One Intriguing Way the Twins Could Use Their Remaining Money

When we put together our Offseason Handbook at the end of last season, we explored a number of trade candidates for the rotation, noting that this has been the front office's preferred avenue for acquiring frontline starters.

Several options were mentioned, with varying levels of feasibility. Among them was Pablo Lopez, whom the Twins reportedly engaged the Marlins about earlier this offseason. Another was Chris Sale, who hasn't been connected to Minnesota officially – to my knowledge – but lurks as a potentially pivotal remaining piece in this offseason's landscape.

As noted in our Handbook writeup on Sale, his Hall of Fame career has taken a sharp detour since turning 30, with his tenure in Boston largely hampered by injuries and frustration. Last year things reached a painful crescendo, when Sale broke his wrist while biking to get lunch as he was recovering from another surgery.

The premise here is that the Red Sox might be motivated to move on, with Sale still owed another $55 million over the next two seasons and Boston's short-term contention hopes in doubt. 

A report in the New York Post in late December indicated that there could be an opening.

"Chris Sale is a pitcher [teams] could look at," wrote Jon Heyman. "The Red Sox told teams early they had no intention to trade Sale, but they’re open to listening on starters now." The "but" there seems to indicate Sale could be among the trade chips they've softened on.

Sale is of course familiar with the Twins, and vice versa. The southpaw has tended to be oddly vulnerable against Minnesota's lineup, with a 3.91 career ERA that far exceeds his 3.03 overall mark.  

But that shouldn't distract anyone from the fact that Sale was among the top 3-to-5 MLB starters in the 2010s, with one of the most dominant track records in history.

From 2013 through 2018 he was a top five Cy Young finisher every single year. He holds the all-time MLB record for best strikeout rate (11.1 K/9), and K-BB ratio (5.33). The tall, lanky, hard-throwing left-hander is a force the likes of which baseball has rarely seen.

Given their current financial situation, the Twins could reasonably take on the remaining two years of Sale's contract at $27.5 million apiece. If they move Max Kepler's salary, they can do it without even raising total payroll for 2023. It's the kind of short-term, high-AAV, big-upside deal the front office loves. Meanwhile, Sale's price tag along with his age and recent health issues should keep the trade cost in check.

There are two key sticking points when it comes to sizing up Sale as a trade target.

The first is those health issues. Sale has thrown a total of 48 ⅓ innings since the 2019 season. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2020 which cost him most of 2021. Last year brought a barrage of unfortunate (yet unrelated) health woes: a stress fracture in his rib during spring training, a finger fracture suffered on a line drive in July, a wrist fracture suffered on a bike ride in August. 

I'm not saying this pattern of injuries isn't concerning, but it might be less concerning, than – say – recurring forearm or shoulder soreness. And when he's made it to the mound over the last couple seasons, Sale HAS been very effective: 48.1 IP, 3.17 ERA, 10.6 K/9.

A possible silver lining to all the missed time these past three years is that Sale's arm, which accrued 1,600 major-league innings through age 30, has gotten a bit of a respite from all the wear. Maybe that will help him thrive in his mid-30s. Or maybe all of these various injuries are signs of a body breaking down.

That's one thing the Twins would have to contend with in going after Sale. The bigger hurdle is his no-trade clause. We all know the general attitudes among established frontline starting pitchers with regards to Minnesota. They don't want to come here.

Is there any reason to think Sale would feel differently? I guess it feels possible to me. He's familiar with the Midwest and AL Central from his glory days with the White Sox. He could reasonably view the Twins as having a better path to contention right now than the Red Sox. He might also welcome the chance to pitch in a more pitcher-friendly park, under less media scrutiny, as he trends toward free agency at age 35.

How realistic is that? Maybe not very. But I'm running out of realistic scenarios that would involve the Twins spending their available funds and meaningfully improving the team's upside. Acquiring Sale would be an audacious gambit, but one that could result in landing the true veteran ace they so desperately need.

It might be the only remaining path.