Twins Trade Deadline Tidbits

Man, I shake my head that Anthony feels he can be competitive in 2017. Maybe he can, but it would be a fluke and having no system failure. Right now, prospects are being delayed, you have a bunch of overpaid starters not producing, the Joe Mauer problem, and something isn't going right on the field,.

 

No, you won't give away Santana. If he was a free agent this winter, he could possibly get the same as owed him by the Twins.

 

You do move Suzuki. Unless you wish to resign him. But try try try to get something and then worry about resigning him.

 

Dump Plouffe. If you do, he becomes another teams arbitration problem. Unless you wish to pay him $10 million in 2017. And then you might as well sign him long term.

 

Figure out what to do with Mauer. At this point, I would ALMOST rather have three more years of Plouffe playing first, or happily have multi years of Vargas and even Park and wish I could go back and get Arcia. He was the face of the franchise, but no more. If someone, anyone would offer him a home...do it. I will admit that he is hitting pretty darn good if it is an eye issue. But putting him at the top of the order and his production pop compared to others isn't working out.

 

You need 40-man roster spots this off-season. If they aren't going to be there come November, no need to have them here this September!

 

 

They'll do nothing of significance again, which is almost comical for me at this point.

 

Wake up. Trade Santana for a decent return along with Dozier, Nunez, Suzuki, Kinzler, and whoever else can be shipped out. If you're serious about competing, don't be so Godawful cheap, take that 13.5 you ship out with Santana, tack another 15-20 onto it, and go sign a couple of guys like Moore, Cashner, Gio Gonzalez to go along with Berrios, Gibson, and Duffey. Go sign a Neil Walker, Prado, or Escobar for the infield. Sign some competent guys for the pen, (or get Chagrois, Hildenberger, etc up at the beginning of the year, instead of pinching another year of service).

 

After you bring in a some decent prospects and adequately replace the departures you'll have more ammo to beef up the roster for a playoff run without raving your while system. If you're on your way to another 90-loss season, you unload this year's signed replacement for more prospects, and on goes the cycle until you find a winner. You have your main guys like Berrios, Buxton, Sano, Kepler, etc to build around.

 

I'm of the belief that they have to maximize the value on some of these guys that have contributed to 5 years of futility, if at all possible.. By value I don't mean in terms of the Pohlad's bank account as much as what can be done to set this team up next year, and long into the future.

I'm not going to lose my mind if Santana sticks around and I didn't think Gibson would be dealt. I will say though, with the exception of Milone, all these starters are coming back next season. Will the Twins finally remove Nolasco from the rotation? Will May finally start some games? What are they doing with Hughes? Berrios should be a lock along with Duffey and Gibson. If the correct decisions are made and the starting rotation reflects the future of the team rather than who on the team is owed the most money,  I'm fine with holding onto Santana and/or Gibson. If we're subjected to another season of below average veterans pitching with a longer leash than they should have, and blocking younger players then sadly I would have to say I'm on the "trade them for what you can get," side. Santana might not bring a ton back, but his value definitely isn't declining right now and most importantly, moving him frees up a rotation spot. Gibson has been up and down as usual but he's younger and much cheaper than Santana. It isn't an ideal scenario, but if you don't have confidence in the Twins to clear the "logjam," (can the worst pitching staff in baseball really have a "logjam?") in the rotation, then the position of trading Santana or Gibson makes complete sense. They may not receive a haul in return, but a spot opens up for a guy like Trevor May, and there is value in that. 

 

I'm not going to lose my mind if Santana sticks around and I didn't think Gibson would be dealt. I will say though, with the exception of Milone, all these starters are coming back next season. Will the Twins finally remove Nolasco from the rotation? Will May finally start some games? What are they doing with Hughes? Berrios should be a lock along with Duffey and Gibson. If the correct decisions are made and the starting rotation reflects the future of the team rather than who on the team is owed the most money, I'm fine with holding onto Santana and/or Gibson. If we're subjected to another season of below average veterans pitching with a longer leash than they should have, and blocking younger players then sadly I would have to say I'm on the "trade them for what you can get," side. Santana might not bring a ton back, but his value definitely isn't declining right now and most importantly, moving him frees up a rotation spot. Gibson has been up and down as usual but he's younger and much cheaper than Santana. It isn't an ideal scenario, but if you don't have confidence in the Twins to clear the "logjam," (can the worst pitching staff in baseball really have a "logjam?") in the rotation, then the position of trading Santana or Gibson makes complete sense. They may not receive a haul in return, but a spot opens up for a guy like Trevor May, and there is value in that.

