Twins Trade Aaron Hicks To Yankees For Catcher

I like Hicks better than Murphy. Nothing against Murphy who I think can be a decent catcher, but I believe Hicks really did find himself this last season.

I hope the Twins didn't give up on Hicks because they just didn't like him.

Second column from the right. I would also use the pergame data because there are a lot of catchers listed who caught 0-1,000 pitches. Total strikes doesn't make for good ranking, IMO. Suzuki is not a great catcher. I just noted my surprise that his 2015 strikes added/lost per game is essentially zero, considering how bad the data looked for 2014.

I think we are looking at two different pages. All I see are Frame Chances/Predicted Strikes/Actual Strikes/Extra Strikes/Framing Runs Added By Count... etc

But I agree, Suzuki was awful last year.

If Murphy is used correctly, then this trade could add value in two ways:

Murphy > Suzuki

Buxton/Arcia/Kepler eventually > Hicks

By moving Hicks you allow him to be replaced by a more productive player.  By acquiring Murphy you increase the production from the C position, assuming (and this is the huge IF when it comes to the Twins) Murphy has been brought in to do more than catch 30 games as a backup.  The overall benefit could be 1-3 wins - not season-changing in itself, but a useful step in a grander plan.

Only caveat to the above is whether Hicks could have returned more value elsewhere in the market (eg one or two upside RPs).  I don't know the answer to that, but on balance I am OK with the trade without being wildly excited by it.

Hitter BABIP (unlike pitcher BABIP that will eventually regress to the norm of .290) is hitter-dependent.  Some slap hitters (think Ben Revere) have high BABIPs and some power hitters have lower BABIPs.  Has to do with what kind of hitter someone is.   So you check a hitter's BABIP against his previous (majors or minors work) vs. against the league.   Caution:  Sometimes prospects change their hitting styles when getting into their primes.  That will change their BABIPs.  Poster boy:  Dozier.

Batter BABIP is also very much susceptible to regression.  Great hitters can maintain a higher one than normal.  Faster player may have an extra touch due to speed, but a .357 BABIP is unlikely to be maintained.

'For hitters, we use BABIP as a sanity test of sorts that tells us if their overall batting line is sustainable or not. Virtually no hitter is capable of producing a BABIP of .380 or higher on a regular basis and anything in the .230 range is also very atypical for a major league hitter. In other words, BABIP allows us to see if a hitter seems to be getting a boost from poor defense or good luck or getting docked for facing good defenses and having bad luck.

A hitter has control over how often they put the ball in play and how hard they hit the ball, but due to the unpredictable nature of luck and defense, their BABIP may not be a perfect reflection of their performance to date and it is easier to observe this fluctuation when looking at BABIP compared to wOBA, OBP, or SLG for example.'

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/babip/

This trade bums me out. I can't believe the Twins traded Willie Banks for Matt Walbeck. What are they thinking?

I watch a lot of Yankees games on MLB dot com.  Yankees are high on Murphy, and he did nothing to disappoint. 

Folks, realize that the Yankee kingdom is large, and has its critics, plus a long history in baseball, and their fans and hangers-ons, including MEDIA, are discriminating in the extreme. 

Ergo:  You don't get to be the Yankees Number 2 catcher, unless Yankee Kingdom is willing to have you be their Number one catcher.   Not to mention, their manager, Joe Girardi, a former Yankee catcher, and head chieftain of Yankee nation.   Because, catchers get hurt, ALL THE TIME, and generally, need to be given a break, every week, if not one in five days.

Kid Murphy is worth something.  He can play.  He's got make-up.  He cares about doing his job well.  He's got training, watchful eyes have been on him ALL THE TIME.  Every day.   And he's young. 

We do not know, nor can we, how a kid this young, who won the confidence of Yankee Kingdom, will develop.  Did I mention he is young? 

This trade is about the future.  Not something that is easy to predict or control.  Will Hicks or Murphy develop themselves better over time?  Whose character is in a better gear to advance?  

Twins have a front-row seat here.  They scouted Murphy as a teen and have had Hicks since he was 18. 

I like the odds that the Twins know what they are doing.  I really do.  And, to be fair, for the last three years of Hicks-hating on this site -- and no one has admitted it here, even though it was prevalent and out of all proportion to what Hicks had on offer -- I have, at times, been one of few standing up for him. 

I think Murphy is solid.  I hate losing Hicks, but he is balding, at 26, and we do have Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, Arcia, Walker, and other options.

Today we got a young catcher with good training and pedigree.  I sleep well tonight.

The price of catchers is stiff.  The Twins drafted several catchers a few years back--but their utility has been marginal.  CFers?  The Twins draft them and trade them like BB cards.  Hicks didn't develop the way they wished--take pitches, work the count, get walks, long ABs, and still hit above league batting average.  Then they changed--put Dozier at the top, and say "let 'er rip! Brian".  Get HRs, doubles, and forget taking pitches to work the count, build pitch count/get walks.  Hicks might have had more success if he had such "swing freedom" but we'll never know.  The Twins are loaded with OFers (and added one in a trade!).  The job is waiting for Buxton (while the FO prays he doesn't become Hicks II.  I think Rosario begins in CF and is flanked by two wide-bodies unless Plouffe is traded--which is probably best for the Twins because I don't see Plouffe as a foundation stone of a long-term winner.

I think Murphy is solid.  I hate losing Hicks, but he is balding, at 26, and we do have Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, Arcia, Walker, and other options.

 

Today we got a young catcher with good training and pedigree.  I sleep well tonight.

Well, the fact that Murphy isn't balding yet is certainly a good sign :-)  

LOL, funny how some of the same people (not necessarily at Twins Daily, but probably some here too) that were demanding Mauer to move back to catcher are now upset that the Twins traded for a catcher that had a higher OPS than Mauer last year. Yes I understand that part of the Mauer thing is about freeing up 1st base, which isn't an issue with Murphy. I still think it is funny though.

I think it's funny that people point to Murphy's OPS without taking into account his BABIP or his home/away splits.