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  • Twins Trade Deadline Primer


    Cody Christie

    The fireworks dust has settled and this means baseball's trade deadline is quickly approaching. Following next week's All-Star Game festivities in San Diego, contending teams will be wheeling and dealing to try to find the right pieces to push their organization to the next level.

    Minnesota's terrible first half has put them in a position to be sellers in 2016. This isn't a terrible position to be in but the Twins have been bad in recent years and the front office hasn't been willing to part with trade chips. Maybe this year will be different as Terry Ryan looks to add to one of the best farm systems in baseball.

    Who is available? What can the Twins get in return? Let's dive in...

    Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today Sports

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    Starting Pitchers: Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco

    The Twins spent a lot of money on both of these pitchers on the free agent market and it hasn't gone according to plan. Santana spent the first part of his contract being suspended for 80 games and he hasn't been anything fantastic since returning to the mound. His name has even popped up in national headlines as "perhaps the most viable trade deadline pickup on the market." Nolasco has struggled with very brief flashes of being the pitcher the Twins thought they were getting.

    With both pitchers, the Twins would have to pay some of their remaining contracts. Santana is owed $27 million over the next two seasons and Nolasco is owed $24 million during the same stretch. That's a lot of money to two pitchers that haven't lived up to expectations but maybe both could be helped by moving to the National League.

    Trading one or both of these players would free up a second half rotation spot for the likes of Jose Berrios. Some Twins fans have even started the discussion about Trevor May being stretched out and put back in the rotation. Minnesota needs to see what they have in their young pitchers and the second half can offer them that opportunity.

    Relief Pitchers: Fernando Abad

    Contending teams pay a premium for effective relief pitching near the deadline (see Matt Capps for Wilson Ramos trade). Even Minnesota traded for relief help last year when Kevin Jepsen was acquired for a pair of pitching prospects. Jensen was designated for assignment over the weekend which can show how fickle relief pitchers can be.

    Abad has run into some rough outings in the last week but he still might be one of the team's most valuable trade pieces. As a left-handed relief pitcher, he has held lefties to batting under .175 and they are getting on-base less than 21% of the time. He also comes with an extra year of team control so that adds some value to him since he can't be a free agent until 2018.

    Much like trading one of the starting pitchers would open a spot for Berrios, dealing Abad could open a role for an up-and-coming relief arm. J.T. Chargois didn't get much of a look in his brief call-up so it would be nice to see more of him in the second half.

    Position Players: Brian Dozier, Eduardo Nunez, Trevor Plouffe, Kurt Suzuki

    Dozier isn't going to be part of the next winning team in Minnesota. He has busted out of his early season slump in a big way and he's under contract for the next two seasons for and average value of $7.5 million per year. Jorge Polanco has been ready for the big leagues but the Twins have no where to put him. Trading Dozier opens up a spot for Polanco and he could bring back an intriguing prospect or two.

    Nunez has been the biggest surprise on the Twins roster this season. For the first time in his career, he has become an everyday starter and he has taken full advantage of the opportunity. He is arbitration eligible for one more season and he can play multiple spots around the infield. For a team looking for a bench player with some versatility, Nunez could be their man. It might also be the first time in a while where the Twins have sold high on a player and not waited until his value was gone.

    The Miguel Sano outfield experiment seems to be coming to an end. Plouffe's time in Minnesota has included plenty of good moments and he has become a fan favorite. However, Plouffe would likely leave in free agency after the 2017 campaign so trading him now could result in more value. A contending team might need a bat off the bench or a replacement at third and Plouffe can serve both of those roles. He will be on the disabled list until for the next couple weeks so he might be able to be dealt until the off-season.

    Much like Dozier, Suzuki has broken out of his early-season offensive slump. His contract expires at the end of the year and the Twins will likely need to go in a different direction from the aging catcher. He is below average on the defensive side of the ball but Twins pitchers have like his ability to call games. Suzuki could serve in a back-up catcher role or be asked to fill in for an injured starting catcher. His veteran leadership and experience could be intriguing.

