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  • Twins, Rockies Talk Tulowitzki


    Jeremy Nygaard

    First and foremost, there are literally hundreds of thousands of trade conversations that happen between teams throughout the season and especially as the end of July rolls around. If the Twins weren’t talking to every team about ways to improve their team, that would be extremely disappointing.

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    Jim Bowden posted a piece called Anatomy of a Trade (Insider required) yesterday at ESPN and - to everyone’s surprise - it was fantastic. It discusses how trades come together and he goes through a hypothetical trade that takes place… and how it progresses over the course of nearly 40 days.

    This hypothetical trade ends with both teams coming to an agreement at the deadline. But you must keep in mind that for every one that goes through, there are probably hundreds that never grow legs and die.

    One conversation that I can confirm has happened - and continues to happen - is between the Twins and the Colorado Rockies. It’s still in the infant stages. In fact, the idea sprouted after an All-Star break where the Twins All-Star second baseman, Brian Dozier, and the Rockies All-Star shortstop, Troy Tulowitzki, “bonded.”

    As Bowden suggests in his piece, the first call is made and the initial offer is “usually lopsided and downright embarrassing.” I don’t know who made the first offer, but the Rockies’ top target is Kyle Gibson. They’ve also asked for Miguel Sano. The Twins target? Troy Tulowitzki.

    Where do negotiations go from here? If the Rockies insist on a top arm, there are really only a couple of options. Besides Gibson, you’d have to imagine that Jose Berrios will be brought up. And possibly Trevor May and/or Alex Meyer to a lesser extent. But as far the “headliner” goes, only Gibson and Berrios could really fit in that category.

    With ten days to go, this discussion could really morph in a lot of different directions. In the right deal, the Rockies would be willing to send some cash. (Seth covered Tulowitzki’s contract really well in this piece posted early today, so I don’t feel the need to re-hash it.) In any deal where money is sent, the Rockies would ask for a better return.

    Would the Twins have interest in acquiring other pieces from the Rockies? Both LaTroy Hawkins and John Axford could be valuable additions to the Twins bullpen. The Twins have also asked about Rockies catcher Nick Hundley, who is under contract through next season and having his best offensive season since 2011.

    If you’re wondering how the Rockies could deal the face of their franchise, it seems like they might be ready to move on from the duo of Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, with star 3B Nolan Arenado and All-Star 2B D.J. LaMahieu taking over. Moving Tulo, CarGo and potentially Charlie Blackmon could add a lot of valuable pieces to a franchise who has struggled almost as badly as the Twins have over the past five seasons.

    None of that means that a deal is going to happen. Not with the Twins or with anyone else. All things have to line up perfectly for a deal to get done.

    As one source familiar with the talks told me, if the Twins make it through their gauntlet-of-a-week this week, “talks will get serious and move fast.”

    Whether you like Tulowitzki or not, the Twins are having conversations with the intent of getting better this year.

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    This is a rather large tough part that sort of undermines the "win now" aspect of doing this trade....no?

    The benefit of Tulo (this year and the following years) is much greater than Gibson.  you might consider that undermining but they still improve.  It would be better if Kohl Stewart (or someone else with a high profile) was doing awesome in A ball and could be the centerpiece but you have to give up something to get something.

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    For the sake of our projected playoff series winning percentage, they are more or less interchangeable.  Gibson does not stand out from that group to the degree you claim.

    I mean "interchangeable" as in "one of those players should be removed for the other".

     

    A playoff rotation of Gibson, Hughes, May, whatever is vastly superior to a playoff rotation of Hughes, May, whatever, whatever and I don't see how that's even debatable.

     

    Having Pelfrey or Milone in a playoff rotation is questionable. Having both of them in a playoff rotation is begging for a quick exit.

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    The benefit of Tulo (this year and the following years) is much greater than Gibson.  you might consider that undermining but they still improve.  It would be better if Kohl Stewart (or someone else with a high profile) was doing awesome in A ball and could be the centerpiece but you have to give up something to get something.

     

    I don't disagree it's probably a net gain (if Tulo stays on the field, I'm going to keep emphasizing this because it is a much bigger factor than anything else IMO), but if I'm going to give something to help me now, I'd rather focus on giving things that aren't helping me right now.

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    This rumor doesn't appear to be on Rockies fans' radar at all.

    It doesn't appear anywhere except Twins Daily.  Jeremy, could doubts about your source be holding this back from, say, MLBTR?

     

    Looking back at Jeremy's article, the Rockies' "top target" is Gibson and "they've also asked for" Sano. I interpret that as meaning they would want both for Tulo.  That's a high price, but it's mostly on the Sano side, as he still has superstar upside (and still potentially at 3B).

