Twins Trade Deadline Tidbits

Jurickson Profar would be a 3 year guy. He can play all over, but for the Twins, he would be their starting SS, a huge position of need. Not sure he'd be a guy looking to sign an extension that bought out his first FA year but I'm guessing probably not.

 

The Twins could actually help out the Ranges a lot this year and the Rangers have stuff the Twins might want.

 

The Rangers could use SP (lots of injuries) and RP (worst ERA in American League) help.

The Rangers have not gotten much production from the Catcher.

With Prince Fielder out, they could use some POP at DH and offensive production.

If they trade Profar, the definitely need a utility IF and DH help.

 

So what if the Twins offered Santana, Suzuki, Nunez or Escobar, Stewart or another of their top SP prospects and maybe Abad/Kintzler for Profar and a lower end minor leaguer or 2?

I like the idea of pursuing Profar and think their needs, their surplus, and the Twins needs and trade chip matches nicely. I earlier suggested Santana and Suzuki for Profar, but was scoffed at. Your suggestion of adding Nunez, Abad AND Stewart is certainly increasing the offer. Maybe something between those two extremes?

That seems like an awful lot to give up for 1 SS who is good, but not great right now....doesn't it? I don't understand why the Twins do that.

 

Profar does not make them a contender next year....so you are giving up a top end SP prospect for 2 years of a SS (when you have Nick Gordon in the minors).....

3 years of a SS.  2017, 2018 and 2019.  If Gordon flies through the minors, then Profar can be shifted to 2B (if they trade Dozier), or 3B (if Sano is DH or 1B and Plouffe is gone).  It actually gives them extra insurance to trade Plouffe and not really having to worry about what they would do at 3B if Sano doesn't pan out.  He has position flexibility.

Is it really that much to give up?  The Twins have Stewart, Jay, Gonsalves and Jorge all basically at the same level.  The Twins are probably never going to get all 4 of them into the rotation, so why not use one of them to pull off a better long term deal.

I'm also not suggesting that its 6 Twins players just for Profar.  There would be some lower end minor leaguers as part of it as well.

What about some sort of deal centered around Kyle Gibson for Jurickson Profar?  Both guys are free agents in 2020.  Maybe you could even do Ricky Nolasco and Kyle Gibson for Jurickson Profar (plus whatever minor league filler to make it work).

I just see that AA Starting Pitching as a point of depth for the Twins.  Another point of depth is OF, so if you could package one of the Twins ML trade pieces with Adam Brett Walker to get a much better return, I'd do it to.

On maybe a more realistic note, what would people think of a Ervin Santana for Reese Mcguire deal with the Pirates?  

I like the idea of pursuing Profar and think their needs, their surplus, and the Twins needs and trade chip matches nicely. I earlier suggested Santana and Suzuki for Profar, but was scoffed at. Your suggestion of adding Nunez, Abad AND Stewart is certainly increasing the offer. Maybe something between those two extremes?

Thats the thing, to get Profar, Texas would need some high end talent.  You've got to give up something to get something.  Honestly, I think Santana, Suzuki and Stewart would have got it done (before today's trade).  I just suggested adding Nuneze and Abad to the trade for the Rangers needs and getting some additional lower end minor leagues in return.

Well, TX just traded for a SP and RP, and neither were Twins....so I think we can scratch them off the list.....

Interesting.  What would Twins fans have thought if that was Milone and Abad for Travis Demerritte?

He's a class A player with a huge K rate and a PED suspension. Trading Abad for him would be a huge mistake.

But based on that trade, thats the kind of return you can expect.  Abad is better than the LHP the Rangers got in the deal, so you could maybe expect a little more.

Honestly, if thats the return for Milone and Abad, don't you just keep Abad as a cheap bullpen option for next year?

Excuse me?  A team trading for JOE Mauer?  The Mauer with $46M still on contract over the next 2 years?

 

If you find a team like that, we'd probably be able to get the next Babe Ruth back. 

NO ONE wants a guy who makes $23M/yr and seems perfectly content to bat .270, 10 HR, 60 RBI. And he would veto any trade attempt because he knows he would be savaged anywhere but in his home state.

Are you really suggesting that the Twins can't find somebody to pitch every 5th day if they trade Santana? For starters, calling Berrios back up is long overdue. You've also got Jason Wheeler at AAA, and he could be worth a look. There's also the waiver wire. You could even put Andrew Albers in there. Doesn't matter. The point is that they're not playing for this year anymore, and probably not next year, either, so use those starts to get a look at somebody else, or just give them to anybody at this point. Get the best return you can for Santana under the circumstances and hope you end up with a player who can help in 2-3 years when you're (hopefully) contending again. Santana is not going to be that player, so why bother? That's the whole idea of being a seller at the trade deadline. And teams likely to lose 90-100 games should definitely be sellers. 

