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  • Twins Will Be Active Shoppers At Trade Deadline


    Parker Hageman

    As Major League Baseball’s non-waiver trade deadline approaches, casual Minnesota Twins fans may be interested in the activity for the first time in several years. With the postseason in reach, the Twins will be active shoppers.

    On July 3rd, Twins general manager Terry Ryan joined Darren Wolfson and Chris Long on 1500ESPN. With less than a month to go, Ryan was asked what his goals at the trade deadline were. Outsiders believed the most glaring need would be the bullpen. The staff between the starters and Glen Perkins had been shaky as of late. For instance, Casey Fien, who was a late innings staple heading into the season, had been smacked around, allowing 9 runs on 15 hits in nine innings of work dating back to June 22.

    Ryan, however, said he prioritized the need for an additional bat in the lineup over a reliever.

    Image courtesy of Tim Heitman, USA Today

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    Just a day prior to his radio appearance, Miguel Sano made his major league debut in Kansas City and his impact was almost immediately felt. His zone acumen appeared advanced and when he swung, he was putting the ball back into play with significantly more velocity than when it came in. Sano's zone awareness stumbled some once teams threw more off-speed pitches in hitter's counts -- as was evident in Oakland following the All-Star break -- but rolling his ankle on a stray baseball during warm-ups was nothing short of another depressing moment in Twins- prospects-getting-injured history.

    When healthy, Sano's bat could presumably provide the lineup with the necessary thump that was lacking from the designated hitter spot and the middle of the order. In theory, the 22-year-old slugger should be ready to return to the lineup today. However, since the All-Star break the Twins have managed to score just 8 runs (only the Red Sox have scored fewer) and there are other giant holes in the lineup in dire need of an upgrade.

    Almost immediately after I posted a piece in 2014 suggesting catcher Kurt Suzuki had found the swing plane and mechanics combination to join his high-level contact rate and zone approach, he completely fell back to Earth and crashed through six miles of bedrock. For most of 2014 Suzuki found success by driving a pitch on the outer-half the other way. He hit .279 when going to right field that year. This season he is hitting just .157 as the line drives have been replaced by looping fly balls and other weak contact. In all, since August 1, 2014, Suzuki has compiled an OPS of .606, which is 40th out of 43 catchers who have caught in 60 or more games.

    One area in which Suzuki has improved in this season is his framing abilities. This was a concerted effort on the part of Suzuki along with bench coach Joe Vavra in spring training. In 2014, according to StatCorner.com, the Twins catcher cost his team 14 runs -- or a little over one win in the standings. This season his metrics are significantly improved. While he’s not an elite strike-stealer by any stretch of the imagination, he has been worth 0.1 runs above average so far in 2015. That has been a benefit to the pitching staff.

    The state of the position has declined so much in Minnesota that A.J. Pierzynski is being discussed as a viable option. While the left-handed former Twin is enjoying a rebound season with Atlanta, posting a .748 OPS which is ninth best among qualified catchers, his receiving game is a farce, costing his pitching staff almost seven runs during his stint in Georgia. That said, some combination of Suzuki and Pierzynski may actually resemble a serviceable backstop for the remainder of the season.

    RELATED: Will Twins Address Their Most Glaring Weakness?

    Meanwhile the shortstop position can only be adequately described by picturing a guy dousing himself in gasoline and lighting himself on fire.

    Similar to Suzuki, Danny Santana’s offensive approach in 2014 seemed designed to allow him to avoid prolonged slumps. His minimalist swing mechanics, quick wrists and line drive stroke surely allowed him to produce as an average shortstop at least. Instead, he became overly aggressive and expanded the zone to account for the space above both batter’s boxes as well as the strike zone. To make matter’s worse, he was a liability in the field. According to ESPN/TruMedia’s database, in 67 games Santana made 12 defensive misplays (not necessarily errors but costly blunders nonetheless) and 15 errors. The 27 defensive miscues were by far the most in the shortest amount of playing time for all shortstops. Admittedly, errors and mistakes are not the greatest measuring stick to gauge a shortstop’s performance. After all, one shortstop’s 6-3 is another’s seeing-eye single. Yet in comparison to Eduardo Escobar, who has demonstrated a much steadier hand and has shown that he can convert almost all the routine outs, Santana comes in second place.

    RELATED: Escobar Needs To Be The Everyday Shortstop

    For all of his shortcomings, Santana excels at being able to start a double-play. Obviously the prerequisite for starting double plays is having a runner on first with less than two outs (his ability to “assist” hitters to reach first safely may have played a factor). Also helpful is having a pitcher spin a ground ball. Santana has started 28 double plays, the sixth most among all shortstops. By comparison, Eduardo Nunez has started 5 while Escobar has started 4. Although a lot of double plays are reliant on the situation, there is skill involved with the timing and the feed to the base in order to set up the twin killing and Santana is fairly adept at that.

