When the Twins Go Buying ... Who Are They Selling?

USAFChief · May 24, 2019

I would definitely trade that for Scherzer. Not sure Washington would accept.

His contract is a mess too. Most of that money is deferred. I'm not sure the Twins (or many other teams) would want to take on deferred money... and there's $105m of his contract that is deferred.

It would be a fun thought exercise though.

The deferred money is his 2019-2021 contract salary.

He's owed $35M in each of 2019, 2020, and 2021, but those salaries are deferred, without interest, to $15M in each of 2022 thru 2028.

It actually makes the contract cheaper in real dollars (tomorrow's money worth less than today) and easier to swallow year to year.

It'd be no fun to pay him $15M a year for 7 years, but it's not a huge amount per year.

And it might lower the price in terms of prospects.

KFEY93 · May 24, 2019

I hope Washington can be talked into dealing Scherzer. That team is about a bad week from being blown up, IMO.

But that will require at least one of the A list Twins prospects. And I'd do that in a heartbeat.

I would crap my Pants if we got Scherzer. That bumps everyone down in the rotation and moves Pineda to the pen. That type of pitching along with our offense...look out MLB. We would match up with Houston quite well.

Otto von Ballpark · May 24, 2019

Scherzer's situation is complicated. He is under contract for two more years yet has 7yr, $105M from 2022-2028 in deferred salary. I don't know what kind of value with that kind of financial commitment hanging over his head.

I would definitely trade that for Scherzer. Not sure Washington would accept.

His contract is a mess too. Most of that money is deferred. I'm not sure the Twins (or many other teams) would want to take on deferred money... and there's $105m of his contract that is deferred.

It would be a fun thought exercise though.

According to Cot's, the deferred money in Scherzer's deal is simply his 2019-2021 salaries ($35 mil each year, $105 mil total, deferred without interest to be paid over 2022-2028), so that's not too bad.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league/washington-nationals/

But he also has signing bonus installments due. $7.5 mil yet this year, and $15 mil in each of 2020-2021, so $37.5 mil. I'm guessing Washington would have to take on most of that, as it was largely used to suppress his early year salaries.

"for luxury-tax purposes, Scherzer’s annual salary is $28,689,376" so I could see that as the baseline expectation for any deal -- the acquiring team takes on 3/84 or so (less the first half this year, I guess).

Otto von Ballpark · May 24, 2019

The deferred money is his 2019-2021 contract salary.

He's owed $35M in each of 2019, 2020, and 2021, but those salaries are deferred, without interest, to $15M in each of 2022 thru 2028.

It actually makes the contract cheaper in real dollars (tomorrow's money worth less than today) and easier to swallow year to year.

It'd be no fun to pay him $15M a year for 7 years, but it's not a huge amount per year.

And it might lower the price in terms of prospects.

Beat me to the punch!

Edit: although I disagree with your last line, as I don't think this would lower the prospect price.

Edited May 24, 2019 by spycake

scottz · May 24, 2019

Sorry, by "their guys" I meant the previous FO's guys. (Darn pronouns!)

Despite all the issues with the previous FO, they assembled a talented collection of ballplayers, and I think the current FO recognizes that as much as anyone.

To the extent this factor could even be a tiebreaker, say between Thorpe and Smeltzer, I'm guessing it's not worth holding up a deal over it.

Their guys, not their guys, they're all our guys until they become someone else's guys.

You may be right. And as noted, depending on who they are trading for, they obviously would have to include bigger and/or different chips than whoever is on their preferred list of trade candidates. In any case, we'll never know who they really wanted to trade or keep, only who they did trade or keep.

Otto von Ballpark · May 24, 2019

FWIW, Scherzer's deal does NOT contain any no-trade protection -- but he will gain full no-trade rights as a 10-and-5 player at the end of the 2019 season.

So if they want to trade him, there might be some impetus to get a deal done during the 2019 season.

Mike Sixel · May 24, 2019

If I was a betting man, I think they'll trade for Mike Minor, and not one of the big names being thrown around.

scottz · May 24, 2019

I would crap my Pants if we got Scherzer.

That seems like unnecessary fanaticism.

ChrisKnutson · May 24, 2019

As long as we’re not going after Scherzer or Syndergard, the FO should be able to reasonably improve the team without giving up any of Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Balazovic, Larnach, Miranda, Duran, and Javier; all of which I’d view as untouchables (not all for the same reasons though) Look, I get that this Twins team is shaping up to be a historical one, but there’s no doubt in my mind that this is just the beginning. Which is why I wouldn’t put all my eggs in the 2019 season basket by pursuing an ace who’d likely cost us Lewis, Balazovic, Duran, and Jeffers; potentially killing the possibility of any long term success.

