WARNE: The Twins' Secret Extension Candidate

OK, so here's the deal with a potential Plouffe extension:

 

I understand why people would like to wait out the remaining two years he has in arbitration. I get that. But as a super-two, he's going to get pretty expensive even as a decent third baseman over those two years.

 

IF you wait them out and still want to sign him after that, you will then be forced to sign him to a market-level deal, which assuming he has played well will be about four years and maybe $10m AAV. 

 

Or, you can split the difference, take him until he's about 32, and play your cards after that. But if you wait it out and then want to sign him, you're not only signing him at market value, but until he's in his mid-30s. 

 

A four-year deal under $30 million carries basically no risk for the Twins here, unless he were to absolutely fall off a cliff. But if you're forecasting that, well, you know more than the team does.

I would sign him at 3-25 if we conclude Sano is not a 3B.  Otherwise, I don't neccesarily agree that this deal carries no risk for us.

Plouffe could regress. Or he could fail to transition to another postion, which would likely cause us moving one of the best prospects we have ever had to play out of position and in a position that will lower his WAR.  If he can't play LF or RF, where does he go?  If either of those things happen we will kick ourselves for having another contract that is difficult to move, or more likely another player that we play just because he has a contract

If the risk of not-signing Plouffe is that he gets more expensive....but we have all this money? So is him getting a little more expensive a huge problem?  To me, that is not as big of an issue as having another contract to deal with. 

OK, so here's the deal with a potential Plouffe extension:

 

I understand why people would like to wait out the remaining two years he has in arbitration. I get that. But as a super-two, he's going to get pretty expensive even as a decent third baseman over those two years.

 

IF you wait them out and still want to sign him after that, you will then be forced to sign him to a market-level deal, which assuming he has played well will be about four years and maybe $10m AAV. 

 

Or, you can split the difference, take him until he's about 32, and play your cards after that. But if you wait it out and then want to sign him, you're not only signing him at market value, but until he's in his mid-30s. 

 

A four-year deal under $30 million carries basically no risk for the Twins here, unless he were to absolutely fall off a cliff. But if you're forecasting that, well, you know more than the team does.

I am very skeptical that Plouffe would accept a 4-year, $30M offer. He isn't a poor pre-arb player. He's earned almost $10M in his career already. That's not quite set-for-life money, but its not a pittance, and therefore I don't think he has a dire need to exchange future earnings for security. The arbitration process basically ensures that he is locked in for at least $10M over the next two years unless he is released, and most likely he will get raises that will move him into the $15M-$20M range. If I was advising Plouffe, I would tell him to either sign a market-rate extension (at least 4 year, $40M+) with the Twins or get to free agency as quickly as possible. 

From the Twins perspective, I don't see the need for an extension at that price. There may be some need for him after the 2017 season, but in that case he should be good enough to warrant a qualifying offer. 

Regardless of whether he signs an extension or not, he'll cost around $6m next season. The point what that him signing an extension wouldn't be any hindrance to potentially signing free agents next off-season (or the next one after that).

What are we saving by extending him now?  Money over the next 2-3 years, which is not a scarce commodity.  So to me the risk is higher than the cost. 

I don't want to move Sano around, a 22 year old that we will hopefully have until he is 37 because we wanted to save a few million dollars on a 29 year old Plouffe, who was probably not going to be here very long.  This is not a franchise that is flexible to moving guys all around.  They would not even talk about Mauer moving and moved him about two years after they should have.  Then they moved him to the wrong position.  And will probably never move him again. 

It's possible he could stick either place, moving him out of fear Plouffe might be a good player seems like exactly the kind of poor thinking that has plagued this team.

Are you saying the verdict is still out on Plouffe?

I personally believe the "how expensive he will get if we don't sign him" crowd is overblowing the difference between how expensive he will get and what we are saving to give him 3-24 now ($8M a year). 

If you throw out A-Rod, here a few of the most expensive 3B out there.

Han-Ram  .874 OPS @ 22M

Beltre    .814 OPS @ $16M      4 gold gloves

Wright   .870 OPS @ $15M       2 gold gloves

Zimmerman .825 OPS @ $14M      1 gold glove

Plouffe's career OPS is .722.  If he was a free agent, I think he fetches $12M a year and he is not a free agent right now.  So we are saving $12M over three years, tops.  If we have oodles and oodles of money the next few years, why open the door for the negatives of this? 

I personally believe the "how expensive he will get if we don't sign him" crowd is overblowing the difference between how expensive he will get and what we are saving to give him 3-24 now ($8M a year). 

 

If you throw out A-Rod, here a few of the most expensive 3B out there.

 

Han-Ram  .874 OPS @ 22M

 

Beltre    .814 OPS @ $16M      4 gold gloves

 

Wright   .870 OPS @ $15M       2 gold gloves

 

Zimmerman .825 OPS @ $14M      1 gold glove

 

Plouffe's career OPS is .722.  If he was a free agent, I think he fetches $12M a year and he is not a free agent right now.  So we are saving $12M over three years, tops.  If we have oodles and oodles of money the next few years, why open the door for the negatives of this? 

Its not just that you'll be paying higher AAV if you wait, and Plouffe stays a good player. Its that you'll pay higher AAV for more years and for declining production.

Pay him now or down't pay him at all. Waiting and then paying him is the worst option.

Its not just that you'll be paying higher AAV if you wait, and Plouffe stays a good player. Its that you'll pay higher AAV for more years and for declining production.

 

Pay him now or down't pay him at all. Waiting and then paying him is the worst option.

Next off-season he is 30 and has two years of control left.  I don't see him requiring a five year deal at that point.  I don't see him saying no to 4/35.  That is basically 2/20 over what he would make in arbitration.

At that point we will have a better handle on the Sano situation.  That is only $15M more with one additional season over this hypothetical 3/24 deal.

You might be able to save a little in 2016. But you're really hoping to save in 2017 and get a year of free agency out of him.

 

You getting cost-certainty, and there's value in that if you believe he's going to be part of the solution.

Yes. But to your earlier point, we have $25M extra in 2016 and 2017.  So paying an additional few million isn't that big of a deal.  I am okay with that right now as we don't have a gun to our head forcing anything.

If he takes a 3 year deal with two individual team option years I would do it.  Because I think it then upps his trade value quite a bit (team gets to save money if he is good and move on if he is not).  But that probably doesn't make sense for Plouffe to sign.

so, basically, never extend any player that doesn't come up by 24?

I see a lot of Plouffe-specific commentary in his reasoning.

 I don't think Plouffe has the upside where that kind of cost certainty is worthwhile.

 Given the uncertainty about his position and the fact that I don't ever see him as a $15M a year player....That is my ultimate conclusion too.