Twins, Rockies Talk Tulowitzki

It's about opportunity cost. The Twins need Berrios because their rotation isn't young enough or good enough yet and after Jose, there's no help on the horizon for at least 12 months, probably more like 24 months.

 

The Twins also have a handful of decent, though unspectacular, shortstops. One of them should be able to fill the void for a year or two.

 

If we were talking about a good catcher, Berrios is definitely on the table because the Twins have other starting pitching prospects but absolutely zero legitimate catching prospects.

 

But for a 30 year old shortstop? No, I don't think that's a good use of resources. Tulo may be a 5 WAR player but a 2 WAR catcher has the same net effect for the Minnesota Twins and there's zero chance the catching situation will improve in 2015 or 2016 unless Pinto magically stops being awful behind the dish.

 

So go find a catcher. Chances are it might not even cost you Berrios. You might be able to get it done for Kepler + stuff. You make the same net team improvement but you get to keep your "big three" in the process and you're not on the hook for nearly $100m during a decline phase.

so, they are good enough next year, w/o 9 banked wins, with the same players to go all in? How does that work, exactly?

Or are you suggesting they are going to sign ANOTHER SP, and C and SS? I'm confused, frankly.

There is reason to be excited about the Twins as they move towards 2017. By then key young players will have hundreds of games under their belts. They could really mess that up committing to Tulowitzki.

Look at his defensive metrics. You may not buy the metric in terms of how it equates to runs but you can see the steady decline since his rookie year. This year he is below average. By 2017 or possibly earlier he won't be a shortstop. Where are they going to play him and his big contract. He could easily join Joe Mauer making 20 million for ordinary offense from a corner position. They will also still have the burden of Hughes, Santana and Nolasco's contracts and performance from them that might equate to a fifth starter or worse.

At the same time they have key young players entering their prime, they will have huge commitments to decline phase players handcuffing the front office and ensuring the team will be mediocre.

The Rockies need to find a team foolish enough to take this contract. I hope it isn't the Twins.

now we are punting 2015 and 2016, and can't expect a good team until 2017? Man, those bars keep moving....

I gotta say, some people are making solid arguments against the home/road split "problem".

But the biggest issue is still the fact that he's only made it to 500 at-bats three times in his entire career.  Only 300 or so (and sometimes less) the last three years.  That's the scariest part.

It wasn't a comparison to Walker or even an attempt to diminish Tulo's ability. It's a fact that players coming out of Coors often suffer a large decline in batting average because they no longer get to spray balls into an outfield the size a Wal-Mart parking lot.

 

Or maybe you can explain why the Rockies, as a team, perennially have a .070-.110 drop in batting average between their home and road games. Or maybe you can explain why the Rockies lead the NL in home batting average almost every single year, yet rarely crack the top half of the NL in road batting average.

I don't care about the rest of the Rockies, I care that Tulo and his .819 road OPS makes him one of the best 3 hitting SS each of the last 5+ years., often times being tops overall!

I gotta say, some people are making solid arguments against the home/road split "problem".

 

But the biggest issue is still the fact that he's only made it to 500 at-bats three times in his entire career.  Only 300 or so (and sometimes less) the last three years.  That's the scariest part.

500+ PA 5 years.

And yeah, the injury concern is why the price for him isn't super sky high, if he was a 100% sure thing to play 162 games a year, then the asking price likely starts at Buxton PLUS Berrios and more.

I gotta say, some people are making solid arguments against the home/road split "problem".

 

But the biggest issue is still the fact that he's only made it to 500 at-bats three times in his entire career.  Only 300 or so (and sometimes less) the last three years.  That's the scariest part.

And still put up 5 WAR every year.....then add 1 WAR for his replacement! wow.....

And still put up 5 WAR every year.....then add 1 WAR for his replacement! wow.....

Frankly, to hell with WAR in a situation like that, it's not the best use of the stat.

 If your best player can't take the field that often it's a problem and it's unlikely to get better with age.

You can't use WAR that way. Escobar gets a huge deduction for starting games in LF. He is getting compared to the bat of a replacement level LF. You need to look at the splits and probably need to use last year also to get enough fielding data.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2015&month=38&season1=2015&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Escobar's WAR as a SS is 0.5 (positive) in just 69 PA!

 

Tulowitzki is 1.7 as a SS in 322 PA.

 

The Twins are getting the median production from their shortstop position this year and that production is being pulled down by Danny Santana. They can fix the position by playing Escobar and Nunez (using Nunez when they  throw a fly ball pitcher)

Nunez should not be playing SS at the major league level, for any time, frankly he shouldn't even be on a contending teams roster all together.

now we are punting 2015 and 2016, and can't expect a good team until 2017? Man, those bars keep moving....

Twins have the third best record in the AL and folks are all like: "Nope, better punt this year! There is question marks in the bullpen! and other places" implying that every other team doesn't have question marks.

There's no good &^%$ing reason why he isn't the starting SS.

Yeah there is, and that reason is he isn't a good defensive SS at all and he has zero range. If he was good or had any range, then the Twins wouldn't have lost the 10 inning game against Oakland, any real SS would have made the routine play and had the Oakland hitter out by 4 steps, instead you have Escobar who had to dive because of his lack of range, and his lack of arm failed to even get the runner at that point anyways.

What both sides are ignoring is that there's a huge middle ground between "punt" and "all-in".

 

I'm all for tempered, rational acquisitions to keep the team in the hunt this season. What I'm against is pushing all the chips into the middle of the table.

Trading just ONE (berrios) of the Twins prospects and a couple other solid but not great prospects in a very deep system is not pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table. Maybe if it was for a rental, but Tulo is not a rental and would be a significant upgrade for the next 4 years at the very least.

Thank you.  If the Twins do not move all their chips in and not aim for a WS title this year, that doesn't meant they have punted the season.

But Tulo gives the Twins a better shot at winning the world series not only this year, but also as well  in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019.

A package lead by Berrios I could see, but not Gibson.  That would be an instant deal-breaker for me.  

A package lead by Berrios I could see, but not Gibson.  That would be an instant deal-breaker for me.  

I agree with this.

 particularly when you have a sucking black hole at starting catcher.

Sign, you can be such a baseball pleb at times Brock.

Getting Tulo in no way prevents the Twins from finding an upgrade for Suzuki. They can get AJ for next to nothing or have the Rockies ship over Hundley as well.

Plus in the off-season you can always trade a guy like Plouffe or Arcia for a longer term fit at catcher if you need be.

I'll give you 2016 but it gets murky after that and I seriously doubt Tulo is a critical piece of the 2019 World Champion Minnesota Twins.

in 2018 he will only be 33, we are't talking about a current 35 year old player, he is only 30 now, to imply he suddenly won't be an asset in his early 30's is pretty silly.

Even if he has to move off of SS in 2018 (pretty unlikely) his .819 road OPS still plays anywhere (almost .50 points higher then Plouffe in his breakout year this year)

2016 Twins lineup:

1. Buxton CF

2. Mauer 1B

3. Sano DH

4. Dozier 2B

5. Tulo SS

6. Plouffe 3B

7. Rosario LF

8. Hundley C

9. Hicks RF

That's a world series capable lineup right there.