    As it stands, the Twins do need to find some much needed stability in the shortstop position. Because of this, the team has been tied to Colorado’s shortstop, Troy Tulowitzki.

    As Jeremy Nygaard wrote about yesterday, the Twins and Rockies have had some form of discussion centered around Tulowitzki. According to Nygaard, Colorado has requested either Kyle Gibson or Jose Berrios as part of any trade package and that still might not be enough to pry Tulowitzki away. As his team continues to flounder at the bottom of the National League West, the Rockies shortstop has hinted in not so many words that he would like to play for a contender. “Hopefully I can be into every single pitch and pretend like something is on the line,” he told reporters after Tuesday’s game.

    While he would be immediate superior to any of the current options, a scenario in which the Twins land him does not seem feasible. This would not only require the Twins absorbing $100 million remaining on Tulowitzki's contract but it would also require the unloading of several valuable prospects. Meanwhile the Twins would receive Tulowitzki, a 30-year-old who is elite when he is able to contribute but is frequently on the trainer's table (between 2012 and 2015, he’s missed 213 of 486 games) and has been blessed with hitting in Denver's rarefied air to increase his power numbers while the spacious confines of Coors Field inflate his batting average and on-base percentage. The Twins -- or anyone looking to trade for him -- would likely overpay for what they would get in return.

    There is little question that the shortstop position has been a mess but there does not seem to be a reason to overspend for Tulowitzki (as fun as that would be). Danny Santana has regressed so hard in his sophomore season that the world actually started rotating backwards too. Eduardo Escobar has been steadier and provided more professional at-bats this season. Overpaying for a talented shortstop does not appear too appetizing. As Nick suggested on Wednesday, simply playing Escobar in place of Santana for the remainder of the season might provide the team with a sufficient upgrade. And as Seth detailed on Tuesday, there are other shortstop options that may not come at quite the steep price as Tulowitzki would.

    As the trade deadline approaches, if Terry Ryan adheres to his previous statement of obtaining some offense, there are no two position in bigger need of an upgrade than catcher and shortstop. Neither position necessarily requires selling the farm to improve, either.

    It’s boring and unsexy but this team should exercise restraint when it comes to the trade deadline.

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    I believe the Capps trade was made to quiet Gardenhire ("I can't manage without a closer...").  Non sequitar--"nor with one".

    whatever reason, it was an easy call to say that it was a horrible and needless trade.

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    If Buxton is hurt again, thems the breaks.

     

    Notice one thing about my post: I didn't point out two of the three biggest issues on the 2015 Twins - shortstop and catcher.

     

    This team has three major glaring flaws - bullpen, catcher, shortstop. It has question marks in centerfield, the rotation (as far as the playoffs are concerned), and I'm putting the bullpen here again because it's that bad. Where the team is set with a player, they offer middling production from most of the field: first base, left field, center field, right field, DH.

     

    This isn't a team poised to get hot and thrive in a playoff environment. It's a team poised to scuffle along and barely miss or make the playoffs. If Ryan were to somehow transform this team into a solid contender, he'd have to trade half the farm and swing 4-5 deals just to get the Twins to the level of the Angels or Royals.

     

    This isn't the 2010 Twins that were an incredibly solid team from front to back. It's not a surprising but sustainable team like the 2002 team. Hell, it's not even the rounded but flawed 2006 squad.

     

    The 2015 Twins are closer to the 2001 Twins than any other team in recent memory and that's not a team you bank on down the stretch. You shore up minor issues without giving up much, hope a few things break right, and don't get too upset if they don't.

     

    And I thought I was rough on this team......

     

    I don't see how you think they can possibly compete next year either, frankly, since there are no catchers or SS available in FA, and they aren't signing an ACE.

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    I think they are going to make a few trades for a bullpen arm or two.  I don't think they'll be big names and I don't think it'll cost a lot. That's pretty much all I see happening.  I would love to see them trade for a catcher, but I don't think they will be willing to give up enough for a guy like Lucroy.  

     

    My guess is we'll see an AJ reunion.  

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    And I thought I was rough on this team......

     

    I don't see how you think they can possibly compete next year either, frankly, since there are no catchers or SS available in FA, and they aren't signing an ACE.

    They need a catcher. They need a shortstop. They need a bullpen.

     

    Catcher needs to be found externally. It will be a massive failure of that isn't fixed by February.

     

    Shortstop probably needs to be found externally. That's why I'm not 100% against Tulo.

     

    The bullpen should have had open auditions two months ago. I think that has a chance to be fixed internally and by picking up a decent vet.

     

    The rotation... Well, cross your fingers on Meyer and Berrios. I don't see how else it will get fixed. Having a full season of Santana should help somewhat. He's not amazing but as a third starter, he should be okay.

