Twins Sign RHP Michael Pineda

Yeah, but after signing Darvish, signing/trading for another reliever/starter at another $8-15 M a year for a multi-year contract, extending Dozier and Mauer, and extensions for Buxton, and one or two more of our pre-arb guys, that $21 M number is going to come way way up. It would be nice to have enough flexibility next offseason to take stock of where we are, and then spend accordingly, rather than trying to predict where we will be next offseason right now and spending $10 million. Yes, this deal has upside if he recovers completely and quickly from TJ, but that's a HUGE if.

I'm okay with not extending Dozier or Mauer if the FO feels money might becomes an issue a few years down the road when Rosario, Sano and Buxton approach free agency, especially if that means we get Darvish or Lynn instead.

I like this move. It's all contingent on Pineda recovering, but if he does, he brings some badly needed strikeout ability in the rotation and, as mentioned earlier, getting out of Yankee Stadium should do his HR/9 wonders. 

There's still plenty to be done for 2018, of course. I've heard the Twins are targeting Steve Cishek, and that'd be a great signing if it happened. 

A large amount of money and higher risk by typical "Twins" standards.  However, in the grand scheme of MLB market and money, it's still a modest amount, and modest risk. This move signifies to me that the Twins are willing spend some money, and might spend a little more money soon on a bigger puzzle piece.  Keep it up!  

It looks like the Twins  have signed  a 10 million dollar reliever to pitch one year in 2019, with no options after 2019...his first year back from Tommy John surgery. I'm not impressed.

In essence they are paying him $10 million for the 2019 season if he doesn't pitch in 2018. Seems like a lot for a pitcher coming off Tommy John and may end up in the bullpen. With that in mind then we can assume they will be willing to spend even more for a pitcher that can actually pitch in 2018.... Right?

It looks like the Twins  have signed  a 10 million dollar reliever to pitch one year in 2019, with no options after 2019...his first year back from Tommy John surgery. I'm not impressed.

Are you suggesting they should have signed him to a longer contract?

This kind of move isn't unprecedented. Tyson Ross. Kris Medlen. Drew Smyly. Etc.

I'm a little surprised by the negative opinions on this signing.

Worse case scenario: we lit $10M on fire. MLB teams do that all the time.

Median scenario: he comes back in Aug and pitches from the bullpen the rest of the year. 2019 he pitches like a good #4 starter, which, at $8M, is an underpay. He becomes a free agent and we thank him for his time here.

Really Good Scenario: Same as above but he pitches like a 2/3, which $8M is a severe underpay, we extend him a QO and are happy if we get him for 1/18, or he declines and we get the 35th pick in the 2020 draft for the trouble.

Other scenarios include him being a good bullpen arm for 1.25 years or flipping him at the 2019 deadline.

Neither is wonderful or terrible.

Just for the sake of argument, if Pineda had not blown out his arm and his early year stats projected out the whole year...

A) what would he rank in terms of free agent starting pitchers

B.) what kind of contract would he be looking at getting?

Obviously a good signing. 

When these moves work out, people freak out about why the Twins don't make these kind of moves.   When the Twins make these kind of moves, people freak out about the risk they won't work out.

Are you suggesting they should have signed him to a longer contract?

 

This kind of move isn't unprecedented. Tyson Ross. Kris Medlen. Drew Smyly. Etc.

I'm saying the first year (2 million dollars plus the cost of training facilities and trainers, etc.) will yield  no 2018 benefit, I have no stats to prove this, but it is my belief that many pitchers are cautious, or cautiously used, or just not ready. the first year back after TJ surgery (8 million dollars more plus a roster spot) which will be for 2019, Then  the Twins must bid him good-bye, no matter whether he is a huge successor a huge disappointment. However if the Twins had a team option then the Twins would have a choice of keeping him if he should become a huge success in 2019 (which we all hope will happen) and  he will merit pitching for the Twins in 2020, or letting him go with little or no buy out ,if his performance in 2019 is not worth a spot on the team.

Pitchers are cautious?

I'm saying the first year (2 million dollars plus the cost of training facilities and trainers, etc.) will yield no 2018 benefit, I have no stats to prove this, but it is my belief that many pitchers are cautious, or cautiously used, or just not ready. the first year back after TJ surgery (8 million dollars more plus a roster spot) which will be for 2019, Then the Twins must bid him good-bye, no matter whether he is a huge successor a huge disappointment. However if the Twins had a team option then the Twins would have a choice of keeping him if he should become a huge success in 2019 (which we all hope will happen) and he will merit pitching for the Twins in 2020, or letting him go with little or no buy out ,if his performance in 2019 is not worth a spot on the team.

I agree that a team option for 2020 would have been nice, but I don't think it's a mistake there isn't one. For all we know, that was a deal breaker for Piñeda. If he pitches well next year, they can offer him a QO and get a decent draft pick.

I'm saying the first year (2 million dollars plus the cost of training facilities and trainers, etc.) will yield no 2018 benefit, I have no stats to prove this, but it is my belief that many pitchers are cautious, or cautiously used, or just not ready. the first year back after TJ surgery (8 million dollars more plus a roster spot) which will be for 2019, Then the Twins must bid him good-bye, no matter whether he is a huge successor a huge disappointment. However if the Twins had a team option then the Twins would have a choice of keeping him if he should become a huge success in 2019 (which we all hope will happen) and he will merit pitching for the Twins in 2020, or letting him go with little or no buy out ,if his performance in 2019 is not worth a spot on the team.

Talking about the cost of trainers and training facilities makes us sound like a pathetically small market. That's the type of stuff that might go through the Marlins FO's minds, but should never ever even come up from good organizations

Not sure what the answer to B is, but there's a good indication to the answer to A in this Fangraphs article from last December.

 

Listed in a tier of top potential FA SPs is Darvish, Arrieta, Danny Duffy (who signed an extension) and Pineda. The next tier of depth guys included Lynn, Cobb, Chatwood and others. So it's a good guess Pineda would have been the third-ranked SP if healthy.

Good find.

I'm of the opinion (granted, it's a totally uneducated, unsourced, long shot, play the lottery if I'm right opinion) that Arrieta will end up signing a 1yr contract this offseason (for like 25M. He'll bet on himself because nobody will take on the 4+ year risk that he's asking for. I understand this is a long shot and his 6/150 will probably be announced 5 minutes after I post this, but I'm just not seeing any interest in him yet. He'll get some 2 year offers, but he'll opt for the 1 year route and test the process again next year.

Anyway.... this is like a $10m make good contract.