Twins/Padres Finalize Deal: Rogers, Rooker to San Diego for Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan

21 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I think the Twins just did a favor to everyone who thought this team was brining home the bacon in 2022. They were never going to be a legit contender with or without Rogers. As a fan, I'd rather have that clear to start the season than holding grand illusions that will soon be dashed.

But don't get me wrong, I'm really looking forward to this year. I can't wait to see which young guys step up. Watching the talented young guys is way more enjoyable to me than watching the "crafty" vets.

I enjoy following prospects as much as anyone, but watching a successful team is always more fun than watching a few young guys break out on a bad team.

I'm not saying Rogers is the difference between a good and bad team, and my hopes for the team for this year are really just to make the expanded playoffs and maybe get on a bit of a roll to actually win a series or two.  

That is certainly still a possibility, but this trade still makes the team clearly worse in 2022 on paper, when they are clearly on the bubble of playoff contention. It's not like Paddack and Pagan will likely be crucial to the team's success in 2023 either. That will depend on successful moves next offseason and solid progress from a number of prospects or recently graduated prospects.

That's what annoys me about this trade.

30 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

You're just cherry picking stats to fit a negative take.  Look all the way to right on b-ref and you see that FIP number? That means he was having extraordinarily bad luck last year.  The Twins will have much better defense behind him than what San Diego was putting out there.

This is going to be an interesting aspect to chart this year. A quick look at SD suggest that while they weren't running out a bunch of great defenders, they weren't garbage either. Healthy the Twins should be strong up the middle with two elite defensive players manning two of the most important defensive positions in baseball. We should have good defense at 3B (Urshela is quality, Arraez is ok) and in RF (Kepler is very good) and below average defense in LF & 1B (Kirilloff & Sano are acceptable out there but not good). Jeffers is a good defensive catcher and should see most of the time. So I think it's fair to say the twins defense should be better behind Paddack this year than SD's was.

If his luck improves and the defense is better, then maybe that FIP number comes home. If it does, people are going to be happy, because he'll be pitching more like Berrios than Happ. the projection systems are a little harder to read on Paddack this year because most of them have him pitching out of the bullpen for most of the year. Fangraphs definitely likes him, though: his fWAR in 2021 was better than any Twins starter not named Jose berrios. (I will admit, I tend to prefer bWAR and Paddack was...not good under that measure. But I do think that fWAR is better at predicting future performance than it is at describing what the results were because of how they formulate it...which is promising for Paddack for 2021 performance)

Kind of a long-winded statement that comes down to "I hope Szymborski is right"

1 hour ago, TheLeviathan said:

I totally understand apprehension about dealing our most reliable reliever over the last few years for Paddock.  I really do, that's a fair reaction.

What's not fair is to consider Paddock nothing more than a "back of the rotation", "declining", etc.  That's a framework that is unfair, bordering on ridiculous.  

Chris Paddack was one of the 20 most valuable pitchers in the league (maybe top 10) prior to the pandemic.  This is a kid with serious stuff and serious chops.  He's 26, not 29 or 30.  Let's assess him for what he is: a young player who has had a stirling young career that got derailed in a weird as hell sophomore year and couldn't bounce back his third year.

This is a swing at having three controllable years of a guy with serious upside for a very good, very known quantity on an expiring deal.  Any FO that doesn't take that swing isn't doing their job.  Now the guys they hired to make that upside a reality need to do their part.

Not everyone can turn water in wine. The FO is certainly taking a swing here, but I'm not going to hold it against the field staff if Paddack hovers somewhere around his performance level the last couple seasons.

His elbow and the fact that years of control + "turning him around," are the talking points of this swap make me nervous. I'm not as devastated by Rogers departure as others seem to be. It's a future bet that puts a dent in this season's bullpen, but my expectations are incredibly low given the current state of the rotation so overall it's a big "whatever," from me. 

To sum up the last month:

Twins trade Garver: "Oh no! Now weak-hitting Ben Rortvedt is our #2 catcher? Ugggh!"

Twins trade Rortvedt: "Noooo! He was awesome defensively! Why!?!?!"

Twins get Urshela, Sanchez: "Still no shortstop, this team is cooked!"

Twins sign Correa: "Ugh, waste of money, this team still has no pitching"

Twins trade for pitching: "Season's OVER! Terrible trade!"

Good lord people.

4 hours ago, Sconnie said:

It signals to me that they aren’t satisfied with Archer and Bundy who might have a shorter leash than Happ/Shoemaker 

That would be ideal. It also makes me wonder why they're investing roughly $10M into two guys they can't wait to shove aside, especially if this season is about getting the "kids," innings. 

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

if you can trade a reliever with 1 year of control for a starter with 3 you should probably do that.

As a general rule, yes, but that's lacking some context. It's fair to question what you're controlling for those 3 years. Paddack needs to reverse the trend he's followed for the last couple years, and stay healthy. That's no small task. The Twins are in a better position to "win," this swap because of their need at SP and the relative value of SPs in comparison to RPs. 