    There's the list of potential trade targets. Who else do you think the Twins should make available? What can Minnesota get back for the pieces that they have? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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    The Plouffe situation is a mess, as the Twins have to ask themselves...will they offer him arbitration or not. I'm sure we will have to wait to see what can happen with Plouffe (and Suzuki and Nolasco) as the season winds into August and players are put on waivers. The Twins then have the option of making a deal or letting someone walk. Plouffe only has value (as does Suzuki) if he can replace temporarily an injured party for the remainder of the season and then given walking papers to explore free agency in the fall. Dealing both for anything can be a plus, as the Twins would then be in a position to resign, if the need or desire IS there.

     

    Of course, any of the Twins waiver wire, minor league free agent guys could be flipped for something...depending on what the Twins see as depth from the minors happening next year.

     

    Don't forget that Escobar could also be a candidate as a team is looking for a solid utility guy.

     

    But most of the players mention will just bring minor league depth, maybe a prospect of two still a bit raw that COULD develop into something usable in the majors. We don't need anyone out of options or who demands a 40-man spot...unless they are truly major league ready and just blocked on another team's depth list.

     

    I say part with Santana, especially if YOU DON'T have to eat salary, and better to invest that money elsewhere, or down the road.

     

    I think Joe Mauer will pass thru August waivers unclaimed, sadly. 

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    I Disagree with this whole notion that Trevor Plouffe "only has value " or "has marginal value to any club"  or is a "average or below average trade value"

    He's actually our best trade chip or trade commodity IMO

     

    Defensively ALONE, Trevor Plouffe is worth a C to C+ prospect at the hot corner position.

     

    throw in the fact he's been playing 90% of the year un-healthy and not at his peak or usual self.

     

    I think offensively, Plouffe is a .260 hitter with 15-25 HR pop, and a low end middle of the order bat. ( Yes, I know his career average mark is probably .249 or so)

     

    There are teams out there (Giants, Mariners, and maybe even 'stros)

    WHO ARE SO LEFT handed heavy they'd give up a lot, possibly an over pay for PLOUFFE

     

    IF 

     

    he was simply healthy.

     

    The Twins will almost certainly go into the 2017 season with Trevor Plouffe on Their roster.  (Because if they do not , they are giving plouffe away at his nearly lowest end of appreciable value)

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    Hopefully the Twins learned their lesson concerning the third base/Sano/Plouffe situation and resolve the 2nd base situation, either by trading Dozier or Polanco.   Trade one of them while their value is high, don't wait until Polanco proves that he's not a player or they have a roster crunch and have to DFA him, sell high on him (or Dozier).

     

    Not holding my breath....

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    I like the idea of selling high on Nuñez. Hopefully this is a sell high time for Dozier too, due to his recent hot hitting streak. Hopefully the Twins can trade him before opposing pitchers make an adjustment & send him into another prolonged slump.

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    I Disagree with this whole notion that Trevor Plouffe "only has value " or "has marginal value to any club"  or is a "average or below average trade value"

    He's actually our best trade chip or trade commodity IMO

     

    Defensively ALONE, Trevor Plouffe is worth a C to C+ prospect at the hot corner position.

     

    throw in the fact he's been playing 90% of the year un-healthy and not at his peak or usual self.

     

    I think offensively, Plouffe is a .260 hitter with 15-25 HR pop, and a low end middle of the order bat. ( Yes, I know his career average mark is probably .249 or so)

     

    There are teams out there (Giants, Mariners, and maybe even 'stros)

    WHO ARE SO LEFT handed heavy they'd give up a lot, possibly an over pay for PLOUFFE

     

    IF 

     

    he was simply healthy.

     

    The Twins will almost certainly go into the 2017 season with Trevor Plouffe on Their roster.  (Because if they do not , they are giving plouffe away at his nearly lowest end of appreciable value)

     

    Trevor Plouffe is not good defensively anymore.  He grades out by most metrics as one of the bottom 3 or 5 3rd baseman in baseball.  The eye test confirms.  

