Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

  • REPORT: Twins Working to Acquire Padres RHP Chris Paddack

    Nick Nelson

    By Nick Nelson

    According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Twins are on the verge of acquiring San Diego Padres starter Chris Paddack.

    The 26-year-old would bring a controllable arm with upside to the needy Minnesota rotation. 

    Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    Although Derek Falvey had suggested that the team was ready to roll with its existing group of starters, fans know better than to take such remarks at face value. On the eve of (postponed) Opening Day, the Twins look to be adding an intriguing asset in Paddack, who was a top prospect turned outstanding big-league starter not so long ago.

    Details are scant at this point, but Rosenthal reports that the Twins are "working to acquire" the right-hander, who was known to be available after the Padres traded for A's starter Sean Manaea (thought to be another Twins target) last weekend. 

    That language does not suggest any finality, but Rosenthal is not the type to report something like this on a whim. It's likely a deal is about to materialize.

    Of note: Trevor Larnach was pulled from the St. Paul Saints lineup just ahead of game time tonight.

    Paddack was ranked by MLB.com as the 34th-best prospect in baseball ahead of 2019, and arrived in the majors that year with a bang, posting a 3.33 ERA and 2.4 fWAR over 26 starts (140 innings) for the Padres. 

    He struggled a bit in the shortened 2020 season, posting a 4.73 ERA in 12 starts, and last year was rough – at least according to his 5.07 ERA. But his 3.78 FIP and 3.87 xFIP suggest a good amount of bad luck was at play. He kept the homers in check, kept his velocity steady (averaging 95 MPH with the fastball), and maintained his excellent control.

    With a few tweaks, the Twins could get Paddack back on track as a strong #2/3 type starter, and he's under team control for three more seasons. Don't be fooled by the numbers from last year – which new Minnesota bench coach Jayce Tingler saw play out first-hand as Padres manager. This would be a big get.

    Nick is a co-founder of Twins Daily who's been writing about the team for more than 15 years.
    Follow Nick Nelson on Twitter: NickNelsonMN

    MORE FROM TWINS DAILY
    — Latest Twins coverage from our writers
    — Recent Twins discussion in our forums
    — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
    — Become a Twins Daily Caretaker

     Share
     Share
    Go to articles

    Community Blogs

    • How many games will the Minnesota Twins win in 2023?
    • Gopher Preview (Week 3)

    Forum Topics

    • PVTEST
    • Hey, look here
    • This is an exceptionally long title to test how various points look on a phone and smaller devices
    The Ultimate Minnesota Twins Gift Ideas Shopping Guide

    User Feedback

    Recommended Comments



    Featured Comments

    Devilsadvocate

    Devilsadvocate 39

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    45 minutes ago, Ryan_K said:

    I am thinking a Paddack and Gore for Larnach, Rogers may be in play.

    I'm thinking you're crazy... Gore straight up for Rogers may not even meet the Padres asking price. He was and still is a heck of a prospect.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    MN_ExPat

    MN_ExPat 1,845

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    38 minutes ago, Rigby said:

    With these names thought Campusano might be in play - until they traded Caratini today.

    Honestly, with the ask of Rogers, he would have to be (at least in my uneducated, slightly moronic mindset).

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    2wins87

    2wins87 1,226

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    31 minutes ago, Azviking101 said:

    I don't understand how Rogers' "value" using that trade scenario is only 7.2

    You should read their explainer, there's a lot of work that went into it and most front offices use pretty similar models, though they could differ quite a bit on certain inputs.

    The short answer is that Rogers is only under control for one more year and is already making a salary of 7.3 million. The 7.2 million valuation is his excess value over this one year of control. His total valuation would be 14.5 million for this year.

    Paddack would be under control for 3 years, is only owed 2.3 million this year, and is likely to earn raises in arbitration up to a point that is probably similar to Rogers for his final year.  The 17.4 million valuation is his projected excess beyond those salaries over the total 3 years of control. Probably around half of that would be from this year since his salary will go up. So he's probably expected to be worth about 9 or 10 million per year for each of the next 3 years.

    That's a pretty middling projection, and the projections clearly indicate Rogers is expected to be worth more this year. Paddack only has more value because of his years of control and cheaper salary.

    The Padres might want Rogers, but it would clearly make the Twins worse and I hope the front office isn't seriously considering trading him if Paddack is the main piece coming back.

    I would also hope that someone like Winder or Balazovic could at least perform similarly to Paddack in 2023 and 2024, so I don't really see why the front office should be so interested in Paddack's value those years. He seems like a mid rotation arm at best.  They have about half a dozen prospects in AA and AAA that project to be somewhere around there.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    PseudoSABR

    PseudoSABR 4,815

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    13 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

    The Padres don’t need a quarterback, so I’m sure Rodgers is not coming to them in a trade. 
     

    C’mon people, spelling names isn’t that hard. 

    I take exception to this.  It's not a matter of effort, which your post implies, nor is it a matter of lack or respect or whatever.  Some people's brains, like mine, don't discern errors because our brains fix them on the fly.  I have typos, misspellings and missing words because of this in everything I write.  And somehow I've managed to have three degrees in English, and one in law, having taught more than a 1000 students how to write.   Sure, proofreading helps prevent this, but for one line posts, it's not worth calling out.  

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    roger

    roger 3,369

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    2 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

    I just can't see any scenario where the Twins deal Rogers. Doesn't make any sense.

