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  • Where Does Pelfrey Fit In?


    Nick Nelson

    His name invariably elicits a visceral response from Twins fans. When talking about how the 2015 pitching staff will shake out, nobody seems to like hearing him brought up.

    Well, like it or not (and in most cases the answer is "not"), Mike Pelfrey was signed to a two-year deal during the offseason and is owed $5.5 million next year, so he'll get his chance.

    Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today Sports

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    It's easy to see why Pelfrey isn't popular among the Twins faithful. He was a mediocre pitcher in the National League before being signed. He hasn't pitched well here. He works slowly on the mound and his starts tend to drag on.

    More than that, the Twins' dealings with him have been emblematic of what frustrates a lot of folks about the way this team operates -- too much of a cater-to-the-player, bargain-seeking approach.

    When they initially signed him, they got him at a bargain price because he was coming off elbow surgery and few other teams wanted to risk relying on a player who was in recovery mode. His $4 million deal was one of the cheapest guaranteed contracts for a starting pitcher during that offseason, at a time where the Twins desperately needed quality arms.

    And this past winter, when they re-signed him, it was difficult to view his contract as anything other than a favor to a guy they liked. Who else was going to give Pelfrey multiple years coming off 13 losses and a 5.19 ERA, when he was never that great to begin with?

    I can certainly agree with those critiques, but at the same time, I think the negativity I see directed toward Pelf is over-the-top. His struggles early on in the 2013 season were completely predictable following his insanely rapid return from Tommy John, but in the final three months of the season he was solid: 4.39 ERA, 2-to-1 K/BB, just six homers allowed in 15 starts.

    I saw a lot of people using Pelfrey's poor start this year as justification for their complaints about his contract, and it always struck me as disingenuous. He was never healthy. If he was healthy and pitched badly, you could say the Twins screwed up, but I still believe that the guy we saw in the second half last season could be a decent value at $5.5 million as a fifth starter.

    Whether the Twins should have really been aiming for a fifth starter is another matter, of course, but that's all in the past so there's no use sulking about it now.

    The question, at this point, is what kind of value he can provide next year.

    If things proceed as planned, it's tough to see how he fits into the starting rotation. You have to assume that Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco and Kyle Gibson will all enter camp as locks. Trevor May should get a spot as long as he's not a mess during spring training. Alex Meyer should be in position to win a spot as well. He'll be 25 with a full year of Triple-A under his belt; it's time to let him roll.

    Factor in Tommy Milone, who should at least be in the mix, and there doesn't appear to be much room for Mr. Pelfrey. I don't think it's fair to penalize him for getting hurt, but he just hasn't done anything to earn a look over the younger guys.

    The best route -- and one the Twins have to be considering -- might be moving the 6'7" righty into a relief role. It actually makes a ton of sense. Too much sense.

    He's basically a one-trick pony, but that fastball he throws 80 percent of the time could be more of weapon with a few extra ticks of velocity. And with the way things have played out late in this season, it looks like the Twins may need some new blood in the bullpen next year.

    When not injured, Pelfrey has proven to have a durable and resilient arm (he basically never missed a start from 2008 through 2011), so he could turn into a guy they can use for multiple innings, or several days in a row. That has value.

    If he blossoms in that role, Pelfrey could easily be worth the $5.5 million they pay him next year. And he might uncover a new path for success in the second half of his career.

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    On inside twins this morning, TR said only Hughes is a lock for the rotation next year. I got the distinct feeling he is not happy with the whole lot of them. My guess is that any role is going to be earned in spring training

    This aligns with one of his recent statements: when asked what he needed to accomplish this off-season, the first thing he mentioned was "rotation depth".

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    It is really hard to like anything about this. I have been adamant for two years about this. At this point, giving him a relief role is fine since the Twins are paying him anyway. Ideally, the Twins could trade him while paying 80-90% of that salary in exchange for some player of C-level caliber right now (but hopefully under 22).

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    This aligns with one of his recent statements: when asked what he needed to accomplish this off-season, the first thing he mentioned was "rotation depth".

    I would prefer he work on rotation "topth" rather than depth.

     

    I don't think improving the options for fifth starter will have the impact that improving the options for opening day starter would.

     

    Although I do agree it's rather disheartening to see Swarzak getting more than one September start.

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    I would prefer he work on rotation "topth" rather than depth.

     

    I don't think improving the options for fifth starter will have the impact that improving the options for opening day starter would.

     

    Although I do agree it's rather disheartening to see Swarzak getting more than one September start.

     

    Yeah, can we sub "talent" for "depth".  I am not sure what type of depth the Tigers have.  But it doesn't matter.

    Edited by tobi0040
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    How can a team with this many 4/5 types have Swarzak starting multiple times in September after rosters expand? Mind. Boggling.

    I can give them a pass on the first, as if I remember correctly they had 2 doubleheader in two days. The second one not so much.
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    It raises the question, to me, how can you have expanded rosters, have a lot of SP options, and have to start your long term reliever?