     

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=400&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=24,d

     

     

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    Plouffe IMO will be an August salary dump, or play more of a bench role until he's let go in the offseason. The time to trade him was last offseason. We'll never know if there was real or manufactured interest for him last December.

     

    I'd also add Milone to the pitching list. Though I would think the most likely scenario is a DFA/salary dump...

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    Plouffe should be traded this offseason. Hopefully, he comes back strong and has a good last two months of the season. But it's a bummer they didn't trade him last offseason.

     

    My guess is that the Twins trade Abad, Suzuki and Santana at the deadline, with an outside shot of trading Nunez to give Polanco playing time this season. They end up waiting on Nolasco, Dozier and Plouffe until the offseason. But I wouldn't be surprised if most of these players aren't traded over the coming months. I don't have that much faith in the current regime, but I think it's obvious this team needs to make some trades.

     

     

     

     

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    There has been a flurry of July 4 action, but nothing of great interest.  It did catch Twin fans attention and this would be the time for an aggressive team to capitalize on that and move on.   A marketing of the Team for the future is better than watch our team try to avoid 100 losses. 

     

    The problem I see is that the FO and many Twins fans over rate our players.  For example Plouffe, we have grown up with him and he has been a nice story, but nothing special in the eyes of the rest of the majors.  Think about the 3B transactions from last year and Plouffe is not going to be worth what we think.

     

    Since pitching is the name of the game and teams like the Yankees and Dodgers are desperate right now we can move the huge Santana and Nolasco contracts if we work it out right and those teams would not blink at what we consider outrageous sums. 

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    Plouffe IMO will be an August salary dump, or play more of a bench role until he's let go in the offseason. The time to trade him was last offseason. We'll never know if there was real or manufactured interest for him last December.

    I'd also add Milone to the pitching list. Though I would think the most likely scenario is a DFA/salary dump...

     

    Salary dumping Plouffe wouldn't surprise me, either. But I still say they trade him this offseason for a marginal prospect. Agree with you that he should have been traded last offseason. 

     

    And Milone gets released or is relegated to mop-up duty. Also possible that they keep him as a warm body. 

     

    Bottom line is this team is a damn mess. 

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    Salary dumping Plouffe wouldn't surprise me, either. But I still say they trade him this offseason for a marginal prospect. Agree with you that he should have been traded last offseason. 

     

    And Milone gets released or is relegated to mop-up duty. Also possible that they keep him as a warm body. 

     

    Bottom line is this team is a damn mess. 

     

    Plouffe is going to be a non-tender this offseason, he won't have trade value then.  A salary dump now is probably best for all parties

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    Plouffe is going to be a non-tender this offseason, he won't have trade value then.  A salary dump now is probably best for all parties

     

    Maybe. But I bet someone takes him on for a marginal, low-level prospect. 

     

    Either way, it illustrates the team's mistake in not trading him in the offseason. 

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    The obvious response is I can't believe we are talking about moving vets and clearing spots for Berrios and Chargois on July 5th. This could have been done on May 5th.

     

    The only guys that won't be a salary dump if moved are Dozier, Abad, Santana, and Suzuki. Dozier is the only guy that could bring a top 100 prospect back.

     

    I bet we hang onto Dozier and Ervin though.

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    I'm going to bet Polanco is traded w Santana or Nolasco to get a higher end pitching/catching prospect.

    That would be okay if they are going to keep Dozier. I think they have to trade one or the other.

     

    But we need to be very clear here. Nolasco is a net negative on any trade and by a very, very wide margin. If he was a free agent right now he probably gets a one year, $5m deal at best. More likely a minor league tryout type deal. Therefore the $18m or whatever he is owed the next 1.5 years with a buyout is way too much.

    Edited by tobi0040
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    That would be okay if they are going to keep Dozier. I think they have to trade one or the other.

