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Ryan Sweeney
Sweeney didn’t play in 2015, but is coming back as a 31-year-old. Once a top prospect in the White Sox organization (and considered one of the best BP hitters in baseball history), Sweeney never really clicked. Still, he brings a veteran presence (and we know how much the Twins value that), plays center field, and hits from the left side (to complement Buxton from the right). Through five games, he’s hit .333/.500/.400 in 16 plate appearances. Certainly, we shouldn’t take spring training performance at face value, but he’s also earning rave reviews according to Mike Berardino:
https://twitter.com/MikeBerardino/status/706907508674273281
Chances he'll come north? 75%. Almost nothing would shock me less. Sweeney’s the kind of guy the Twins could fall in love with, and I think one of the next two guys will flop hard enough that the Twins will want to keep him around. Not that that’s a bad thing. I think Sweeney’s still got the potential to be a useful ballplayer.
Danny Santana
Santana has the most plate appearances on the Twins so far through six spring training games. And while he’s only hitting .111/.105/.278, it’s clear that the Twins are heavily invested in him winning the job. It looks like Santana might not be willing to cooperate, but they’ll give him every opportunity to fail. And I do mean every single one, as he’s out of options. Plus, as a switch hitter who can play shortstop (in theory), he has added value. If he keeps this slow start up, however, perhaps he’d be a guy you could slip through waivers.
Chances he'll come north? 60%. Far higher than his performance has earned.
Oswaldo Arcia
Left-handed, with incredible power, Arcia is a streaky hitter who runs unbelievably hot and cold. He would almost certainly be better served by a starting role, which would allow him to find his groove. Barring an injury, that’s not likely to happen. Arcia’s already made a bit of news by walking three times in one game over the weekend, something he’s done only once in the majors, and said afterwards that being more patient is a point of emphasis for him. We’ll see. Like Santana, he is out of options, and seems unlikely to slip through waivers. He’s been in the Twins’ doghouse for so long, however, that they may not care.
Chances he'll come north? 40%. His power is undeniable, but the defense has been awful (though he's made some impressive defensive plays so far, he can’t play center field, and is seen as a disappointment. My guess is that either Santana or Arcia will get put on waivers. Santana’s positional flexibility gives him the edge, and if Sweeney makes the club, he and Arcia are both left-handed.
Carlos Quentin
Kind of the right-handed version of Arcia, but Quentin also has that veteran label that the Twins have loved in the past. He didn’t play last year, but has nine years in the league hitting .252/.347/.484 (120 OPS+). He’s also like Coach from Cheers (I’m an old person), in that it’s virtually impossible not to hit him with a pitch and he is incredibly delicate, topping 100 games played just three times in his career. The reviews of his performance so far are a little mixed:
https://twitter.com/MikeBerardino/status/707252883000004608
Quentin offers a little versatility in that he can also play first base, but God knows the Twins have enough guys who can do that right now, between Mauer, Park, Sano and Vargas.
Chances he'll come north? 12.5%. Something would have to happen to one of the other 1B/DH/corner OF guys for Quentin to make the team, especially as a right-handed bat. His other best hope is that the Twins decide to send Buxton to Rochester for a month.
Darin Mastroianni
If Santana and Arcia had options left, I’d bet the Twins would find some way to keep Mastroianni around. He’s able to play all three outfield spots and is an accomplished base stealer. He also had a previous go-around with the Twins that ended in injury woes. He’s not a good player, but fits fine as a below-average backup outfielder.
Chances he'll come north? 6.3%. Mastroianni is just behind too many people on the depth chart, and isn’t good enough to be more than an emergency option at this point.
Max Kepler
He’s a great young prospect who can handle center field for now, has tremendous plate discipline and good mid-range power to go with a strong hit tool. Kepler’s likely to be the best position prospect in the Twins’ minor league system at the start of the year. He’s had three singles in nine plate appearances so far.
Chances he'll come North? 6.3%. There’s simply no chance of Kepler making this team unless Buxton doesn’t or someone gets hurt. The Twins need him to play everyday, and keeping him in a reserve role will stall the development of one of their future linchpins.
Others
Joe Benson is a 28 year old who has hit .202/.288/.302 at Triple-A. He’ll be depth at Rochester.
No one short of Miguel Sano has Adam Brett Walker’s power, but his complete inability to control the strike zone means that he’ll spend almost all of 2016 in the minors. He’ll have to make incredible adjustments to find any success in the Majors.
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