Twins Trade Targets

I think that moving Nolasco for anyone this off-season is highly unlikely for a number of reasons.

 

First, an arguement we've heard before.  Why would anyone willingly want to move a player only one season into a multi-year contract (as we sometimes heard when the Hammer was still here)?  Makes it even less likely anyone else would consider signing here.

 

Second, he had one poor season, one that could well be attributed to injury.  What's the harm in seeing if the poor season was due to injury or to him being overmatched in the American League?  If we see another poor season, one that's not attributed to injury, then all bets are off.

 

Third, I'm not totally convinced that he's not at least one of the Twins' top 5 starters (at the moment), like it or not.  I know there are others with much higher potential in the pipeline, but outside of maybe Alex Meyer, I don't see any of them being a significant factor this coming season.

 

I'm sure there are other reasons as well.

Unless it is a bad contract for bad contract move and we think the other guy will be better over the remainder of the deal.....I agree.  Keep the guy.  This would be a sell low and he has a good shot IMO to be much better than this season.   Paying him to play somewhere else does not make sense after one injury riddled year.  Then having to buy another pitcher....

One potential catalysts for a better team next year is 2015 Ricky being much better than 2014 Ricky.  Before this year his ERA was 4.37.  It was 5.38 this year.  Give the guy 200 innings and that is a 22 run improvement.  We move from 29th to 27th in runs allowed. 

OK, that was depressing.

I will bounce this idea here as well.

 

My trade targets would be Giancarlo Stanton and Mat Latos.

 

Stanton has expressed his disinterest in the Marlins franchise, and they are always limited in their ability to offer big contracts to players.  I would offer them Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Adam Walker and Jason Wheeler for him.  If I needed to add more, I probably would under the premise that he signs long term with the Twins.  I would hesitate to add Buxton instead of Sano, but I might consider it.  Probably would not add Stewart, Meyer or Berrios.  MIght be willing to go as high as Gonsalves.  It might not be enough.

 

For Latos I would offer Alex Meyer, Max Kepler, and Travis Harrison.  Again, I'm not sure that would be enough, but it would be my opening offer. 

 

Prospects I would really hesitate to move are Buxton, Gordon, Polanco, Berrios & Stewart.  Sano would have to be for a special player which I believe Stanton is.

Both interesting ideas, but I don't see the Twins moving seven prospects right now, or turning around and dropping the $200M to sign those two guys.

As a stand alone, I love the Stanton deal.  He has two years left until free agency and that would solve our LF issue!   If we ripped that deal up and gave him a 6 year, $110M deal it would be nice.  Basically adding 90M over four years to what he is likely to make in arbitration.  Not sure what the appetite would be for an NL team to get Sano given defensive uncertainty.

Both interesting ideas, but I don't see the Twins moving seven prospects right now, or turning around and dropping the $200M to sign those two guys.

 

As a stand alone, I love the Stanton deal.  He has two years left until free agency and that would solve our LF issue!   If we ripped that deal up and gave him a 6 year, $110M deal it would be nice.  Basically adding 90M over four years to what he is likely to make in arbitration.  Not sure what the appetite would be for an NL team to get Sano given defensive uncertainty.

Not enough in prospects to acquire Stanton and not nearly enough money/years to sign him to an extension. Minimum of 8/200. Would take Sano, one of Meyer/Berrios, and more. Not even certain that would work with the injury concerns of the three prospects at the moment.

So, it was stated that a deal for Stanton would require more, which I think is worth considering.  So I will amend my offer.

 

Giancarlo Stanton for Miguel Sano, Oswaldo Arcia, and Eddie Rosario/Adam Walker.  Gives the Marlins a cost controlled, power hitting RF for 2015, a top 10 prospect in all of baseball, as well as a power hitting minor league outfielder.  Cuts payroll, can be sold to the latin community in Miami, and gives the team an out rather than paying Stanton a huge contract.

Replace that last piece with a pitcher and I think you are on to what it would take. That, combined with the extension, is a healthy ransom.

Not enough in prospects to acquire Stanton and not nearly enough money/years to sign him to an extension. Minimum of 8/200. Would take Sano, one of Meyer/Berrios, and more. Not even certain that would work with the injury concerns of the three prospects at the moment.

