Twins Trade Graterol to Dodgers for Kenta Maeda in Blockbuster Deal

For all you neigh sayers how would this board blow up if the White Sox swept in and took Betts and Price for their new 2nd Baseman and one of the White Sox decent young starters plus another body (not saying it was likely, but stranger things have happened) and now the board would blow up the we would not give up Graterol to stop the Whities from getting Betts and Price. 

Key takeaway I saw from the Athletic this morning was that the Red Sox were determined to get under the salary cap and to get something for Betts more than a draft pick. If we blew up the Dodgers deal, who knows what would have happened.

I like others are worried about Bloom (from Tampa) knowing more than the Twins, but this was worth the risk.

Had dinner tonight with my sister and brother-in-law.  Until they recently moved from L.A. to the desert, they had been long time Dodger season ticket holders.  When I asked if they were aware of the trade, they were not.  When I told them about Maeda going to the Twins, they both were shocked.  They are just fans who attended most of the games, however, felt he was one of their favorite players.

I'm surprised as good as Maeda is why he was traded for a pitcher with shoulder problems? You mean the Dodgers couldn't get more of a sure thing from any of the other 28 clubs? It's such a team friendly contract.

I like the deal, but I’m lower on Graterol than most. If the Twins would have traded Balazovic or Duran instead, it would have been harder for me to take, though I would at least know what the Twins we’re trying for. I think those two have a better chance at staying starters. I just never saw that happening with Graterol.

 
The comments saying this doesn’t move the needle...those I don’t understand. Do I want a stud ace? Absolutely and the Twins need one, but this to me also moves the needle. Not as much as a stud ace would, but moving is moving. He seems like another Odorizzi type and with this team’s inability to develop starters, I will take that.

One could argue that Graterol could have developed into Maeda or better, but I don’t think it’s in the cards. He still needs a good third pitch. He’s been working on it, but it hasn’t happened yet. He still needs to stay healthy. I don’t think he’s going to be more than a reliever. And I would trade a reliever for a mid rotation starter every time, again, especially considering this teams issues with developing SP. 

I am much less worried about the opening rotation now than I was a few days ago. That first month was looking rough to me, but Berrios, Odorizzi, Maeda, Bailey and then one of Dobnak/Thorpe/Smeltzer is solid. It’s not earth shattering, but it’s solid. I certainly like the offseason 2020 rotation more than I did the offseason 2019 one. Perez surprised me, and all of us for a little bit, so it ended up better than I thought. Hopefully Bailey and/or one of the rookies will be good surprises too. 

Now hearing via the athletic that the deal is held up over medical concerns on Graterol. Will be interesting to see what happens next

Twins typically do physicals at Twinsfest (maybe not all players). Wonder if they saw something too and thought they had to sell high. 

Now hearing via the athletic that the deal is held up over medical concerns on Graterol. Will be interesting to see what happens next

Yep won't be shocked to see Balazovic or Duran subbed in instead if this is the hang up.

Yep won't be shocked to see Balazovic or Duran subbed in instead if this is the hang up.

I would be much less of a fan if the trade included either of those two over Graterol.  I'd rather see the Twins add another player to the deal, or send cash, comp draft picks, int'l pool.  There's plenty of room to get creative without dealing one of their true starter prospects.

This makes me worried about Graterol's medicals.  Boston knew injury history, knew the Twins had planned to keep him in the pen, and still balked once they saw the report.

This is a weird situation I have no idea what the extra cost will be.  Seems like it will probably be the Twins that have to pay it as Bos/LA could presumably find another 3rd team to take Maeda.

The days of yore have nothing at all to do with this trade.

I hate to break it to the Twinsdaily faithful. 

 

We just acquired a major league talent for the next 4 years for 3 million a year plus incentives. A contract like that isn't going to be cheap to acquire and a contract like that will not hamstring future payroll so we can increase the quality of future adds. It is Maeda plus because the contract allows for a plus. 

 

I'll let all those inclined slap some arbitrary number on him... Is he a #2 or #3 or #4. Doesn't matter... He is above average and we got him for 4 years on a contract that allows us to improve other spots on the roster. 

