)

Bleacher Report

Twins #1 pick: Brendan McKay, LHP/1B (Louisville)

CBS Sports

Twins #1 pick: Kyle Wright, RHP (Vanderbilt)

Jeremy Nygaard/Twins Daily

Twins #1 pick: Kyle Wright, RHP (Vanderbilt)

Twins #35 pick: Blayne Enlow, RHP (LA prep)

Twins #37 pick: Jacob Heatherly, LHP (AL prep)

Twins #76 pick: Riley Adams, C (University of San DIego)

Twins #106 pick: Michael Baumann, RHP (Jacksonville University)

Twins #136 pick: Bryce Montes de Oca, RHP (University of Missouri)

Twins #166 pick: Seth Lonsway, LHP (OH prep)

Twins #196 pick: Griff McGarry, RHP (CA prep)

Twins #226 pick: Dalton Guthrie, SS (University of Florida)

Twins #256 pick: J.J. Schwarz, C (University of Florida)

Twins #288 pick: Reed Rohlman, OF (Clemson University)

Check out Jeremy Nygaard's 10-round Twins mock draft to learn more about the players listed above.

Previous Draft Profiles:

Draft Profile: Hunter Greene, SP/SS by Nick Nelson

Draft Profile: Kyle Wright, SP by Jeremy Nygaard

Draft Profile: Brendan McKay, SP/1B by Cody Christie

Draft Profile: MacKenzie Gore, LHP by Steve Lein

Draft Profile: Royce Lewis, SS/OF by Nick Nelson

Draft Profile: Pavin Smith, 1B by Tom Froemming