     

    I think it was mentioned upthread, but if the Twins offered Gibson + stuff for Tulo, with no Sano/Berrios/Buxton, it might be difficult for the Colorado GM to keep his composure long enough to politely end the conversation and hang up the phone.

     

    The idea that the TWINS would be the ones to walk away from such a deal is crazy.

     

    EDITED: to add "+ stuff" :)

    Edited by spycake
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    I don't disagree it's probably a net gain (if Tulo stays on the field, I'm going to keep emphasizing this because it is a much bigger factor than anything else IMO), but if I'm going to give something to help me now, I'd rather focus on giving things that aren't helping me right now.

    Yep. I don't see the point of acquiring a player who costs a lot and has reached his peak at the expense of a cheap player who appears to be reaching his peak.

     

    I'm not against acquiring Tulo but I have my doubts... But not if it costs the Twins a valuable player who is contributing to the 2015 squad.

     

    I don't see how people envision a Twins team that wins this October without Gibson starting the first or second game of the series.

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    It doesn't appear anywhere except Twins Daily.  Jeremy, could doubts about your source be holding this back from, say, MLBTR?

     

    Looking back at Jeremy's article, the Rockies' "top target" is Gibson and "they've also asked for" Sano. I interpret that as meaning they would want both for Tulo.  That's a high price, but it's mostly on the Sano side, as he still has superstar upside (and still potentially at 3B).

     

    I think it was mentioned upthread, but if the Twins offered Gibson for Tulo, with no Sano/Berrios/Buxton, it might be difficult for the Colorado GM to keep his composure long enough to politely end the conversation and hang up the phone.

     

    The idea that the TWINS would be the ones to walk away from such a deal is crazy.

    I don't know about anyone else in this thread but I was working under the assumption that Gibson straight up for Tulo wasn't even a consideration.

     

    My assumption was Gibson + stuff for Tulo.

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    Brock. ...where does the mythical ace come from next year? Or the year after?

    Where did I say anything about an ace?

     

    One thing I do know is that you're not going to find a "mythical ace" or anything resembling such a thing by trading your best starting pitcher.

     

    And how do the Twins get that "mythical ace" when they've committed $20m to Tulo and lost their best starter? Your argument is illogical.

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    A playoff rotation of Gibson, Hughes, May, whatever is vastly superior to a playoff rotation of Hughes, May, whatever, whatever and I don't see how that's even debatable.

    I think "vastly" is the problematic word here.  In baseball, "vastly superior" is the difference between Kershaw and Correia for one game.

     

    The difference between Gibson and May/Pelfrey/Milone for 25% of a playoff rotation cannot be described as "vast."

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    I mean "interchangeable" as in "one of those players should be removed for the other".

     

    A playoff rotation of Gibson, Hughes, May, whatever is vastly superior to a playoff rotation of Hughes, May, whatever, whatever and I don't see how that's even debatable.

     

    Having Pelfrey or Milone in a playoff rotation is questionable. Having both of them in a playoff rotation is begging for a quick exit.

    except May isn't even in the rotation  now so why would it be Gibson, Hughes, May?

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    I'd be extremely happy if both Buxton and Sano were better than Tulo in 2017.

    I just wouldn't bet on it. I wouldn't bet on either being better, much less both.

    BTW, if we aren't winning a championship in 2017 with Tulo as the best player, how the heck are we winning one if he's not even on the team?

    By taking the20M we would have paid him an investing it plus a little more to get a top of the rotation FA.  So, we would have this FA pitcher plus all of the guys we would give up to get Tulo.

     

    Short term, Tulo would no doubt improve the team but even with him this team is not ready to contend for real.  I would bet the cumulative war of the players we give up would be considerable higher than Tulo alone in 2018-2021.  So its short term thinking.  Fans want instant gratification but the odds are this is a bad trade for the final half of the assumed contract.  Of course, that right when the Twins core has matured and ready to win (like KC).  It is also the point in time where Mauer, Santana, and Nolasco will be off the books leaving room to lock down Sano and Buxton and probably add a premier FA to fill whatever happens to be our greatest need at that time if we don't screw up the management of payroll.  

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    Don't you keep saying they can't win in the playoffs with this staff?

    I have my doubts about this team as a whole.

     

    But I know that making the staff considerably worse isn't going to improve their chances in October.

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    I don't know about anyone else in this thread but I was working under the assumption that Gibson straight up for Tulo wasn't even a consideration.

     

    My assumption was Gibson + stuff for Tulo.

    I didn't mean straight-up, sorry if that wasn't clear.

     

    But unless Sano, Berrios, or Buxton is part of that extra "stuff", I still think the end result is the same.

