What To Do With Phil Hughes?

To all those who ranted and raved during the game (including Bert Blyleven) about Paul Molitor's awful decision, I must say that when you are sitting on your couch you do not know the facts of what is happening in between the lines. Sometimes it is best not to have a opinion until the facts are in. And the funny thing about facts, they are seldom all the way in. In other words, I suggest to certain TD members: R-E-L-A-X (to quote Aaron Rodgers).

To all those who ranted and raved during the game (including Bert Blyleven) about Paul Molitor's awful decision, I must say that when you are sitting on your couch you do not know the facts of what is happening in between the lines. Sometimes it is best not to have a opinion until the facts are in. And the funny thing about facts, they are seldom all the way in. In other words, I suggest to certain TD members: R-E-L-A-X (to quote Aaron Rodgers).

Why isn't he on the DL?

He doesn't get to have it both ways, sorry.

If he's healthy enough to start, he should be expected to go 100+ pitches. If not, he should be on the DL, period.

I mean, is he trying to tough it out because we are in a pennant race?

How can so many Twins pitchers have arm or shoulder fatigue so early in the season?

It's pretty clear the training staff or techniques need to change.

Is this club still adamantly against long toss for its pitchers?

I told my boss I was feeling pretty tired and to send me home at noon. I was told to stfu and get back to work.

Seriously? And if only Tori Hunter had been in the dugout, he would have told Hughes the same thing your boss told you, right? Get a grip Tom Hanson.

I think he should go to the pen. I would understand shutting him down and giving that a shot

 

As long as he can still pitch, but he's just getting less velocity and getting fatigued faster, it's probably best for him to try learning how to pitch through it.  Perhaps out of the pen.

If he's going to pitch through it, it kind of has to be in the bullpen.  I mean without those rockets being hit at people, or some great defensive plays, where does his 75 pitches take him? Maybe into the 5th?  5, 2, 4 the number of innings he's given them the previous 3 starts.  

I don't see how letting him continue to start games helps them in the short, or long term.  And apparently the manager still has playoff aspirations, yet is starting someone who can't exceed 75 pitchers (and frankly hasn't been any bit effective with those 75 before last night)

12 MM a year to be a bullpen guy?  Another great deal for our GM for Life

I mean, the article above literally laid out why the deal made sense at the time. Just because something doesn't work out doesn't make it a bad decision.

I heard that Hughes told the coaches he was getting a little fatigued and that they should keep an eye on him. Getting fatigued after 6 innings and 70 pitches is worrisome no matter how you slice it. Maybe just one night, maybe not. He also has a history of not wanting to stay in games, which would be another concern.

What is this history? I have no concept of what you're talking about.

I think it's actually pretty admirable that he didn't do the typical tough guy act and stay in a game as he became ineffective. He communicated his health with the team and that may help him in the long run. We've seen too many guys pitch badly through pain and hurt the team. Phil Hughes was a class act not to pitch the extra 1/3 of an inning in 2014 and he's a class act to put the team ahead of himself here.

I think he should go to the pen. I would understand shutting him down and giving that a shot

Opens up opportunities for some young starters too. And if it works out long term, that gives you another rotation spot for the Gonsalves/Jorge/Stewart/Jay/Thorpe generation that should be sniffing the majors by the middle of next year.

Yeah $12 million is a lot to spend on a bullpen arm but if he can be an okay setup guy we can live with that - especially with cheap young pitching. That control should be nice out of the pen in tight mid-inning situations.

Rotation end of next year:

Santana

Berrios

Duffey

Gibson?

Meyer?

Gonsalves/Jorge/Stewart/Jay/Thorpe?

I can live with that. Hughes going to the pen due to injury might turn out a good thing in the long run.

The favorable terms of Hughes' deal made it palatable to even those who felt he was very unlikely to repeat his sterling results from that first season with the Twins. His average annual salary in the reconfigured contract was less than $12 million, which is roughly the going rate for an average mid-rotation starter in free agency. With his pinpoint command and his history of missing bats at a reasonable clip, he seemed like almost a sure bet to at least maintain at that level, even if his historically incredible strikeout-to-walk ratio was bound to normalize a bit.


 

His contract extension was $42 million and 3 years.  It's a bit disingenuous to call it under $12 million / year.  The 1st contract was good.  The extension was potentially the worst decision (of many) that Terry Ryan has made in 5 years

His contract extension was $42 million and 3 years.  It's a bit disingenuous to call it under $12 million / year.  The 1st contract was good.  The extension was potentially the worst decision (of many) that Terry Ryan has made in 5 years

I dunno. He got paid mid-rotation money when he was coming off a season where he was a legitimate ace. He was young and was a good prospect finally finding his legs and pitching like scouts long though he could. If he was a #1/#2 starter for the contract it was a great deal but he only had to be a #3/#4 starter for it to make sense. I remember the reaction from press and on TD being, "Huh, that's a pretty fair deal for both sides. I hope it works out."