     

    How can a team that has traded for SP, signed 3 FA starters, "developed" SP, signed minor league AAA SP, graduated the only guy they've drafted and developed into a full time starter......how can that team be stuck starting a career middle reliever? Years into a rebuild, where you've traded two starting OF, drafted numerous pitchers, signed FAs, signed minor league FAs, and you still have a terrible SP ERA, and can't even find 5 starters........

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    Maybe the training / medical staff is still terrible?

     

    Pelfrey - out for the season

    Nolasco - injured most of the year

    Perkins - shut down, out for the season

    Pino - out for the season

    Milone - shut down, out for the season

    Meyer - shut down, out for the season (not on the 40-Man anyway)

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    It raises the question, to me, how can you have expanded rosters, have a lot of SP options, and have to start your long term reliever?

     

    How can a team that has traded for SP, signed 3 FA starters, "developed" SP, signed minor league AAA SP, graduated the only guy they've drafted and developed into a full time starter......how can that team be stuck starting a career middle reliever? Years into a rebuild, where you've traded two starting OF, drafted numerous pitchers, signed FAs, signed minor league FAs, and you still have a terrible SP ERA, and can't even find 5 starters........

    An indication that the problems are systemic rather that caused by one guy (Bill Smith) or two (pitching coach).

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    What really is the point in rehashing all that has been wrong with the various Twins starters this season?   With the exception of Hughes they have all led to the highest starters ERA in all of MLB.   No point in bringing back any of them as that will result in the highest starters  ERA in 2015 too.   No thanks to that in my mind, it is time to bring up the kids full scale, they can easily do just as poorly, can they not and also they will work cheap which is how the Pohlads want the organization to operated anyway, is it not?

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    Yeah, can we sub "talent" for "depth".  I am not sure what type of depth the Tigers have.  But it doesn't matter.

     

    Glad you asked.  The Twins could have drafted Kyle Lobstein in the 2012 Rule 5 draft (or traded for him like Detroit did the same day of the draft from the Mets, the Twins chose yet another reliever in Ryan Pressly, instead, but they could have also contacted someone to draft Lobstein for them in a pre-arranged trade, as the Tigers did***).  The Twins had not one, but two chances (in February and again in March of 2013) to claim Todd Redmond, for free.  Both of these two aren't super-talented, but would have looked pretty good as candidates for 5th/Spot Starter status (there were some of us that said so at the time of their availability, I never understand why the Twins don't look to bolster their depth options with more of these no-risk moves.  Clearly, what they're doing now isn't working, throwing Swarzak out there is an embarrassment).

     

    *** The Tigers have pretty good prospect pitching depth, three guys who they might not be able to protect in the Rule 5 are young, hard-throwing RPs, Jose Valdes, Melvin Mercedes and Angel Nesbitt.

    Edited by jokin
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    Late to the discussion - but I'll agree with the notion that Pelfrey isn't a viable starter any longer. I do think that he can provide value in a bullpen role. Either as a longman (Swarzak) or even a set up guy (Burton). Out of the pen, he may be able to add 1 to 2 MPH to his fastball and still be a viable arm for the Twins.

     

     

    I'm not ready to cut free of Pelfrey just yet. However, if he comes out of spring training looking every bit as hittable, then the Twins should knock him off the 40 man and cut their losses.

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    Not to resurrect an old thread, but I just saw this nugget in today's Gardy article:

     

     

    Gardenhire was raised in Okmulgee, Okla., population 17,000, a place he called “a good ‘ol boy town.’’

     

    Gardenhire took on Minnesota ties long before joining the Twins organization. Playing semipro ball in Wichita, Kan. during his college years, he met his future wife, Carol Kissling, who was from White Bear Lake. The two were ecstatic when the Twins traded for Gardenhire before the 1987 season, his wife seeing a chance to return home.

     

    That makes at least two connections between Pelf and Gardy (not to mention both had fathers in the air force, although Pelfrey was separated from his father at a young age).

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    That is interesting - maybe with a different manager, Pelfrey gets the same opportunity, but perhaps will have to be better than he was in the spring of 2014 to make the rotation in 2015. A new manager and new pitching coach just makes Pelfrey's future murkier.

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    Pelfrey is under contract and relatively has zero value in the trade market.  Thus trading him is probably impossible at this point.  There is no harm in bringing him into camp and attempt to use him as a reliever.  If he looks good, cool, throw him in the pen and he could be a trade deadline piece.  If he struggles or is simply beat out, then DFA/waive him.   Makes no sense to cut bait now.

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    2015

    Hughes

    Nolosco

    Gibson

    May

    Meyer

     

    Sorry Pelfrey, no room

     

     

    Agreed.  Will someone please tell Ryan this? Forget all the fringe #5 junkballers on the market.  Just let May and Meyer start for goodness sake.  Either way you look at it the Twins are going to have to go through the transition anyways.  Just get it over with.  Both these youngsters are already 24/25.

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