EXACTLY!  The Twins just don't get the rebuilding concept.  It could be a feeble attempt at posturing for a better deal, but reality is reality with this organization.  

This team IMO has no hope of  contending next year without revamping the rotation.  If Santana were 2 or 3 years younger i'd say hang onto him as a building block for the rotation, but the truth of the matter is that he's 34 this December.  His UCL could blow at anytime and the PED issues in his recent past are of grave concern.  It is very likely he starts to decline soon.  

I think you have to seriously consider dealing him for anything decent.  Remember too that we are also burdened with the Hughes contract .  More importantly the Twins apparently feel obligated to start Nolasco, Hughes (when healthy) and Santana because of their contracts no matter how poorly they pitch.  The time to wheel and deal Santana is now.  If you have to dump Nolasco, fine.  That will clear space in the rotation for Berrios, May and whomever you wish to try out from AAA.  Sometimes it's addition by subtraction.

Yep, Gleeman said it well on kfan today.
He said that when you sign a 32 year old FA pitcher to a 4 year deal, it's the first 2 years that you want, but you pay the extra 2 years because that's the price to get those first 2 years.
The Twins should be thrilled to get years 1 and 2 only, and a prospect or two to boot.

I agree 100%.

Gleeman is spot on here.

Who cares who's starting next year? I don't care if it's Dean, Wheeler, or a reclamation project taking the 4-5 spots as long as Berrios, May and Gibson are starting. This team ain't winning next year. Might as well get something of value for a vet that doesn't fit into the picture age-wise.

 

Nobody is stating that we have to win every trade (well, maybe the Twins brass think we have to based on their words and actions the past 5 seasons)- no trades are ever made in a vacuum, or at least they shouldn't be. All we'd like to see is a fair return based on the market for a pitcher like Santana. Trades need to be made with a purpose- for a contender that is dealing a prospect for an upgrade at the ML level, for a team like the Twins that is trading pieces like Santana, Nunez, Suzuki, etc that won't fit into the plans 2-3 years down the road for something that could. 

 

Trying to "win" every trade by getting a better return than the other team is a fool's errand. It takes at least two willing parties to make a trade (or any transaction in a marketplace for that matter) both acting in their own self-interest. Unless the other party is a total fool (or desperate) you'll end up paralyzed- indefinitely waiting for your socks to be blown off. 

 

It's like the Twins are a store, a veteran baseball player store if you will, and Ervin Santana is a gallon milk they are selling. If the market price for a gallon of milk is $2.50, the Twins could set their price for that gallon of milk at $10, but not too many customers would be willing to pay $10/gallon of milk. Might as well go down the street to the White Sox store. The problem is the milk in and of itself isn't all that valuable to a grocery store, the money is far more desirable (grocery stores can't pay their employees in milk, for instance) and in this case the money is the currency of baseball, prospects. 

I'm not super excited about Gibson anymore either.  Guy is quickly approaching his prime years and has established a troublesome reoccurring pattern of starting every season VERY slowly.  I'd listen too offers for him as well.    Note he is arbitration eligible this off season and is likely to get expensive very quickly.

I'd go one step further and say that Gibson is nearly finished with his prime years.
I'd consider ages 25 through 29 a baseball players prime.

Uffda don't say that.  What does that mean for Meyer and May both of whom are already 26?  Then it's even more imperative that the Twins move these overpriced veterans unless they have already written them off and are waiting on Stewart, Gonsalves, and Jay.  There doesn't appear to be much else to be excited about.   Burdi, Reed, Chargois and Cederoth are all relievers.  Neither Stewart or Gonsalves is particularly overpowering.  The two exceptions appear to be Berrios and Jay a converted reliever.

I'm increasingly resigning myself to the fact that nothing much will happen at the deadline.  The Twins should be sellers.   However, the actual tradeable assets/players suffer in value due to the length of their contracts, their potential value to the Twins next year (or the following years), and their third-tier status on the market (or worse).  

You figure Suzuki, Nunez, Kintzler, and Abad all are at their premium value or on expiring/near-expiring contracts. If they do get traded, I think it will be near the deadline deals. (I hope some team panics and overpays for Santana...)

If we're lucky we may get some August deals for lottery tickets and AAAA filler. 

...Trading Abad for him would be a huge mistake.

A little hyperbolic, no?