Personally, the most expensive pitcher I’d target would be Stroman, not only because I believe he’d be a perfect addition to this team in more ways than just his performance, but because he also wouldn’t put a major dent in our farm system either.

Vanimal46 · May 24, 2019

If I was a betting man, I think they'll trade for Mike Minor, and not one of the big names being thrown around.

He wouldn't be a bad acquisition either... And a lot more realistic to think about than Scherzer. But it's fun to dream!

markos · May 24, 2019

According to Cot's, the deferred money in Scherzer's deal is simply his 2019-2021 salaries ($35 mil each year, $105 mil total, deferred without interest to be paid over 2022-2028), so that's not too bad.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league/washington-nationals/

But he also has signing bonus installments due. $7.5 mil yet this year, and $15 mil in each of 2020-2021, so $37.5 mil. I'm guessing Washington would have to take on most of that, as it was largely used to suppress his early year salaries.

"for luxury-tax purposes, Scherzer’s annual salary is $28,689,376" so I could see that as the baseline expectation for any deal -- the acquiring team takes on 3/84 or so (less the first half this year, I guess).

Yeah, I think this is right. And a lot will depend on how much salary Washington is willing to eat. And I feel like the structure of the contract disadvantages the Twins quite a bit. Having a deferred $15M for the next 7 seasons is a rounding error for big market teams like Boston, NYY, LAD, etc. But it is over 10% of the Twins yearly budget.

Mike Sixel · May 24, 2019

As long as we’re not going after Scherzer or Syndergard, the FO should be able to reasonably improve the team without giving up any of Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Balazovic, Larnach, Miranda, Duran, and Javier; all of which I’d view as untouchables (not all for the same reasons though) Look, I get that this Twins team is shaping up to be a historical one, but there’s no doubt in my mind that this is just the beginning. Which is why I wouldn’t put all my eggs in the 2019 season basket by pursuing an ace who’d likely cost us Lewis, Balazovic, and Duran; potentially killing the possibility of any long term success.

Personally, the most expensive pitcher I’d target would be Stroman, not only because I believe he’d be a perfect addition for this team in more ways than just his performance, but because he also wouldn’t put a major dent in our farm system either.

They can make the team better w/o giving up their top 7-10 prospects?

Also, this is a bird in hand situation....everything is going well, and the players are healthy. That doesn't happen every year, how many years were Mauer and Morneau healthy and great together? If you aren't willing to strike this year, you never will be.

Otto von Ballpark · May 24, 2019

Washington is in a similar spot as the Mets, though -- even if the team is under-performing now, they're absolutely built to win in the near future. Rendon is a pending FA, but they still have Soto, Robles, Strasburg, Corbin, the aforementioned Scherzer, and even Doolittle is controlled for 2020.

If they deal Scherzer, I have to imagine it's for an elite return.

diehardtwinsfan · May 24, 2019

I guess it depends. Not sure I'd give up Rortvedt... but that has more to do with scarcity in the system at C than it is my love for him as a prospect. I'd personally be a bit leery of getting rid of Blazovich.

I can understand Lewis and Graterol. I think, however, that Kirilloff should be available. Great hitting prospect in all, but if he was the center piece for an ace, I'd do it and not think too hard about it.

I think in all, I'd trade most people if the price was right.

I also think some of our AAA pitching will go as 2nd/3rd pieces. Part of that is a 40 man crunch and part is not having room for them in the next year or two.

Vanimal46 · May 24, 2019

Washington is in a similar spot as the Mets, though -- even if the team is under-performing now, they're absolutely built to win in the near future. Rendon is a pending FA, but they still have Soto, Robles, Strasburg, Corbin, the aforementioned Scherzer, and even Doolittle is controlled for 2020.

If they deal Scherzer, I have to imagine it's for an elite return.

I don't doubt it's going to take an elite return. For the Twins, I think this is the year to offer the elite return and go for it. Like Mike mentioned a couple of posts ago, it's not often everyone is producing and healthy. The future is bright, but injury/league adjustments can happen unexpectedly, dimming the bright future lights.

Otto von Ballpark · May 24, 2019

Yeah, I think this is right. And a lot will depend on how much salary Washington is willing to eat. And I feel like the structure of the contract disadvantages the Twins quite a bit. Having a deferred $15M for the next 7 seasons is a rounding error for big market teams like Boston, NYY, LAD, etc. But it is over 10% of the Twins yearly budget.

