Twins Trade Nolasco, Meyer, Cash To Angels For Hector Santiago

Highly Unlikely.  He has been healthy all year and is only averaging about 5.5IP/game.  To hit 200 innings he would have to average 7IP/game the rest of the year.

 
Viola!.... Nolasco has averaged ~7IP/game over his last 4 starts. (It's amazing what the body can do with a "little extra motivation" from pitching in a contract expiration/optionable year, plus your teammates, managers, coaches, agent and an ex-wife or two can do for your innings production)

That is the bigger one. If he is throwing up a mid 5.00 ERA, another team isn't going to give him the leash that he had here.

We kept throwing him out there because of his salary. The Angels paid Hamilton $63m to play somewhere else. I don't think that $12m is going to buy him reps there.

And yet they were trotting out Hector Santiago every 5 days- and he averages 1/2 an inning less per outing than Nolasco (5.45 IP/game vs. Nolasco's 5.94 IP/game) and of course, Santiago has nearly a one-run per game higher FIP than Nolasco.

I have seen this mentioned a few times but the other way (aside from Meyer defying all odds and being awesome) that the Twins lose this trade is by giving Santiago an extension.

PLEASE NO!

 

He is a solid pitcher that prevents the Twins from going out and giving a FA big money.

Presumably, since Ryan is no longer part of the equation, the days of granting extensions based on the "loyal soldier " theory are over.

And yet they were trotting out Hector Santiago every 5 days- and he averages 1/2 an inning less per outing than Nolasco (5.45 IP/game vs. Nolasco's 5.94 IP/game) and of course, Santiago has nearly a one-run per game higher FIP than Nolasco.

After years, though......some pitchers clearly outperform their FIP, and some underperform.......FIP isn't like gravity or sunshine.........

I cannot understand how anyone can look at this trade, and not think, wow, Antony got rid of Nolasco, and got something back in return.....

Santiago has performed significantly better than his FIP over his career. The opposite is true of Nolasco. 

 

It comes down to performance with runners on base. Nolasco's performance drops with runners on base over his career. Santiago has actually pitched much better over his career with runners on base. Is it luck? Maybe. They both have significant PAs against over their careers.

 

Target Field may not be kind to Santiago though. He led the league in home runs given up last year. He moves from Angel Stadium which suppresses home runs from right handed batters to Target Field where right handed batters hit home runs above the league average. I used 2013-2015 as the sample for the parks but Angel Stadium has been a more difficult place for right handers to hit home runs than Target Field each year since Target Field's opening in 2010.

Yep. I'm thinking Santiago shouldn't be doing a lot of house-hunting in the Twins Cities- the Twins are looking for guys who can go deeper into games to keep the pen from being overworked- Santiago over his career has averaged ~5 1/3 IP/gm as a starting pitcher.

FIP, xFIP and other advanced stats are useful but this is a gross misuse of them. There is a very significant sample size that says Nolasco performs worse than his FIP and that Santiago performs better.

I'm not arguing the point... I'm just wondering if Santiago is actually an upgrade... the numbers don't necessarily suggest that.

I don't have a huge issue with giving up Meyer either, but this team doesn't lack #5 starters so I'm not sure why Santiago was a need

Thi$

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Because he gave up Meyer to get something back.  

 

I think it's likely Santiago performs better than Nolasco (not a high bar to clear), but lets not act like Nolasco brought back Santiago.. Meyer did

About half the posts don't mention Meyer.....they rip on Santiago.......

I loved Meyer....but he's pitched a combined, what, 100 innings or so the last two years, maybe? He's not young, he's super tall, and the Twins had clearly soured on him. I would imagine he had to be on the 25 man roster next year.........would you keep him on the 25 man roster next year?

After years, though......some pitchers clearly outperform their FIP, and some underperform.......FIP isn't like gravity or sunshine.........

 

I cannot understand how anyone can look at this trade, and not think, wow, Antony got rid of Nolasco, and got something back in return.....

Again, not arguing the point. (My Santiago reference was more towards his history of shorter outings and the Angels willingness in giving Nolasco the ball every 5 days and the likelihood of him hitting 400 IP over 2016 and '17).

Getting rid of Nolasco was the prime objective at the deadline, Antony accomplished that objective... and paid the going rate in ridding himself of that awful contract. And Boras extracted his pound of flesh as part of that equation.

About half the posts don't mention Meyer.....they rip on Santiago.......

 

I loved Meyer....but he's pitched a combined, what, 100 innings or so the last two years, maybe? He's not young, he's super tall, and the Twins had clearly soured on him. I would imagine he had to be on the 25 man roster next year.........would you keep him on the 25 man roster next year?

All of these points are accurate. The better question is why didn't Ryan have a better understanding of Meyer's nature and a more reliable developmental plan for his showcase and rebuild-defining trade of his second tenure with the Twins?

Thi$

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I'm curious.....who do you think in AAA or the MLB roster is better than Santiago, based on outcomes?

Santana

Gibson

Berrios

????

Duffey? Milone? Dean? 

All of these points are accurate. The better question is why didn't Ryan have a better understanding of Meyer's nature and a more reliable developmental plan for his showcase and rebuild-defining trade of his second tenure with the Twins?

That's a good question, and one that some people raised after the trade was made.....but is not relevant to "what should the Twins do now?". 

I'm curious.....who do you think in AAA or the MLB roster is better than Santiago, based on outcomes?

 

Santana

Gibson

Berrios

????

 

Duffey? Milone? Dean? 

You mean besides Trevor May?

How about we reach down to AA for the #5 SP?

That's a good question, and one that some people raised after the trade was made.....but is not relevant to "what should the Twins do now?". 

Well, it is relevant in any contemplated trades of proven major leaguers (for flyers like Mejia), to put much more thought into the process for developing young SP arms to reach their ceiling as quickly and efficiently as possible (the Twins have a sad history of too many talented guys who waste their best bullets while in their mid-20s in the minors)

I didn't buy into the Meyer as a starter steam that started up again with a few good starts this April.  But yeah, I imagined him as one of the better bullpen options next Spring.  

 

Who knows about the Shoulder, if the Angels were comfortable with it I imagine the injury isn't too bad.  

I'm pretty certain that Boras eased their concerns on that issue. (Scott's going to get his big payday on Meyer yet...)

You mean besides Trevor May?

How about we reach down to AA for the #5 SP?

Fair, I'd like May to be a SP.....so that's 1.

I don't think any AA starter will be starting for the Twins in April of next year......or May of next year, nor June of next year. After that, maybe.

It is also possible Meija is ready early next year (which let's hope he is, as SPs get hurt a lot.....).