Hindsight is 20-20 and it's easy to call this a terrible decision now but I think that's misguided. Sometimes a move doesn't work out and it's tempting to reflexively call it bad but we need to be wise enough to look back at the context in which it was made.

I dunno. He got paid mid-rotation money when he was coming off a season where he was a legitimate ace. He was young and was a good prospect finally finding his legs and pitching like scouts long though he could. 

He had just finished his 8th Major League season, and 1st above avg one as a starter. And had TWO years left on his deal. 

There's nothing hindsight about it, the context was clear at the time, and now.  They paid for the 2014 season (EVEN THOUGH THERE WAS TWO YEARS LEFT), while ignoring 2007-2013

I agree that they should shut him down. Might as well have him healthy next year. This is really the product of a much bigger problem though. The Twins seem to like to sign contracts with players after career years. Mauer, Suzuki, Hughes, and Dozier come to mind. That's just bad business. Hell, I avoid taking players in fantasy baseball after they have a career year. The Twins are not a team that can afford to overpay for players.

He had just finished his 8th Major League season, and 1st above avg one as a starter. And had TWO years left on his deal. 

 

There's nothing hindsight about it, the context was clear at the time, and now.  They paid for the 2014 season (EVEN THOUGH THERE WAS TWO YEARS LEFT), while ignoring 2007-2013

Who cares if he was in the bigs for 8 years or 3? He was 28, an age when baseball players frequently hit their prime. If there’s ever a good time to sign a pitcher to a five year deal, that’s it.

You don't make an awful point about the larger picture but you're losing the context because you're all hindsight-focused. Phil Hughes was an elite prospect who had trouble putting it all together (much like Jake Arrieta). He had flashes of dominance as a starter and reliever but finally put it together. It wasn’t smoke and mirrors either – his FIP was lower at 2.65 and he’d made fundamental changes to how he pitched that spoke to a pitcher on the rise.

You can make a good argument that they should have just played out the two years on his deal but sometimes you have to take a gamble. The reward (a potential ace or very good #2 pitcher for #4 starter money) was worth the risk. It’s easy to forget because we’re looking at the worst-case scenario of any free agent signing (injuries which are bad enough to make a guy suck but not so bad that he just doesn’t pitch) but the floor for Phil Hughes seemed pretty good. He seemed like at worst a #4 pitcher, just what you’d be paying him. And by all reports he’s a good character guy, someone your young pitchers could learn from. He also had extra value because he has experience pitching out of the pen in a high leverage role if you need to shift him later in the contract.

But the biggest reason it wasn’t a bad deal was that if you're the Twins, chances to lock down a potential ace for an extra two years don't come around every day. They don't sign the Lesters and Hamels of this world. The Twins found a prospect who was putting it together and made a reasonable double down with low risk and high reward. Just because it didn’t work out (no one could predict that he would lose velocity at age 29 and start to not even seem like a starter) doesn’t make it a bad decision.

It’s easy to say in hindsight that the extension was terrible but we need to remember the context it was signed it. It was a reasonable gamble and the contract isn’t going to cripple the Twins going forward. It sucks it hasn’t worked out but Hughes was not a terrible decision.

Good catching me on that. Maybe he doesn't have a documented history but that is certainly my impression of him from following ballgames since he got here. I want pitchers who want to take the ball, or take the post, as Ryan likes to say in interviews.

I think the OP made a pretty strong case that this is a trend with Hughes and that it's on the Twins to determine how he can help us win games.

Class Act for turning down the bonus. If sacrificing that 1/3 inning was part of the consideration for the Twins offering him that big extension, I'd say he came out ahead.

I agree it's a trend but I don't think it's a trend of him not wanting to finish games or not being a guy who wants the ball. It's a trend of him not being healthy and trying to work through it unsuccessfully.

He's a guy who has been around for a while and has seen guys hurt themselves and the team by pushing themselves when something feels off. I've never seen Hughes pull himself from a game. He never demanded the Twins pull him last night either - he just was honest about where his body was.

As to the last part, I'm sure it played a small role for the Twins (who doesn't want a character guy like that?) but I can't think it's why Hughes made the decision. It's such a small thing it doesn't tip the balance - he's just a class act who wanted to earn what he got. I think it gives him a little leeway here.