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    whatever reason, it was an easy call to say that it was a horrible and needless trade.

     

    The Span trade is starting to look more and more like a bad deal.  Interesting how the Nats have managed to burn the Twins twice now.  Think they knew something our front office didn't about Alex Meyer, specifically related to self confidence & control issues. 

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    The Span trade is starting to look more and more like a bad deal.  Interesting how the Nats have managed to burn the Twins twice now.  Think they knew something our front office didn't about Alex Meyer, specifically related to self confidence & control issues. 

    IMO, the reasoning behind the Span trade was sound.  The execution was bad.

    Edited by jimmer
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    To me, it's clear that the Twins are in a "win now" attitude:  1)  The purpose of signing Hunter  2)keeping Escobar in the line-up someplace 3) the promotion of Buxton and Sano this season rather than delaying until next season which would have extended "team control" 4) keeping Arcia (and others) in the minors rather than "one last chance" him before placing others ahead of him (them) on the "List".  All of these point to "Win Now"--therefore continue with that theme and acquire some real veteran talent and "roll with them".

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    I agree, This team isn't one player away from real contention, it's 3-4 players away and that's assuming Sano, Rosario and Hicks all continue to perform at their present level or better. Now is not the time to make a multi-player prospect offer to get a TT or similar player.  The original plan shouldn't change - keep feeding younger players into the roster (Buxton and Berrios this year plus those already here and Arcia) and let them get a taste of meaningful games. I'm usually all in favor of making a trade to get the short term player who might take you over the top because opportunities don't come along very often. hat works if you're 1-2 players away and above average to strong everywhere else. That is not this team. 

    I don't think they need 3-4 players to make the playoffs but obviously they're not going to blow up their farm system even if there are 3-4 available guys out there that they want anyway.  Trading a couple prospects to give yourself a chance in the now is not necessarily going to derail the future. They've got a lot of young talent.

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    I guess my thinking isn't that they need 3-4 players to make the playoffs as a wild card, but they need 3-4 players to be a real contender if they get into the playoffs. They just don't have the horses yet. I have nothing against trading away a couple of prospects but I don't think they will get much for the ones they are willing to trade; at least not enough to meaningfully impact this year.

    The only names I've heard so far that I'd be good w/ them trading top prospects for are Tulo and Lucroy but sounds like the Brewers want a bevy of prospects for Lucroy and the Tulo deal doesn't sound real likely either so you're probably right about your last bit. And a WS is unlikely but the first step is making the playoffs.

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    Mostly disagree....they have banked these wins. Casting them aside, on the hope that next year will be better......that's how you pretty much never win. Because next year you do the same thing....and then next year again. At some point, you try to win.

     

    If they are supposed to stand still this year, what's different next year that makes you think they'll be looking at this many wins at the ASB?

    They will have E Santana and Sano for the first half that didn't this year.  Buxton will also probably be there for the first half.  It be Hughes alternating "good" year. ( just kidding on that one).  Players like Schafer and Robinson will have been replaced by players like Rosario and Hicks.  Berrios has a good chance to make the rotation.  Lots of reasons to think the team will be better next year.

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    They will have E Santana and Sano for the first half that didn't this year.  Buxton will also probably be there for the first half.  It be Hughes alternating "good" year. ( just kidding on that one).  Players like Schafer and Robinson will have been replaced by players like Rosario and Hicks.  Berrios has a good chance to make the rotation.  Lots of reasons to think the team will be better next year.

     

    so they'll be more than 9 games over .500 at the ASB?

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    Experiment - bring up the young players and rotate them through the rest of the season, see if someone develops the hot hand that Santana had last year - Polanco? 

     

    The catchers are either going to cost too much of the future or be a step back (A J ) and we do not need another old Twin reunion.  We have Suzuki and mediocre back up, but hopefully we will develop something before the contract for Suz is up.

     

    I am not big on trading from the stable of prospects.  I would not mind Gibson for Tulo since Gibson is more likely to regress than star, but Berrios is a big NO.

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    I have come around on the Tulowitzki thing thinking he can help us as he would be energized by playing for something everyday and I think the players on the squad would be excited about it.

    I  do not thing the Twins have the players to make the deal but if I was going to do a deal, I would be willing to part with Kyle Gibson, Eddie Rosario, Alex Meyers, and Max Keplar or Danny Santana as the base of the deal if the Rockies are willing to pay some of the salary of Tuowitzki for players with that much service time and team control left. One young starter, one young outfielder a potential first baseman and relief pitcher, that would be about the top of the mark for what this team can probably afford to part with to fill the short stop spot.  To me when your in a playoff race you do what it takes to stay there and remain a contender not hope two or three years from now you have a shot.

    Nothing is promised tomorrow not even today, so if you have a chance to go for it you better give it your best shot. I doubt the Twins ownership has the stomach to take on that much money from Tulowitzki though, they have never blown the budget once in there history in a go for it mode. 