    You are right Chief.  Which means he will probably be gone by the morning.  My question is what could the return be for Rogers AND Larnach.  Can’t see Larnach not being in the deal as he was pulled from tonight’s starting lineup?

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 41,021

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    3 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

    I take exception to this.  It's not a matter of effort, which your post implies, nor is it a matter of lack or respect or whatever.  Some people's brains, like mine, don't discern errors because our brains fix them on the fly.  I have typos, misspellings and missing words because of this in everything I write.  And somehow I've managed to have three degrees in English, and one in law, having taught more than a 1000 students how to write.   Sure, proofreading helps prevent this, but for one line posts, it's not worth calling out.  

    I can promise I put effort into things not on a sport's message board....

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    2wins87

    2wins87 1,226

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    18 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

    The Padres don’t need a quarterback, so I’m sure Rodgers is not coming to them in a trade. 
     

    C’mon people, spelling names isn’t that hard. 

    I'll never understand how this misspelling is still so common after Rogers has been with the Twins 6 years.

    There is literally only one famous "Rodgers" for the dozens of famous "Rogers" in film, television, sports, or whatnot.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    nicksaviking

    nicksaviking 26,755

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    5 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

    I'll never understand how this misspelling is still so common after Rogers has been with the Twins 6 years.

    There is literally only one famous "Rodgers" for the dozens of famous "Rogers" in film, television, sports, or whatnot.

    And Hammerstein carried that collaboration anyway.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    Richmond Dude

    Richmond Dude 86

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

    Who says no?

    Rogers, Larnach, Sanchez

    San Diego catcher (any of their top three), Paddock, Hosmer, minor league player in the top ten...

     

     

     

    Trading Sanchez away is probably the most certain way to ensure that he regains his form and even makes the All-Star game.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    jorgenswest

    jorgenswest 5,941

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Just now, Richmond Dude said:

    Trading Sanchez away is probably the most certain way to ensure that he regains his form and even makes the All-Star game.

    Even in a bad year for him Sanchez had a DRC+ last year of 106. Garver was 110. DRC+ takes into account the quality of opposing pitchers a batter has faced. Sanchez performance against those pitchers was 6% better than league. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    AlwaysinModeration

    AlwaysinModeration 4,343

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    17 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

    I just can't see any scenario where the Twins deal Rogers. Doesn't make any sense.

    “Hey Derek, I hear you are looking for SP, I need a starting OF.  How about Paddack for Larnach?”

    ”Hey AJ, that’s sounds possible, although Paddack had a down year.  Would like more pitching than that.  You sent Gore down to Single A last year, but he could still turn it around.  Could be included?”

    ”I’d have a hard time parting with Gore, even after last year.  I’d need a good reliever.  Would you throw in Rogers?”

    ”Oof, you’re killing.  Hang on, let me call you back.”

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    nicksaviking

    nicksaviking 26,755

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    I like the thought but with the Twins off until Friday I don’t think that would matter.

    But there’s no deal yet so it could be a fluid situation and the Twins just made sure all possible parts were in play. Party A, “How about Larnach?” Party B, “Well what about Kepler instead?”

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    howeda7

    howeda7 2,817

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    This trade might have made sense in December. But saying you're contending and then trading your closer the day before opening day for a non-sure thing starter is just bizarre and does not help you in 2022 even if it's a good trade long-term. If they're trying to win in 2022, this is foolish. If they're not trying to win in 2022, fine, but then WTF were the last 3 weeks about.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    howeda7

    howeda7 2,817

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    14 minutes ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

    “Hey Derek, I hear you are looking for SP, I need a starting OF.  How about Paddack for Larnach?”

    ”Hey AJ, that’s sounds possible, although Paddack had a down year.  Would like more pitching than that.  You sent Gore down to Single A last year, but he could still turn it around.  Could be included?”

    ”I’d have a hard time parting with Gore, even after last year.  I’d need a good reliever.  Would you throw in Rogers?”

    ”Oof, you’re killing.  Hang on, let me call you back.”

    Yes, I'll include my closer for a pitcher in A ball. We're in win now mode!

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    Riverbrian

    Riverbrian 32,096

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

    I like the thought but with the Twins off until Friday I don’t think that would matter.

    But there’s no deal yet so it could be a fluid situation and the Twins just made sure all possible parts were in play. Party A, “How about Larnach?” Party B, “Well what about Kepler instead?”

    The Padres should have tough 40 man considerations like we do and they have Abrams still hanging around not on the 40 man. 
    They have lots of OF prospects but need a big leaguer OF NOW,

    Larnach doesn’t fit that need an OF now plus he would occupy a 40 man spot.
     

    Kepler or Kiriloff would be what the Padres want. I assume of course. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    LewFordLives

    LewFordLives 830

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    What's Paddock worth straight up? I don't think I would even give them Larnach. Paddock is young and controllable, but he's also been terrible the last two seasons. I would rather see Winder get a chance. (Yesterday was the first time I saw Winder pitch. Count me in as one of the true believers.).    They don't need Paddock. The guys at St Paul would give the Twins a better chance to win 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites


    Join the conversation

    You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
    Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

    Guest
    Add a comment...

    ×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

      Only 75 emoji are allowed.

    ×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

    ×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

    ×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

    Loading...
    ×

×
×
  • Create New...