Wouldn't the Twins just set the money aside now, and pay him out of that stash over those 7 years? If not just convert it to present-day salaries, with the player's agreement. The key is that it's not deferred money on top of big present day money -- it's deferred money in lieu of any present day money.

Even the signing bonus installments -- thinking about it more, I wonder if Washington is simply obligated to pay that anyway. They signed the contract, and specifically not considered his annual salary.

USAFChief · May 24, 2019

Yeah, I think this is right. And a lot will depend on how much salary Washington is willing to eat. And I feel like the structure of the contract disadvantages the Twins quite a bit. Having a deferred $15M for the next 7 seasons is a rounding error for big market teams like Boston, NYY, LAD, etc. But it is over 10% of the Twins yearly budget.

Well, $105M over three years disadvantages a lot of teams, including the Twins.

But the structure of that $105M actually makes it easier to deal with, not harder. They don't have to defer his salary if they don't want to. Take $33M and put in in the bank in 2020 and 2021, add what's left this year ($20M ?) and his deferred salary is covered.

edit: ninja'd. now we're even.

USAFChief · May 24, 2019

I think that Lewis, Kirilloff and Graterol would be the first three players teams ask about.

If the Reds call offering Luis Castillo, then yeah, these names have to be in play.

But I'd be shocked if Lewis gets moved in any deal.

-AND-

I think the Twins can add a significant piece(s) without moving their top prospects.

I don't want them at add "significant piece(s)."

I want them to add the first guy in the playoff rotation, and/or the last guy to pitch with a lead.

I want a guy to match up with the Verlanders of the world, and a guy the other team ain't coming back on in the ninth.

diehardtwinsfan · May 24, 2019

The Scherzer thing is an accounting thing. If he's at 35M/year between now and 2021, then they are taking on roughly 85-90M of that contract. The issue is who pays which deferments and when. That's really not that big of a deal. The question is what prospect package would the nats need to take that? Unless they plan on eating a good chunk of that cash, I'm not sure he's going to cost too much in terms of prospects... yes, we'd have to send some their way, but I don't think we'd be emptying the farm.

Dman · May 24, 2019

I think if I am the Twins I am shopping all the prosptects that are a year away from the rule V draft and seeing what kind of talent they can get with that. If it is not good enough then start figuring out what it is going to take to get what they want. Good deals can be struck in a variety of ways.

I think the Twins have some interesting players at AAA for other teams. Raley's numbers look MLB worthy to me. I think Wade has a real good chance as well. Gordon is a bit of a wild card but he is a former 1st round pick that has hit pretty well all the way through the system just has had trouble staying consistent the entire year. Rooker would be on the table for me as well but I doubt his value is very high. Cave has some question marks but seems like a good bet to be at least a 4th outfielder if not better. So those are all guys I would look at moving and see what you could get. I agree Larnach and Wander could be included as well as they seem like depth right now.

The four guys I would least like to give up are Kirilof, Lewis, Balazovich and Graterol. For me pretty much everyone else is in play. Would kind of hurt to lose Miranda, Baddoo and Rortvedt as well but I could live with losing one of the three. We should have another good draft ahead of us so this should be a good time to trade some talent. We can't keep them all anyway might as well get something we can use for some of them.

MMMordabito · May 24, 2019

Personally, the most expensive pitcher I’d target would be Stroman, not only because I believe he’d be a perfect addition to this team in more ways than just his performance, but because he also wouldn’t put a major dent in our farm system either.

No Stroman ... Don't need Captain Eggshell Ego in the clubhouse

Jeremy Nygaard · May 24, 2019

I don't want them at add "significant piece(s)."

I want them to add the first guy in the playoff rotation, and/or the last guy to pitch with a lead.

I want a guy to match up with the Verlanders of the world, and a guy the other team ain't coming back on in the ninth.

You want them to add a #1 pitcher and/or a closer...

but don't want a "significant piece"?

I'd say those are the most significant pieces they'd be looking to add... and the most costly.

SomeGuy · May 24, 2019

I hope Washington can be talked into dealing Scherzer. That team is about a bad week from being blown up, IMO.

But that will require at least one of the A list Twins prospects. And I'd do that in a heartbeat.

I don't see Washington going into a full rebuild or seriously considering a trade for any of their core pitchers. They might sell the expiring contracts of guys like Rendon, Dozier, Kendrick and probably Doolittle (who the Twins could use).

