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Of course, it turned into a lot of work. Trying to find similar contracts wasn’t easy. A lot of players sign long-term deals to eat up some arbitration years and buy out a couple of years of free agency. In the last 15 years, the Twins have done that with the following players (and some that didn’t work out as well):
- Joe Mauer – 4 years, $33 million - bought out three years of arbitration and a year of free agency.
- Torii Hunter – 4 years, $32 million – bought out two years of arbitration and two years of free agency. It included an option year that made it a five year, $42 million deal.
- Michael Cuddyer – 3 years, $24 million – bought out one year of arbitration and two years of free agency.
- Justin Morneau – 6 years, $80 million – bought out two years of arbitration and four years of free agency.
- Johan Santana – 4 years, $39.75 million – bought out two years of arbitration and two free agent years.
- Joe Nathan – 4 years, $47 million – That came after two separate two year deals.
If the Twins go that route, they can wait until after the 2019 or 2020 season to try to lock him up long term. It may make sense. The sample size and his track record will be much more telling than a 40-game sample. However, here are some recently signed deals for players who waited until they were arbitration eligible to sign long-term deals.
- Mike Trout – 6 years, $144.5 million – Trout is obviously in a world all of his own, so this would be the ceiling for a potential deal. He would have gone through his first arbitration year but instead signed the deal.
- Albert Pujols – 7 years, $100 million – This deal was almost a decade ago, but he, like Trout, should have had more MVP awards than he actually did. He avoided arbitration with this deal.
- Giancarlo Stanton – 13 years, $325 million – Stanton made $5.5 million in his first year of arbitration. The Marlins surprised many with the deal, though Stanton has an opt-out in six years, if he feels he can make more. The first six years of the deal are worth $107 million. The seven years after the opt-out would be worth $218 million.
- Ryan Howard – 3 year, $54 million – Howard set records before arbitration and made $10 million in year one of arbitration. He signed the three-year deal the next year and then got a huge deal later.
Sano has less than a year of service time. As I said earlier, there are not many examples of players who signed long-term deals with less than one year of service time.
- Evan Longoria – 6 years, $17.5 million with three option years. As I mentioned above, it turned into a nine year, $47.5 million deal. He remains with the Rays and has signed another long-term deal to stick there.
- Ryan Braun – 8 years, $45 million – Braun came up about the same time Sano did and the next offseason reached this deal. He proved to be well worth it and has signed another long-term deal.
Those two deals were made about eight years ago, and inflation and new national TV deals mean that Sano should make a bit more than they have.
Let’s play a couple of scenarios out. Let’s say that Sano becomes a perennial All- Star, maybe even an MVP candidate. Let’s estimate what he would make from year-to-year if the Twins and Sano went year-to-year.
- 2016: $550,000, 2017: $650,000, 2018: $800,000 (pre-arbitration, $2.0 million)
- 2019: $7 million, 2020: $14 million, 2021: $20 million (arbitration years, $41 million)
- That would be $43 million for six years.
At that point, he would become a free agent. He would have teams lining up for his services and $30 million annual salaries might be the starting point for negotiations.
So, after looking at the contracts of mentioned above, plus the long-term contracts of All-Stars like Andrew McCutchen, Anthony Rizzo and Paul Goldschmidt, let me try to lay out what a long-term deal could look like for Miguel Sano and the Twins.
- Pre-Arbitration – 2016: $600,000, 2017: $700,000, 2018: $1 million ($2.3 million)
- Arbitration Buy-Out – 2019: $5 million, 2020: $8 million, 2021: $12 million ($25 million)
- Free Agency Buy-Out – 2022: $18 million, 2023: $20 million, 2024: $30 million option with $8 million buyout ($46 million)
- That equates to an 8 year, $73.3 million deal, with a team option.
Why the Twins Should do this deal?
Why the Twins Should Not do this deal?
Why Miguel Sano Should do this deal?
Why Miguel Sano Should Not do this deal?
It is an interesting discussion, and likely one that we will have regarding Byron Buxton in the next year or two as well. Who knows? Maybe they’ll pull a Parise-Suter and sign equal contracts to stick around together for the next eight to ten years.
What would you do? Reach out to Sano’s agent (Rob Plummer) now, or wait a couple of years?
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