    Tulowitzki would be the bullet like Shannon Stewart was in the line-up that could help this team. If he is going anywhere though I doubt it will be to the Minnesota Twins.

    Remind me how far we got with Shannon Stewart on the team?

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    so they'll be more than 9 games over .500 at the ASB?

     

    I've seen you bring up the banked wins and 9 over at the ASB, but I really think there's more than just looking 1 number.

    Twins records by month:

    April 10-12

    May 20-7

    June 11-17

    July 9-7

     

    They had a great month in May, in the other 3 months combined they are under 500 though.  You can keep looking at May and the inflated record and assume that this team is THAT good, or that this team is still coming back down and is more than likely a 500 type ball club, which 95% of us would have been ecstatic with before the season.  

     

    There are a lot of holes and I don't see how someone couldn't look to next season with E. Santana the whole season, Sano and Buxton with reps under their belts starting from Day 1, Stauffer and Boyer not in the pen, a Berrios with tons of potential getting a shot the bigs, etc and not see a team as talented or if not more talented than the one they have had on the field all year.

    Edited by SwainZag
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    what veterans are they trading for good, MLB ready, players? Or, are they trading for more prospects, meaning 2017 or later?

     

    A major league ready catcher would be my priority. Depending on the catcher, players to trade could include, as options, (not all) Arcia, Plouffe, Polanco or any from a list of the younger (2017 or later) prospects. Again, depends on the catcher. There are several teams with an established catcher and a younger second.

     

    Someone mentioned Cozart as a possible SS trade. Of course, he's rehabbing right now but I'd be willing to talk to Cincinnati about him in the offseason.

     

    I would not want to trade Buxton, Berrios, Sano or Kepler for either position. Rosario maybe for the right player.

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    I am NOT in favor of going for it at the expense of potential plus major leaguers.

     

    The formerly top farm system in the game still needs to sort the wheat from the chaff.

     

    I don't want the Twins to trade a future Cy Young or HR champion for guys whose best years are gone.

     

    A tweak at catcher seems most appropriate, as it is also an organizational weakness.

     

    Trading the farm to go for it all at this point? Lunacy. 

     

    Building a winning culture and mostly standing pat, letting the prospect situation sort itself out, that's what I advocate.

     

    They are already miles ahead of last season. Slow and steady wins the game.

     

     

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    Experiment - bring up the young players and rotate them through the rest of the season, see if someone develops the hot hand that Santana had last year - Polanco? 

     

     

    This has been the tactic of the past four years--disappoint in the first 60% of the season (but not stink)--then bring up the young players, rotate them... .  Which causes the rest of the season to be a total disaster.  NO!  Once the Twins decided to promote the top prospects and "start the clock", the die was cast--play the best and try to win every game and get to the playoffs NOW.  If they fail, they fail.  But it wasn't because they wouldn't play their best cards.

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    Yes to making trades to improve the club. Yes to bag of balls and a pack of grape flavored bubblegum for an older vet set up man or catcher in a salary dump type move that is short term.

     

    Doesnt cost much. Helps the '15 season. Always the option of a re-sign. RP easier to find than catchers...but still.

     

    No to the mid season BIG MOVE. Not unless it was someone under 30 with team control for a few more years. Otherwise, you are overbuying mid season when you should wait until the offseason to shop big.

     

    As to why the Twins might be better next season, closer to a REAL contender, it is simply a matter of tweaks you may/can make, and Rosario, Hicks, Buxton, Sano, Gibson, May andothers more experienced, further along. Arcia and/or Vargas could be right, or closer. Polanco or Escobar may seize SS. Etc, etc, etc.

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    We don't really know what this team is yet.  This is the first year of a resurgence that will hopefully keep this team competitive for years to come.  It's deep in prospects and young players still figuring things out.  The future is bright, no need to haphazardly patch something together to get a quick flash in the playoffs.  There are too many holes in the roster to fill before the trade deadline.  These holes can be better addressed in the off season.  If this team were only one good piece away from really having a shot then they should be serious buyers but now is not the time.  I foresee  a deal for a mid level reliever after the non-wavier deadline. 

    The pieces are just starting to come together and more will fit in the years to come.  Enjoy it for what it is now and hopefully something special will happen.

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    I don't think they are awesome either, but I think throwing away the banked wins this year is like throwing away a 5-10 WAR player starting next year.....

     

    So what do you think the Twins should do?? 

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    There's no guarantee that making moves this year will succeed either. One has to play the odds. You think the odds favor moving now. I think the odds are better if we wait.

     

    Thats pretty much the theme of this whole post, some posters think that trades have to be made just because the Twins are contending, and other posters think its foolish to throw away their draft picks now for a team that has a lot of holes.  

     

    Personally I'm just going to enjoy the ride.

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