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  • Twins Trade Deadline Primer


    Cody Christie

    The fireworks dust has settled and this means baseball's trade deadline is quickly approaching. Following next week's All-Star Game festivities in San Diego, contending teams will be wheeling and dealing to try to find the right pieces to push their organization to the next level.

    Minnesota's terrible first half has put them in a position to be sellers in 2016. This isn't a terrible position to be in but the Twins have been bad in recent years and the front office hasn't been willing to part with trade chips. Maybe this year will be different as Terry Ryan looks to add to one of the best farm systems in baseball.

    Who is available? What can the Twins get in return? Let's dive in...

    Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today Sports

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    Starting Pitchers: Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco

    The Twins spent a lot of money on both of these pitchers on the free agent market and it hasn't gone according to plan. Santana spent the first part of his contract being suspended for 80 games and he hasn't been anything fantastic since returning to the mound. His name has even popped up in national headlines as "perhaps the most viable trade deadline pickup on the market." Nolasco has struggled with very brief flashes of being the pitcher the Twins thought they were getting.

    With both pitchers, the Twins would have to pay some of their remaining contracts. Santana is owed $27 million over the next two seasons and Nolasco is owed $24 million during the same stretch. That's a lot of money to two pitchers that haven't lived up to expectations but maybe both could be helped by moving to the National League.

    Trading one or both of these players would free up a second half rotation spot for the likes of Jose Berrios. Some Twins fans have even started the discussion about Trevor May being stretched out and put back in the rotation. Minnesota needs to see what they have in their young pitchers and the second half can offer them that opportunity.

    Relief Pitchers: Fernando Abad

    Contending teams pay a premium for effective relief pitching near the deadline (see Matt Capps for Wilson Ramos trade). Even Minnesota traded for relief help last year when Kevin Jepsen was acquired for a pair of pitching prospects. Jensen was designated for assignment over the weekend which can show how fickle relief pitchers can be.

    Abad has run into some rough outings in the last week but he still might be one of the team's most valuable trade pieces. As a left-handed relief pitcher, he has held lefties to batting under .175 and they are getting on-base less than 21% of the time. He also comes with an extra year of team control so that adds some value to him since he can't be a free agent until 2018.

    Much like trading one of the starting pitchers would open a spot for Berrios, dealing Abad could open a role for an up-and-coming relief arm. J.T. Chargois didn't get much of a look in his brief call-up so it would be nice to see more of him in the second half.

    Position Players: Brian Dozier, Eduardo Nunez, Trevor Plouffe, Kurt Suzuki

    Dozier isn't going to be part of the next winning team in Minnesota. He has busted out of his early season slump in a big way and he's under contract for the next two seasons for and average value of $7.5 million per year. Jorge Polanco has been ready for the big leagues but the Twins have no where to put him. Trading Dozier opens up a spot for Polanco and he could bring back an intriguing prospect or two.

    Nunez has been the biggest surprise on the Twins roster this season. For the first time in his career, he has become an everyday starter and he has taken full advantage of the opportunity. He is arbitration eligible for one more season and he can play multiple spots around the infield. For a team looking for a bench player with some versatility, Nunez could be their man. It might also be the first time in a while where the Twins have sold high on a player and not waited until his value was gone.

    The Miguel Sano outfield experiment seems to be coming to an end. Plouffe's time in Minnesota has included plenty of good moments and he has become a fan favorite. However, Plouffe would likely leave in free agency after the 2017 campaign so trading him now could result in more value. A contending team might need a bat off the bench or a replacement at third and Plouffe can serve both of those roles. He will be on the disabled list until for the next couple weeks so he might be able to be dealt until the off-season.

    Much like Dozier, Suzuki has broken out of his early-season offensive slump. His contract expires at the end of the year and the Twins will likely need to go in a different direction from the aging catcher. He is below average on the defensive side of the ball but Twins pitchers have like his ability to call games. Suzuki could serve in a back-up catcher role or be asked to fill in for an injured starting catcher. His veteran leadership and experience could be intriguing.