    But we need to be very clear here. Nolasco is a net negative on any trade and by a very, very wide margin. If he was a free agent right now he probably gets a one year, $5m deal at best. More likely a minor league tryout type deal. Therefore the $18m or whatever he is owed the next 1.5 years with a buyout is way too much.

     

    This.  I don't see why anyone is advocating throwing in a Polanco with Nolasco.  The only reason to do that is you want to save the Pohlad's some money.  Nolasco can be DFA'd and you don't need to trade Polanco to do that, the Pohlad's just have to pony up some money

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    I say we go "blow it up mode" on the roster. Sell high on Brian Dozier right now. Call the Dodgers and ask for the #20 rated prospect RHP Jose de Leon for Dozier and Kohl Stewart. If not, check with the Mets and offer Dozier for the #69 rated prospect SS Amed Rosario or #77 rated prospect SS Gavin Cecchini and a low A starter.  

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    Playoff contenders are always looking for catchers and relief pitchers after the All Star break.

     

    Abad is slowly falling back to earth.  Get on the Bat Phone as quickly as possible.  Guessing some teams will be calling on Buddy Boshers, too. Besides, Taylor Rogers is ready for a larger roll;  more that just a LOOGY.

     

    Suzuki will be a prize catch for a playoff bound team in need of a catcher.

     

    When taking a "redo" on a team, you just can't get rid of all the veterans.  You need some around to prevent the young players from hanging themselves during a bad streak. 

     

    I'm a keeper on Dozier.  I don't think you'll get much in trade. And from what I'm reading, the book is still out on Polanco.  His AAA stats are nice, but not the picture-book kind you'd want to see before a callup.  On the other hand, I believe he will be called up. 

     

    I'm also a keeper on Nunez.  He's been hitting at a consistent rate.  As a fielder, well, he hasn't injured himself too badly.

     

    Just like the regular players, you need a veteran presence on the pitching staff.  Santana seems the only real logical choice.  Nolasco is a 5-6 inning pitcher.  The only thing that's consistent about him is the strain he puts on the bullpen.  Hughes is on season-ending DL.  If even remotely possible, I'd trade Nolasco even if I had to cover part of his salary.  Hughes:  contact agent, try to get a buy-out deal.

     

    Overall:  the tryouts have already begun and there's more to come.

     

    Almost forgot about Plouffe: He's had more than a few health issues this year.  Now he has a broken rib.  Let the market decide.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

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    I'm sure this has been answered somewhere around here before but didn't Nolasco sign a 4 year deal the year before Santana? How is Nolasco owed $24 million yet and Santana only $27 million? Shouldn't it be Nolasco $12.5 million plus the rest of this year and Santana $27 million + the rest of this year? 

     

    Not that it makes much of a difference, still way more money than either should be paid.

    Edited by cgreuling
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    I'm sure this has been answered somewhere around here before but didn't Nolasco sign a 4 year deal the year before Santana? How is Nolasco owed $24 million yet and Santana only $27 million? Shouldn't it be Nolasco $12.5 million plus the rest of this year and Santana $27 million + the rest of this year? 

    You are correct. The two players make similar money, give or take $1m per year.

     

    Nolasco has 1.5 seasons left on his contract plus a buyout year. Santana has 2.5 seasons left on his contract plus a buyout year.

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    Plouffe has to go. I would put Abad in the has to go category as well. The rest have some strings attached. If you keep Dozier Polanco should get moved for value and vice versa. I would keep Santana as they need all the starting pitching they can get. I would trade Susuki if I could get something for him. If not I would sign him for cheap to be Tha backup next year.

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    My choices would be Plouffe, Dozier, Suzuki, Abad, Nolasco, and Boshers.  I'd be happy if they traded off half of those guys, and ecstatic if they traded off more. 

    My over/under is three players traded. I'm happy at that point. Four or more and I'm :D. Two or less and I'm :(.

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    Is the trade counter already at 2? Arcia and Jepsen were part of the opening day roster. Arcia has been moved. Jepsen is yet to be resolved. The return is minimal but similar to what we might expect from Nolasco or Plouffe. Space is cleared on the roster.

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