I'll have to disagree with that last part. I don't see value in replacing Gibson/Santana with Trevor May. You're breaking even in performance in that scenario at best. Trevor May isn't a Lucas Giolito, Tyler Glasnow, Julio Urias, or Jose Berrios even. Trevor May provides value to the rotation if he is replacing Nolasco, Milone, or possibly Hughes.

 

And the logjam comes from having pitchers no one really wants. At some point the Twins are going to have to at least try Nolasco in the bullpen or suck it up and cut him.

 

They'll do nothing of significance again, which is almost comical for me at this point.

Wake up. Trade Santana for a decent return along with Dozier, Nunez, Suzuki, Kinzler, and whoever else can be shipped out. If you're serious about competing, don't be so Godawful cheap, take that 13.5 you ship out with Santana, tack another 15-20 onto it, and go sign a couple of guys like Moore, Cashner, Gio Gonzalez to go along with Berrios, Gibson, and Duffey. Go sign a Neil Walker, Prado, or Escobar for the infield. Sign some competent guys for the pen, (or get Chagrois, Hildenberger, etc up at the beginning of the year, instead of pinching another year of service).

After you bring in a some decent prospects and adequately replace the departures you'll have more ammo to beef up the roster for a playoff run without raving your while system. If you're on your way to another 90-loss season, you unload this year's signed replacement for more prospects, and on goes the cycle until you find a winner. You have your main guys like Berrios, Buxton, Sano, Kepler, etc to build around.

I'm of the belief that they have to maximize the value on some of these guys that have contributed to 5 years of futility, if at all possible.. By value I don't mean in terms of the Pohlad's bank account as much as what can be done to set this team up next year, and long into the future.

Cashner had a couple good seasons a couple of years ago, why would you want another pitcher declining and breaking. Gio is over 30 and not having a good year. Glory days have passed him by.  Middle of the road players are not going to get you top prospects anymore. If you can find the undervalued player in someone else's system that is high risk but high reward and it works, great. When it doesn't you get the teeth gnashing that get prevalent on fan sites who seem to expect perfection.

Antony was the assistant to Ryan. He is not a clone of Ryan.  If he had aspirations for a GM job and has a reasonable amount of intelligence, I would think he would have looked at what others do. I wouldn't begin to know how he views talent evaluation. We will find out. 

The search firm lined up an experienced person for Toronto who brought his people with him. I guess country clubs can move.

I looked on the Brewer front office page. The reassigned regime of Melvin and Ash still have prominent roles. I really would not bet on wholesale changes to the front office.

 

I'll have to disagree with that last part. I don't see value in replacing Gibson/Santana with Trevor May. You're breaking even in performance in that scenario at best. Trevor May isn't a Lucas Giolito, Tyler Glasnow, Julio Urias, or Jose Berrios even. Trevor May provides value to the rotation if he is replacing Nolasco, Milone, or possibly Hughes.

And the logjam comes from having pitchers no one really wants. At some point the Twins are going to have to at least try Nolasco in the bullpen or suck it up and cut him.

That was exactly my point; if they aren't willing to push aside some trash because they're paying them larger salaries, then moving Santana or Gibson would at least bring back some sort of prospect and give May/Berrios a secure spot in the rotation. It isn't the most desirable situation, but standing pat at the deadline and rolling into next season with basically the same starting staff is even worse IMO. 

 

Judging by Antony's comments regarding Santana it doesn't sound like he is going anywhere. I honestly am not sure if the Twins just don't want to move him but are afraid to admit it and face some backlash, or they're actually delusional enough to think he's worth a top prospect. 

One other tidbit....Twins prioritizing pitching, and not limiting the search to buyers only. So if they are looking at sellers, that means they would be giving up prospects or players with years left (Ervin or Mauer)?

 

Teheran, Shelby Miller?

 

One other tidbit....Twins prioritizing pitching, and not limiting the search to buyers only. So if they are looking at sellers, that means they would be giving up prospects or players with years left (Ervin or Mauer)?

Teheran, Shelby Miller?

Excuse me?  A team trading for JOE Mauer?  The Mauer with $46M still on contract over the next 2 years?

 

If you find a team like that, we'd probably be able to get the next Babe Ruth back. 

Any talk of trading Joe is a complete waste of keyboard typing energy. We can discuss hypothetical scenarios with him gone, but why bother?

 

I don't mind the idea of keeping Santana for some veteran presence in the rotation. He's surrendered 10 earned runs over his last six starts, dating back to his Father's Day win at home against the Yankees. Normally I'd be thrilled with his performance bolstering his trade value. However, I'm more thrilled he has put us in positions to win games than other SPs in the rotation. It's also important to have a mentor for our young guys, more especially for Spanish speaking top pitching prospects ... cough, cough, wink, wink. 