With Rendon as the only good player that they lose after this season, they will probably just regroup and try again next season. They should have at least 30M coming off the books, decline Zimmerman's option and its 50M. They could build a good team with that, especially since they won't have many glaring needs. Replace or resign Rendon and do something about the bullpen.

Since their best offensive player, Trea Turner, returned from injury their offense is ranked 11th in WAR and wRC+. On the season they are 10th in pitching WAR. This is a great team on paper and might not even be out of the race this season. They have the makings to be a great team next season too, no need to blow things up.

Edited May 24, 2019 by SomeGuy

Jeremy Nygaard · May 24, 2019

The Scherzer thing is an accounting thing. If he's at 35M/year between now and 2021, then they are taking on roughly 85-90M of that contract. The issue is who pays which deferments and when. That's really not that big of a deal. The question is what prospect package would the nats need to take that? Unless they plan on eating a good chunk of that cash, I'm not sure he's going to cost too much in terms of prospects... yes, we'd have to send some their way, but I don't think we'd be emptying the farm.

I figured for 2 2/3 years, the Twins should pay for 2 2/3 of the 7 years contract, which would be about $80m. Take on the $7.5 payment this year, the $15m the next two and $6m in each year from '22-'28.

The cost would likely be the pitcher the Nationals want, the hitter the Nationals want and the another top 10 prospect...maybe the Twins get one veto.

Kirilloff, Graterol/Balazovic, Javier... seems... maybe a little light?

MMMordabito · May 24, 2019

Remember when either Gordon or Gonsalves, but not both, was a position. It's funny how prospect stock changes.

Mike Sixel · May 24, 2019

Remember when either Gordon or Gonsalves, but not both, was a position. It's funny how prospect stock changes.

Outside Twin's Daily, I don't recall most websites loving Gonsalves........but it should remind everyone why "untouchable" or "can't fail" or "worst case he's helpful" just isn't true....

Otto von Ballpark · May 24, 2019

The Scherzer thing is an accounting thing. If he's at 35M/year between now and 2021, then they are taking on roughly 85-90M of that contract. The issue is who pays which deferments and when. That's really not that big of a deal. The question is what prospect package would the nats need to take that? Unless they plan on eating a good chunk of that cash, I'm not sure he's going to cost too much in terms of prospects... yes, we'd have to send some their way, but I don't think we'd be emptying the farm.

I'm not sure I understand? Scherzer has been 1st or 2nd (and deservedly so) on the last 3 Cy Young ballots. He's one of the best pitchers in baseball right now, presently healthy and demonstrably durable.

Why wouldn't he cost a lot in terms of prospects? Unless he was owed like $50+ mil a year, I'm not sure the money really matters here. I get that theoretically, at $35 mil a year, he should cost less in terms of prospects than what Boston gave up for Sale a few years ago -- but Washington's not dealing him based on that. If the return is less than Sale's, they almost certainly just hang on to Scherzer.

Shaitan · May 24, 2019

Isn't this question backwards? When you're trying to buy, the selling is the one who sets the price.

Mike Sixel · May 24, 2019

Isn't this question backwards? When you're trying to buy, the selling is the one who sets the price.

You can set any price you want, but it's negotiated......so, not sure I get your post?

This post also touches on the relative value of the available (?) players, which is kind of important in this work....

Edited May 24, 2019 by Mike Sixel

ChrisKnutson · May 24, 2019

They can make the team better w/o giving up their top 7-10 prospects?

Also, this is a bird in hand situation....everything is going well, and the players are healthy. That doesn't happen every year, how many years were Mauer and Morneau healthy and great together? If you aren't willing to strike this year, you never will be.

I get what you mean, but cmon now, you don’t think any of Jeffers, Baddoo, Gordon, Rortvedt, Severino, Gonsalves, Thorpe, Blankenhorn, Alcala, Celestino, Enlow, Arraez, Cave, and Rooker could bring back anything that would substantially improve this team??

Our window pretty wide open, which means I’d definitely pursue better quality than one start from Jaime Garcia, but I’d also like to hold on to some of our top 10, which would give us the flexibility to improve our team next offseason and next season’s deadline. I mean, despite being WS contenders for the past 2 seasons, the Astros have still managed to hold onto Kyle Tucker, Forrest Whitley, J.B. Bukaukas, Yordan Alvarez, and Corbin Martin, why can’t we, at the very least, hold onto Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Balazovic, Larnach, and Duran for now?

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