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    Tulo as your SS for the playoff series is vastly superior to Santana......

    I think everyone here can agree on one thing:

     

    Danny Santana should not be the starting SS on the Minnesota Twins. Whether he's replaced by Tulowitzki or a cardboard cutout of Deanna Troi is another argument entirely.

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    I think everyone here can agree on one thing:

     

    Danny Santana should not be the starting SS on the Minnesota Twins. Whether he's replaced by Tulowitzki or a cardboard cutout of Deanna Troi is another argument entirely.

     

    I like the Troi idea, but only if I get cable again and can actually watch.....

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    MLR, it's not as easy as adding up all the WAR of the guys they trade. Only 25 guys are on the roster at a time........it's not likely that all 3-5 players they gave up would even play on this roster.

     

    It would be cool if the Twins took the $20MM they aren't spending on Tulo and bought an elite SP......

     

    Here is the list of all the times they've done that in their history:

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    By taking the20M we would have paid him an investing it plus a little more to get a top of the rotation FA.  So, we would have this FA pitcher plus all of the guys we would give up to get Tulo.

    Lester got $155 million, Scherzer $190 million.  Do you really see the Twins bidding at that level for Price, Cueto, Zimmermann, or Greinke?

     

    By all means, if they've targeted one of those guys and are prepared to bid that much, that's cool too.  But somehow I doubt it (almost as much as I doubt they'd actually swing a trade for Tulo :) ).

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    I think "vastly" is the problematic word here.  In baseball, "vastly superior" is the difference between Kershaw and Correia for one game.

     

    The difference between Gibson and May/Pelfrey/Milone for 25% of a playoff rotation cannot be described as "vast."

    33%20-%20beer%20macro%20stone_cold_steve

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    I think everyone reasonable that knows baseball can agree on one thing:

     

    Escobar should not be the starting SS on the Minnesota Twins. Whether he's replaced by Tulowitzki or a cardboard cutout of Deanna Troi is another argument entirely.

     

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    I was thinking more like Gibson + Kepler but YMMV.

    You think they'd turn down Gibson, but take Gibson + Kepler?  Again, I like Kepler, but it seems you're making these guys out to be WAY more of difference-makers than they actually are (Gibson alone in our playoff rotation, and Kepler alone in any trade proposal).

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    You think they'd turn down Gibson, but take Gibson + Kepler?  Again, I like Kepler, but it seems you're making these guys out to be WAY more of difference-makers than they actually are (Gibson alone in our playoff rotation, and Kepler alone in any trade proposal).

    Kepler isn't great but he looks like he's going to profile as a solid MLB regular. That has value. He's 22 years old and tearing up AA.
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    I'd be shocked if Trevor May isn't in the rotation by the end of August.

     

    didn't you say that about the ASB or so also?

     

    so, 6 more weeks of their 2nd best pitcher sitting on the sidelines and doing nothing? But, ya, they are w/o a flaw in leadership/FO/manager....

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    MLR, it's not as easy as adding up all the WAR of the guys they trade. Only 25 guys are on the roster at a time........it's not likely that all 3-5 players they gave up would even play on this roster.

     

    It would be cool if the Twins took the $20MM they aren't spending on Tulo and bought an elite SP......

     

    Here is the list of all the times they've done that in their history:

    If I could give this 1,000,000 likes I would. The Twins have never, ever, ever in their history went after an Ace SP in FA. Give the FO some credit, even they knew they were going after 2nd-tier pitchers the last 2 offseasons for Hughes, Nolasco, and Santana. They didn't even come close to the true aces available those years (Tanaka in 13, Scherzer and Shields last year)

     

    Brock + others have brought up that if Gibson was traded, our staff isn't good enough for the playoffs. Worthy argument. However, how can you argue that the lineup would be good enough anyway for the playoffs?

     

    We're not trading for Tulo so he can be Ozzie Smith in the field. Hes brought on to be a #3 hitter in our lineup, so we can move either Hunter or Mauer further down the chain. If a guy in a "decline phase" still manages to have a 41 game on-base streak, I will take that all day long.

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    Kepler isn't great but he looks like he's going to profile as a solid MLB regular. That has value. He's 22 years old and tearing up AA.

    Sure he has value, but he alone isn't going to sink or swim a Tulowitzki trade.  Just like Gibson is a good pitcher, but isn't alone going to sink or swim out postseason chances.

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    didn't you say that about the ASB or so also?

     

    so, 6 more weeks of their 2nd best pitcher sitting on the sidelines and doing nothing? But, ya, they are w/o a flaw in leadership/FO/manager....

    To be fair, Brock isn't one of the posters that blanket defends the leadership.

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