 

And... almost just as important... We just cut our starting pitching shopping list for next year by 20%. On paper... we only need to find 2 next year. 

After reading through 100 posts, I was thinking the same thing. I would add that using this capital for a top of the rotation guy is a great idea. Unfortunately, the teams that have those guys have playoff aspirations and they are not trading them. I find it hard to be bad because we did not get a player that's not available. I won't be mad until such a player is traded, proving there was actually such a player available.

41st out of how many? He didn't qualify for the ERA title in 2019, so I'm not sure what criteria you are using. If you set it at 150 innings, Maeda was 44th in ERA -- but out of only 75 pitchers. I admit there's some skill involved throwing enough innings to qualify, but that's not a great case that his overall run prevention is notably better than league average.

 

And of course, his raw ERA has benefitted from playing his home games in a clear pitcher's park, playing in a league without a DH, and also pitching out of the pen. The NL average SP ERA in 2019 was 4.33; Maeda's ERA as a SP in 2019 was 4.14. That's within 5%, even before adjusting for park.

 

Using ERA- to include park adjustments, here are his numbers as a SP the past 3 seasons compared to the MLB average ERA- for SP:

 

2019: Maeda 99, MLB 101

2018: Maeda 100, MLB 101

2017: Maeda 105, MLB 103

 

Admittedly, he was better in 2016 (87 ERA-) but of course that was his rookie season 4 years ago now. It only improves his career mark to 97 (and 2016 weakens his case as a postseason SP too).

 

I appreciate that there are good points to Maeda -- the K rate, the weak contact, etc. -- but his run prevention as a starter has clearly been right around league average. And even if his peripherals suggest that could improve (career FIP- of 90), any potential improvement has to be weighed against potential age decline at this point too.

Spin it any way you want, he's a #3.

So, what is the scoop on Alex Verdugo? Looks like he hits for some average with low k rates, but also low walk rates and has pretty modest power. His stats remind me a bit of Rosario (with less power). I wonder who in the Twins minor league system is a good comparison. 

Boston got Verdugo and Graterol. Could we have ended up with Betts and Price if we had packaged a prospect similar to Verdugo with Graterol? Could we have then traded our extra corner OF (Rosario or Kepler) for Maeda and ended up with Betts, Price, and Maeda?

Here's this from fangraphs on Verdugo:

For all of Verdugo’s talent, concerns about his makeup have followed him since before he was drafted, with Keith Law (then of ESPN) noting questions about his level of motivation circa 2014, and the Baseball America Prospect Handbook 2018 writing, “Verdugo’s skills are undeniable, but criticism of his effort level and maturity have plagued him since his amateur days and were again prevalent in 2017,” referring, at the very least, to a dressing-down the rookie received from Rich Hill upon showing up to the ballpark late after oversleeping. In their 2019 edition, BA wrote, “Verdugo stays dialed in at the plate, but an indifferent attitude affects the rest of his game,” and noted lapses in his focus afield as well as a “slow motor” that “shows up on the bases, frustrating teammates and coaches alike,” while in their write up of the Dodgers system last year, Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel noted that “part of the reason teams have been asking for other Dodgers prospects in trades is due to some past off-field stuff.”

I would be much less of a fan if the trade included either of those two over Graterol.  I'd rather see the Twins add another player to the deal, or send cash, comp draft picks, int'l pool.  There's plenty of room to get creative without dealing one of their true starter prospects.

Me too, but I think Boston believed they were getting a true starter prospect in Graterol. I'm sure they're pushing for either Balazovic or Duran. I'm also not sure what leverage, if any, the Twins have right now.

If the roles were reversed and MN was parting with a generational talent like Betts, I can't imagine the uproar if their only return was salary relief and a pitching prospect with uncertain medicals + a throw in. 

The leverage the Twins have is to back out of the deal if Boston is now insisting on Balazovic or Duran, and I would. Then it's between the Red Sox and the Dodgers to work it out. The two of those teams WANT this, maybe even NEED this, much more than the Twins. Our leverage is to simply back out if asked to give more.

I meant leverage in getting a deal done. Of course any of the three teams could back out at any point, nobody is being held hostage in the negotiations.