I misread this and thought that the Twins were trading deadline tidbits - like calling up the Mets front office and saying, 'You remember back in '07 when we traded you Luis Castillo for Dustin Martin and Drew Butera? Well, here's a really interesting tidbit on that deal..."

Unfortunately, I think that would be more activity than we'll actually see from the Twins front office at this trading deadline.

What is "market value" for a trade?  Its whatever teams are willing to offer you.  If Antony gets 10 trade offers for a 23 year old in A ball, thats market value, but Antony shouldn't trade him for that.

 

If you look at the rotation next year, it should be Gibson, Duffey, Berrios and 2 other guys.  I think you should dump Nolasco and Milone and fill those last to spots with Santana and May or some other young guy.

 

However, if they get an offer for for a minor league P that would be Top 10 in the minor league system, or a controllable major league catcher, I'd be up for it.

 

Or how about this idea something like this as framework for a deal?  Santana, Kohl Stewart + filler for Profar + filler?

Again, you're too caught up on the return. Which was the point of my post. Santana is not part of the future. Teams are willing to offers something of value for him now, we should do it. Btw, did you see that the Rangers dealt a former first round pick for a pair of Braves' minor league signings yesterday? Contenders are desperate for pitching this year at the deadline. 

I think we should target Pittsburgh, if they decide to make a push.  They need starting pitching and their infield could use some help for this year and the next few.  I think Kyle Gibson would be good there, or Ervin Santana with some cash.  For infield, I wonder if they would be interested in Dozier or Nunez and Polanco to play second/utility and third base next year.  I would be asking for Taillon (dream) and McGuire or Mitch Keller and McGuire depending on the rest of the package and who/how much cash I give up.

I'm not super excited about Gibson anymore either.  Guy is quickly approaching his prime years and has established a troublesome reoccurring pattern of starting every season VERY slowly.  I'd listen too offers for him as well.    Note he is arbitration eligible this off season and is likely to get expensive very quickly.

I'd go one step further and say that Gibson is nearly finished with his prime years.
I'd consider ages 25 through 29 a baseball players prime.

Normally, I'm right there with you, but I'm making an exception for Gibson because of his TJ surgery- he is relatively inexperienced (85 starts) and has lower milage on his arm (less than 900 innings of pro ball). Plus he is still relatively cheap, with a few years on control left. The risk of keeping Santana around is much higher than Gibson, IMO. Santana is 5 years older, has over 2600 innings of pro ball and has a nearly identical career xFIP and SIERA to Gibson. 

Plus, I think it's a bit unfair to blame Gibson for his poor performance in April- he was battling an injury. After Gibson posted an xFIP of 5.72 in April, he put up an xFIP of 3.95 in June and 3.54 in July, which is kinda where he left off last year with an xFIP of 3.47 in September of last year. Santana meanwhile has posted xFIPs of 4.29, 4.17, 5.23, and 4.04.

Well, TX just traded for a SP and RP, and neither were Twins....so I think we can scratch them off the list.....

That were both minor league free agents in May. And the Rangers gave up a former first round pick. Clearly, Santana is better and should demand a higher return. 

Cheap?  Third year of arbitration after a decent season will be close to $3M.  For a middle reliever.  No. He has to go.  Melotakis is cheaper.

You can't have a bullpen and a rotation full of first and second year players, even when you are just building for the future.  You have to have some sort of stability there.

In the end, I probably would have traded Milone and Abad for that guy from the Rangers.  He's like the IF version of Adam Brett Walker.  Probably not going to end up a big leaguer due to his propensity for strikeouts, but if he gets that under control, look out.

You can't have a bullpen and a rotation full of first and second year players, even when you are just building for the future.  You have to have some sort of stability there.

 

In the end, I probably would have traded Milone and Abad for that guy from the Rangers.  He's like the IF version of Adam Brett Walker.  Probably not going to end up a big leaguer due to his propensity for strikeouts, but if he gets that under control, look out.

Yes you can.  It's not like the rotation will not have veterans if Santana is traded.  Gibson has reached veteran status along with Milone.

Yes you can.  It's not like the rotation will not have veterans if Santana is traded.  Gibson has reached veteran status along with Milone.

Fair point on Gibson.  I'm working on the plan that Milone won't be part of next year's rotation.

To give you an example of what I'd want in a Santana trade.  I would like the trade straight up for the guy they got for Nunez.  I would not like the trade if it was for the guy the Rangers gave to the Braves.

with Milone, that plan is either a trade this year (highly unlikely) or a non-tender for the next GM.

"highly unlikely" 

Why?  I mean for a team looking to gamble on a low risk left handed starter whose arbitration eligible the next two years and not locked into a big contract.