    There's the list of potential trade targets. Who else do you think the Twins should make available? What can Minnesota get back for the pieces that they have? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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    Is the trade counter already at 2? Arcia and Jepsen were part of the opening day roster. Arcia has been moved. Jepsen is yet to be resolved. The return is minimal but similar to what we might expect from Nolasco or Plouffe. Space is cleared on the roster.

    I don't count them, as it's likely neither will return anything other than cash.

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    I don't count them, as it's likely neither will return anything other than cash.

    Fair enough.

     

    If Arcia returns a player or Jepsen gives salary relief, isn't that what we are hoping to get from the likes of Nolasco or Plouffe? I would put Santana in the salary relief group also. They might not count either.

     

    In that case, the Twins have very few veteran players worthy of a return. Everyone should go under on th number.

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    If Arcia returns a player or Jepsen gives salary relief, isn't that what we are hoping to get from the likes of Nolasco or Plouffe? I would put Santana in the salary relief group also. They might not count either.

    I don't care about salary relief for Jepsen, as he's gone after this season anyway... We can only wish the same applied to Nolasco.

     

    Nolasco counts because his absence helps the 2017 roster in two ways: rotation space and money. The same *kinda* applies to Plouffe but unlike Nolasco, the Twins are under no obligation to Trevor for 2017.

     

    I'm okay if the Twins trade Santana, I'm okay if they keep him. He hasn't been great, he hasn't been terrible. There's always space in a rotation for ONE guy like that (the problem is the Twins often have 3-4 guys like that).

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    Any player who will not be here in 2019 should be trade bait.  Here is what I would do.

    Trade one or both of Santana and Nolasco.  Both will bring returns with probably cash having to be sent as part of the deal.  This should free up room for rising starting pitchers (Berrios) and maybe others.

    Trade Abad and any other reliever (Kinzler) who has value.  Returns are possible, at the deadline who knows what clubs will need help.  Many decent clubs have shaky bullpens at this time.

    Plouffe will probably have to wait until offseason.  If I cannot move him, will have to consider a non tender.

    Dozier should bring a decent return.  If you cannot get this keep him.

    Call Mauer in and see if he will take a longer term deal to be the Twins roving ambassador.  He would still get his money or more over a longer term.  If he does not agree to this, tell him that his role will be greatly reduced the next two years and see if he will waive his no trade clause.   Would not be this year or next, but would consider DFAing him(he gets paid anyway) to see what I have behind him.

    Prepare to attempt and sign an ace after the 2017 campaign(with subtractions, there should be plenty of money for a 4 - 5 year contract). 

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    Hill going to Red Sox. Reyes with Mets. Two teams found an infielder at no or little prospect cost. Gourriel still available.

     

    How much demand will there be for Dozier, Plouffe or Nunez? Is there a supply of other players like Hill with a low cost of acquisition?

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    Hill going to Red Sox. Reyes with Mets. Two teams found an infielder at no or little prospect cost. Gourriel still available.

    I saw that Aaron Hill trade.  Aaron Wilkerson isn't exactly a prospect, but he is definitely interesting.  I would have dealt Plouffe and cash for him (obviously before Plouffe's injury, although I could see Hill as being preferable anyway).

     

    I don't think anyone is looking to Gourriel for 2016 help, at this point.

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    How much demand will there be for Dozier, Plouffe or Nunez? Is there a supply of other players like Hill with a low cost of acquisition?

    There are a few.  Danny Valencia, Zach Cozart, Yunel Escobar, and David Freese were mentioned in MLBTR's most recent top 20 trade candidate piece, as well as Sean Rodriguez, Steve Pearce, Jed Lowrie, and Mark Reynolds as guys with recent infield experience in the honorable mention group (alongside Plouffe and Nunez):

     

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/top-20-trade-candidates.html

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    Is the trade counter already at 2? Arcia and Jepsen were part of the opening day roster. Arcia has been moved. Jepsen is yet to be resolved. The return is minimal but similar to what we might expect from Nolasco or Plouffe. Space is cleared on the roster.

    jeppy was released
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