 

If we can't find a trade partner for Nolasco and/or Milone, which is very likely, one or both need to be DFA'd to make room for Berrios. At this point I also feel like Wheeler should be given a shot in the rotation. He's putting up numbers similar to Berrios in Rochester.

 

He has the worst ERA of any qualified starter over 2.5 years and it isn't close. And he makes more than all but 33 starters in the league.

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/starting-pitcher/

Ugh ... depressing to look at the list of starting pitchers with a lower salary than Nolasco this year: Arrieta, Strasburg, Bumgarner, Sale ... Y U DO DIS!?

I REALLY like the fact the Jim Pohlad asked around for advice and followed that advice and hired Korn Ferry.  That makes me believe he'll be hiring from the outside.  Ever now and then, it's a good idea to shake things up.

 

The team makeup?  Blah, blah, blah.  I'm leaving that to the new GM.  All players can be moved.  Or do I need to bring up Kevin Correa again?   

I think the Twins will trade Abad.  I think they can get a return that will allow them to pull the trigger.  I think they keep Kintzler unless blown away because he has solidified the closer role.  Also I don't think other teams value him that highly.  He sort of is who he is.  He doesn't have a long track record as a closer or dominant relief pitcher.

 

They will keep Santana primarily because they are just too thin on starting pitchers and next years free agents don't look good and prices will likely high for the talent that is there. If they do trade him they do need a good return as they gave up a fairly high second round pick to get him in the first place and right now he might be the best pitcher on our team.  Doubtful that another team will pay the price needed to pry him from the Twins.

 

I am surprised more teams aren't interested in Nunez.  He has top 10 offensive tools and the flexibility to play almost anywhere on the field.  He is top 5 I think in stolen bases and average for the shortstop position and he can hit a home run if you need him too.  He could end up with 20 dingers by the end of the year.  I know defensively he can be a liability but I think his offense more than evens that out.  I would think he could be a valuable weapon or at least excellent insurance for some team willing to pay a price.

 

 

I wish we could move past any hope for trading Nolasco. Even "if we can't trade Nolasco".....

We can't trade him. My guess is we have tried for 18 months.

He has the worst ERA of any qualified starter over 2.5 years and it isn't close. And he makes more than all but 33 starters in the league.

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/starting-pitcher/

 

Nolasco's bad for sure, although not as bad as the ERA number suggests. Reports came out that the Orioles, and perhaps others, were scouting Milone and Nolasco, so I'd suggest there is at least a slim hope one or both could be moved for a little something maybe, depending on the willingness of the Twins to absorb some of their contract sins. The way I look at it, I'd very possibly think that Nolasco and Milone, as bad as they are, give me a better shot at winning a given MLB outing than Darnell, Dean, Greenwood, Albers, or even Wheeler, the guys at AAA who have helped Berrios keep that team in contention. So, if a team comes along, desperate for a 5th starter but with worse options than those guys, maybe they throw a bone our way and give Milone or Nolasco a try here.

Two reasons for moving the starters.

1. You need to figure out over the next couple of years which younger pitchers will make it, the older ones are blocking and need to be moved.

2. After 2017 season there will be ace types available, money must be available to sign them

 

If the Twins were willing to eat large portions of his salary I could see a team taking on Nolasco as 5th arm.  Yes he is pretty bad overall, but one thing he has done is pitch lots of innings and give the bullpen a rest.  If some team has a young back-end starter they aren't comfortable with down the stretch run I could see this. 

 

However, I put the likelihood of all these parts coming together to be at about 10%.

Excuse me? A team trading for JOE Mauer? The Mauer with $46M still on contract over the next 2 years?

 

If you find a team like that, we'd probably be able to get the next Babe Ruth back.

I was just trying to think of who has long-term deals. Dozier probably fits the bill more.

 

Teams trade bad contracts, though. Mauer could be moved if a GM were creative.

I am skeptical that they will trade anyone of value - the Twins just don't do that. What ultimately might be the key to the future is jettisoning bad contracts.  Berrios needs to be here, who else?  I don't know.  But right now we have Hughes, Santana, and Nolasco ready for another year or more.  These are albatrosses that hang from Ryan's neck no matter how nice a guy he is supposed to be.  With them and Mauer what are our chances of moving on?  We have some great young players who can grow in the majors, but pitching does not show any potential.  Gibson is inconsistent and getting older than most people think.  Duffey had a great year last year, but would not be in the rotation for any good team.  He has been very bad more than very good.  So what do we have for the future?  Berrios and Santana.  Beyond that I am not excited.  DFA is our option for clearing the deck unless Antony demonstrates that he is genius. 

I'm guessing other GMs are simply waiting for the Twins to waive players and then swoop in if they actually have any interest. There is no need to actually exchange any "value" for someone who will be dumped on the street corner with a "free" sign taped on him.