I am torn on this trade - I really like acquiring Paddack with the upside he has, but I am somewhat worried about his health. Apparently that was a deciding factor for the Mets not acquiring him. Still, 3 cheap years of Paddack is a good get for Rogers and Rooker, especially since our FO doesn't believe in making big investments in starting pitching on the FA market.

I like the Pagan inclusion - his numbers are kinda ugly the past two years, but he was having a good 2021 until he had a bad September. I could see him starting out as the setup reliever.

I don't like the attempts being made to undermine Rogers' value - there's a reason why the Padres wanted him so much. He's a top tier reliever that I don't see regressing anytime soon, and I can see them getting an extension done with him in the next few months. I don't like how Falvine has let Pressly, Rogers, and May go and hasn't replaced them despite the idea that we are going to be a playoff contender this year. It'd be cool if Alcala and Duran could immediately step in, but I think that's wishful thinking and Rocco has always relied on veteran relievers to hold down the high leverage innings. I just don't like relying on Smith/Cotton/Coulombe to hold down important innings while we're also crossing our fingers hoping Duffey can work as a closer and Thielbar keeps crushing it.

Rooker going is absolutely fine, we didn't need him with all the 1B/DH bats we have and he does not belong in the OF. Keeping Larnach is a plus for me.

As for the rotation, I don't move Ober out. Archer has barely pitched in Spring Training and probably won't last long in the regular season and Bundy probably is going to be a 5+ ERA starter. They could roll with a 6 man rotation, but it's going to last 2 weeks at most with how frequent injuries are with MLB pitchers. 

Well, I certainly don't fear a repeat of 2021 with all of the zany moves the FO has made. We're not as reliant on the prospects as we were a month or two ago, but we still need the likes of Miranda/Winder/Larnach to make strides and cement themselves as major leaguers. I am feeling something around a .500 season with the potential for more if the young'uns step up and contribute more than we anticipate.

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

  I'm a;ll for signing Correa, but I think the Twins shou;ld have traded for Manaea, due to the weak haul the A's got for Manaea from San Diego. San Diego in effect replaced 3 years of Paddack for 1 year of Manaea and two years of Pagan for 1 year of Rogers.  Interesting.

Manaea is a league average pitcher, with one year of control for a relatively high salary. That's why the haul was low. Manaea doesn't give the Twins anything in 2022 they couldn't get from Josh Winder, except more depth. That's why the Twins didn't trade for Manaea. Paddack's ceiling is way higher (I mean, look at what he did in 2019, he was the Padres opening day starter in 2020). 

4 hours ago, sthpstm said:

Oh good, someone pushing the “cheap Pohlads” agenda. 
Too bad the Twins are sending cash to the Padres.

Yeah, there goes that benefit. 

And I'm not pushing their agenda, nor do I agree with it.  Its just a fact that the Twins effectively have to compete with their own self imposed salary cap.

4 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Gods above, thinking about a potential deadline deal before game 1 of the season? That's incredibly pessimistic about a team that's got a quality lineup and a load of young talent in the system. Do you want the Vikings to punt on first down too?

Not to mention, you would never pair up two blue chip trade pieces in a single trade.  9 times out of 10 you would get more for them in 2 separate trades.

19 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

That would be ideal. It also makes me wonder why they're investing roughly $10M into two guys they can't wait to shove aside, especially if this season is about getting the "kids," innings. 

I had a similar thought but I just don't think we are going to see Bundy/Archer used in a typical starting role.  We might see them used 3-4 innings per outing which would facilitate doing the same with Winder / Duran and others while they work their way to a more traditional role.  Bundy is $4M and Archer's base pay is $2.75M.  If they end up paying Archer significantly more, it's very likely it was a good move to bring him on.  I just hope Bundy is good enough to trade him or bad enough to cut him.  

3 hours ago, Coobelz said:

Anyone know the rules on when we find out who the PTBNL is? 

My understanding is that the PTBNL has to close within 6 months. It’s often sooner than that.

In a case like this, it’s common that the two teams have agreed on a pool of several players and the Twins will have a bit of time to do their remaining due diligence to determine which one they want.

I sometimes...ok many times do not understand what's folks want on here...heck so many wanted to punt on this season just a month ago.  No even more do?  Let's give these guys a chance.  We have a really good team.  Is it the best, probably not.  But thus team is talented and young.  Don't be a doomsday guy before the season even starts...at least wait untill May folks.  Go Twins

As some others have noted, the underlying reality here is that the rotation was/is a bigger problem than the bullpen, and a more difficult one to fix. 

The Twins likely are confident that some of their prospect arms will at least turn into solid relievers (if healthy), and also it's cheaper to acquire relievers via trade, relative to SP. 

No move is guaranteed to work but the strategy is clearly valid. They just have to execute on it.

14 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Manaea has over 700 MLB IP of sub-4 ERA but won't give you any more than Winder in 2022?

 

The faith people have here in untested prospects is humorous. 

My point was not specific to Josh Winder necessarily, just that Manaea is a league average pitcher in terms of ERA. A league average pitcher is not super difficult to replace. Ryan was better than that last year (in a small sample size, of course).