Week in Review: Break Time

Thanks for another good read on this week, Nick.  Aren’t the Twins and Detroit also tied for third?

Cringed a bit when I read your comments about trades for Kepler and Berrios.  Yes, if an offer is too good to refuse they could/should move them.  But after feeling a rebuild is necessary much of the spring, I am changing to think retooling makes more sense.  Yes, pitching needs help, lots of help.  But the place to start is keeping José.  And a lineup with Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Garver, Arraez and the two rookies can be very good.

Yes, it was Detroit.  But I loved to see some fight back in this team this week.

Thanks, as always, for the week in review, Nick.

You didn't mention Donaldson. Wonder if he might be moved, or shopped?

Guess it's goodbye to Messieurs Cruz  and Simmons.

Kepler interesting as a sleeper candidate, as you say.

I hope, and actually believe, that Berrios will finish this season as a Twin.

The team can compete again next year, at least in theory.

Love Berrios and hope the Twins keep him.  His performance yesterday was typical of his career.  Pitches great and one inning loses it inexplicably.  But worth having.  What is scary to me is the apparant multiple times he's turned down contract offers from Twins.  If they cannot sign him they need to trade him.

So far this year the rookie arms have disappointed me.  Ober might be the best of them, but you described him well and I am not impressed at this point.  I do wish we had some of the rookie RP on board to see what they have.  

I am thinking that the Twins might play 500 the second half which has two possible outcomes - we get fooled thinking everything will be okay or we will start selling and put ourselves in a position to try and race KC and Detroit back to significance. 

Interesting stretch ahead. Do you think that we will see a start from Barnes or Winder in the upcoming 6 games in 4 days stretch with the Tigers and White Sox? Detroit might not be a bad team for them to get in their first start; White Sox not so much. Might also be time to fire up the Uber and get Hamilton, Vasquez or Cano up. There willbe a time where they can replace a guy like Law or Coloumbe after they go 2 or 3 innings following a short start. Time to see what these 5 guys have.

It will also be interesting to see if we make any trades over the break or wait until late July. It's hard to trade pitching when you come out of the break with 15 games in 13 days so any trade of Pineda, Happ, Robles or Thielbar probably has to wait until month end. Still, it would create space for a AAA pitcher. I think they can trade Simmons or Cruz whenever they want if they get the right deal.  It will be interesting to see if they give Gordon games at SS after Simmons is traded, assuming he is. They've kept Gordon on the 26 man even though he hasn't been playing. I got to think that's because they intend to play him after trading Simmons either at SS or as a UTL. I'd love to see them give him a crack at SS now and then so they know going into the winter if he can play the position. They'll almost have to play him if Donaldson is traded. 

Interesting times, indeed. 

I moved a father-in-law to the retirement home in the last two months, sold his house, and had a son get married last month, so I haven't been following as closely as usual, but was impressed with what seemed like some resiliency recently. 

In total, 39-50 obviously stinks, but I'm struck that if you split that in (roughly) half, you get a 16-28 stretch over the first 44 games, followed by 45 games of playing .500 (23-22, technically). And over the last 21, they are 12-9, though five of those losses were unfortunately to Chicago.

I'm not saying that's "don't sell" territory. I'm just suggesting that the team hasn't been a complete disaster the past month and a half the way most here have suggested. Disappointing, yes, because of what preceded it, but I'd encourage folks to slowly step away from the ledge.

Put another way, if they continue at even a .500 clip the rest of the way, they end up at 76 or 77 wins. If they play 12-9 level the rest of the way, they get to, hmmm..., 81 wins.

I'm not a betting man, but I'd frankly take the over, particularly if they played out the year with this roster. 

4 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

What rookie arms? It's pretty much just Ober and Jax with MLB appearances so far this year.

You are right, I went on the team statistics and realized all the new names are retreads and bargain basement sales items. 

3 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

My guess is Jax in one of the doubleheaders, and a bullpen game in the other.

Right now Jax is listed as the probable starter for St. Paul this Wednesday July 14, which would put him in line to start again during the White Sox doubleheader on Monday July 19 on normal rest.

They'll obviously have a fully rested pen coming out of the all-star break this Friday, so that would be my guess for the bullpen game. Astudillo could come back at the 27th man if there is any lingering concern about Jeffers after he left the game yesterday. Beau Burrows would be another option, if they really wanted another pitcher.

If a 60-day IL guy (i.e. Cave) is ready by Friday, they could activate them as the 27th man too, then option someone else out after the game.

What I want and it will not happen is for Winder, Barnes, even Balazovic to get in the game.  It is time to look for the future and a BP games accomplishes nothing.  

1 hour ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

Winder has 7.2 IP at AAA so far, Barnes might not even get protected from Rule 5 this winter, and Balazovic just completed 6 innings for the first time at AA.

There is still plenty of season left for anyone deserving to get looks. Like I said upthread, I'm guessing we're not going to make any big 40-man moves until after we make our trade deadline deals.

Might be true, but it is still my wish.  What does another start by Happ mean for the future?  Who cares about Coloumbe, Law, Robles after this season?  I am not interested in a winning second half, I want a winning season.  Push the envelop.

On 7/12/2021 at 9:07 AM, Otto von Ballpark said:

 

 

Technically, Detroit is still in sole possession of third place, and the Twins are in 4th. Even after the sweep, Detroit is percentage points ahead of us at 40-51 (a .440 winning percentage) vs our 39-50 (.438).

We're both 15 games out of first, which is probably where Nick was looking. (Also both 11.5 back in the wild card.)

Technically and otherwise, accuracy is a good thing.

On 7/12/2021 at 2:17 PM, IndianaTwin said:

In total, 39-50 obviously stinks, but I'm struck that if you split that in (roughly) half, you get a 16-28 stretch over the first 44 games, followed by 45 games of playing .500 (23-22, technically). And over the last 21, they are 12-9, though five of those losses were unfortunately to Chicago.

I'll split that a bit further. First 7 games: 5-2. At that point the accursed virus infiltrated the organization, which threw the entire organization and the playing schedule into chaos. Next 37 games: 11-26. Any and every person in the organization who declined vaccination is certainly responsible at least in part for that.