I think 8/200 is reasonable if he was a free agent.  My deal reflected he fact that he is effectively on a 2 year deal at $20M total now. 

If we ripped that up and gave him 6/110 we would effectively be giving him $22.5M a year extension on his existing deal, or paying him another $17M over the next two years.   I go out 6 years and you go out 8.  But I don't think we are miles apart.

Call it 7/133.  He gives up some money in exchange for security.

 

 

I'd say unequivobally no. These two guys won't turn around this franchize. The guys you are moving most likely will.

Regading the Stanton deal.....I am not expecting much out of Wheeler.  I think Rosario still needs to prove he can be a corner OF bat.  Walker is still quite raw.  Sano, while a great prospect has some uncertainty about his position.

I agre with DRJIM, that is not enough but I would do that deal.

I think you have that backwards.

 

Did emptying a good portion of their minor league system for Miguel Cabrera kill the Tigers?

Yeah, the Tigers gave up a marginal OF for the Padres and a good reliever for the Red Sox for one of the best players of all time.

I will say, the Tigers don't rely on prosects the way the Twins do.

 

 

That's just it. It isn't just Sano. It's Sano, Meyer, Rosario, Walker, Wheeler, Kepler, and Harrison. All of them (except maybe Wheeler) look to be average to above pieces... several of whom could be stars. Adding Stanton and Latos might turn a 70 win team to an 80 win team, but I can say with certainty that some of thoe prospects will pan out and add far more wins over the life of their careers. This has Garza for Young written all over it...

 

I'd be up for trading prospects when there's one or two gaping holes needing to be filled, but no way in this stage of the Twins development would I think it's a good idea to give up that type of talent for that short of a rental.

Clarification, I only support this hypothetical not going to happen deal if Stanton agrees to an extension.

 

 

Exactly, this was a salary dump more than anything else. If you want that, go get Kemp. You can get good production simply for taking on his salary. There's no way I'd part ways with Sano for a couple years of Stanton.

At the time, Maybin and Miller were big time prospects.

 

 

That's just it. It isn't just Sano. It's Sano, Meyer, Rosario, Walker, Wheeler, Kepler, and Harrison. All of them (except maybe Wheeler) look to be average to above pieces... several of whom could be stars. Adding Stanton and Latos might turn a 70 win team to an 80 win team, but I can say with certainty that some of thoe prospects will pan out and add far more wins over the life of their careers. This has Garza for Young written all over it...

 

I'd be up for trading prospects when there's one or two gaping holes needing to be filled, but no way in this stage of the Twins development would I think it's a good idea to give up that type of talent for that short of a rental.

I would trade Sano, Meyer and two of the guys you mentioned for Stanton IF you could lock down an extension. Wouldn't hesitate. The catch of course is that there is some disagreement about what that extension might look like, I think it's going to be huge.

If I were the Twins, I'd look at targeting Kemp. He's way overpaid and under contract for four more years, but at the same time posted a > .800 OPS this year, and he's only 29 I think.

I actually agree. It would take alot to get him, though. If they could somehow manage a Kemp for Plouffe+some prospect(s) and taking all of Kemp's contract would be perfect IMO. Move Santana to SS, Esco to 3rd and Kemp in CF. Also would shut people up about not spending money.

I will probably be hated for this, but I do think that the Twins should consider shopping: Kurt Suzuki, Trevor Plouffe OR Eduardo Escobar (not both), Casey Fien, Oswaldo Arcia (I think so, maybe), Eddie Rosario, Travis Harrison (he has no place 2-4 years from now anyway), and Tyler Duffey.

 

I don't want to trade Arcia and Rosario, but something's got to give. I see minimal value in other guys on the roster for trades, and I do not think that the Twins should, in general, be moving prospects.

Hate seems like such a strong word.

I wouldn't have much problem trading anyone on that list, I just don't think you would get much in return for anyone outside of Arcia and Plouffe, perhaps a little for Escobar

Suzuki, Fien, Rosario, Harrison, Duffey aren't getting you much of anything. Fien might even be non-tendered.